The Hot Blog Archive for May, 2008

Sydney Pollack, 73

I will write more on this later… boarding a plane. But this long-anticipated loss is one of the big ones for the film world, in this year or any other.
He was not only an important filmmaker, but an important supporter of filmmaking… the old and the new. He was, in so many ways, a traditionalist, yet he broke the rules at will, with style and real insight into what else was possible.
We all go, but few in this game will be remembered as fondly and respectfully by so many that they have been to war both with and against.
And on a personal level, Pollack is a bridge between the old and new Hollywood for me, his films coming of age just before I would and then, as I did. He romanticized the past and was raw and real (in a Hollywood context) about the present. So his loss represents the real starting line for the exits of an era of filmmakers that touched my life profoundly and more directly than the greats of the past.
Sadness…

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Weekend Estimates by Klady – May 26

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So… after protecting Indy, it turns out he didn’t need much protection after all.
Len has it estimated at $149 million, BO Mojo and Fantasy Moguls at $151m. Regardless, it is the #5 first five days domestically ever. It might also be the fifth $150m+ 5-day ever. It’s a bigger opening than any Harry Potter or any Rings film.
My personal take is that the #2 Memorial Day Weekend thing is pretty irrelevant. The significance of that kind of landmark really varies from year to year. What doesn’t vary – in spite of the adjusted gross and ticket price folks – is money. Money is money is money. There is no realistic comparison between movie grosses and ticket sales in the mid-sixties and earlier with the seventies and then we see another big leap in the mid-90s. The top opening before 2000 is 1999’s Star Wars – Episode One, which is all the way down at #20 now. But Indy follows in the footsteps of the four years before, as the top five openings of all time are now one per year, 2004-2008, three in May, one in June and one in July.
The question of how the film is being perceived, outside of our media and geek bubble, is still mostly unknown. I am not a big fan of the film, but as I recall, there was even great rage in our bubble about Episode One… and that went on to four times opening, which doesn’t prove that the film is any good, but does prove that word-of-mouth in the real world was very good, at least.
After these numbers, most of the boo birds will back off… but not Nikki Finke, who continues to push the negativity. Knowing, as we do, that Nikki writes what Nikki is fed, one has to wonder whose agenda is it to diminish this obvious success? My guess has shifted away from another studio and right back to people inside Paramount who are about to lose Mr Spielberg again… particularly based on the new spin, which is that business is good, but Spielberg wasn’t really trying.
As I always say… it takes a lot of hard work to make even a crappy movie. And in this case, love it or hate it, S/L/F took a lot of time to decide on a story and a script before making this film. Yes, they might all have been delaying, in part, until it was most advantageous to go ahead and make the movie. But the idea that this was not an effort is simply foolish.
Meanwhile, the worldwide number is over $300 million for this weekend. This means that Paramount will have their expenses on the film covered by the middle of next weekend and Spielberg/Lucas/Ford will start taking home 48 cents of every dollar grossed by the film (45 cents to the theaters and 7 cents to Paramount).
There’s not a lot more to talk about… the Caspian bloodbath being covered and mourned.

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BYOB Weekend

Thinking is easy… posting is hard.
If there is more to discuss, let the players play!
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Assassination Throwdown

I would be writing about the assassination invocation… but I don’t really know how I feel about it yet.
My first instinct was that it was completely intentional, as have “misspoken” comments about race, etc, launching public debate then apologized for. But it seemed the screaming from some was excessive.
But now, it is looking like there may be a longer run of planting this seed than I realized.
Still not sure though. The race – no pun intended – is over either way. But the rage just keeps getting piled onto when it should be subsiding.

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Are Ticket Prices Soaring?

