DP/30: Monsieur Lazhar, writer/director Philippe Falardeau

Weekend Estimates by Klady 3HG

Katniss & Co hit $300m in 17 days, not only the 6th fastest to that domestic mark all-time, but pushing aside Twilight’s best in the process.

The fourth incarnation of the core American Pie troupe did good, not great business. The last film opened to $33m after the first sequel opened to $45m. Still, the payroll couldn’t have been overwhelming on this one, so if the overseas numbers are at the normal levels for this franchise, it will be slightly profitable.

Titanic 3D isn’t killing at the box office. But it’s nice to go back and to see a better print than the first time around. Though as Mr. Ebert would say, “Too bad about the 3D.” Still, the project will likely be profitable on the domestic alone, which, should be dwarfed by the international.

I’d like to clarify my comment from yesterday about the top 3 films being star driven. I’ll stick by it, but in two of the three cases, the stars in question have not shown the ability to open much of anything else. That wasn’t what I was suggesting. In the case of American Reunion, you could – and they surely will – reboot the whole thing with a new cast and do fine. But you really couldn’t do this movie with any other cast. Likewise the lead of The Hunger Games, Jennifer Lawrence, who has never opened anything (including The Hunger Games), but whose presence is undeniably critical to the film’s success. She is the straw that stirs the drink… even in the marketing. And Leo & Kate are Leo & Kate.

There are also some notables coming to their domestic end games. Safe House is Denzel Washington’s #2 film all-time domestically, just under $125m, and is likely to get their internationally as well. Journey 2: Mysterious Island will crawl to the $100m mark. The Vow, already the Screen Gems champ, is coming up on $125m domestic and $175m worldwide. The Artist is pushing to get to $45m domestic and is already over $120m worldwide.

And A Separation continues to push along, chasing down Sarah’s Key for the honor of being the top foreign-language film in the US released in 2011… or, if you think Dec 30 releases shouldn’t count, it’s building a lead as top 2012 foreign-language release.

Sofia Vergara Kills On SNL, Outshining The Writing

There was some clever stuff on SNL this week, but the shocker was how great Sofia Vergara was by sheer force of personality. She wasn’t camera-hogging… she just turned on that extra gear when things were heading into trouble, much the way a good cast member on the show does.

The highlight for me was her Fran Drescher, which was fascinating because it played so successfully on Vergara’s own aural signature. (And I don’t remember Kristin Wiig doing a lot of celebrity imitations, but this one is perfect.) I included two other mediocre sketches in which I felt like Vergara raised the bar unexpectedly.

The Hunger Games Media Ho Down

Negotiating in the press is one of the last attractive reflections of how malleable allegedly independent journalists have become in this era. To be fair, it really took off in the LA Times more than a decade ago. But the New Media has taken this idiocy to a new level.

Gary Ross wants to get paid for the THG sequel in a way commensurate with the success of THG. SummitGate, having played the rotating directors game with Twilight to absolutely no box office effect, knows they can hire a competent director for around a million to do the sequels. it is good for your career to have a mega-hit on your resume. My guess would be $10m – $15m is is ask. (Remember, Ross wrote and directed the first film in the franchise. The lovely & talented & Oscar-winning Simon Beaufoy was brought in on the sequel so Ross could focus on directing and not slow the release date for the sequel.)

Maybe – MAYBE – they offered in $3m for the sequel. He said “fuck off,” and went on “a family vacation.” That story got into the trades.

Then Ross, who is very press sensitive, countered through The Playlist (through his people) that it wasn’t just about money. He is an artist and h e doesn’t like to repeat himself.

Yeah.

The turn came today as a bald publicist who would prefer not to be named, who’s written about 15% of everything you’ve ever read Nikki Finke byline, put forward SummitGate’s current thinking. They really want to have Ross back. They don’t really want to pay him what he’s asking. But they really want him, not only because is is good and already up to speed, but also, no doubt, because Jennifer Lawrence is a good, loyal person and doesn’t want to end up making the sequel with someone she’s not already comfortable with. It’s also worth considering that SummitGate intends to be an ongoing business beyond Hunger and Twilight, so getting/extending their rep as anti-director won’t help them. So we get the Puppet Finke mouthing SummitGate’s argument.

First, she (sharing byline with Fleming) offers the laugher of trying to diminish the Playlist piece as, “these internet reports,” a mockery offered in a 100% internet report. But trust Nikki to tell you that what Playlist was told by Team Ross is “simply not accurate.” After all, she was told by Summit. And unlike those guys on that blog at Indiewire, she was one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Successful Hermits.

The SummitGate Argument:
Ross “knows the benefit of riding in a winner and not switching horses midstream.”
Ross “developed several serious historical dramatic projects under his deal at Universal that didn’t get off the ground.” (emphasis added by me)
“Ross developed a tight bond with everyone involved in the film, including cast.”

Well, duh.

The simple truth is that both sides want to continue this marriage. Obviously, with almost 2 billion in theatrical grosses and a net return of at least $1 billion likely to fill SummitGate coffers through the life of this franchise, Gary Ross no doubt thinks $40 million would, at minimum, be fair as his take home for building the four-film machine for them. Yes, he makes a lot of money doing rewrites and in development. But $17-20 million in his personal bank account (agents, lawyers, taxes, and others would eat the difference) gives him some real security.

