And Sundance Really Begins…

Yes, Virginia, (a part of) Sundance is 4 days long and it’s all about da hype!

DP/30: A Separation, writer/director Asghar Farhadi

Trailer: The Hobbit

DP/30: NATO President John Fithian (Nov 2011)

BYOB 122011

DP/30: WETA’s Joe Letteri, Rise of the Planet of the Apes/Tintin

DP/30: Animated Short Oscar Short-List Double Dip

I Tawt I Taw a Puddy Tat

Director Matthew O’Callaghan, Voice Talent (and living legend) June Foray, and Exec Producer Sam Register.

La Luna, writer/director Enrico Casarosa

Trailer: The Dark Knight Rises

We are the 99%.

No Episode 4 by Chris Nolan.

Hines Ward survives Dancing With The Stars AND the movie.

Weekend Estimates by A Game of Kladys

Nothing much has changed since Friday. Sherlock 2 did just under 3x Friday. Alvin 3 did just over 3x Friday. Mission:Impossible: Ghost Protocol‘s IMAX stunt did great and should build word-of-mouth, just as Paramount intended. WB won too with the Dark Knight passion being stirred.

The awards season push is suffering. For all the heat around Hugo, Young Adult, The Descendants, My Week With Marilyn, The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Carnage, and Like Crazy, it just hasn’t converted to box office gold (though each of the films has a different bar for what could be considered “success”). The most hopeful signs at the box office right now are for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, with $28k per on 16 screens. Will the picture work as well in expansion? Time will tell.

As noted with fire and brimstone elsewhere, the holiday season has, so far, been disappointing. It looks like we may end the year $600m – $700m behind last year’s #2 all-time box office, which was only off #1 by $30 million. That’s a 6% – 7% drop. That’s still a massive comeback from the 20something percent business was off as of last March. And it’s still 2 or 3 movies away from being equal to or better than last year. But it is, admittedly, not an upbeat story. But the slump talk… sorry, but there is no institutional indication of “slumping.” It is, simply, stupid to micro-obsess on what amounts to a few titles and to talk about an industry-wide problem. That said, exhibitors need some hits. They are the ones in the most vulnerable position. We’ll know how Cruise, Spielberg, and Fincher do for them shortly.

Finding The Embargo Line For Ourselves

Variety did a piece on the issue with Justin Chang and Peter Debruge. Mostly, it’s fine.

But I take exception to two notions offered by Debruge.

As trade critics, we are in the very privileged — and precarious — position of writing the first reviews out of the gate on most films, often days or weeks before movies open. That’s a tradition that goes back decades (owing to Variety’s role in helping exhibitors decide which films to program), back before our reviews were quoted and disseminated by blogs and aggregator sites like Rotten Tomatoes.

Actually, Variety took the step of pushing their content, including reviews, to Reuters long before Rotten Tomatoes and blogging took hold of things. And it would be completely false to suggest in any way that Variety was not extremely aggressive about its competitive position with review dates from the very earliest days of the web. Tradition, shamdition.,, it was about being FIRST!, just like every other “blog.”

Now for my opinion… there is ZERO reason to continue the tradition of Variety or The Hollywood Reporter getting first position on reviewing anything. It’s silly. These outlets are in direct and undeniable competition with all of us in the media, online and off, and offer nothing more – aside from some quality critics compared to some outlets, but not all – than any other outlet.

And…

The latest wrinkle has been the rise of special treatment for Oscar bloggers — an embargo-bending practice that Rudin himself instigated last year, when he showed both “The Social Network” and “True Grit” to awards-season pundits first, inviting them to run their (predictably positive) reactions before showing the films to print critics. The practice continues this year, with awards columnists given express permission to gush about “Young Adult,” “Hugo,” and “The Iron Lady” before critics are allowed to weigh in.

Well, let’s be clear. The first review for The Social Network came from Film Comment, released online, a couple of weeks before any of the “pundits” even saw the film. And the same day that “the pundits” had access to the film, the trades both had access to the film and there was no variation on embargoes.

And as for True Grit, also a bit of self-serving spin. Yes, the gamesmanship was greater on how that film was shown. Personally, I waiting for a second screening before reviewing and ran my review a week after Debruge’s. But more to the point, the “pundits” were not remotely unanimous or primarily positive. The “pundits” mostly dismissed the film, actually. The difference in review dates for “pundits” and the trades were a day or two. And in the end, the RT score on the film was 96% positive. So bad example of manipulation, Mr. Debruge. It’s kind of funny how the trades going second, a couple of days after the “pundits” is a crime, but The Trades demanding to be first on every film is just “tradition,” even though they are out selling their stuff asap.

As for this year, Young Adult was first-reviewed by The Minneapolis StarTribune, not pundits. The film played in promo events in 5 venues around the country before it got to LA… and then played in the same screening that also included the trades and the LA Times, amongst others.

Hugo premiered at The New York Film Festival and was pointedly NOT shown to the “pundits” in LA at the same time. And it received a massive tongue bath from the crew at Film Comment in the process.

When it was shown in LA, also unfinished, everyone in the 800 seat auditorium was asked not to run full reviews, but was free to write something about the film. Is this a game? Yes. Does it have much of anything to do with manipulating “the pundits?” No. And Variety reviewed out of that same screening… on the same review date everyone else was given… apparently without ever going back to see the finished print.

The Iron Lady had a 4 pundit screening, yes… and paid a price (much the same way a movie sometimes does when they set the trade review date and then make everyone else hold for a few days). I missed it because I was busy during those early screening times, but was surprised to see any reviews out of what was described to me as an off-the-record screening. But I think the movie got dismissed by the one legitimate writer who saw it and wrote about it that day… unfairly, in my view. That’s the double-edged sword when it comes to stunting.

This is a complex situation. I believe in embargoes being evenly set and screenings alike. I feel no need to review before Variety or anyone else. And I don’t feel any other publication should be given the right to review before me. Roll ’em out… set a date… be serious about penalizing those who break embargo… free the horses when it’s time.

(By the way, people outside of LA and NY would suggest that I should get my head out my butt, as they are not only less likely to see a film early, but most of the time, more strictly embargoed than anyone on the coasts.)

The truth is, the trades are at a big disadvantage having to compete with everyone releasing reviews on the same dates. Being first assures a certain number of eyeballs. Being in a pack means that only people who care about the specific outlet or critic will bother stopping to read the review. It’s no disrespect to Peter or Justin to say that no single critic actually connects with every reader. But if there is only one review, only one review matters. I understand fully why the trades have fought fiercely to keep that first review slot.

What is not addressed is the new game, really launched this season, and yes, heavily involving Scott Rudin… but he is hardly the only one. Studios and producers are going back to the “we want a wave of reviews during opening week.” So there are more and more cases where “you can write but not review” as they try to get two bites of the apple. This is too complicated. No one – not the studios nor the critics (pundit or not) – should be having it both ways.

I suggest the following standard…

If you show it at a festival, it’s available for review.

If you sneak it in public theaters, it’s available for review.

If you show the movie to any writer who is allowed to write about it in any format, it’s available for review from the day of the first written piece, review or feature.

If a publicist wants to show me or 100 writers a movie to get an opinion, it can be embargoed by agreement. But the minute any of us are allowed to offer any opinion on the movie, embargo is over.

If you show a movie to a critics group for awards consideration – or the NBR or HFPA or BFCA – the embargo is over.

====

The truth is, no one who is writing critically about a film should be spending the amount of time all of us end up spending trying to parse who reviews when, what is or is not a review, or where any of these lines are. We are not publicists. We are critics.

This is another reason why the NYFCC early voting date pisses me off. it makes them part of the problem, not critics simply responding to the work put in front of them. If you have to request an early screening before it is offered, you are overreaching.

This is all a work in progress for publicists. They don’t deserve to be raked over the coals any more than Scott Rudin… which is to say, not at all. They have a job to do. We in media have jobs to do. And it doesn’t help when Variety tries to throw other professionals under the bus for doing exactly what they do and try to do… worse, to use false information to do it.