Crazy Nikki has been headlining “Movie Ticket Prices Are Soaring” for days now… which someone must have told her and which she clearly didn’t bother to look into at all.
The ticket increases, which seem to be limited to a small number of theaters and to a $1 increase, seems to be a minor story that is being hyped by a hyper. There does seem to be a story in some increases in the cost of popcorn at the theaters… based on increases to the cost of corn.
Specific inaccuracies –
1. “Movie theaters are raising ticket prices by a dollar or two this summer because popcorn is more expensive. “
In the Kansas City Star, Robert Butler is reporting that there will be $1 increases in tickets… after 4p on weekends… from $9 to $10. In his piece, he says the increase is, “partly because of the rising price for popcorn,” but there is no specific about cause-and-effect. Butler confusingly connects a March LA Times story on popcorn price issues with ticket sales, even though AMC specifically denied the correlation on the record.
I can find no reference anywhere to any $2 ticket increases. And keep in mind, the studios have a vested interest in keeping prices sane, even though 55% of that revenue is theirs.
A USA Today story on increases in corn costs included AMC, but didn’t mention ticket price increases at all.
2. “The profit margins at theaters which rely on concession sales for as much as 45% of their revenue are desperate to make up the difference.”
Same as it ever was. Gross revenue, however, is irrelevant at a theater. In terms of net revenue, concessions are more like 80% of the net. Perhaps the 45% figure comes from the percentage theaters keep from ticket sales.
3. Also, major theaters in cities are starting to charge the same for children as adults.
This has been an issue for years. As reported in USA Today , Clearview Cinemas in Manhattan dumped children and senior pricing last year, which raised those tickets to the adult price of $12 from $8… but they also report that the decision was reversed and the $8 ticket is back for seniors and kids.
You will not find many theaters that do not offer senior and children’s pricing… and when they do not, it is usually on weekend evenings.
Of course, the rise of popcorn prices by 25 cents isn’t much of a story. And the annual summer raise of prices by 25 cents or 50 cents has been going on for more than a decade.
As far as I can tell, there has been no change of ticket pricing in Los Angeles, for instance, where it’s still $12.75 at The Grove, still $10.75 in Culver City, and still just $11.50 for AMC’s Century City multiplex.
The spin from Nikki on all of this is, “The result is that Indy 4’s totals, and Paramount’s bragging rights, can surely benefit even if it does hurt the finances of filmgoers who increasingly feel ripped off.”
Utter bullshit. Even assuming a uniquely high average ticket price for this weekend’s blockbuster release, a $1 increase in ticket prices would only lead to an increase of under $15 million to the weekend total.
This spin was likely placed there by someone other than her pal Brad Grey… someone at another studio that wants to devalue the Indiana Jones success…. like someone who might be worried about a certain web-slinger losing position on the history charts. That’s not happening, of course. Indy will fall short of those numbers. But all is spin in war and movies.

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Friday Estimates by Klady – 5/24

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So… this estimate is still the fourth biggest Friday that wasn’t opening day in history, behind Star Wars 3/6, Spidey 2, and Matrix 2. Still not a story.
It is also pointed out to me that none of the actual forecasts by the tracking companies came close to the $170m bandied around by Steve Mason and Nikki Finke, who positioned Paramount’s discussion of the actual tracing projections as a lowering of their projections. Part of the problem there is that now that Brad Grey feeds Finke, he seems to get overly enthusiastic, which she then runs, whether in box office or excitement about deals that are not as positive as spun. So perhaps the blame is not 100% on her… unless you still think of her box office coverage as journalistic in some way. Or did the higher numbers come from the competition that wants to see a $140 million 5-day look like a disappointment?
There is something thrilling about record-breaking. But it’s not always going to happen. You don’t have to be math whiz to have noticed a year ago that this summer is not going to be the kind of summer we had last year… though it might be more profitable. And my projection of Indy was always a summer leading $350m… not the $400 million-plus that you would have to project in a softer-than-2007 summer if it actually did a $170 million 5-day.
Anyway…
Narnia took a big hit this weekend and suddenly looks like $125m is going to be a stretch. Lots of dissection to come on that at Disney… and even more so, Anchutz’ office, where all the self-hype going into the release is now looking ill-conceived.
Iron Man is still holding like a champ. And Speed Racer is just barely going to beat out Harold & Kumar II at the domestic box office. Brutal.

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The Idiocy Of A $25 Million Day "Disappointment"

Funny… the first time this summer I didn’t warn about overhype causing stupid stories about a non-record for a movie being a “disappointment” and we get one.
Crazy shite.
This 5-day opening will still surely be amongst the 15 best ever. (#15 is $120.84m) And the odds are good that we are looking at the Top 10 or higher. But as is always the case with these movies, we are in the ether… all precedent is iffy, at best.
What galls is that the notion that this was going to be a $170m opening five came from people who want to tell the public that there is such a thing as tracking that says that a movie will open to $170 million. NRG or MarketCast may project that kind of number, but there is no such thing as tracking that is specific to ANY number, much less numbers for weekends over $100 million.
Of course, those same people then start using the “d” word to cover for the fact that their numbers were, simply, wrong… possible, but wrong.
And that’s what’s wrong with all this obsessive box office projection, which has really taken off since Drudge started linking to Nikki Finke offering Sony’s or Universal’s pre-weekend projections and/or Friday early evening (west coast) projections. As one of the regulars in here has asked, what’s wrong if the numbers are right? The answer is, “nothing.” The problem is when the numbers or projections are wrong. Like Barack Obama: The Muslim, unringing the bell completely is impossible. And false mythology continues to spread like a media game of Telephone.
My guess is around $140 million. But even if it’s $130m or $125m… are we really counting that as a disappointment these days? Even with that start, you’re still likely looking at the top grossing film of the summer. And internationally, it is pretty much guaranteed to be #1 for the summer in the traditional of Pirates and Spider-Man 3 and the Potter films. So….

