Weekend Estimates by Studio Disinterest Klady
Aside from Padmaavat, the Indian film on 324 screens and kicking ass within that niche market as films do every week, and a 1-sceeen release by Strand of Have A Nice Day, and a couple 2 screen releases, there are no per-screens to find that drew over $6500 per. That sucks.
The only upside is that a lot of the holdovers are having per-screens long into their run that are a bit higher than expected. There are no per-screens under $1300 in the Top 25.
Oscar expansions did show improvement, but nothing remotely explosive. The top winner is The Shape of Water, which also had the widest expansion of the Best Picture nominees. All 9 nominees are now in the marketplace, as Dunkirk and Get Out are having Oscar re-releases.
The last 9 years of the 5+ nominee history suggests that we look to the bottom half of this list for a winner… but of course, rules are made to be broken.
Add in the editing and directing “rules,” and it has to be either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards. But again… one never knows.
The Greatest Showman continues to amaze and now seems guaranteed to pass La La Land domestically, though it won’t catch the worldwide ($446m). The next target is Chicago‘s $171 million domestic and $307 million worldwide.
12 Strong is a misfire at the box office that should have done better. It has the story. It has the celebrity. It should have had a strong audience in middle America. Instead, meh. Was it a result of the churn at WB? Perhaps. It was not going to be American Sniper, but it should have done better than this.
Poor Last Jedi… only $611 million domestic. Only $1.3 billion worldwide. How can they deal with all this rejection?
The Disaster Artist is over $20 million, making it the second straight year that young A24 is over $20m domestic on 2 movies with one of those movies setting the new record for the company at the box office.
In the first four weeks of 2018, Sony has grossed more domestically than in the first five months of 2017.
Bummed that they didn’t get Dunkirk back out on more IMAX screens. Such a glorious experience and I would have loved to see it that way one last time.
Wouldn’t the directing “rule” mean it CANT be three billboards?
Dave, how do you deal with all of that rejection? You take the “Star Wars” out of Solo, and hope you can sell it to China! I mean, that happened. We do not need to go down that rabbit hole again, but SW not being popular with minorities in the US, and not winning in China is a problem.
DPW: tell that to Ang Lee.
DPW:
“Argo”?
I know that that rule has been broken before (and so has the editing one) but Dave’s statement that the directing rule means it has to be three billboards or shape of water seemed like it was forgetting to that three billboards wasn’t nominated for director this year.
Are there some statistics for Star Wars not being popular with minorities?
“12 Strong is a misfire at the box office that should have done better.”
Pro tip – Do not hire Chris Hemsworth to sell your movie if he isn’t carrying a hammer.
Yeah I’m not sure anyone expected 12 Strong to much more..it may even be exceeding expectations. The cast is well known but has never sold a movie
I know it was done to include more popular movies but the expansion of the number of Oscar nominees has been a failure. it used to be the Oscar nominations narrowed the field since even the general public knew what films were Oscar bait during the fall and holidays. Now it’s such a large list that the public seems to shrug their shoulders. Plus as others have written, it leads to more of the same being included
No movie that didn’t get a SAG Ensemble nomination has won Best Picture since Braveheart and no December release has won since Million Dollar Baby so Shape will throw those two stats out the window if it wins. That would be fine with me. I was happy Birdman won so I would never again have to hear Sasha Stone or Pete Hammond or any of the others mention that editing stat for the millionth time.
I’d like to repeat Pete B’s question to IO.
“Are there some statistics for Star Wars not being popular with minorities?”
Total agree with Heather about the expansion being a failure. It cheapens it somehow. Not that I watch the Oscars anymore but the whole season is so boring now.
BD, there was some crowd stats from opening weekend, and out of the people seeing TLJ. Only 9% African American. I am not sure how to check if it got better over the following weeks, but that stat bummed me out. Star Wars, shouldn’t just be for white people. It also sucks, that China isn’t on board, but the irony is once again fitting. You diss the prequels. The SW people in China know. Well, you get absolutely nothing from the region.
