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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates

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32 Responses to “Friday Estimates”

  1. Doug R says:

    I found Incredibles 2 to be the nicely balanced tonally fun picture that Solo should have been.

  2. Arisp says:

    Hereditary… WTF was that?? Talk about a wasted opportunity with that dumb ending. Also the director has seen the Shining one too many times. Collette tho – hello Oscar nomination.

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    With every Pixar flick save Cars 2 & 3 going on to triple its opening weekend numbers, we could be getting our first $500m animated movie. Solo’s disappointing gross is already a distant memory.

  4. leahnz says:

    hey 1930’s germany…i mean USA…how you doin?
    just gonna stand by and let wannabe DICKtator the Marquis de Skidmarke and his cadre of corrupt bigots and crims – puppet-whispered by poutine – flush you down the gurgler without so much as a fight? who are you. the world watches aghast

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    Hereditary was building up to that ending since the first frame. It’s all there. I thought it was at least

  6. Aaron Aradillas says:

    Can AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR earn another $19.7 million in order to get to $700 million domestically?

  7. leahnz says:

    has it occurred to people that some of us haven’t seen ‘hereditary’ yet and it’s only just come out, so maybe not talk about the ending in a body odour thread, ta

  8. Bulldog68 says:

    @ Aaron, No. And it needs $40m not $19.7.

  9. Jspartisan says:

    Leah… People are waiting for elections. That’s all the answers you are going to get. Unless he fires Muller, then all the cards are off the title.

    The Avengers should chug along to beat Black Panther by like 2 bucks. It’s a good problem to have… Two possible 700 million grossers. BD, when it happens. Fain shock (▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿)

    Solo may get 200m. Yay.

    While Incredibles 2 really has to kick ass this week, because Dinosaurs are a coming. They both have to grab all that cash, because Ant-Man and Wasp are going to get theirs as well.

  10. LBB says:

    Because if he fires Mueller there will be a weekend of outrage (because he’ll be fired on a Friday) and then a week of normalization and framing it all in a way that leaves reasonable doubt to anyone who isn’t paying full attention (approx 80% of the population. Full population. Not just voting population.). Two weeks out the NYT and CNN will run stories about how maybe the govt needed to evolve more rapidly. There will be marches. It won’t matter. But the midterms will happen and hopefully change things. Or they won’t which will lead to another two years of conflict that’s good for ratings and subscriptions.

    But, leahnz, to your original point: the country that’s been farting out its amazing track record of beating down fascism and authoritarianism is currently giving a master class on how to make both Orwell and Huxley prescient geniuses.

    But some of us are good at gaming box office so at least we have that.

  11. Bulldog68 says:

    JS at this point in the cycle it’s no longer guess work. Just go to Mojo and view the showdown between the two films and you’ll see that IW won’t get there. It’s making less every day, BP gained $6m on it last week, and continues to beat it daily. IW has tougher competition to face with a very strong Incredibles and JW next weekend. It won’t even be close.

    But I’ll reiterate, this is more about BP’s phenomenal performance and not about IW’s. By every measure it’s an out of the park home run.

    The only thing left to see is whether The Return of Thanos will get there.

  12. movieman says:

    How the hell did “A Wrinkle in Time” do a $3,061 PSA Friday on 245 screens?
    Aren’t the few remaining theaters showing it second-run bargain houses?
    I know Disney would dearly love to take “Wrinkle” to $100-million (it’s a million shy at this post-home vid release point), but seriously.

    P.S.= Agree totally w/ LBB’s jaundiced take on “What would happen if POSOTUS fires Mueller?” Normalization of the freakishly abnormal has been MSM’s mission statement from the start of the 2016 campaign–at least in regards to their kid gloves coverage of Trump. Which is precisely how we got into the pickle we’re in.

  13. palmtree says:

    We’ve been building toward this moment for a long time, slowly eroding different democratic institutions until we are completely powerless to stop this. I mean, what’s been happening is so systematic it’s shocking that people still think it’s shocking. Democracy requires people who can separate fact from bullshit, but they can’t do that if you take away their education, feed them propaganda and fear, and lie to them with impunity. We could get rid of the guy at the top, but even then the entire system that supported his rise would still exist and would prop up another person like him. At this point if the November vote didn’t change at least who controls Congress, then I’d say there’s a good chance we’re watching some of the worst parts of history repeat itself.

