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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Deadklad 2


Deadpool 2 is the biggest not-first-weekend-of-May May opening. Ever.

The previous top in this category was Shrek 3, which was part of the Triple Trilogy summer of 2007, which also owns the Memorial Day record with Pirates 3 at $115 million, which gives Solo a target for next weekend.

That summer, 11 years ago, inspired a lot of the Chicken Little-ing we’re getting about theatrical these days. It turned out that 2007 was the first $4 billion summer, which has led to $4 billion every summer since (except last summer). Similarly, 2007 came the year after 2006 failed to match the then all-time high summer of 2004… thus, the falling sky.

And even if Solo is soft next weekend, it will surely best $100m, making this only the second summer in history to have three $100m+ openings by the end of May. (Yes, I am counting Avengers.)

But keep obsessing on Netflix’s claim of 80 “movies” this year. That must be the important story in film this year. Now quick… name a Netflix movie that came out this year.

Did it take you 5 seconds? 10 seconds? Have you come up with a title?

I love Netflix. I am happy they are spending. I am glad to watch their films. But they are not important to the current or future theatrical business at this time. They have raised some of the prices for films at festivals, which makes festival buying less attractive for indies, but that’s a blip. Five years ago, there were other market forces. Remember, Hamlet 2 happened without streaming.

Anyway… Deadpool 2 is fine. Paramount has to be underwhelmed by Book Club’s launch. I think it and Life of the Party suffered from being back-to-back and seeming so niched as being about older women getting their grooves back. Both needed another marketing gear. And nice per-screen on 4 for First Reformed.

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51 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Deadklad 2”

  1. JS Partisan says:

    We all know, that your sequel is supposed to open larger than your prodecessor. It’s a different time of year though. DP2 is opening in China, so that could help the bottom line. This all leads back to what I’ve been harping on all year. What’s DP2 about? I know what it’s about. I saw the movie, but not one flipping ad sold what the movie is. This leads to people seeing the trailers, and rightly thinking, “Well. I already saw that movie. This doesnt look like anything new.” When DP2 is better than it’s predecessor in every way.

    Marvel Studios gets the benefit of the doubt, and they’ve earned it. Every other property and new franchise need to explain what the hell is happening in their trailers. That’s where we are right now, and while it’s not great. Audiences have way too much on their plates to stop and see any movie, that doesn’t explain itself.

    Dave, Netflix is Hollywood in one box. Stop diminishing it. You were wrong. It happens. Hello my Sherlock vs Avatar prediction!

  2. Heather says:

    DP2 opened lower largely because the first had the benefit of a holiday weekend..seeing no loss of business between Saturday and Sunday. Of course it had more momentum as well since it was such a fresh take and people were excited about it. DP2 is fine but Id rather see Infinity War a 3rd time rather than DP2 a second.

  3. movieman says:

    “RBG” is turning into quite the little-engine-that-could.
    Good for Magnolia.

    Saw “Book Club” at an SRO matinee today. Yes, the audience was primarily female and over 50: so what?, right?
    Love the four lead actresses, but the material is clearly beneath them. (Viagra jokes? “50 Shades” jokes? Sigh.)
    Not actively unpleasant, but hardly the “special event” it should’ve been w/ those ladies.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Wondering if there has been any other time where an actor has played the bad guy in the top two movies at the box office as Brolin has now done. Or even two in the top 10 for that matter.

  5. leahnz says:

    ‘“RBG” is turning into quite the little-engine-that-could.
    Good for Magnolia.’

    yay! no-to-ri-ous RBG great flick
    (eat lots of kale and such, ruth, we need you now more than ever)

  6. Doug R says:

    Deadpool 2 did open on a holiday weekend…in Canada. Monday numbers should be about 10% higher than usual.
    Super Troopers 2 actually went up this weekend? After losing 900 screens? Must have been some cheap fans waiting for the second run houses and maybe some fans catching it before or after DP2.

  7. Thorough Henry says:

    @bulldog68 I believe that X2 and Davinci Code opened on back-to-back weekends, and both featured Ian McKellan as a villain.

  8. That Guy says:

    Poland, you do remember there was a Netflix Superbowl promotion for that shitty Cloverfield Paradox movie right? Bad year to say nobody remembers any of their movies.

  9. movieman says:

    Didn’t the first “Deadpool” open on a 4-day (President’s Day) holiday weekend?
    Wasn’t its “better-than-Deadpool 2” opening a 4-day vs. 3-day number?

  10. brack says:


    Four day gross was $152m. Three day was $132m.

