Friday Box Office Estimates

Regardless of whether Age of Adaline or Furious 7 ends up in the top slot this weekend, it seems sure to be the 2nd worst 3-day #1 of 2015, ahead of only Chappie‘s $13.3 million launch last month. We see this kind of weekend about 4 times each year, often in early September and December and a couple times in the first 4 months of any given year. In this case, it is the lull before next week’s storm of Avengers: Age of Ultron.

The only really happy box office stories this weekend are the expansion of Ex Machina, which makes the massive leap from 39 screens to 1255 and lands with around $4k per screen. And Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck , which is on just 3 screens, but is looking at over $50k per screen on this post-Coachella weekend.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Furious 7 had already passed $1 billion worldwide thanks to nearly 3-to-1 overseas box office to domestic. That isn’t to say it’s not doing great at home. It seems sure to join the still ultra-elite $800m international club and has a shot at the $900 million+ club, which includes only the final Potter and the two mega-Cameron films. What is most remarkable is how we feel the cultural impact of this film as felt in… well, nothing. Paul (rhymes with) Blart: Mall Cop 2 is about a third off the start of the original. But given the family nature of the film, $20m+ is still likely for the weekend and it could actually surpass F7. It could also come close to playing like the also-eviscerated-by-critics first film. So somewhere, Kevin James is saying “Blart you,” even if the opening is overshadowed by Furious 7‘s third weekend. And the Jason Blum special, Unfriended, will not break any records with this opening, but again is inexpensive enough to make this a relatively successful launch. Not so much Monkey Kingdom, which is another case of the mighty Disney brand not flexing its muscles as you would expect with a quality family film.

Friday Box Office Estimates

We are in the middle-time of April, when if you have a big movie, you want to wait for summer, but there is clear opportunity for modest success. Still, only Fox took a shot at an opening slot this weekend, with The Longest Ride, which tries to mix the romantic weepy thing the country southern thing. And though it won’t compete with Furious 7 for the top spot on the chart and will be well behind Home by the end of the weekend, it’s s decent opening for a movie without a name star. (Why didn’t Fox hold it until after Tomorrowland and use it as summer counterprogramming?) Another strong film from A24, Ex Machina, opens on four screens to what will be over $50k per screen… almost exactly the opening number of A24’s While We’re Young. Like It Follows, this is likely to be a “cult hit” for decades to come… and remembered as an underachiever at the box office.

Friday Box Office Estimates

It’s the 13th best opening day of all time and the second best opening day outside of the summer/holiday windows. But no matter how over-hyped this opening for Furious 7 gets, it will still be remarkable. If the 3-day trajectory is the same as the previous film in the franchise, it would be a $167m weekend. We’ll know tonight whether the opening day was reflective of an expanded audience or an enormous front-loading on opening day. It Follows adds 437 screens, but drops 35% on Friday.