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Sea Your Fest, 1

It’s amazing how quickly I settle into a 5-film day.
Year after year I go to festival after festival and yet, it’s easy to forget that it’s second nature to me to juggle a bunch of movie experiences each day… as I think it is for most of my critical brethren.
The first film of the day was actually not a Seattle International Film Festival movie, but rather a terrific doc about Jimmy Carter by Jonathan Demme, The Man From Plains. And I watched it (well, most of it)

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BYOB Thursday

Headng to Seattle for SIFF… talk amongst yourselves..
Please play nice… anyone who types in caps shouldn’t find such easy marks in those who do not.
(And by the way… anyone who had trouble with the Joel Silver interview link, it seems to be working now.)

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Not As Far As I Can Throw 'Em

This is one of those moments where I actually would like to have been in Cannes…
The critics are all worked up over Che and based on what I’m reading… they don’t really know what it is and they all felt compelled to offer their opinions way too early. Some are even wagging their fingers at Soderbergh, explaining what the movie must be or not be.
I have no idea how I would feel about the four hours of the film as they are right now. But I do know that I am frustrated that I might never get the chance to find out. If Soderbergh cuts the film under Cannes pressure – even though there is no consistent correlation between Cannes response and US release success – this version, or a slightly different 4-hour version, will still likely turn up on DVD some day.
But honestly, the perceptions are so all over the place that I can’t say I trust a single thing I’ve read about the movie yet… except for those who have acknowledged their confusion and their sense of same amongst their peers.

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The 48 Hr Diaries… Week One

48nick.jpgWelcome to MCN’s new weekly series, The 48 Hrs. Journals, screenwriter Larry Gross’s contemporaneous diary from the set of the classic that launched the buddy/cop craze of the 80s. I expect you will find it interesting, frustrating, and thought-provoking. A glimpse…
“I don’t know what you’ve heard…I’ve been working this fella and while I like em I know it’s not gonna work out….”
That’s Walter referring to my predecessor on the project Steve De Souza.
“I been reading a few things…the script needs some things you do well I always think do less well. I gotta bunch of people standing my office wanting know whether to make the police cars red or blue…It’s brushwork on the script that’s needed…basically this things a pounder… a shaggy dog story. Defiant Ones plus chuckles…I’ll be honest with ya…with four weeks till we shoot you probably won’t get screenwriting credit…basically all you got time for is to do what I tell ya…are ya interested?”

The rest…

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Best Review Of Meirelles' Blindness?


A Brazilian friend of the site, Cinema em Cena’s Pablo Villaca, sent this link, along with a translation into English. The moment is at a screening of Blindness, which is based on Jos

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Hot Button: Whose Scoop Is It OR Why Does My Shoe Smell?

I have great empathy for Latino Review and Collider, both of which stuck their neck out this week

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Indiana Jones & The Battle For Dominance In Utterly Irrelevant Hype

One of the ways the very valuable, well-run, helpful internet ticket buying companies are now hyping themselves is to send out weekly reports on their tickets sales. These reports are now regularly reported on websites, including Variety’s, and even referred to in Traditional Media.
One problem… they’re irrelevant non-information posing as valuable info.
You see, the further any poll gets from an unbiased survey, the less valuable that poll becomes. The least reported on aspect of polling, even in the political season, is how questions skew any survey. For instance, last night, 21% of people in KY said race was important in their voting choice… and only 80% of those people voted for Clinton… this, according to the exit polling. Something is screwy there, unless you have a lot of white people voting for Obama because he’s black or the polling is simply wrong. We have no way of knowing.
Polls by ticket-sellers are also skewed… mostly by the vagaries of online ticket sales, none of which are offered as warnings when these numbers are bandied about. I would be willing to bet that more women use the service than men, that parents who are taking smaller kids to the movies use it more than single for matinees, and that bigger cities with theaters that sell out regularly have a much higher percentage of online sales than anywhere else.
So in other words, Sex & The City should be doing big numbers with women who are planning to go one opening weekend in cities where the show had the biggest penetration, which is bigger cities. So on the Fandango chart below, you see a 5-to-1 percentage of ticket sales for S&TC vs Narnia, when there is almost no chance that this weekend

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The Hot Blog

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon