20 Weeks To Oscar: The Wars Before The War

I should have written a column last week… but this season is turning into a beautiful bore. And by that I mean that there is some truly wonderful, exceptional work out there and on the way out… and many categories are wide open in terms of exactly who will be nominated… but those excited fish are swimming in a very small barrel.

20 Weeks To Oscar: Settling Into The Starting Gates

By this time next week, the only unseen contenders in the race will be Allied, Collateral Beauty, Hidden Figures, Fences, Passengers, and Silence. And I expect, sight unseen, three of those six titles to be nominated for Best Picture. This is not an insignificant group.

24 Weeks To Oscar: Lots of Festivals, Few Surprises

So… seven films got Best Picture nominations after festival launches last year… launched from seven different festivals.

In other words… there is no awards magic to any of these festivals (though they all have their own magic). What works is what works. Period. Exclamation point!

Gurus o’ Gold: Before The Festivals…

Before the Venice Film Festival kicks off the season next Wednesday, The Gurus are putting on their thinking hats and offering a mostly film-blind look toward the future. Each Guru has a different way of approaching this process, but historically, the accuracy of the group this early in the year is surprisingly good. And a film or two always eludes their glance in August. We humbly dip a toe in the water…

27 Weeks To Oscar: The Shifting Award Show Cycle

The market will out. One of the little-discussed reactions to the new instant-information era is the downgrading of many of our favorite (for some, least favorite) parts of the movie year, festivals and award shows. Sundance is a true market festival in the United States and as such has become a consistent launchpad for awards…

27 Weeks To Oscar: Ohhhhhhh

A lot of things are unfolding at once in the Nate Parker-The Birth Of A Nation story. Once emotions are stirred, it’s understandably hard to sort them out. Some would say that you shouldn’t have to sort them out. But for better or worse, that’s how my mind works.

29 Weeks To Oscar: Let The Wild Rumpus Start

As usual, at this point in the year, the pickings for Oscar already seem light. Lots of presumably good movies. But how much Oscar bait is there in the ocean, really? Let’s just dive in. My first Top 10… in which I feel strongly about the nominations bets on only 3 of these titles. The deck could…

364 Days To Oscar: Wrapping Up

This show was 85% of the way to being the kind of show that builds the loyal audience and can then build on that audience. Big congratulations to Reggie Hudlin and David Hill. They did it right… or at least are on the right track.

Gurus o’ Gold: The Final Vote (including a few last second changes)

A couple of Gurus have last minute changes to their picks. And the entire rundown in every category is here.

Gurus o’ Gold: Our Best Guess… Our Final Guess

The Academy’s votes are in. And now, The Gurus have spoken as well.

Ten categories have unanimous votes, including 5 of the Top 8. Another five categories have 11 or 12 of the 13 Guru votes. That would suggest a pretty boring evening, with the big unknowns being short films, Costume Design, and Sound. But it has been a season of surprises… so stay close to the TV on Sunday night.

9 Days To Oscar: Is That All There Is?

Is there anything left to mine this Oscar season?

I really like the group of movies this year… but I am paying very close attention and I can’t find anything to get excited about at this point. If people I like win, I will be happy.

Gurus o’ Gold: Battleground Categories Top 3!!!

The Gurus were asked to pick their Top 3 in the 8 Battleground Categories. Only one pick to win has changed… but it’s a big one.

3 Weeks To Oscar: Exposing The Wizard

Stop me if you’ve heard this…

How is it that the person with their finger on the nuclear button, and some group of producers who get to take home the coolest swag in Hollywood, are on the same short-term-memory track?

Gurus o’ Gold: 2 Days Before Voting Begins

This week, the Gurus voted in every category for everyone they thought had a chance of winning. This led to some very interesting numbers, including one mad movie with 6 wins, besting everyone in the field by 3. And two categories where everyone is in agreement that there’s no potential upset.

Gurus o’ Gold: 9 Days Until Voting Begins

The Gurus storm into February looking at the “Top 8” categories, plus Feature Documentary and Cinematography. Appropriate to this still-unsettled season, The Gurus currently foresee 7 different movies winning those Top 8 prizes, with only the Best Picture leader grabbing 2 of these 8.

20 Weeks To Oscar: The Race & Race – Part 3: All Fixed

This has been an unpleasant week. And yet, there should be unrestrained celebration amongst all Academy members and all believers in efforts to seek greater (and ultimately achieve) racial and gender diversity in all film industry organizations, including The Academy.

So what is the problem?

Gurus o’ Gold: The Week After Nominations

Things seem to be firming up in the top 8 categories. The Gurus offer their Top 2 in each of the categories, except for Picture. (Also worth noting – voting was done before nominee Rampling made her statements about race and Oscar.)

20 Weeks To Oscar: The Race & Race – Part 2: Four Suggestions To “Fix” The Academy

This is where we are… the third season in the last six without a “black” film or black actor nominated. That was background… here is the foreground. Three small but perhaps important suggestions about how to “fix” the problem at The Academy. And then one last suggestion that I think may actually be the most actionable and helpful of the lot.

20 Weeks To Oscar: The Race & Race – Part 1: Expectations

This is the first of a series examining the issue of Race and The Academy Of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. It follows a Gurus o’ Gold special edition that charted the history of the Gurus voting for Best Picture over the course of the season.

Gurus o’ Gold: Nomination Day (part 1 of 2)

The Gurus (well, most of us) are back with our insta-take on where the Oscar nominees will fall. If The Gurus are right, it looks like The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road will be battling it out for the most wins, while another film wins the big prize.