But I like Peter Debruge (barely know Justin) and I think he/they are just trying to do their jobs too.

Critics are so busy competing for position that they don’t want to set real standards. Which sucks. And publicists are in the job of positioning their movies as effectively as possible. That’s just what it is.

Critics have to say “no” when offered opportunities that are unfair to other critics. Outlets (and “critics groups”) have to be direct and honest about who is a critic and who is a feature writer who has an opinion about movies. How to make that determination is not easy in some cases… but until critics and their outlets decide on a standard, we cannot expect studios and publicists to set the standard for us. And we can’t fairly blame them for playing games.

Let’s be honest. There are four classes of review now. 1. Quote Whore/Junketeer (which are not necessarily synonymous, but often are) 2. Trade reviews 3. Non-trade reviews by people with a relationship with the national level of the studios 4. Everyone else.

Time to rethink the whole thing. Seriously.

Studios want quotes from early, easy reviews. Let’s not fight it, but let’s not blur it with more serious criticism.

Will there be a wave of “more serious criticism” before opening week? Let’s not fight it. Let’s set a date for that.. for everyone who is going to be allowed to review on this schedule all year long. And if you break embargo once, you are out for 3 months. Twice, 6 months. Three times, a year. Four times, permanent ban by the studios. Go see movies in a movie theater if you want.

Then on opening week, review away. No more games with weeklies that publish on Wed or Thurs. But same embargo rules. No hopping from group to group.

But here’s the deal. If you are in Group A, you can’t call yourself a film critic. You are a feature writer. And the studios can’t call you a critic either. We all get to make choices in this world. If you want your name on a lot of ads in the weeks before opening, do what you must, but leave your claim of legitimacy at the door.

For Group B, if critics for the trades or major newspapers or magazines see it for Group B, even if hidden behind the excuse of Long Lead, all in Group B see the film. No games of picking which outlets see it when. Group B all has the same embargo date, so they all get to see the movie clean

Group C is simple. Review the week of release. Embargo is in effect. Show the movie. No forcing every critic into a room filled with laughers or gaspers. Respect people’s professionalism and show the movie and they will respect the rules too.

I’m sure there are variations on this that some are thinking of as they read. Fine. I have no objection to other ideas of how to delineate. My point is that it needs to be delineated. Things have changed and the old rules just don’t work anymore. I can work with restrictions, but working without any clear ones… ones that change week to week… sucks. And it sucks on both sides. Time to behave like adults BEFORE we behave like competitors.

Friday Estimates by Dr Klady, I Presume

So both Homes & Alvin are opening softer than some expected. And here’s the part that isn’t being written about… both Sherlock and The Chipmunks pushed their openings a week earlier than their last incarnations. So what does that mean?

Well… you certainly can have a mega-opening on this December weekend. The biggest Dec opening ever, I Am Legend, opened by WB, opened on “this” weekend. it is one of six movies in history to open over $30m on the second weekend of December, including Chipmunks 1 and King Kong.

If Holmes opens to $40m, it will be the 4th biggest opening on the second weekend of Dec ever. Is that a headline grabbing problem? Shouldn’t be. It’s a third less than the opening of the first film, but the extra holiday play week should have the sequel passing the original’s total as of New Year’s probably before… unless they have a word of mouth problem. That’s the strategy play here. Would they have loved a $60m opening? Obviously. Would they have gotten it against Ghost Protocol? No chance.

As for Alvin, Theodore, and the other one, I look at the marketing, which may well have been affected by the content of the movie. The genius hook of Chipmunks 2 was the Beyonce song coming out of the mouths of girl chipmunks, shaking their furry money makers. What’s new about Chipmunks 3? I have no idea. Seems like more of the exact same thing. I wasn’t the audience for either of the first two, but this one barely seems to have registered. And I’m not sure that it had the tools to do so. Fox really rang the bell the first two times and I don’t know that there was a next innovation to engage to make this one seem like an event. Still, $20m will be a disappointment, though $100m-plus at the domestic box office by the end of the holiday will make it financially positive… just not a cash cow like the first two were.