And for the director/co-writer of four films to be paid, at best, 2.5% of the NET revenues on a franchise like this does not seem excessive or abusively demanding.

One thing Nikki and her masters are right about is that, in the end, this will probably come together. Summit was lucky to land Bill Condon to do the last two Twilight movies… but it worked for him as well. That was threading the needle. If the ongoing perception of SummitGate is that they will show you the door as soon as they make some money on your work, the list of directors who fit their aspirations will get smaller and smaller. This remains, greatly, a business of relationships.

And if Gary Ross has to settle for 5 years of his professional life going for $20 million… $25 million… well… ya know… he’d have a legacy… he might improve as a director (he’s a decent director, but still a writer first)… he’d have the career lesson of a steady, defined gig, and the money doesn’t exactly suck.

In an industry of few sure things, one thing is sure. We know that SummitGate is NOT going to lose money on paying Gary Ross $40 million for the next 3 films. Step up. Stop being greedy pigs. Do it like the grown up studios. And get on with it already.

And Deadline & Playlist… you should both be embarrassed.

Friday Estimates by Hungry Klady III

Ah… nothing much to report on The Hunger Games‘ success (now running well ahead of the biggest Twilight film, looking at $350 as a minimum in the US and $700m worldwide), aside from the JournoWhore War between Gary Ross’ people and SummitGate.

American Reunion won’t open to the number of either of the two sequels to the leggy hit of 1999. But considering that the actors in the films have establish stable, but not skyrocketing careers, this is hardly a bad number. Easter/Passoevr weekend seems an odd time for this material, though one can forgive the thinking that they were out of Hunger Games way three weekends out. (BZZT! Didn’t work out that way.)

Titanic 3D is also… okay. The numbers are better than Beauty & The Beast 3D and not as good as The Lion King 3D. Honestly, I expected a bit better than this. But 3D is not always your friend. Personally, I think they could have done this number or better with just the beautiful 4k print. Thing is, they too are getting hit with THG fever. And unlike American Pie, the big chunk of the audience for Titanic is EXACTLY the audience for The Hunger Games.

Still, the big story for Titanic 3D will be international. There are major markets that never got the film in its first release and the 3D market overseas is much healthier at this point than here at home. We could surely see a $70m gross here and hundreds of millions overseas for this title.

Also Notable: 21 Jump St cracked $100m yesterday. The Lorax will crack $200m this weekend.

It’s interesting that as the death of stars continues to be discussed, all three films at the top of this weekend’s chart will be actor/star driven (J-La now qualifies) and even Jump St has a star of a sort. I think, perhaps, the problem the media has with this is… these are not their stars.

DP/30: American Reunion, actor Seann William Scott

BYOB Passover

Fandango’s Quarter: Episode 2

It turns out that AMC added 3000 screens to the Fandango electronic ticket-selling network in February, which represents about 15% of all Fandango screens. I wasn’t aware of this when I did a brief piece of the Q1 press release yesterday.

There is also a new promotional relationship with Yahoo!, though I wouldn’t give that a whole lot of significance in this quarterly uptick of 127% over last year.

Obviously, Fandango isn’t breaking down the numbers, but it suggests that the actual uptick in sales is more like 100%- 110% when compared to the same network that was in place in Q1 2011. Still impressive. And still all about The Hunger Games, the kind of audience that THG brings, and the kind of anticipation of sell-outs that this specific franchise represents.

And I’d like to point out again that I consider Fandango staff to be doing their jobs by presenting their numbers in as attractive a way as possible. They are selling Fandango not only to consumers, but to Wall Street. It is the job of journalists to do more than rewrite press releases.

Nothing Against Fandango, But…

FANDANGO BREAKS RECORD WITH BEST-SELLING FIRST QUARTER IN COMPANY HISTORY
The Nation’s Leading Moviegoer Destination Reports Dramatic 127% Year-Over-Year Ticketing Surge

LOS ANGELES — April 5, 2012 — Fandango, the nation’s leading moviegoer destination, announced today that it achieved its best first quarter in the company’s nearly 12-year history, with a 127% surge in year-over-year ticket sales, a 58% percent year-over-year increase in monthly visitors (totaling 33 million), and its top quarterly mobile percentage (23%) of total tickets sold.

Well, duh!

I am happy for them. And I do think that it is a show that they, like all online movie ticket sellers, are now a mature business.

But this record starts and ends with The Hunger Games.

It’s simple. What drives pre-sold tickets… which, remember, adds to the cost of the ticket? Fear of sell-outs. When is the last time there was a real fear of sell-outs in the first quarter of a year?

Tick, tick, tick…

Passion of the Christ, maybe? 300?

Avatar did a LOT of business in Q1, but the heat was less intense after New Years. Alice In Wonderland is the only other Q1 $100m opener… but none of the “I have to see it now or I will die” heat of Hunger Games.

So hooray for Fandango. But it will never be a business that evolves beyond the vagaries of hits and misses.