  14. Night Owl says:

    “Solo’s disappointing gross is already a distant memory.”

    For Disney? Sure. For Lucasfilm it sure as hell better not be. No one is going to convince me that “weak marketing” and “poor release date” explains why it is struggling to do a third of Rogue One’s business in Star Wars friendly foreign markets like the UK, France, and Australia. A THIRD! In Germany it is worse. Word of mouth did nothing. Just a total rejection. A perfect storm.

    On the marketing side someone did point out pictures to me the other day showing that for the past red carpet premieres in Japan they dressed John Boyega, Adam Driver, and Diego Luna like movie stars, and then poor Alden like a high school history teacher. WTF Lucasfilm PR? He’s Han Solo…allegedly.

    Although I will say if there are worse posters for a major movie this yeas than Tag’s, I haven’t seen them.

  15. Doug R says:

    Manafort’s in the can, Cohen’s lawyers just quit and he’s probably about to flip, Nunes may get indicted and ripping children from their parents is proving to be extrememly unpopular.
    Sure trump’s “approval” is around 87% among his party, but that party keeps shrinking-the liars that voted for him will happily state in a few years that they “never voted for him”.
    You can write to Paul Manafort in jail, BTW
    Inmate Number 00045343
    Northern Neck Regional Jail
    PO Box 1060 Warsaw, VA 22572

  16. Dr Wally Rises says:

    “How the hell did “A Wrinkle in Time” do a $3,061 PSA Friday on 245 screens?”

    Drive In double bills with I2 I think. I said a week ago that Disney are obsessed with cooking the books to get this thing over nine figures. Why is the bigger question. My hunch is that AdV is being primed for a bigger gig at the studio. Just throwing it out there – AWIT crosses nine figures in the week that Lasseter’s chair becomes vacant. Coincidence? You decide.

  17. palmtree says:

    Wrinkle did an estimated $1.7m this past weekend. If Disney can somehow cook the books for that movie, why not do it for Black Panther? BP only needs 400k at this point to reach $700m.

    Incredibles 2 opening is being estimated at $180m. Damn, that’s amazing. Defeat doesn’t visit Disney for very long these days, does it?

    Manafort, Cohen, and Nunes might be good developments, but you also have to get rid of the lying propaganda machine telling people it’s a “witch hunt”…otherwise you have people who don’t believe it, think it’s a conspiracy, and then everyone who looks bad all get Presidential pardons so nothing happens. It’s a terrifying frightening scenario but one that is becoming more and more plausible. The vote is really our only hope.

  18. Night Owl says:

    I’m not sure why Disney would care about pushing Wrinkle in Time over $100 million domestic when it can’t even manage $33 million overseas. Are we now supposed to be impressed with your $100 million budgeted bomb? Very weird. If Ava’s bound for “bigger” things worldwide will matter most of all.

  19. palmtree says:

    Sometimes there are contractual things that kick in once the gross hits $100m or other such milestones. This is just conjecture, but there could be a situation where if it didn’t hit $100m domestically, another project could be put in jeopardy.

  20. Doug R says:

    87% of 26% is less than 23%. The fringe will always be with us.

  21. movieman says:

    Well, Disney finally did it. They got “Wrinkle” over the $100-million mark this weekend. Still don’t believe it’s a legit $100-million domestic gross.
    Next step? Taking “BP” to $700-mllion by Independence Day. Have no fear, it’s coming.

    From Bill Kristol: “One reason to be increasingly alarmed: The extent to which Trump has become more confident and unabashed in expressing, and to some degree indulging, his authoritarian tendencies.”

  22. Warren says:

    BP needs less than $400,000 to get to $700 million so that won’t be difficult. As Dr. Wally Rises said, the only way Wrinkle in Time could have made it to $100 million is if it was paired with Incredibles 2 at a few venues and was donated the gross from that double feature.

  23. Bulldog68 says:

    Here in Canada, Vancouver to be precise, we watch on in abject disbelief at the de-evolution of our neighbors to the south. And with his recent attack on Justin Trudeau, made more glaringly shocking by his embrace of Kim Jong Un, and the lies about our trade relationship, it’s all hitting home.

    Did some grocery shopping and without even having planned beforehand, I instinctively started look at country of origin to make sure it came from Canada or any other country that was not the US. And I’m not alone. There is a growing movement in Canada that is not loud, but on a simmer, and the heat is slowly rising, to boycott American made products as much as possible. To ensure that support is giving to other G7 countries that are aligned with democratic principles and basic decent human rights for all world citizens.

    Trump taught us one very important lesson, the next time a narcissistic, sexual harassing, conspiracy theorist, egomaniacal racist decscends an escalator announces his Presidency, take that shit seriously, because any idiot can vote, and the world is full of idiots.

    Don’t boo…vote.

  24. palmtree says:

    As an American I’m pretty confident there’s only one person in the entire country who hates Canada. Sure, he’s the guy at the top, but the rest of us think Canada’s great. So if you need to buy Canadian, I get it, but hopefully it’s only until we get our house in order.

  25. spassky says:

    This is a blog about movies, what’s to say some of us aren’t doing things you have no idea about, leahnz? What would you do? This is a discussion I have frequently, but not here, because it’s a silly movie blog comment thread.

    “Just throwing it out there – AWIT crosses nine figures in the week that Lasseter’s chair becomes vacant. Coincidence? You decide.”

    haha, wtf, no way. Wrinkle In Time kind of just looked horrible, I can’t imagine her doing what Lasseter did. Plenty of other people to do the job. Jennifer Lee is a much more solid choice.

  26. Night Owl says:

    I guess it looks better for Wrinkle in Time but I just cannot imagine the bonuses or any other “contractual things” for a $100 million movie kick in at just a $100 million domestic gross. That seems insane. I cannot imagine anything kicks in until $200 million at minimum. Disney’s not that generous, or crazy. Maybe it just looks a bit better?

  27. Doug R says:

    With the performance of I2, maybe Disney will put Brad Bird in the chair.

  28. Hcat says:

    If anything kicked in it would cause them to spend more in profit participation. It’s more likely that they just want to claim they have so many 100 millions in a row

  29. leahnz says:

    spassky, dearheart: if you are speaking out, organising in your community, out protesting at the child internment camps and marching in the streets, using your voice to apply daily pressure on your elected representatives to grow a spine and use their power to do what’s right, speak out loudly and publicly and craft policy and legislation to end the sadistic practices of this phony white supremacist authoritarian administration, if you are doing these things then good on ya and i’d think it’s obvious i’m not speaking to you personally and rather employing the royal ‘you’ in my observation of the state of the nation above, is it not?

    the US has a cabal of sadists now using cruelty against children interred alone in camps to extort the democratic party into using tax-payer money for their ridiculous ‘wall’, the aryan mafia is running a scam with your republic, so what the fuck are you gonna do about it. seems a crash course in authoritarianism is needed on a massive scale, though it may be too late

    (reading the insights above, what’s most striking is the assumption that in Nov you will have free and fair elections. given the craven, in-yer-face sadistic behaviour and alignment with depots of Hair Furor and his cabal of disgusting hate-merchants like stephen miller, stacking the fed courts in unprecedented numbers with lifetime-appointed, unqualified right-wing extremist judges (not to mention SCOTUS), the gICEstapo running amuck with naturalised citizens the next target, all propped up by the complicit republican party who clearly know they cannot win without cheating via voter suppression, gerrymandering and possibly far worse, and the fact that in the esteem of multiple high-level US experts the last general election was NOT free and fair, with no official audit of voting systems and absolutely NOTHING done in this interim between the general election and mid-terms to secure your democracy, what does it take to hear the alarm bells, they are deafening)

  30. leahnz says:

    just to add, talking to my uncle in Austin he’s pointed out that if you have cash you can spare to donate, there’s also reputable charities set up to help with such issues as raising bond, which ICE is setting from between $6,000-15,000 for jailed asylum-seekers, to help with reunification with their stolen children (RAICES bond fund) and of course ACLU is in the thick of legal battles, if that avenue appeals

  31. palmtree says:

    I just donated to RAICES. Thanks, Leah.

    Also, a few Democratic wins so far in this adminstration (Doug Jones for example) indicate that even if our elections aren’t totally free and fair, that there is a good chance a wave is coming that can’t be stopped by a few thousand votes here and there. Of course I could be mistaken, but hell, I need something optimistic to think about to get me through the day.

  32. leahnz says:

    cool beans, and i hear ya, keeping hope alive somehow is an important component in fighting apathy and complacency so rock on
    (also in my comment above: i meant ‘alignment with DESPOTS’, not ‘depots’, haha aligning with bus depots rather than fascists would be way better)

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon