Gurus O’ Gold On Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Actor
For mid-November, the Gurus update their predictions for Best Picture, and take a first look at best supporting actor and best actor.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture - October | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Sneider | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
A Star Is Born |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 146 | ||
| 1 | 3 |
Green Book |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 146 | ||
| 3 | 2 |
Roma |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 137 | ||
| 4 | 5 |
The Favourite |
4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 99 | ||
| 5 | 6 |
Black Panther |
8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 82 | ||
| 6 | 7 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
5 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 77 | |||
| 7 | 8 |
BlacKKKlansman |
9 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 73 | |||
| 8 | 4 |
First Man |
6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 63 | |||
| 9 | 9 |
Vice |
10 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 57 | |||
| 10 |
Widows |
12 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 47 | |||
| 10 |
Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
7 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 39 | |||||
|
Boy Erased |
12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
Mary Poppins Returns |
9 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
|
The Front Runner |
8 | 12 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
|
A Quiet Place |
10 | 11 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
On the Basis of Sex |
6 | 1 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||
|
First Reformed |
7 | 1 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Mule |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Hereditary |
11 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Eighth Grade |
11 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mahershala Ali Green Book |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 89 | |||
| 2 |
Sam Elliot A Star is Born |
2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 64 | |||
| 3 |
Richard E. Grant Can You Ever Forgive Me?” |
4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 62 | |||
| 4 |
Timothée Chalamet Beautiful Boy |
3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 54 | ||||
| 5 |
Michael B. Jordan Black Panther |
7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | |||||||
|
Adam Driver BlacKKKlansman |
3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | |||||||||||
|
Sam Rockwell Vice |
6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | |||||||||
|
Steve Carell Vice |
6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
|
Daniel Kalyuua Widows |
7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
|
Russell Crowe Boy Erased |
7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Steve Buscemi The Death Of Stalin |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Andrew Dice Clay A Star Is Born |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Robert Forster What They Had |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Lin-Manuel Miranda Mary Poppins Returns |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Nicholas Hoult The Favourite |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bradley Cooper A Star Is Born |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 85 | |||
| 2 |
Viggo Mortensen Green Book |
2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 76 | |||
| 3 |
Christian Bale Vice |
7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 56 | ||||
| 4 |
Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody |
4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 46 | ||||||
| 5 |
Ryan Gosling First Man |
3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | |||
|
Willem Dafoe At Eternity's Gate |
6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | ||||||||
|
Ethan Hawke First Reformed |
6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Hugh Jackman The Front Runner |
4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | |||||||||||||
|
Robert Redford The Old Man & The Gun |
5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Clint Eastwood The Mule |
6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
John David Washington BlacKKKlansman |
7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
|
Steve Carell Beautiful Boy |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Chadwick Boseman Black Panther |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Lucas Hedges Ben is Back |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
It seemed for awhile that Viggo had retreated to films so small and under the radar they wouldn’t be contenders for awards anymore. So glad he is back in the conversation in any way.
It is nice to see Widows drop since the trailer made it look so lame. Unfortunately Green Book has risen and the trailer makes it look like a sappy piece of crap.
Viggo Mortensen should get Best Actor for Green Book. Please Viggo is not a racist at all. He fights for human rights here in the USA and in other countries as well. He was simply explaining about a period on our history. Don’t make something out of nothing. To grow as a country we have to move on. He is not a racist he loves all people, that is who he is…
A star is born, Bradley Cooper really bI Don’t think so.
OMG! It is not very good
I think Gosling and “First Man”‘s nomination hopes were K.O.-ed after its meh b.o. performance.
But I still think “The Mule” is a dark horse. Does anyone know whether WB has officially green lighted an awards campaign? Seems crazy that a movie whose trailer practically screams “Oscar-Clint” (e.g., “Million Dollar Baby,” “Unforgiven,” “Gran Torino,” “American Sniper,” etc.) wouldn’t be afforded a proper awards push. Especially considering Eastwood’s long, long history w/ WB (which produced many blockbusters and two–count ’em–BP wins).
—if my memory is right, in the past, only 19 animated theatrical release movies had been put in theaters. Because of that, Disney, which wanted five nominating slots instead of three nominating slots, gave a premier and one-screen movie run to a (i assumed) originally direct-to-video movie.
first, are there enough animated films, I assume 20 or more, in theaters this year, already?
Would the Academy Awards really go forward with only three “Best Animated Feature” slots?
The animated film I want to know about is “Isle of Dogs.” Does anyone have any ideas about its likelyhood of a nomination?
—A website called “Nerdlist” shows only 15 animated theatrical release films in 2018.
Does that mean only three “best animated feature” slots at the Academy Awards, or not?
—Carolyn Giardina at “The Hollywood Reporter” writes that there are 25 animated features, so that means five “Best Animated Feature” slots at the Oscars.