Friday Box Office Estimates

Focus unlikely to open to $20 million, which is not good news for any of the already superstar-deprived studios. The Lazarus Effect heads right back into the grave. Fifty Shades of Grey continues to drop like a pair of Anastasia’s panties.

And Oscar bumps arrive, but in minor fashion, for Birdman (estimated $530k Friday from last week’s $247k) and Still Alice ($750k from $685k).

Friday Box Office Estimates

Not unexpectedly, Fifty Shades of Grey takes a big Friday-to-Friday drop, but still still dominate the weekend chart. Kingsman falls less sharply, as it settles into its sharpened, bouncy legs. Newcomer The Duff, released by Lionsgate for CBS Films, has a modest, but not Mortdecai launch that will actually be Top 4 all-time for CBS (out of 18 titles released). McFarland USA opens soft for Disney, but could find itself headed up the chart if it finds the family audience through the weekend. And Hot Tub Time Machine 2 opens to half what the original did.

Friday Box Office Estimates

50 Shades of Grey is not exactly as earth-shattering a grosser as has been made out in the press, but it is mighty impressive nonetheless. It’sjust behind American Sniper as the best “opening” Friday of the year, though it had Thursday screenings. And it seems unlikely to match The Passion‘s February opening record of $83.8 million, but even if it did, Passion did $125 million by the end of opening weekend after a Wednesday opening. But again… super-strong not-so-record-breaking numbers.

Significantly behind 50 Shades, but still looking like the #4 opening of the year to date (not including American Sniper), is Kingsman: The Secret Service, which is a lot more kinky than 50 Shades. Look for a three-day in the mid-20s and a four-day just over 30.

American Sniper will crack $300 million domestic this long weekend. The only other Best Picture nominee still in the Top 10 is The Imitation Game, which is closing in on an $80m domestic gross.

What We Do In The Shadows leads in indie per-screen with about $4k-per yesterday on 5.

Friday Box Office Estimates

A year ago, The Lego Movie opened on this weekend and blew people away with a $69 million launch. Spongebob will not quite do that, but with what looks like $50 million-plus, the film will certainly crack the Top 5 all-time February openings. With Fifty Shades of Grey coming next weekend and American Sniper breaking records, 2015 is getting off to a remarkable start. Jupiter Ascending could hit $20 million for the weekend… or not. But American Sniper has a good chance of pushing past it to take the #2 slot for the weekend. And Seventh Son may well do $7 million for the 3-day.