Awards Update
20 Weeks To Oscar: Season of a Different Color
I don’t know if this will be an #OscarSoWhite year. But even if Denzel Washington and Octavia Spencer are nominated, it will be the same way as two seasons ago… and likely, two seasons into the future.
The problem is not how many nominations people of color get from The Academy. The problem is that we have such a small group of “movies of color” for Academy members to consider.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Pick The Winners Way Too Early
As The Gurus get into the weekly habit of prognosticating again, there was no messing around. Who is going to win? The Gurus, who are insightful, but not fools, didn’t vote for any of the movies or performances that haven’t yet been shown widely (that changes over Thanksgiving). For a “wide open season,” there are a bunch of categories that seem surprisingly close to settled in the minds of The Gurus.
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: The Known Unknown
I see no rhyme nor reason to hang onto trying to figure out which of this group will be The Ones. I think I can guess 6 with pretty high assurance. But others would intensely disagree. It gets more complicated because many people will get excited about more than 10 of these titles. And there aren’t enough slots.
Read the full article »One-Hundred-Seventy Documentary Features Submitted For Oscar
One hundred seventy features have been submitted for consideration in the Documentary Feature category for the 90th Academy Awards. The submitted features, in alphabetical order: “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail” “Aida’s Secrets” “Al Di Qua” “All the Rage” “All These Sleepless Nights” “AlphaGo” “The American Media and the Second Assassination of President John F. Kennedy”…
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Early Line
The Gurus are back a week early this year, launching with Best Picture, Acting categories and Director. If this early look matched nominations exactly (which, of course, it won’t), the only nominated actor of color would be Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water, and Get Out would get a Best Picture nod. Also of note, a big showing from Call Me By Your Name, as well as a female directing nominee.
Read the full article »23 Weeks To Oscar: Actors!!!
This is a good year for movies. It may become the most boring Oscar race in living memory. Why? Because even though the answers are not 100% clear in any category yet… the reason that no one has taken “absolutely winning” position is not a lack of great performances, but a distinct lack of “must win” candidates.
Read the full article »24 Weeks To Oscar: Where We Are After TIFF
Only two movies came out of North American premieres at TIFF (which is essentially over, even though it goes on for five more days) with legitimate Best Picture hopes, Molly’s Game and the Venice premiering Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Read the full article »25 Weeks To Oscar: What Happened In Telluride
Twenty-nine new films premiered (or close to it) at Telluride. About half figure in the award season. The two clear winners – at a festival without a competition – were Lady Bird (which gets first billing as the less-expected smash) and Darkest Hour, a movie highly anticipated for the performance of Gary Oldman… and then overdelivered. Expect Best Picture nominations for both. From there, it gets complicated.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Dawn Of A New Award Season
Venice starts in five days. Telluride in six. And The Gurus are here to let you know that the only films that are considered sure bets are Dunkirk and Steven Spielberg’s still-editing Pentagon Papers movie. Also accruing over 80 points are Get Out, The Shape of Water, Downsizing and the Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson. So what does this mean? Expect big surprises over the next couple weeks as fortunes rise and fall.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Our Final Votes
In this final look at the field before Oscar Sunday, The Gurus bet heavy on La La Land. Also, a long list of categories where The Gurus think upsets are still possible, though the only La La upset with any traction is Huppert over Stone (and still, all voting Gurus went Stone and only 5 consider the upset possible). Plus, the Gurus are still fuzzy on the shorts.
Thanks for joining us for another season. We predict we will see you again in August.
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: 4 Days Away…
It wasn’t complex. It wasn’t full of surprises. And nothing in its nature has suggested any real change at The Academy or inside The Industry.
The Academy is still old and white. Young people still tend to spark what is new about the industry. But the process of “becoming” for non-actors tends not to be an overnight event.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Final Voting Has Begun… The Gurus Weigh In
The Gurus offer their Top 2 in every category… except when a Guru feels the win is so locked in that there is no realistic competition. Seven of the categories have unanimous votes (Actress, Supporting Actress, Animation, Documentary, Score, Song, VFX). If The Gurus’ vision is clear, one film will win 9 Oscars on the night. The Gurus will be back one more time, after voting closes.
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: Cash & Carrying Gold
Here is a key stat about winning Best Picture: Since the expansion to 5+ Best Picture nominees, no film that has won Best Picture has been better than #3 on the list of domestic box office grossers amongst the nominees.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Pick Your Top Two
This week, the Gurus were asked for their Top 2 picks in every category… unless they thought the winner is a lock. The results were not surprising, although Denzel Washington has moved into a lead and virtual Guru tie with Casey Affleck for Best Actor. Also close: Original Screenplay.
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: The Simple Case For Moonlight
The phenomenon of Moonlight was on full display at the Telluride Film Festival. Audiences were not only screaming and standing on their feet when the movie ended, but many walked the intimate streets of Telliride in a kind of shock, rocked to their core. Men and women. Straight and gay. Some were black… but it is Telluride and well… most were not.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: First Take At Ranking The Nominees
The Gurus ranked every Oscar category except for the shorts (even Gurus need to catch up with those nominees). And according to the Gurus, La La Land won’t break or tie the record for most wins. The film will have to settle for nine wins. The category in which The Gurus are the most indecisive? Make-up and Hair, with all three nominees ranked within two points of each other.
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: The Simple Case FOR La La Land
How can anyone claim that a musical that opens with scores of people getting out of their cars to dance and sing on the freeway is “easy” “obvious” or “made for Oscar voters?” If audiences didn’t fall in love with that 5 minutes, the whole picture probably goes down. That is a massive risk.
Read the full article »Nomination: Reaction
“I am thrilled! Loved making this film. I would work with Tom anytime, anywhere. Jake and Aaron and Karl made it easy for me. Nice to get some good news in the midst of all the carnage, so to speak.” – Michael Shannon “I was just lying in bed when I found out. I…
Read the full article »20 Weeks To Oscar: Right Before The Noms
This has been, perhaps, the most boring Oscar season in modern history.
But the other truth is, this has been a great award season for movies. Everyone has their personal preferences, but man, what a high quality line-up of product for awards this year. High and low.
Read the full article »Gurus o’ Gold: Last Guesses Before Nominations
The Gurus are making their last group gasp before nominations arrive on Tuesday. (A couple Gurus, stuck in Sundance, may add to the charts.) Not a lot has changed in Best Picture, but some long-expected nominees have been pushed out in Actress. If the Gurus are channeling a true vibe, La La Land will lead the way with 14 nominations, followed by Arrival with 10. Dive in. Every category except for shorts is there this week. And after nominations, The Gurus will return with rankings of the nominees.
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