  11. LBB says:

    I remember THE OPEN HOUSE. Unfortunately.

  12. palmtree says:

    “(Yes, I am counting Avengers.)”

    I appreciate that, DP. Truly do.

  13. leahnz says:

    speaking of RBG, another epic dissent from the bench (which shouldn’t have been necessary, of course; you’re so fucked USA, better pull your heads out and start fighting like hell to save your country being pillaged by greedy, illegitimate mobbed-up authoritarian fuckwits and sadists, no one’s gonna save you but you, never mind taking the rest of us down with you in a blaze of orange radioactive dust, screw you)

  14. David Poland says:

    Uh, That Guy… do you know a single person who has mentioned the Cloverfield Paradox outside of the circumstances of it being released on Netflix since Feb 15? Anyone?


  15. David Poland says:

    JSP… what are you on about? What am I supposed to be wrong about?

  16. movieman says:

    Thanks for the info, Brack.
    That doesn’t bode well then, does it?
    Esp with “Solo” nipping at its tails.

  17. JS Partisan says:

    David. You’re wrong about Netflix, and a lot of people watched the Cloverfield Paradox after the Superbowl. You can’t hand wave away Netfkix and how important it is. The way it has changed from when you started railing against it to now. Demonstrates how wrong you were about it.

  18. movieman says:

    Speaking of Netflix, has anybody seen “Cargo”?
    Sounds like just another zombie movie, but I’m open to watching if it’s worthwhile.

  19. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Cargo starts out strong, with a compelling eerie tone and some decent visuals. It was reminding me of Gareth Edwards’ underrated ‘Monsters’. Then there’s a plot detour around halfway through involving a mysterious new character, which I just didn’t buy and the movie has to work hard to recover from. Worth a watch, but a definite one-and-done.

  20. Stella's Boy says:

    Cloverfield Paradox had weak numbers.

    Does Netflix really know what they’re doing with their movies? Yes they have a lot of content, but they are quietly dumping so many of them. Earlier this month they dropped new Andrew Niccol and Blumhouse movies on the same day, but you’d barely know it. Those are hardly exceptions. I’m not saying Netflix isn’t important, but when it comes to movies they seem to be floundering a bit.

  21. JS Partisan says:

    SB, no. Five million people is a lot in this world, so that’s pretty damn good. There are these things called FILM YouTube and Twitter, and they went off about that film.

    Also, Netflix has a pretty active YouTube account, make active trailers for everything, but Netflix isn’t about what they have. It’s about what they are. What are they? A place where you can find a lot of stuff to watch. Like the Korean cop show I was watching earlier, or that Blumhouse movie.

  22. movieman says:

    Thanks, Wally. I’ll probably give it a look this weekend.

    Btw, what was the Blumhouse that recently premiered on Netflix? I may have already seen it, but didn’t make (or have forgotten) a Blum connection.

    Mind-blowing that Alfonso Cuaron’s latest–his follow-up to an Oscar win for “Gravity”–is a “Netflix Movie.”

    P.S.= I’m probably the only person in the world who didn’t hate “Coverfield Paradox.” I actually thought it was…OK. Which is pretty much how I felt about the original “Cloverfield.” (The middle “Clover,” of course, was in a class by itself.)

  23. Stella's Boy says:

    Stephanie is the Blumhouse movie. Not sure why you have to be condescending JS. No call for it. I know how many people watched it. The story I linked to says the numbers were OK at best. Does the fact that they have a ton of content disprove David’s beefs with them? What good is all the content if no one knows or cares? Pardon me if I find your evidence wanting. I did see lots of hating of Paradox on Twitter if that’s what you mean.

  24. movieman says:

    Are you sure that’s the full title, SB?

    The only “Stephanie” that came up was a “DVD Only” direct-to-home video of the same name from a few years back.

    The last “Netflix Movie” I watched was that 2017 John Woo actioner from a few weeks back which was just OK. (The Niccol movie was only so-so, too, and I actually liked “Simone” and “In Time.”)

  25. Stella's Boy says:

    You’re right. There is a Blumhouse movie called Stephanie that’s VOD right now but the Blumhouse Netflix movie is Family Blood. They make a lot of movies.

