The Gurus o’ Gold Highlight Best Picture, Best Foreign Language, Best Documentary
Checking in a week before Oscar nomination voting ends: predictions for documentary feature, foreign language film, and of course, best picture, with some intriguing wiggling in the rankings after major guilds have announced their nominees.
In foreign language, there’s an apparent consensus, and Germany’s Never Look Away benefits from additional screenings or screeners in the mix.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Documentary | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Won't You Be My Neighbor? |
2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 61 | ||
| 2 | 2 |
RBG |
1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 34 | |||
| 3 | 3 |
Free Solo |
4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 33 | |||
| 4 | 5 |
Minding the Gap |
2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 29 | |||||
| 5 | 4 |
Three Identical Strangers |
3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 19 | |||||||
|
Hale County |
5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 | |||||||||||
|
Dark Money |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Crime + Punishment |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Shirkers |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Foreign Language | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 91 |
| 2 | 2 |
Cold War |
2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 75 |
| 3 | 3 |
Shoplifters |
3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 58 |
| 4 | 4 |
Capernaum |
4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 54 |
| 5 | 5 |
Burning |
5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 30 | |||||
|
Never Look Away |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 |
Roma |
1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 120 | ||
| 2 | 1 |
A Star Is Born |
2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 119 | ||
| 3 | 4 |
Green Book |
4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 92 | ||
| 4 | 6 |
BlacKkKlansman |
7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 90 | ||
| 5 | 5 |
The Favourite |
7 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 67 | |||
| 6 | 3 |
Black Panther |
8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 65 | ||
| 7 | 7 |
Vice |
5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 55 | |||
| 8 | 9 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
9 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 46 | ||||
| 9 | 8 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 28 | ||||
| 10 | 10 |
First Man |
10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||
|
A Quiet Place |
10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 6 | ||||||||||||
|
Crazy Rich Asians |
9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Eighth Grade |
10 | 9 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Cold War |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mary Poppins Returns |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
I can’t imagine “Roma” winning both Best Picture AND Best Foreign Language Film.
The latter is a lock; the former? A Netflix masturbatory fantasy.
They’re just saying Roma’s a lock to be nominated for Best Picture, Movieman. They aren’t predicting the eventual winner yet.
‘Of Fathers and Sons’ was nominated for “best Documentary.” When was the last time anyone of “The Gurus” thought it was still in the running?
“of fathers and sons” was last listed by the Gurus as important on December 2, 2018.