“Pro tip – Do not hire Chris Hemsworth to sell your movie if he isn’t carrying a hammer.”
That’s one of the great ironies of the modern mega-franchises like Marvel. It can make people very famous…and then they can’t open so much as a phone book away from it. Yes I know, Scarlett, there was a minute there…Lucy…and? Concept is king. Put RDJ in Sherlock you make a mint. Put him in the Judge? Flop-o-rama. People just don’t go to see “celebrities” anymore unless they’re into the concept. No wonder Hemsworth is interested in more Thor.
Last Jedi draws to a close. Who knows? A fair bit lower than many pundits projected ($1.7 billion seemed to be their average guess after the opening). Maybe they were full of sh*t, maybe the movie was disliked/not as rewatchable, maybe it was natural erosion. We will know after Episode 9 opens. *shrug*
The “Ranger Solo” thing in China though? Oh dear. Well I guess they had to try something! China does have internet access, they are going to know what this is. Bombs away! Maybe try Solo: A Resident Evil Story?
DPW, I think what DP meant is the rule is that an Oscar best picture winner needs an ACE nomination and DGA nomination.
I believe Dave was saying that when you add the editing and directing “rules” to the box office stats he listed, it suggests Shape or Three Billboards have the best shot, even if McDonagh didn’t get Oscar-nominated.
“The “Ranger Solo” thing in China though? Oh dear. Well I guess they had to try something! China does have internet access, they are going to know what this is. Bombs away! Maybe try Solo: A Resident Evil Story?”
It could be fun coming up with names to fool the public in China. How about “Too Han Too Furious”
I don’t know if it qualifies as irony, but Howard first cut his directing teeth on the precursors to Fast and Furious like Eat My Dust and Grand Theft Auto. But Solo will not have the burden of having decades of back story like Force and Jedi. Since Solo starts fresh it might have a better shot at breaking through in China.
And Greatest Showman’s legs have got to be the reason for Fox greenlighting a West Side Story remake, if people are willing to go to a mediocre musical week after week than Tony and Maria are going to blow their fuckin doors off. While I have a slight problem with remaking what is seen as a benchmark title, especially another studios canon (ie last years Ben Hur), the talent involved erases most doubts and critiques.
It’s amazing how much Greatest Showman has connected with audiences. “Average joes” absolutely LOVE this movie. Kids, parents, everyone. I haven’t seen it and don’t have a ton of interest, but it should absolutely be a wake-up call that this kind of crowd-pleasing musical entertainment still carries enormous weight with audiences.
I don’t want to see James Cameron spend his prime creative years making 12 more AVATAR films, and I don’t want to see Spielberg waste his late years needlessly remaking classic musicals. And I say that as someone who likes AVATAR and is fine with remakes.
Agree with you on Cameron, but I think Spielberg’s time is better spent on WSS (or honestly anything with Kushner) than with Ready Player One. Plus he has been itching to do a musical for awhile, “he wept when he realized there were no more worlds to conquer, wait sorry there’s another one over there!!!”
I’d like to see Spielberg and Kushner use their clout instead of on an unecessary WSS remake to wrest rights for In the Heights from Weinstein’s control and make a movie musical that is resonate today, fresh, and marketable as hell.
While there was probably a younger, more nostalgic director out there than Spielberg (JJ perhaps), I’m glad someone is tackling Ready Player One. It’s too good of a story not to make and its brand of nostalgia might not be relevant forever.
I have a question for Leydon, do you know how the fans of westerns that you interact with when writing for the magazine feel about what seems to be a steady release of VOD westerns? Whenever I drop a passing glance at a Redbox there seems to always be one or two below the radar western titles mixed in there. I am just wondering if this is a sign of pent up demand for the genre that is sort of ignored by the majors.
Somebody needs to set up a Blumhouse equivalent for Westerns, they are historically inexpensive right?
I can certainly understand Spielberg’s attraction to WSS, and doing a musical. But I’d rather see an original work from him I guess. Granted, it might turn out wonderful. But still.
I never finished Ready Player One. I could not get into it and I am exactly the right age for that kind of nostalgia. My daughter loved the book though. I’m interested in the film and hope he has taken something I found clunky and too full of exposition into a fun story.
“I don’t want to see James Cameron spend his prime creative years making 12 more AVATAR films, and I don’t want to see Spielberg waste his late years needlessly remaking classic musicals. And I say that as someone who likes AVATAR and is fine with remakes.”
James Cameron’s prime creative years were ’84 to ’94. It really sucks that we’re still being denied the restored extended version of The Abyss on Blu Ray, or indeed it being commercially available in any other format than the present cruddy non-anamorphic DVD. Flawed as it is, that movie is a tour de force and Michael Biehn just owns the works in it.
‘Sniff something, did you Ratboy?’.
Speaking of Cameron, BOM has a Untitled Lightstorm movie slated for Christmas of this year. As Battle Angel is out this summer does anyone know what this second project could be? Its entirely possible that its just a phantom placeholder for something announce long ago and never came to fruitation.
Bill, I agree there’s a heavy dosage of exposition at the top. It feels like that’s going to be the entire novel, but it isn’t; it’s just there to setup the world. If you get past it, the story is really awesome. I nearly quit too, but I’m glad I didn’t.
And it also helps if you get the audiobook read by Wil Wheaton. He not only has the nostalgia cred, but he does a fantastic job of bringing the world and multiple characters to life with his voice.
I haven’t decided yet whether I think a Spielberg/Kushner “WSS” remake (reboot?) is a good or horrible idea.
Either way, it’s destined to be the most politically correct musical Hollywood has ever made.
Since the original put even Rita Moreno in Brownface thats not a high bar to clear. What would currently hold the PC title?
Hcat: Actually, even Blumhouse has already made a western. And I agree: There is an underserved market out there. When I interviewed Kiefer Sutherland for Forsaken, he said he wished the film’s distributor would concentrate more on Middle America and less on the two coasts. That didn’t really happen, unfortunately.
The Blumhouse western: http://www.cowboysindians.com/2016/07/in-a-valley-of-violence-ti-west/
Ok. Is DUNDEE a real movie or not? Because I really really want to see it.
Palm, the book is still in my Kindle. Maybe I’ll give it another go before the movie hits.
“Is DUNDEE a real movie or not?”
Nope, it’s a commercial (probably Super Bowl?) advertising Australia tourism. Sorry to disappoint. Maybe there will be an online short film attached?
Thanks, Night Owl. It seemed way, way too good to be true. Too polished and fake. But I wanted to believe.
I really liked In a Valley of Violence. Good cast, solid story, well-directed (love Ti West).
“Either way, it’s destined to be the most politically correct musical Hollywood has ever made.”
How so? The issues of immigration and class and race were already baked into it before it was politically correct.
Not related to box office but every time I read one of these I get a twinge of nostalgic sadness.
https://movieweb.com/last-blockbuster-video-texas-closes/
Because of Spielberg and Kushner’s p.c. bona fides, Palm.
Bulldog, we have a chain in Illinois called Family Video who is still going strong, in fact after Blockbuster closed all the locations around here Family swooped in like a hermit crab.
And while there are things I miss about brick and mortar rentals, Blockbuater was just the worst.
Family Video is in Indiana & Ohio too.
In addition to good ol’ Blockbuster, we used to have a Hollywood Video. When they went out of business too, some enterprising person bought the building complete with the sign and slapped “Beauty” over “Video” and has had a “Hollywood Beauty” salon/store for a few years now.
Hmmm…Kushner, sure. But Spielberg? For every politically correct movie, there’s one that is politically incorrect (or perhaps just less politically correct).
“Less politically correct” maybe (e.g., the Japanese stereotyping in “1941”), but pretty much everything Spielberg has directed since “The Color Purple” smacks of good Hollywood Elite liberalism.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that, mind you.
I’m just worried that Spielberg and Kushner’s knee-jerk tendencies could drain the juice out of “WSS” which was always–on stage and film–a highly stylized work with little interest in conventional realism or even social realism.
The Color Purple does seem to mark a turning point of sorts. (Temple of Doom is also not particularly PC, but came before as it as well.)
But more notable is Saving Private Ryan and then later Band of Brothers. His patriotic war filmmaking became the template for conservative-leaning films. And while fighting Nazis has strangely become an important liberal cause again, at the time it wasn’t an especially PC notion.
io simply can’t help himself. Now he’s worried about the African American population’s representation of the audience of TLJ, as if it’s a real thing anyone is talking about. It’s about as relevant or meaningful as saying Tyler Perry has a white people problem. SMH.
Isn’t the point of theater and later cinema to make us think and fight against the inherent injustice of society?
If it makes you uncomfortable, even a little, isn’t that a good thing?
Why worry about something that hasn’t even been made yet. Spielberg is going into some uncharted territory but I like that he still takes risks. I’m glad he directed Ready Player One. I’m honestly looking forward to that more than Black Panther, though I’m hearing it’s good, just not as amped up about it for some reason.
Ready Player One, may make that terrible book something to behold on the screen. That’s the main reason to check it out for me. Now, bow down to King T’Challa, because he’s coming, and shit will hopefully not be the same. He’s this years Wonder Woman, because this damn country needs to be smacked in the face by… “BLACK EXCELLENCE.”
Oh yeah. I watched Iron Man yesterday, and the first thought that crossed my mind when Sam L. showed up? “The entire hot blog thought an Avengers movie would never happen.” Never cease to not crack me up.
I hope you’re right io. No joke or insult, honestly. I’m hoping Black Panther does big numbers. I loved the character in Civil War, wish he had a bigger role in that one, and of course now we’re gettting that.
*crossing fingers* Marvel Studios really hasn’t let me down except for the ok The Incredible Hulk starring Norton.
I totally missed your little quip about TLJ. It is something that has been brought up. Why did I bring it up? Don’t blame me for citing things, that are things that are out there. It bums me out and guess what? I can be bummed out by the figure, because SW should inspire everyone.
Like Black Panther, should hopefully inspire everyone.
My point was you’re making a thing about a supposed lack of black audience members at TLJ, though it’s roughy the same percentage (give or take a couple of percentage points depending on what year you’re referencing) that makes up the black population in the country to begin with. That’s like saying Tyler Perrry has a white person problem. You throw it out there without any mention of what the percentage of black audience members see of this type of movie, that type, etc. You just stop and make an assumption. It’s a symptom of how you draw conclusions based on little factual information. That’s your MO, we all get it. It’s not a “quip”, it’s just more baseless assumptions about a movie you supposedly hate yet you can’t stop talking about; fascinating stuff. Well done.
And don’t be surprised by the “audience reviews” on RT being screwy for Black Panther, this piece covers the same hacker idiots who took credit for the TLJ score:
https://www.inverse.com/article/40800-black-panther-rotten-tomatoes-dc-fan-hacker-event
Brack, this isn’t a statistical analysis class. I am not going to post the way that you would, because it’s called, Flair… WOOOOOO!!!
It’s funny that posting on a blog, makes you grumpy, because it’s supposed to be done with footnotes. Go right back to Wichita, KS with that one, sir.
And that stuff about Black Panther, screams some message board trolling, that leads to all sorts of overreactions and what not. People are trolling. If it’s real DCEU fans losing their shit, then it’s all sorts of ridiculous.
Oh yeah. Altered Carbon is wonderful. It’s a 90s FOX sci-fi with a cinematic budget. A 90s cinematic budget, but still…film budgeting!
I’m not asking for statistical analysis io, a simple link to a reputable source would suffice. You can’t even do that. The only this I could find is that the percentage of women was higher for the opening of TLJ vs TFA, there’s nothing I could bring from Google searching that even made a thing about black audiences and Star Wars. Is my search engine geared just for white ‘merica?
Excuse me Mr. Cultural Center of the Universe that is you io. We can’t all be butthurt about fictional characters and remain “sophisticated” folk such as yourself who spoil movies for themselves for a movie that works largely in part because it takes turns that were unexpected. That was your huge mistake for a so-called fan, completely ruining and tainting your viewing experience. That’s on you, not TLJ. Own it, and stop acting like a punk on the internet. You’re miserable attitude is projection, acting as if I’m grumpy, when you’re the one who can’t shut up about your butthurtness. You’re fooling no one except yourself. Give it up. But denial is a mf’er. This week it’s about TLJ and black audiences. What will io cook up next week? Tune in next week kids to find out!
Wichita, KS? Bwahahaha. What does that even mean? Flair? Your nonsensical rants just reinforce how you’re a running gag and you just think you running your fingers about your latest confabulation and presenting it as fact makes sense, but then get defensive when people call you out on your bullshit claims, with bold, strong arguments like the following:
“It’s a thing!”
“I lived it!”
“I never met anyone who didn’t like Empire!”
Those are just a few examples of how you fail to back up baseless claims or your anecdotal evidence as fact when it’s merely your myopic view of the world. You take that back to Wichita, KS. You clearly know more about that kind of thing than I do.
The Black Panther thing is brought to you by the same TLJ trolling on RT, did you even bother reading the article? I take it you didn’t, because it would have taken some mental effort on your part, and I guess that’s just above io’s time. Whatever, but don’t pretend like I don’t actually make arguments based on actual information and not just the bubble you live in.
I wrote what I wrote, to prove a point: you take things too seriously. Ric Flair. The Nature Boy. 21 time world champion. Also, the Wichita, KS line is from “All the President’s Men.” The point being: you are serious. I am not. The audience thing, is from a Grace Randolph video.
I have met someone who doesn’t like Empire, and he’s my brother. He doesn’t hate it, but it’s not a favorite of his. It’s nice that you know my interpersonal relationships, with my own brother. What’s funny though: when it’s stated to be a thing. Usually a thing. When I’ve lived it. I’ve lived it. Your hair up your ass about anecdotal evidence, is your wild hair up your own ass.
The rest of your post, I don’t care. You are so angry about absolutely nothing, that has absolutely nothing to do with me. It’s sort of goofy and sad, but you like to think you are winning. Woo.
This is a movie blog, and you aren’t my family, you aren’t a friend, and you aren’t people. You are some guy. Am I supposed to be upset over some guy, who is so delusional about me. He thinks I would create another poster to argue with him? Am I really that butthurt? Really? No. If you think I am another poster. Ask Dave. He can see ISPs, and has used it before.
And I read the article like a day or two ago. You know, because I use twitter and youtube like a normal person, and keep up on things. Much like with their bs about TLJ. This is bs as well. They are putting their garbage on top of something, because they are racist and sexist idiots. Who get really loud on the internet, because that’s how it works with these aholes.
If you take the time to read the audience reviews in the TLJ section at Rotten Tomatoes. It’s fans. A ton of fans voicing their frustration. There are some aholes. No doubt. It’s still fans voicing their frustrations, but less money than Age of Ultron, a movie that ended Joss Whedon at Marvel Studios, and completely changed that studio forever… is clear winning, and those fans are lying jerk faces.
This? This is trolling to get publicity. That’s all it is, and they were stupid enough to put it out there before hand. The quickest way to lose a fight, is to announce you are going to fight.
Oh yeah. The only person who has any butt-hurt, is you. Why? You can’t handle spoilers being posted early. I wonder what that says about you? Hold on. Google: https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/spoiler-alert-spoilers-make-you-enjoy-stories-more
You have a fun morning. I am going to finish Altered Carbon, and enjoy myself. Something I can do, because your projection of me, has zero to do with me. Wooooo!!!
Here I thought “Wichita” was a nod to Seven Nation Army by The White Stripes.
Do do do do do do doooo
{And not everyone likes spoilers.}
You were the one that made up the lack of black audiences and was “concerned”, not just me called bullshit on you. You made the first comment genuius, not me. Get with the program.
I called bullshit. You are embarrassed you got called on it, and deflect and say I’m too serious. Why even bring up such an inane topic? Quite the mystery there. And now you’re just being an ass by not owning up to anything.