  26. leahnz says:

    i think the ‘stephanie’ SB means is the one with the wee girl in the house alone and the grillo-pad plays her beleaguered dad (can’t remember who was the mum — it wasn’t bad, interesting premise but low rent. probably cost about two dollar fifty to produce and it showed. the girl who plays the lead is quite good)

  27. leahnz says:

    are those BO stats for ‘the rider’ good? hope so

    ETA can’t wait to see ‘hereditary’

    ETA 2: also how does an absolute piece of irredeemable shit like ‘dark crimes’ get a US theatrical release in this current climate? who finagled that, seems bogus

  28. JS Partisan says:

    SB, I wasn’t being condescending. I don’t know why you always think I am, when you always do to me. Which means… We both think we condescend to one another. That’s funny. Nevertheless, I wasn’t being condescending and Blum is putting some hurry sci-fi film on Netflix. I’m excited for that one.

  29. Stella's Boy says:

    It sure comes across that way JS. There’s a reason why I always think that. It’s not for kicks and I’d prefer not to. But hey whatever The Terror holy shit what a great show.

  30. JS Partisan says:

    SB, re-read ing it? I can see where you would think that it’s condescending, but I’m just trying to explain a point. Ive referenced things before that people here do not use, so I’m writing as if you have no idea what I’m talking about. My thing is, why are you constantly thinking I’m talking down to you? This has been a thing between us forever, and I’ve never understood it. Especially, when I’ve never thought less of you for being a horror fan,. You you surely think I’m a lesser movie fan. It’s whatever, but I’m not condescending to anyone. Seriously. Don’t think I’m ever taking down to you, because that’s rude :D.

    I’m personally looking forward to Steve and Larson vs Stowaway Bear. I also wish, that people watched Westworld without having to SOLVE EVERY LITTLE STORY THREAD! It’s a show! Not Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego!

  31. movieman says:

    OK, I’ll add “Family Blood” to my streaming queue, SB. Thanks for the follow-up.

    In the current Darwinian theatrical climate for American indies, I’d call “The Rider” a modest win, Leah.
    Sure, I would have loved for it to done even better (ditto the similarly glorious “Lean on Pete”), but it’s become increasingly difficult for anything to truly break out these days. Even the most worthy titles get lost in the din.
    Too many options for viewing/streaming; too many films period.

  32. Chucky says:

    In a world of brand-name movies, the whole arthouse scene has become one big clusterfark. Sony mishandled “The Rider” by not taking it mainstream in the West, the Southwest, or the Plains states. Magnolia rushed “RBG” and is paying for it with downgraded bookings in megaplexes. Focus has 2 disasters this month alone; “Tully” bombed and the Pope Francis documentary has tanked.

  33. Stella's Boy says:

    Let me know how it is if you watch it movieman. I’ve been on the fence about it. It is a clusterfark Chucky. We have two Landmark Theatres here with a total of five screens between them. They have been playing blockbusters which limits what arthouse fare they show and for how long. As a result things get scheduled to open here but then never do, or they end up sticking around for a week before disappearing.

  34. Hcat says:

    I agree that SPC’s slow roll can be maddening, but I am confident they know what they are doing. Its likely the marketing buy to get people in the seats would be too much of an outlay for what it would bring in by going semi-wide. Plus semi-wide is where you correctly noted that Focus is getting KILLED this year, not just the current two releases but Thoroughbreds and Entebbe this spring.

    I have heard nothing but magnificent things about The Rider but convincing a multiplex in Oklahoma to give up one of its screens in one of the busiest windows of the year to something without national marketing budget is going to be a tough sell. It is a shame that Landmark was devised as a way to counter this dedicating their screens and tried to get people to make small films a part of their media diet only to end up playing Deadpool like everyone else.

    As for what Leah said about the lead of Stephanie, I haven’t seen a lot of Blum’s stuff but he does have an eye for young female talent. He gave Benoit her break in Whiplash and in a proper functioning Hollywood Happy Death Day would lead to a ton of opportunities for that actress.

  35. Chucky says:

    AMC, Cinemark, and Regal wouldn’t have a problem playing “The Rider” in Oklahoma. It’s the releasing company that has the problem.

    The 2 Focus releases I cited opened in New Jersey day-and-date with Manhattan. “Tully” was a wide release and Pope Francis was a limited release. Both pictures playing upmarket/arthouse.

  36. Hcat says:

    The film has no stars and no advertising. The people that are seeing it are seeking it out based on write ups they find in newspapers and online. The six people in Lincoln Nebraska who read the New Yorker will not provide enough incentive for a theater to screen it there.

  37. JS Partisan says:

    Netflix is now more viable than Disney. Again, Dave, you were wrong about them. Also, they should buy Fox. It makes the most sense.

  38. EtGuild2 says:

    The problem with the Disney-Fox acquisition, and why they might lose, has more to do with TV. Creating a monolithic sports coverage entity in this country is a problem. ESPN and FOX Sports + ABC + Fox = 85% of the sports viewing audience in the US. Also, too much crossover of local affiliates, specialty programming, etc.

    I wouldn’t mistake market cap for viability. Remember 2017, when Tesla leapt ahead of Ford and Chrysler? Or a few years back, when Chipotle cracked the Top 10 biggest food companies despite virtually zero presence outside of major cities?

    Only time will tell on Disney/Netflix. For now, Netflix has a fraction of the revenue, potential future returns/market cap be damned.

  39. Stella's Boy says:

    Other than this thread, I don’t think a Netflix movie has been discussed on this blog since early February. Yes they have tons of content and they matter, and I love Netflix. But their movies really haven’t made much of an impression or had a lasting impact. Maybe that will change.

  40. movieman says:

    Yep, SB.
    For every “Meyerowitz Stories” (#4 on my 2017 10-best list!), there’s a dozen (or more)…whatever the latest interchangeably generic “Netflix Movie” is called.

  41. JS Partisan says:

    SB, outside of the MSCU, few things from ten years ago have made a lasting impact. It bums me out, that so many films from the oughts are just gone. Netflix, have millions of people watch their films. Are you going to watch the Irishman? You sure as heck are, and that’s on Netflix. They are just getting started.

    Ethan, they aren’t getting Fox SPORTS. Disney is getting everything, but sports and news. Disney is going to get that studio, because the debt load from Comcast buying them is just too much.

  42. movieman says:

    You know what movie I’d really love to see this weekend?
    Pasolini’s “Salo: A Star Wars Story.”
    Now I bet THAT would be something we’ve never seen before.

  43. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS, incorrect. Fox Sports Regional Nets is actually the exact thing that’s holding up the entire merger. I was incorrect in that “Big Fox” sports is excluded, but Fox Sports Nets gives Disney virtually 100% control of MLB and many other sports.

  44. Hcat says:

    I have always argued with David whenever he shortchanged Netflix in the past, but at the end of the year I think we are going to looking at the massive amount of content they created with that 7 billion dollars and going “is that it?”

    Not sure what a television season costs nowadays, not to mention spending on pilots that end in the bin, but do the other studios spend close to that on content on film and television?

    I would think Warners with its two movie studios, robust television studio and HBO programming might come close. A

  45. JS Partisan says:

    HC, there is so much there, and lot of it isn’t in English. This gets glossed over, but it shouldn’t. Again, watch the Ministry of Time or Live, but you down playing all that interesting stuff they have to watch, is something I expect from a viewer of CBS, and CBS all access subscriber :D!

    Ethan, ESPN owned a lot of those networks, then sold them off. If they get them back? Better than Fox having them, and freaking MLB could use it to make them a national sport again.

  46. Hcat says:

    Netflix has done an amazing job at maintaining their dominance, and playing to a worldwide audience will help that. As for them surpassing Disney and Comcast for a day, that’s just investor overvaluation and Netflix is still very vulnerable in a Myspace type of way that many of the traditional media companies are not.

  47. Ray Pride says:

    There are hints of transgalactic perversity in SOLO, but only hints.

  48. JS Partisan says:

    See, HC. You’re making the same mistake that Dave makes in his arguments. We are past the replacing part of the internet. It’s a lot more sedentary now. Plus, do you forget Netflix already replaced the original version of itself six or so years ago? Undervaluing the place it holds in our society right now is weird.

  49. leahnz says:

    the gICEstapo operates unchecked — sadism as deliberate govt policy, children interred in dog kennel-like cages, physically and sexually abused — of the cruellest aspects of slavery in the US, forced separation of children from their parents was one of the most heinous and now history repeats, state-sanctioned, state DEMANDED — your mainstream non-blatantly-propagandist media mostly useless and complicit in the face of consolidating fascism — the opposition party mostly stuck on the ‘polite’ setting bringing Q-tips to a war with AR15-armed pathologically-lying psychopaths — what time is it USA? the fight for your soul is here, and if you don’t learn from history you’re doomed to repeat it — what’s it take to wake up from the stupor, will good people in their relative comfort succumb to evil by favouring order over justice — sieg heil hair fuhror, the building is on fire and you are seconds to disaster

  50. JS Partisan says:

    Yeah. It’s the kids. The demos for evil aren’t that great. It’s always numbers.

  51. Chucky says:

    The entertainment industry is not one supersize Monopoly board for fanboys who favor fantasy football. Look to the softer-than-expected opening for the latest Star Wars movie.

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