Gurus o’ Gold: Nomination Day (Page 1 of 2)
Rank | Last Chart | best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 |
The Shape of Water |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 88 | |||
2 | 1 |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 79 | |||
3 | 2 |
Lady Bird |
3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 68 | |||
4 | 4 |
Get Out |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 61 | |||
5 | 5 |
Dunkirk |
5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 57 | |||
6 | 12 |
Phantom Thread |
6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 38 | |||
7 | 7 |
Call Me By Your Name |
8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36 | |||
8 | 8 |
Darkest Hour |
7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 36 | |||
9 | 6 |
The Post |
9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Guillermo Del Toro The Shape of Water |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 44 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Christopher Nolan Dunkirk |
2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 33 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Greta Gerwig Lady Bird |
3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 26 | ||||
4 | 5 |
Jordan Peele Get Out |
4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 20 | ||||
5 |
Paul Thomas Anderson Phantom Thread |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Frances McDormand Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 48 | |||
2 | 2 |
Saoirse Ronan Lady Bird |
3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 39 | |||
3 | 3 |
Sally Hawkins The Shape of Water |
2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 | ||||
4 | 4 |
Margot Robbie I, Tonya |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 23 | |||
5 | 5 |
Meryl Streep The Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 12 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Gary Oldman Darkest Hour |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | |||||
2 | 2 |
Timothee Chalamet Call Me By Your Name |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 31 | |||||
3 | 3 |
Daniel Day Lewis Phantom Thread |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 25 | |||||
4 | 4 |
Daniel Kaluuya Get Out |
4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | |||||
5 | 7 |
Denzel Washington Roman J Israel, Esq |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 45 | ||||
2 | 1 |
Willem Dafoe The Florida Project |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Richard Jenkins The Shape of Water |
4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 23 | ||||
4 | 5 |
Woody Harrelson Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | ||||
5 | 6 |
Christopher Plummer All The Money In The World |
5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Allison Janey I Tonya |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 43 | ||||
2 | 1 |
Laurie Metcalf Lady Bird |
2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | ||||
3 | 6 |
Leslie Manville Phantom Thread |
4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 | ||||||
4 | 5 |
Mary J Blige Mudbound |
3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | ||||
5 | 4 |
Octavia Spencer The Shape of Water |
5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Lady Bird |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 36 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Get Out |
3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 35 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 34 | ||||
4 | 4 |
The Shape of Water |
4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | ||||
5 | 6 |
The BIg Sick |
6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Call Me By Your Name |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 44 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Mudbound |
1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 31 | ||||
3 | 4 |
Molly's Game |
3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 | ||||
4 | 3 |
The Disaster Artist |
5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | ||||
5 | 6 |
Logan |
4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 |
Rank | Last Chart | Foreign Language Oscar Noms | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
A Fantastic Woman |
1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 34 | |||||
2 |
The Square |
3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | |||||
3 |
Loveless |
2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 25 | |||||
4 |
The Insult |
4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21 | |||||
5 |
On Body And Soul |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
Rank | Last Chart | Documentary Feature | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Faces Places |
1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | |||||
2 |
Icarus |
2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 30 | |||||
3 |
Strong Island |
4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 20 | |||||
4 |
Last Men in Aleppo |
3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | |||||
5 |
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
Rank | Last Chart | Animated Feature | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Coco |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | |||||
2 |
The Breadwinner |
3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 29 | |||||
3 |
Loving Vincent |
2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 26 | |||||
4 |
The Boss Baby |
4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | |||||
5 |
Ferdinand |
5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
Looks like a couple of Nathaniel R’s Supporting Actress votes got dropped, which throws off the results. His #1,2 and 4 picks are there, but not 3 and 5. Presumably, Manville would move into third place if this were corrected.
The Best Picture ranking is almost certainly wrong, based on the history of the last 11 years.
The simplest thing you can do is look at what the best film of the year was *according to film critics,* per the year-end lists compiled at criticstop10.com. It turns out that the tastes of critics and Academy members correlate very strongly.
Here’s how each Best Picture winner fared in #1 rankings, among the nominees.
The Departed, 1st
No Country for Old Men, 1st
Slumdog Millionaire, 1st
The Hurt Locker, 1st
The King’s Speech, 5th (see below for 1 through 4)
The Artist, 2nd to The Tree of Life
Argo, 2nd to Zero Dark Thirty
12 Years a Slave, 1st
Birdman, 2nd to Boyhood
Spotlight, 2nd to Mad Max: Fury Road
Moonlight, 1st
The years where the #2 movie bested the #1 are all easy to explain. The Tree of Life was hated by most of the people who didn’t love it (as evidenced by its 6.8 IMDB rating, shockingly low for a Best Picture nominee). Zero Dark Thirty was politically controversial, and Argo may have been helped by Affleck’s directorial snub. Boyhood was beaten by Birdman, a film about actors. And Mad Max earned it’s #1 because of astonishing action sequences and sci-fi production design.
The King’s Speech is the only film to not rank 1st or 2nd, and it was such obvious Oscar bait that it may have been hurt in the rankings. Its victory over The Social Network was a product of marketing (the films ranked 2 through 4 were Inception, Black Swan, and Winter’s Bone, none credible winners).
This year the clear #1 film is Get Out, and the clear #2 is Lady Bird. The Shape of Water is at present one critic behind Call Me By Your Name, but I suspect it would rank 3rd if the Village Voice had published their annual poll. Three Billboards is 6th, just behind Phantom Thread.
The only credible winners, in order, are Lady Bird, Get Out, and The Shape of Water. I’d love to see the latter win, but given that LOTR: ROTK is the only fantastic film to have won, it would be a huge upset, much bigger than last year’s.