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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Goldblum Cameo

weekend pass 4

So Jurassic World: Lost Kingdom is the latest example of why making weekend projection based on Friday numbers (especially on Friday afternoon) is dumb. Projectors were off by more than 10%. Could have gone the other way. Whether JW2 opened to $150 million or not will only really matter in the history books and when future guys like me do data analysis and look at the $150 million tipping point as reference. (My bet would be that another $2 million shows up in the “Actuals.”)

Kinda sick of feeling compelled to point out how well things are going. We now have 5 $100 million domestic grossers this summer, plus Avengers 3. Last year? 3 at this point.

If you include Avengers and J-World actuals over $150m, this will be the first summer ever with 3 $150m openings. Interesting notes on that is that Avengers has been part of the only years with 2 or more $150m summer openings (2012 and 2015) and the last one (2015) was in tandem with… Jurassic World.

The only box office blemish on this summer so far is Solo. And for all the speculation, no one talking to press really knows the story of what the future holds for LucasFilm’s spin-offs. Maybe they should give the control of those to Feige, as he has done them brilliantly for Marvel. I continue to content that Solo would have done better if they just stuck with Lord & Miller… the budget wouldn’t have exploded… and while it may not have done Rogue One numbers, it would not have lost money as Solo has. I’m sure someone thinks I am wrong… but Lord/Miller is 4 for 4 in profit. They have not had a flop. (And for the record, I don’t put any of this on Ron Howard, who did heavy lifting in a bad situation because he is an A #1 pro.)

Won’t You Be My Neighbor brings the rare appearance of a doc in the Top 10 at the box office… especially in the middle of the summer… though RBG got there twice in May. Great summer doc season this year, including a bunch of titles that will not do this kind of business. This includes the Jarecki film, The King, which was the per-screen king for arthouse this weekend. Get going.

Next weekend brings 2 movies that should get a good reception, albeit not mega-numbers, from audiences. Uncle Drew tantalizes as a potential summer break-out feel-good comedy, skewing to black audiences first, but getting more color blind as it rolls along, like Girls Trip. And Sicario 2 (Day of the Soldado is a HORRIBLE title to sell a movie with) is a movie that has critics twisted up in knots, but really is “the kind of movie they don’t make anymore.”

Sicario: Day of the Soldado is not a real sequel or more than a kissing cousin to the Denis Villeneuve masterwork (co-authored by Roger Deakins in a very real way). Nor is it the kill-kill-kill movie that they are selling in the ads. The opening sequence of this film is a good lead towards understanding the way the two films relate. It is tough and interesting, but nowhere near the gut punch of the original’s opening sequence. But not being one the great films of the decade doesn’t make it anything less than a solid film, unique in today’s studio output. It lingers on the theme of loyalty amongst mercenaries, which was a small part of the original Sicario. And it takes its time.

The end of the film is a hat tip to the Sicario Cinematic Universe, which I wouldn’t mind seeing at all… but I can’t argue with those who don’t care for it either.

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49 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Goldblum Cameo”

  1. movieman says:

    I never thought “Hereditary” would go much beyond $25-million.
    Good for A24.
    Might turn out to be their second highest-grossing film after “Lady Bird.”
    Also great to see how well “RBG” and “Won’t You…?” are doing.
    “Izzy” sounds interesting, and I love Mackenzie Davis and Carrie Coon.
    Is it available as a VOD? I couldn’t find it on Amazon or via my local cable company.
    Kind of surprised that “Superfly” never took off. There have certainly been worse movies marketed to an African-American demo that did much (much) better.
    Gobsmocked that “Gotti” did, well, anything. Truly. Could it have done even better if it’d been given a proper release? (Money left on the table?)
    And “Fallen Kingdom” exceeded its $130-$140-million projections. Whatever.
    Will “Incredibles 2” become be the highest-grossing animated movie ever? (Before adjusting for inflation, natch.)

  2. Non-Revisionist says:

    Movieman, Izzy was horrible. 2 people in my showing of it actually walked out. I, too, am a fan of Davis, but the movie is an incoherent mess with questionable-at-best messaging about how the viewer is supposed to feel about the Izzy character.

    Also, Hereditary is already A24’s 2nd highest-grossing movie after Lady Bird, if you’re looking at domestic grosses.

  3. Non-Revisionist says:

    Oh–and, no, Izzy isn’t on VOD yet–but given how poorly it played this weekend, I imagine it will be soon.

  4. movieman says:

    Thanks for that, N-R.
    That gross seemed so low I assumed it must be available On Demand.

    Again: good for A24!

  5. hcat says:

    So does Warners feel that since Wrinkle was able to scoot past the century mark Rampage can drag its bleeding corpse over the line as well?

  6. Night Owl says:

    What the hell is Jurassic World?! Part of me appreciated that they went b movie with a capital “B” but mostly I was just flabbergasted at the dumb. It’s making a mint overseas so I assume there are many more to come but we have to be less than two movie away from this being unbearable.

    I would pay serious money for a book explaining the whole Solo saga. I’m fascinated. Really would the Lord and Miller version have done any worse? And then the budget would have at least been a bit more proportional (A bit). They must have seriously thought it would damage the brand I guess. If you look at the timing of the firing (May/June 2017) they were just coming off the success of Rogue One, which was about two months into its bluray/digital release at that point. So I assume somebody was thinking “If Rogue One pulled in over a billion, Solo will be $800 million at least! 700 at the absolute worst! Reshoot. We’ll be fine!”. Oops. Not so much.

  7. Bulldog says:

    It’s funny, early on I thought that JW:LK would open north of $150m. Maybe a bit closer to $155-$160m. Then when I saw the studio estimate come in at exactly $150m, I knew they just wanted that number for the weekend press. Lol. Sadly, estimates are given more press than actuals.

  8. movieman says:

    hcat- I’m still waiting for Disney to give “BP” that tiny little push it needs to hit $700-million.
    Not sure what’s taking them so long.

    Maybe they’ll re-release it on a double bill w/ “Infinity War”…?

  9. Bulldog says:

    So what caused the sudden uptick in the Rampage numbers anyway? They added 3 more theatres, the per screen average went from $931 to $3172, which is better than it did in it’s 3rd weekend of release. Is it 2nd run theatres now?

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    How well things are going? Is this a Disney corporate earnings report or a box office report? Maybe a Trump stock market report that ignores blowing up the deficit?

    *Warner Bros is at its lowest gross to this point since 2012, 2nd worst since 2008. No massive bombs, but nothing has made any money either.

    *Universal, even with the JW2 opening, is having it’s 2nd worst year since 2010.

    *Fox, over the last 5 years, is having its 4th best year to this point.

    *Sony, which started fantastically due to JUMANJI 2 and PETER RABBIT has been treading water for months, and will likely fall behind last year’s gross soon while it remains far from its heydey

    *Paramount may still have its 2nd worst year ever, MI6 be damned.

    *Lionsgate has its lowest gross since 2011, 2nd worst since 2007.

    Roadside and A24 are having good years at least. But damn…caveat your grand statements as pertaining to Disney maybe from now on. They have, separately, the biggest domestic superhero grosser ever, the biggest international/worldwide superhero grosser ever and likely the biggest animated movie ever all released in the year’s first half. One company dominating with a holy trinity of must-sees does not equate to overall industry health.

  11. palmtree says:

    Well, even though this is small potatoes by comparison, but I’m happy that Ocean’s 8 is still holding its own against the previous films in its franchise. It probably won’t end up being higher than the original, but it’s looking good at the moment.

    And yeah, I know it’s a flawed movie, but sometimes a formula works even when it isn’t particularly inspired. It’s sort of like Bond in that way, and I enjoyed it.

  12. Pete B says:

    Don’t know how anyone else felt, but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was really screwed over by the trailers. They gave away most of the plot, and there was little suspense as they’d shown most of the surprises. I’d read where the director was aggravated by them and now I can see why. That being said, it was still a decent summer popcorn movie.

  13. hcat says:

    Taking the kid to see JW this weekend. Are there spoilers to even be had in the movie? Is it beyond the basic Universal run from the dino/volcano/kong/hulk/giantmummysandface cgi effect!!! tentpole? The only thing I got from the trailer is that there’s an eruption, some cannonballing brontos and a girl with a monster in her room.

    I don’t think second run would explain Rampage’s resurgence. Its eleventh weekend has a higher screen average than Oceans 8 3rd? It doesn’t really matter if they are cooking the books to get it to a hundred, but really why bother?

  14. hcat says:


    Paramount and Sony seem to have forgotten the basic rule of the Box Office where you actually have to release movies to sell tickets. Their slates this year are almost non existent and they both got lucky with certainly not guaranteed hits like Quiet Place and Peter Rabbit (if either of those had done around 50 no one would have been shocked). For years now half the studios seem to sit the summer out, don’t know if they can’t get bigger projects off the ground or if they just don’t think they can compete, but Disney is winning partly because not everyone is coming to play.

    Universal should be fine though, they still have 300 in the tank for Jurrasic plus Skyscraper-Purge-Mamma should form some combination of another 250 to 300, they will be over a billion by August 1. The other studios though, oof.

  15. Stella's Boy says:

    I am also hoping to take my older kid to JW soon. He loves all of the Universal giant creature flicks that he’s seen, and I love that. The other day he asked to re-watch King: Skull Island, and he never passes up an opportunity to watch Jurassic Park or Jurassic World. It’s so much fun to watch these movies with him.

  16. hcat says:

    Mines an eleven year old girl, I think World was the first full PG13 film she saw, and she LOOOOOOOVED Blue. She would imitate the training scenes, I could not wait for this new one to come out. At about five I started showing her the first and third Parks, fast forwarding through the DVDs to get to the big eyed wonder bits, and skipped the more chompy parts.

  17. Stella's Boy says:

    My son is almost 11. This relatively new and expanding phase of PG-13 movies is so much fun. I love Pixar and there are a lot of good animated movies, but watching him get all giddy and amazed by stuff like JW and Kong and Pacific Rim and so on is so different and special. Looking forward to the horror movie phase.

  18. hcat says:

    Mine insists she is the only child in the country that has not seen IT. So yes horror will be on the table in a few years, and but she will not be happy about me forcing her to watch my old standbys like Monkey Shines and Fright Night. Hell if I could track down a copy she might be able to handle The Changeling now.

  19. Stella's Boy says:

    IT seems like a lot for their age. Then again I’d have been trying to see it at that age. I bet she’ll end up loving at least some of what you make her watch. Changeling seems like good gateway horror but it’s been many years since I’ve seen it.

  20. Sideshow Bill says:

    I your kids have better reactions to classic horror than mine did. My daughters think JAWS is boring and don’t think HALLOWEEN is anything at all worth watching. I took them to see it at the theater a few years ago and they were bored.

    JAWS is boring. WTF?????

    FRIGHT NIGHT is a great one though. Tons of fun. A Summer staple for me along with LOST BOYS.

    My older step-son (he’s 24) was more appreciative of the Carpenter/80s horror films I showed him growing up.And I clearly recall my youngest daughter having a blast with BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA. So all is not lost.

    But, yea. JAWS is boring. My jaw drops whenever I think of that.

  21. palmtree says:

    I could see how Jaws would be considered boring today. Its pacing is much more along the lines of a drama than a horror film.

    Warners is an interesting example. A while back they had viable franchises coming out of their ears. Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, Matrix, The Hangover, and of course the DC movies. Hell, even Lego seemed like it was going to build an empire.

    One by one, they’ve all either run their course or fizzled out in some way. The only outliers today are Wonder Woman and It, so they are definitely still in the game. But this should be a cautionary tale for Disney to not rest on laurels even when times are ludicrously great.

  22. Stella's Boy says:

    Jaws is a staple in our house. Have watched it more than once in recent weeks. The kids love it. They’re also fond of part 2’s helicopter attack.

  23. Bulldog says:

    We have a thing for sharks in our house, so actually Jaws and Jaws 2, because the latter involved kids in danger, were big with my daughters. They also still recite lines from Deep Blue Sea, and loved Shallow. Weren’t that stoked about 47 Metres Down, but I showed them the trailer for The Meg over the weekend and that is definitely on their list. They’re 17, 15 and 13.

  24. Stella's Boy says:

    I am also a huge shark movie fan. I have an irrational fear of them. Even 47 Meters Down scared me. I think it’s better than The Shallows. Just watched Open Water 3 and it freaked me out a few times. The Reef is excellent. Deep Blue Sea is a blast. Hoping The Meg is as well. Looking forward to 48 Meters Down. Always up for a shark movie.

  25. Bulldog says:

    The girls gave a thumbs down to 47 Meters. Didn’t like the fake out.

  26. Stella's Boy says:

    I wasn’t crazy about it either but most of the movie is highly effective. I squirmed a lot and even covered my eyes once or twice.

  27. hcat says:

    The eleven year old came down when I was finishing the last half hour of Jaws 2 and instead of putting her back to bed shared it with her.

    Palmtree since 2003 Warners has had at least two and as many as four 100 million budgeted projects crowding the summer. This year they are down to one and not dropping it until mid august. We’ll see if GaGa can relight the fires this fall but their not aiming for the fences like they normally do. Could they not get that Godzilla sequel up and running in time?

  28. Sideshow Bill says:

    JAWS is my 2nd favorite film of all-time. It’s the earliest movie memory I have. My parents took me to the drive-in to see it in 1975. I was 4. I can’t decide if that was bad parenting or great parenting, but here we are. I haven’t eaten anyone.

    JAWS 2 is great simply because Jaws eats a helicopter. That scene justifies it’s existence. I hope Pennywise eats a helicopter in IT 2.

  29. Bulldog says:

    ” I hope Pennywise eats a helicopter in IT 2.”
    Lol Sideshow.

  30. EtGuild2 says:

    @hcat, Sony releases more features than anyone, bar Warner Bros. But I feel you on Paramount.

  31. leahnz says:

    “if I could track down a copy she might be able to handle The Changeling now.”

    best ghost movie ever
    (i watch it regularly, so well constructed and performed and creepy, it’s out there on the webs you can download a decent quality print. thinking about it, it was the first serious ghost movie my boy watched as a kid and i think it had an impact on his future taste – in the best way – and bouncing a ball down our darkened stairwell at night was a running gag in our household until he outgrew being such a laugh. george c scott is so very good in it)

  32. Bergeron says:

    DP/30 makes the cut in the upcoming Robin Williams doc Come Inside My Mind

  33. palmtree says:

    Hcat, looks like Godzilla is on the slate for 2019. What happened this summer is weird but I hope they come back stronger as they always do.

  34. hcat says:

    But will they be adding Meg into the Kong/Godzilla throwdown of 2020? It might be difficult to pull off since if you’ve read your Crichton you know Gorillas are terrified of water, but I would think with the Meg out there everyone would be reasonably afraid of water.

  35. Bulldog says:

    They could have the Meg fight the Croc from Rampage.

  36. Bulldog says:

    Re Justice Kennedy retiring, all I have to say is that Elections have consequences, for decades to come. Sigh.

  37. hcat says:

    Not that Kennedy did any good this week, but man this is terrible. Things just keep getting darker.

  38. Bulldog says:

    Sorry, but I think France should ask back for their statue. Every player who is so inclined should kneel at every game. Don’t boot WH people out of restaurants, instead give them pictures of immigrant children with their bill, and donate their business to Democratic races. And the Dems should do everything in their constitutional power to block the next nominee until after the midterms, hopefully they can pull out a decisive win, but man is this not looking good for the Land of the Free, Home of the Brave right now.

  39. Stella's Boy says:

    June has sucked. What a shit month. A series of awful Supreme Court rulings and now Kennedy retires. Need to see some good summer movies for a salve. It’s hard not to feel seriously bummed every single day. I find myself increasingly not having the stomach for dark or somber shows and movies that in the past I would never have hesitated to watch. I had no interest in The House but I watched it the other day because I craved 80 minutes of stupid (and it delivered). I suspect in the days and months ahead I’ll be watching more movies like it, both old and new ones. Game Night and Blockers look like fun.

  40. palmtree says:

    Brings new meaning to June gloom.

    Even a blockbuster like the Incredibles 2 wasn’t a good escape. The guy kept saying Make Superheroes Legal Again, and it was just painful.

    Ironically the only respite from all this came from a movie about a white Christian Republican man. Yes, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is about what real civility looks like. But I have a feeling even Mr. Rogers would be aghast at what has happened to us.

  41. Pete B says:

    The trailer for Mandy. WOW.

  42. Stella's Boy says:

    Indeed that is one fantastic trailer. A work of art.

  43. Hcat says:

    I normally don’t get into television, especially reality, but the joy and kindness of Queer Eye and the great British baking show have been a salve to the weary souls at our house.

  44. Bulldog says:

    Finished the last season of Homeland last night and the female President Keane said these words in her speech,

    ” “When we think of democracies dying we think of revolutions, of military coups d’etat, of armed men in the streets. That’s less and less how it happens anymore. Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Nicaragua, the Philippines. Democracy is now dying when we’re not looking, when we’re not paying attention, and the end rarely comes in an instant but arrives slowly, like twilight, and at first our eyes don’t notice,” she says.

    “No single leader can save a democracy, but without a leader you can trust, no democracy can be saved,”

    Poignant in light of the current American times.

  45. Sideshow Bill says:

    Yea. September is all about MANDY for me.I’m sure there will be other good stuff I’m forgetting but that looks like something else.

    In fact, I think THE PREDATOR looks like a lot of fun. I don’t get the whining. I trust Shane Black to put this thing back on the right track.

    My local cineplex is an AMC and I giving serious thought to their A-List Pass for me and my daughter. I’m already a paid Stubbs member. $20 a month, 3 movies a week….boy, that’s a good deal if they can sustain it. There are rarely 12 movies a month I want to see but even if I go once a week I get my money’s worth.

  46. Stella's Boy says:

    The new trailer for The Predator is really good. The first one was a little dicey. But I also trust Black and can’t imagine it’s anything less than extremely entertaining. Lots of promising genre fare in September. Looks like a promising month.

  47. Stella's Boy says:

    Boyd Holbrook was good in Logan. I’m not entirely thrilled about him as the lead but he should be OK. Much more excited about the supporting cast. It’s great. And I also like Predators a lot. I’ve rewatched it a few times since its initial release and it’s easy to watch and a lot of fun. Solid reboot or reimagining or whatever.

  48. Pete B says:

    I thought Boyd Holbrook was trying to channel Val Kilmer’s Doc Holliday in Logan. That was the vibe I got anyway.

  49. Doug R says:

    They had two crews working on the Predator a couple of blocks from each other. I saw the Halloween decorations up in spring and thought-well at least it’s not Christmas-Shane Black is growing as an artist.

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