DP/30 As Art: Jennifer Lawrence

Someone who goes by Emese and describes herself as “21 years old. Series junkie. Fan vidder. Physics student. Hungarian. Girl.” took a moment from the DP/30 with Jennifer Lawrence and made art out of it. Sanj brought it to my attention. And here it is for you to see. For more from Emese, check out her site…

DP/30: American Reunion, directors Jon Hurwitz & Hayden Schlossberg

Embedding The Friedmans

The folks at SnagFilms are offering up Capturing The Friedmans now… and here is the first 2 minutes to entice you… interesting strategy…

BYOB

Home Entertaiment Hysteria (Thanks, Deadline)

I generally stay away from anything David Lieberman repurposes at Deadline, as most of the analysts he cribs from – openly – are talking out of their asses. Why did Nikki Finke hire a guy to regurgitate analysts reports without any insight? Because that is the standard of “journalism” at Deadline.

This is yet another of the diminishments of journalism these days. It’s not just Deadline. The idea of printing analysts as though they have The Answers because they have a job, without any thought, much less reporting, is pathetic, and has led to a class of analysts who are writing hyped-up headlines and throwing out new ideas of what’s next, one more extreme than the other, even if the same person ends up contradicting himself within 2 quarters almost every time. (Yes, I am looking at you, Rich Greenfield).

Not only that, but they all contradict each other daily… so it’s like saying that watching Around The Horn on ESPN is the same as reading the box score. BZZT!

But I digress…

Today, Lieberman ran a particularly stupid regurgitation of Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne’s report pitting Ultraviolet against Netflix… and in typical Deadline hyperbole, chuckled, “Moguls will need a stiff drink nearby…” (can you feel my eyes rolling?)

Thickening the gruel as much as I can, the report claims that Netflix’s cost per view for feature films is just 48 cents per movie and that compared to the cost of buying or even renting, this will drive down DVD sales further.

But it leaves out all of the key points that suggest this is nothing more than a fairly unconsidered notion.

1. Netflix is now, effectively, all but out of the studio feature streaming business.

There is still plenty of indie content and they will continue to add major indies, like The Weinstein Company and Lionsgate (there via EPIX) and DreamWorks Animation, but right now, the only major studio streaming as a matter of course (there are odd windows that still pop up) is Paramount. This is now the norm and there are no expectations that Netflix will be pursuing any addition major studio deals for now.

So… if you are interested in more than 80% of the studio product being released, you will have to look elsewhere. Netflix isn’t competing with Ultraviolet in any real way at this point.

2. As cute as it is to talk about DVDs massive decline as an unstoppable mud slide, which started in 2006 (ah, to remember 2008, when I was the only one writing about it), this analysts numbers seem to have stopped a year or so ago. The current numbers show that DVD seems to have, finally, plateaued and that there is some ongoing growth in Blu-ray. It’s not a huge growth business and as I have written before, I think the studios are already angling to get out of the hard disc business… but 5% growth in Q1 2012 over Q1 2011 is the first time the Home Entertainment divisions have seen actual growth in overall disc sales in the last 6 years.

3. Swinburne wags his finger and points out that studios have to get costs under control in the light of the DVD drop-off.

Wait! Now I get it. Lieberman got a report from 2009 and thought it was new! Makes perfect sense now.

Without sarcasm… we’re already there. This summer has a lot of very expensive films, but the reality that the studios have already made their adjustments and between staffing, real estate, production, and distribution, I don’t think there is a studio that hasn’t already cut back by at least 20% in the last 3 years.

4. As noted before, the studios are going full steam into the streaming business. There are all kinds of obstacles and tech issues involved. But the existence of Ultraviolet is not about increasing DVD sales… it is about setting up the future.

Much like Netflix, the studios will be happy to get out of the hard disc retail business. They lose the cost of production and distribution, as well as a chunk of what the retailer earns in the transaction. Even better if they can be the streaming distributor, therefore cutting down middle-man costs further.

The studios have done many stupid things, in my opinion. They have recklessly damaged their own DVD business and continue to take the theatrical business for granted when, in the next decade, it seems sure to become the primary differentiator in the revenue stream of film divisions, as the whole studio business becomes more the old studio business because of subscription-based post-theatrical.

In other words, individual households’ spends on, say, WB product, will not change very much from year to year, big hits to smaller hits. They will need to establish the brand and maintain interest. If the films all suck or are terribly low-rent, the subscription base will churn. But when a film can generate hundreds of millions in theatrical, that money will be above and beyond… unique dollars that cannot be produced by any other delivery system (unlike DVD vs Blu vs streaming vs cable packaging vs Ultraviolet, etc) and at a higher per person spend than any post-theatrical opportunity affords the studios.

But… speaking to the contempt Lieberman seems to have for the studios… they are not morons. They may be slow. They may be too greedy for their own good. They may forget to see everything they do in both micro and macro. But this guy Swinburne is, aside from the hysterical headline, predicting the past, not the future. That’s why he’s an analyst and not a studio bean counter. The studios can’t afford to think that way.

Cool Trailer: Woody In Roma