I’m pretty sure that the IMAX-only Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol launch is a first. And it looks like it will be a record breaker, after The Dark Knight‘s $8 million IMAX haul on its opening wide-release weekend. The per-screen is almost 11,000 per screen on 425 screens for Friday only. There isn’t a direct comparison out there, but it relates to films like Twilight and Potter (both of which were on a lot more screens), as well as the Miley Cyrus concert. 30k per screen for a weekend on 425 screens (which also have a limited seat count and no expanding theater count within multiplexes) is about as good as you can do.

Some will debate whether a lot of people showed up just to see the six minute The Dark Knight Rises prologue. But everyone wins in this scenario, especially as Brad Bird has made the best of the Mission movies and it’s well suited to IMAX.

This will be the first M:I top open outside of May, as it expands to a full release on Wednesday. I fully expect it to put M:I3″s domestic gross behind it before the first of the year. $215m domestic is the series high bar and that is probably doable. The really interesting piece of the puzzle is international, which has gotten stronger in the five years since Ethan Hunt put a team together. Tom Cruise isn’t TOM CRUISE anymore, but a good international action movie is still a good international action movie. $331m was the top international for the series… and cracking that is what everyone’s really after here.

The news is less exciting for Young Adult, Hugo, and The Descendants, which are kind of floating out there waiting on an Oscar-y breeze that’s more than a month off. The latter duo have at least racked up some real dollars already. YA isn’t pacing with Thank You For Smoking numbers yet. And I think that’s a shame. I think the Par ad campaign has been hip and daring, edging out of the conventional. But “Mean Girls grow up… and it’s not pretty” hasn’t quite sunk in.

Twilight 4 is now settled into the #3 slot of the franchise’s history. It seems that the more mature content has cut off some of the younger Twi-hards. And better reviews don’t matter. Don’t worry too much for Summit. The film will still cross the $650m worldwide mark this weekend.

Carnage is the big opener in the exclusive market. But even with a Globes push in the big markets (5 screens only), $15k per is not overwhelming. It’s okay.

DP/30: Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows, screenwriters Michele Mulroney, Kieran Mulroney

BYOB Weekend 121611

DP/30: Drive, actor Albert Brooks

The 80 80s Throw Out Some Globes Nods

Well… saw that coming.

The, uh, 69th Golden Globes Nominations landed and the loonies did what everyone else has done… darts on the board. Being the HFPA, they’ve thrown some darts way off the board. So, the George Clooney party delivered three nods for George in The Ides of March, one more for Gosling, and another Georgie as an actor in The Descendants. The puts Clooney in director ahead of Spielberg and Bennett Miller, btw, Angie and Brad both got the call to walk the red carpet. Shocker! The Veteran Whores of Oscar Wars went 6 in the Best Drama nods.

In the tightly contested Best Actress fight, in with Glenn Close and Rooney Mara, out with Elizabeth Olsen and Kirsten Dunst. The other 5 actresses fighting for Oscar all got in with 10 selections to make and the odd nothing that My Week With Marilyn is a comedy.

In Supporting Actor, Viggo Mortensen takes “the Nolte slot,” while Albert Brooks gets in for the first time with the Globes, not having been nodded for his Oscar nominated turn in Broadcast News or for any of his great comedies.

On the Foreign Language front, reasonable and good choices. The only foreign language film we haven’t DP/30ed yet is the one directed by the movie star. Go figure.

They even figured out a way to get Madonna to show up… Best Song. W.E. also got Best Score… which left no room for either great Cliff Martinez score or Alexandre Desplat, for that matter.

Look… there aren’t a ton of overtly stupid choices here. But then again, the season has been better defined this year than in the past. It’s really just another turns of the slide puzzle. And it is meaningless in as much as the only award that people REALLY care about is Oscar. And these awards will not change the game in any significant way. I’m sure that if you’re working on The Tree of Life or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, this isn’t a fun morning. But assuming you’ve taken a big step forward if you’re amongst these nominees is as foolish as anyone assuming that not being nominated by The Globes is death to your Oscar effort.