Gurus Predict, Post-Guilds: Director, Production Design, Film Editing, Animated Feature; As Well As Doc Feature, Cinematography, Costume Design, SFX and of course, BEST PICTURE
We lead with Best Cinematography, with the Gurus’ prediction for most likely and second most likely right there in black-and-white.
Best Picture shows only a little light between its one and two as well, with Roma still favored over the unexpectedly strong Green Book.
While not a true toss-up, the Gurus find Spike Lee rising as their universal second choice for likely directorial glory.
Battles royal The Favourite and Black Panther vie to be seen for production design.
The Gurus also sense that the guilds awards strength for the massive hit Bohemian Rhapsody could push the “Bo Rhaps” to an editing win, substantially ahead of The Favourite.
Foreign-language estimate of Oscar voter sentiment also doubles up with the monochrome, with Roma and Cold War.
For documentary feature, the prediction is sentiment toward the ailing Supreme Court associate justice and RBG, with Free Solo climbing right behind.
No hawing, only hemming, with The Favourite for costume design.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Cinematography | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alfonso Cuarón Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | ||
| 2 |
Cold War Łukasz Żal |
3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 41 | ||
| 3 |
The Favourite Robbie Ryan |
2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 37 | ||
| 4 |
A Star Is Born Matthew Libatiqe |
5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 26 | ||
| 5 |
Never Look Away Caleb Deschanel |
4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Roma |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 83 | ||
| 2 | 2 |
Green Book |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 79 | ||
| 3 | 3 |
BlacKkKlansman |
5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 53 | ||
| 4 | 4 |
The Favourite |
2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 48 | ||
| 6 | 5 |
Black Panther |
8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 48 | ||
| 5 | 6 |
A Star Is Born |
6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 42 | ||
| 7 | 7 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 27 | ||
| 8 | 8 |
Vice |
7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alfonso Cuarón Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | ||
| 2 |
Spike Lee BlacKkKlansman |
4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 45 | ||
| 3 |
Yorgos Lanthimos The Favourite |
5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 33 | ||
| 4 |
Pawel Pawlikowski Cold War |
3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 22 | ||
| 5 |
Adam McKay Vice |
2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 20 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Production Design | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The Favourite |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 55 | ||
| 2 |
Black Panther |
3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | ||
| 3 |
Roma |
2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 28 | ||
| 4 |
Mary Poppins Returns |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 26 | ||
| 5 |
First Man |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Film Editing | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 49 | ||
| 2 |
The Favourite |
2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 38 | ||
| 4 |
BlacKkKlansman |
3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 33 | ||
| 3 |
Vice |
1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 32 | ||
| 5 |
Green Book |
5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 28 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Foreign Language | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Roma |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 59 | ||
| 2 |
Cold War |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 49 | ||
| 3 |
Shoplifters |
3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 30 | ||
| 4 |
Capernaum |
5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 22 | ||
| 5 |
Never Look Away |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Documentary Feature | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Free Solo |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | ||
| 1 |
RBG |
2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 50 | ||
| 3 |
Minding the Gap |
3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 39 | ||
| 4 |
Hale County This Morning, This Evening |
4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 | ||
| 5 |
Of Fathers & Sons |
5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 15 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Costume Design | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The Favourite |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 56 | ||
| 2 |
Black Panther |
3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | ||
| 3 |
Mary Poppins Returns |
4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 35 | ||
| 4 |
Mary Queen of Scots |
2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 33 | ||
| 5 |
Ballad of Buster Scruggs |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Visual Effects | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Avengers: Infinity War |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 52 | ||
| 2 |
First Man |
2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | ||
| 3 |
Ready Player One |
3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 40 | ||
| 4 |
Solo: A Star Wars Story |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 24 | ||
| 5 |
Christopher Robin |
5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Makeup | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Vice |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 33 | ||
| 2 |
Mary Queen of Scots |
2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 | ||
| 3 |
Border |
3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Animated | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | ||
| 2 |
Incredibles 2 |
2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 46 | ||
| 3 |
Isle of Dogs |
3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 37 | ||
| 4 |
Mirai |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 | ||
| 5 |
Ralph Breaks The Internet |
5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 |
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter; Facebook
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
Ack. So the Marvel film that will win an Oscar is Avengers, not Black Panther.
Watching The Favorite, one would never guess that Queen Anne, the Churchills and Godolphin had the political gravity needed to lead Britain through a long, difficult world war (called the actual first world war by Winston Churchill). Sarah Churchill and Anne were heroines, giants of history, but they are here reduced to little more than buffoons in a broadly acted British pantomime show. This in the era of Me Too?
—Do the Gurus O’ Gold know if “Free Solo” winning the Oscar will increase its box office sales, or not?
After 20 weeks, it’s made just under $16 million. The IMAX and other large-screen re-releases have done very well.
That’s the seventeenth-highest grossing documentary, according to Boxofficemojo.
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