You lived what io, you lived your life? Yes. And? There’s no point to the claim. We all live lives. That’s why I pointed out how nonsensical your comment was.
I never claimed to know your relationship with your own brother, you’re imagining things once again. I paraphrased your anecdotal evidence that you spout as fact. Didn’t know you had a brother, don’t care.
I suggested you were posing as another user since that was the only person silly enough to chime in to agree that your points had any bearing with the topic at hand. A joke, and you say I’m so serious. Passive aggressive much?
Fake wrestling champion references, to project your own anger/irritation and claim it as mine? Not gonna work, try again.
You’re right about one thing: you’re not serious. You’re a joke. I seriously wanted an answer, one you still failed to answer and support with any evidence, which all you are accomplishing is a made up race issue that you should be ashamed for even making up.
Project and deflect the io way. Can I sign up for your seminar for irreverent references that you use to think you’re clever and not answer simple questions? Why do you even post what you do, just like the look of your words on this blog? That seems about right.
You claim you can’t post anything. Sure you can, but if it’s bullshit, people will call you out on your bullshit. Don’t you get that by now? Nah, you’d rather play a victim or make it seem like I’m winning some argument with a butthurt fanboy. I pity you, I don’t want to fight you, but if you spew bullshit, expect people to call you out on it. It’s not rocket science.
CinemaScore, the only true polling of any value, came up with an A for TLJ. RT is not valid for drawing general audience conclusions. Other websites like IMDB have it at 75%. You ignore any data that doesn’t go with your failed argument. I’m done talking about simple things like this with you because you’re about as thick as a brick wall when it comes to any substantial evidence or the ability to draw conclusions in a logical way. You just aren’t capable.
Let me get this through your thick skull: I WASN’T SPOILED. I didn’t read any spoilers. YOU did. Your confabulations are getting the best of you. I recommend you seek professional help because you have a very thin grasp of reality or at the very least love to revise what you have stated before. Ever think about joining Trump’s staff?
So I’m supposed to like getting spoiled? Well how’d that work out for you io? Oh wait, it didn’t. That professor is a crackpot idiot. I can see why you referenced it. That must have been the most ridiculous “study” I’ve ever heard about. If that’s your “proof” then you are a bigger lightweight than I ever imagined.
A waste of space. Poor io. Enjoy relishing in box office reports for movies as validation for the work done in Black Panther. Till next time kiddo.
I’ll bet this debate is fascinating.
Yancy, thanks for always being a great poster. You discuss movies and stuff. It’s fun. I’m not even reading it. He’s just [hand over head symbolizing airplane motion]. Sorry for the interruption folks. Have a good Saturday.
Yes yancy, you get the seal of approval from io. It’s not fascinating at all, same old io/JS unpleasantness who has the emotional and intellectual capacity of a 10 year old. Nothing new to see here.
And io lies when he says he doesn’t read. Not fooling anyone bucko.
Brack, I don’t care about your pointless words. It doesn’t matter, but you just have to stick it to me. If it makes you feel like a big man, then go right ahead. You’re just…?
Brack: Years ago, when I was interviewing Mickey Rourke — who, by the way, is a graciously polite man in person — told me that he never reads reviews. A few minutes later, he proceeded to quote, verbatim and at length, a Los Angeles Times review of Year of the Dragon that really pissed him off. I already had my doubts about people who claimed to never read comments about them. But that incident pushed me from agnostic to skeptic.
Joe – I appreciate the reply. I was starting to feel like the Will Ferrell character from Zoolander:
https://youtu.be/ilcRS5eUpwk
Anyway, I know he’s a lost cause, all I asked for was a source about the lack of black audiences and Star Wars, and io instantly goes into “woe is me” mode, or “it makes you feel like a big man” nonsense by never answering for anything he states.
Some things never change. Why I keep giving him a shot, I have no idea. A gluttton for punishment? Perhaps.
It’s like another reality.
Guys. Stop. Or you will both be suspended.