Weekend Estimates by No Pursuit Klady

Avengers: Age Of Ultron held well, though it has now fallen off the original by $59 million ten days into its run after being only $16m behind after last weekend. Still, the massive international numbers assure a gross well above $1 billion, though a domestic fall-off of somewhere between $100-150m may keep it from matching or passing the original… though the asterisked grosses from China could be decisive.

Hot Pursuit looks tiny next to Thor & Co, but $13.2 isn’t a disaster… just a fender-bender. Could write off about $5m or breakeven with all ancillaries and perhaps some international benefit from Ms. Vergara.

The Age of Adeline held really well, though all of the holds are reflecting the Avengers explosion that blew up the entire box office last weekend. (That and, of course, all the people who didn’t see Adeline and others because of The Big Fight. Ha. Ha. Ha.) It’s running a little behind John Wick, but this tiny film has a legit chance to be the biggest domestic grosser from Lionsgate-Summit – aside from Hunger Games and Divergent – in the last couple of years.

It looks like The D Train will go onto the “why we do VOD day-n-date” list for IFC after a straight theatrical release for the Sundance hit. Just $430 a screen on 1009 is no one’s idea of success. And indeed, while I can’t say this one was destined for big success either way, the pitfalls of small companies attempting wide-ish theatricals (just over the 1000 screen threshold) is clearly on display here. A significant financial risk in advertising… but not really enough to grab a wide enough audience to make it worth the risk.

Next weekend will be the big test for Ex Machina, which is probably past peak box office after its expansion of 750 screens to 2004. Can they hold screens? Is there another audience wave to come?

Four domestic indies had excellent per-screen numbers this weekend. The cleaned-up Apu Trilogy did $14,700 on a single screen. I Am Big Bird did $9300 on one. Sony Classics’ Saint Laurent, a surprise hit at Cannes last year, did $8800 per on 4. IFC found success on two screens with The Seven Five, drawing $7950 per on two screens. Happily, I can strongly recommend all four of these films (six, really).

Friday Estimates by Failed Avengers Pursuit Klady

(NOTE: Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s drop from last Friday’s preview-included number is 74%. The estimated drop above is based on a clean Friday number of $57.8 million.)

Going to keep it brief. A:AoU is doing great… not as great as the Friday matinee screeching ignoramuses suggest. A strong hold still puts it closer to $75m than $85m. But maybe they all think the word of mouth on the film is great and that there was $10m in lost revenue last weekend that is going to appear this weekend. Anything is possible. More likely… $75m… which is nothing to sneeze at… but isn’t the second biggest weekend ever. It’s #3. Boo-hoo. The reporting of numbers should not be an exercise in marketing… let the marketers do the advertising after the facts roll out.

Hot Pursuit is not a hit… but it’s not a carwreck, either… well, not this weekend, at least. Last summer, movies got into the 40s and 50s from this kind of launch. But I don’t think this one will have great legs, in spite of the great legs in the film (ha ha sexist fun ha). There is no indication that Reese Witherspoon has international muscle either, plus it is a comedy based on the idea of Southern vs Colombian, so I wouldn’t expect it to translate, simply meaning… no help there.

Ex Machina is taking its next big step, expanding from 1279 screens to 2004. The result on Friday was a 29% uptick, which is good. Of course, last weekend was depressed by the Avengers opening, so it’s a bit tricky to read the uptick. The Friday estimate, though up, is still well off the first Friday of expansion on the film. Still, a big success for A24, likely passing their previous #1 all-time, Spring Breakers, by the end of tonight.

The only new indie expected to get close to $10k per screen is the Chinese The Left Ear.

DP/30: Mad Max: Fury Road, George MIller

BYOB Humpday

Weekend Estimates by Not-So-Fast Klady

The hypesters were on overdrive about the Avengers: Age of Ultron opening and actually managed to make it seem like a disappointment in some quarters. Can’t get much more idiotic than that. #2 all-time domestic opening. #1 all-time worldwide opening. Over $625m in the pot after opening weekend with well over $275 million of that coming back to Disney/Marvel. The movie could have cost $300 million (not saying it did… but that it could) and $150m into worldwide marketing and still, it is a lock to go into profit (actual profit, not studio accounting profit) before the end of this month, if not the end of next week.

Now… I have said before and I still believe that Avengers 2, like Captain America 2, showed the vulnerable underbelly of Marvel… not because these films aren’t still doing sensational business, but because we are beginning to see the limitations of the genre vs. the very broad appeal they have achieved in theatrical. We haven’t seen a Matrix Reloaded response yet (to a film that was arguably a natural step for the series and a major step up in action and effects), but we can see that line being walked. And the long-term problem for Disney remains that pretty much every one of their event movies (now moving from three or four a year to seven or eight) has to make at least $500 million worldwide in theatrical (taking all ancillaries into account) in order to be bottom-line profitable. Avengers 2 also reminds us of the issue of age and the Marvel timeline. Robert Downey, Jr. just turned 50 and he’s already pushing the expiration date on his Tony Stark role. He’s apparently signed on for more work, including the “it’ll never happen” “Iron Man 4” and a likely $60m payday. But like all hot genres, first comes heat, then comes overabundance, then comes endless repetition, and then, it’s all over for a decade or so.

This SNL piece is very clever and smart and well done. But why isn’t it laugh out loud funny, which it feels like it should be? I think it’s because it’s too true… an insight into Marvel that we already feel. And, it seems to me, that there is a lack of some of the harshness and sexism that the missing Iron Man character (Lorne pushing for a Downey SNL appearance and not wanting to poison the well?) would surely bring to the piece.

Also, we have been suffering from a lack of cultural weight from these mega-movies for years now. It’s been 13 years since the first $100 million opening, Spider-Man. Only four of the 30 films to achieve this have been the first in a series. First Spidey, first Potter, first Hunger Games, first Avengers. None have been true originals (a group in which I would include films made from source material that doesn’t being a massive audience with it).

But the bigger question… do these films that have more than 10 million Americans in attendance on opening weekend have a strong cultural impact? Spider-Man did. The first Pirates sequel did. Dark Knight did. The overall Potter and Twilight franchises did, though neither launched at over $100 million. But something has changed. I would say that the first and second Transformers films had much more impact than the bigger-opening third and fourth. Whether a good movie like Toy Story 3 or a terrible one like Alice in Wonderland, these films seem nearly instantly irrelevant culturally. Since Dark Knight, the only film in this weight class that I think really had impact was the first Avengers, which felt not only like a coronation, but like the best of what Marvel had done to that date, all of the characters except Iron Man in a better groove than they had ever been in before (Iron Man brought his voice, unabated).

The most $100 million openings in a year is four. Most in a summer, three. We have two for the year already (one in the first week of “summer”) and EIGHT more with the potential to launch at $100m-plus (Mad Max: Fury Road, Tomorrowland, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, M:I 5, and Fantastic Four) this summer alone. Obviously, not all of them will make it. But I do believe the record of four in a year will be tied or broken before this summer is over. The two Disney films are the only “originals” in the group and neither is likely to get there, though they have a good chance of being amongst the leggiest films of the summer.

And for the record, next summer will have only The BFG as a big-expectation title that is not a sequel or reboot. As of today, that is it… unless you want to count Suicide Squad as an original (a reach).

And just look at what they are currently trying to shove into March 2017: Wolverine, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Allegiant 2, The Mummy, Ghost in the Shell, Animated Smurfs. If they want to push back, there is a Lego Batman film in mid-February and if they want to push forward, Furiouser is there in the middle of April.

In the present, even with a 65% drop, A2 wins next weekend with $65 million and nears $300 million domestic in 10 days… and near a billion worldwide.

So when your friends tell you about how theatrical is marginalized, give them a smack in the head. They deserve it. (Probably have for years.) And then, move to the other perspective. The theatrical movie business is healthy, in spite of everything that is being created to challenge it daily. But… what is the impact of all this short-run ecstasy? Or does it even matter?

As for the rest of the box office… zzzzzzzzz….

Nothing dared open against A2 on more than 150 screens. Cinderella shifted to second-run houses and got a nice bump on its way out. Nothing else in the Top 14 dropped less than 50%. That includes one of the two Cinderellas of winter/spring indies, Ex Machina (the other being It Follows), which didn’t do a big screen add against Iron Man, but may be too late to build any further, having to settle for $16m – $17m, which will be plenty to become the top A24 movie.

Nice per-screens on tiny counts include Iris, Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck, and Welcome to Me.

I think that Heck, which debuts on HBO Monday, could actually make some nice money in post-HBO theatrical. People would come to theaters with great sound and a group experience for this film, even if they can get it on HBO. Won’t happen much, but should.

Friday Estimates by Kladytron

It’s the second best opening day (by estimate) in North America. It will likely be the biggest opening worldwide, breaking the $500 million mark for the first time ever (though it is worth keeping in mind that this is a very new category and #2 all-time happened just a month ago with Furious 7‘s $398 million. Like the $100 million opening (A2 will be the 30th in 14 years), $300 million worldwide openings are an eye-popping stat that once seemed impossible and is now expected annually (14 since the first in 2005, though this one relies on worldwide day-n-date openings, which are less rare than they were, but still not ubiquitous).

Although this opening day is estimated to be $2 million higher than the previous Avengers, the trend in these last three years has been to more front-loading. So Avengers‘ $207 million domestic opening record may be safe. But if so, A2 will still be #2 all-time. And the worldwide opening record of $484 million will almost surely fall.

It is absurd to discuss any notion of disappointment to come with numbers like this, but… Avengers did 3.85x worldwide opening. And the real challenge for Avengers: Age of Ultron will be to manage that kind of multiple again. And even if it does, after a record-beating $500 million worldwide opening, that would still be short of $2 billion. In that rarefied air, there is Hulk-sized profit. Even a less-than-generous reading of all the numbers says that A:AoU will be hundreds of millions into profit in theatrical alone. But at this level, studios turn into “size queens” and want to threaten every record. And this does not seem to be where this one is going. It will just have to settle for being the #3 film of all-time and only the fourth to crack $1.5 billion. Let the tears flow.

Nothing else is likely to gross as much as $7 million this weekend domestically.

Opening on just 10 screens, Carey Mulligan’s fireworks show Far From The Madding Crowd will do about $15k per-screen, well off of A:AoU‘s per-screen, but beating out all others.

And Ex Machina is now on the descent, adding a few more screens, but off 58% against the Avengers onslaught and likely off in the high 40s for the weekend. Still, the film will pass the $10 million mark today, only the second A24 release to do so.