Oscar Competitor Perspective

It’s a funny thing… we all want to believe that awards season has a basic legitimacy of “you vote for what you like,” but it just isn’t that way. It’s like finding someone you’re attracted to… it doesn’t always make so much sense on paper, but it is what it is.
The two $100 million movies in the race, American Gangster and Hairspray, are well liked by many, but as the critics’ top tens are showing – placing them, so far, at 28 and 39 – respect is a different achievement. Instinctively, it sometimes seems to me like both are still right in the middle of the race, but objectively, nope.
There is nothing wrong with Sweeney Todd‘s opening weekend or Atonement‘s limited release. But suddenly, Atonement is being passed by Juno (albeit on more screens) and one wonders whether they have been a little too precious with their high-toned movie. Sweeney is well off the Dreamgirls opening pace and with two holiday weekends, $40 million is about the top the film can hope for by the start of the new year. Will that be read as a solid start or a dangerous middle road, with any hopes for a $100 million gross completely dependent on Oscar?
The big advantage that Atonement still holds is that it is getting the critical support (#7 on the current Top Ten chart). Sweeney isn’t doing bad there either (#13).
But we are still swimming in the same big pool. There Will Be Blood continues to have an odd advantage by not being seen. The Diving Bell & The Butterfly, Into The Wild, and Juno remain in the “right” position to grab somewhat unexpected BP slots, as No Country For Old Men and Michael Clayton go into Christmas as the two most locked-in films… with Atonement and Sweeney Todd a little bit weaker than before.
The thing about Now is that there is almost nothing that really can be done about any of it. The movies are in charge now. Perception of things like box office wil be noticed, but primarily as a confirmation of viability.
There are two objctive standards that seem to hold at this time of the year. The first is that the film needs to be over $15 million gross if it was released before December and needs to appear on its way to success if released slowly in December. The second is that all five films are likely to be in the Top Ten chart’s top 21. We have seen films from outside that group move in as more lists are compiled. But we have never gone outside of the Top 21 for a nominee since we’ve been doing the charts. And the range has become smaller in the last couple of years. American Gangster and 3:10 To Yuma both have the potential to still crack the Top 20. We’ll see.
In the meanwhile, Gurus o’ Gold’s Top 5 are in the Top Tens’ top 13… a few in that group are likely to be fiscally blocked – Diving Bell is a problem that way – and things will change as the next 100+ charts come in… and as the grosses roll in over the next week.
In other words, the season remains the same…

Sunday Estimates by Klady – Dec 23

Surprise

I picked up the kinda surprisingly not-high def DVD of Death Proof last night. I have been very curious about what the extended version would play like.
As with the movie – and not everyone agreed – I was fine with more chatter between “the girls.” The more there was, the more naturalistic, the more it feels like what Tarantino was after. There is a greater level of boredom with themselves here. The downside is that the menace of Stuntman Mike is not quite as great.
Someone write, back at Cannes, that the previously “scene missing”ed lapdance was “worth the wait.” It was not. In fact, even in the uncut version, it is truncated by Tarantino, obviously aware that it wasn’t doing much for anyone. The woman is sexy

Friday Estimates by Klady

Ya wins some

Wrath

I’m not sure that I have made this point clearly…
The WGA will not shut down the Oscars.
There is a world of difference between fucking with a 100

20 Weeks… Year Ender

Well, we’re down to where we were a month ago!
Back on November 15, I wrote: “It’s also an unusual year because so many of these films are so good. Everyone has personal favorites and films they just don’t like, but if you run down the list of the dozen or so films still in play, it seems like you are going to find almost everyone giving a “thumbs up” (quarter to Roger) to at least two-thirds of the titles. That is remarkable, really.”
Has that changed?
The rest…
The Charts…

Bring Your Own Blog, Christmas Pre-Game

Ho, Ho, How you gonna keep ’em down on the farm when they have their own space to argue amongst themselves?

Not Sure How Well Reported This AMPAS Response Was

Message regarding the Academy and the WGA
(posted 12/18/07, 11 a.m. PT):
To the members of the Academy:
Some reports in the press have stated that the Academy had been denied a waiver by the WGA that would have allowed Guild writers to work on the telecast of the 80th Annual Academy Awards. In fact, the Academy has not requested such a waiver, nor has the Guild told the Academy whether such a request would or wouldn’t be viewed favorably.
As it does each year, the Academy recently requested from the WGA a waiver in connection with any film clips and excerpts from past Oscar telecasts that might be shown on the upcoming Academy Awards telecast. The Academy was informed last night that the Guild would not grant that waiver, stating that to do so would not advance the Guild’s goals in its current efforts to achieve a collective bargaining agreement. This decision affects only the conditions under which we may use such material, not our ability to do so.
The Academy remains committed to presenting its Awards on February 24, and will continue to work with all parties to achieve that goal.

Late Night At The Movies

At The Grove, here in L.A., four of this weekend’s new films are launching just after midnight tonight: National Treasure 2, Sweeney Todd, Walk Hard, and Charlie Wilson’s War.
The only film at over 50% capacity was Sweeney Todd… and it was at about 80% capacity in a 300+ seat theater. Not bad, but not overwhelming. And how was it for the rest? Ow.

Oops, They Did It Again

WGA West Statement on Film Independent Spirit Awards
LOS ANGELES — The Writers Guild of America, West (WGAW) has issued the following statement regarding the Independent Spirit Awards: