Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for August, 2015
Friday Box Office Estimates
War Room, a faith film getting a Tri-Star release via a Sony Home Entertainment deal, had the best Friday opening of the year in the category. It’s not close to the massive openings last year of Son of God and God’s Not Dead, but it was enough to win the day on Friday with just 1,135 screens on a weekend that will pretty surely be the weakest of 2015. Also opening wide is TWC’s No Escape, a generic title and a marketing campaign that was more escape than release. But the most impressive number of the weekend is WB’s summer closer, We Are Your Friends, which will struggle to get to $1000 per screen on 2,333. Stunning.
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Straight Outta Compton had a reasonable opening-Friday-to-Friday drop, neither particularly strong nor weak. The rest of the weekend will show how strong the film’s legs will be. Regardless, SOC will crack $100 million today. There are three wide openings this week. Sinister 2 opened 38% off the original’s Friday, suggesting $11.2m for the weekend. Hitman: Agent 47, which opened 42% off its opening Friday (which was its third day of release), suggesting a $7.7m total, at best, for this weekend. And American Ultra… an original… opened to almost the exact same number as Adventureland, which was on almost 1,000 fewer screens in April 2009, right on the heels of Twilight.
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As we reach the end of the summer season, one last hit in Straight Outta Compton, a success that has white box-office analysts sounding a bit too surprised. The question is, how will the film hold over the weekend? There are various models, but no one will know until tonight’s box office. But retro giveth and retro taketh away, as The Man From U.N.C.L.E., which was a bad idea from start to one-sheet, won’t see the right side of $15 million. WB will hope for some international love, but the only thing close to a box office draw is Guy Ritchie, who has not shown he can draw a crowd on his name alone. Mistress America opens strong on four with $7600 per screen.
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Do critics have an effect on box office? A long-argued question, but MCN has long believed that only a near-unanimous dislike of a movie can actually move the needle. And Fantastic Four has been panned almost universally. But that doesn’t mean that more traditional box-office disablers, like marketing, concept, and genre fatigue, are not also in play. Whatever the cause, Fantastic Four will be the worst Marvel-branded opening since 2012’s Ghost Rider 2 and should open to around half the opening gross of any Marvel-controlled production. Nothing so great about openings for The Gift, Ricki & The Flash or Shaun The Sheep either. Nor do holdovers show any added strength against a weak line-up of newcomers this weekend. Indies are led by $10k+ per screen showings by The Diary of a Teenage Girl and Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet.
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Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation opened to really good reviews and pretty much the same ol’ M:I box office. The biggest of the M:I movies, Ghost Protocol, opened in December, making opening comparisons untenable. The domestic box office total could be anywhere from $175-$250m. Meanwhile, the film is all about international, where it seeks to crack the $500 million mark for the first time, particularly in China, which could add another $150 million or more. Vacation didn’t find enough nostalgia or kids looking for edgy humor to do too much more than Hot Pursuit. And the $30m+ budget is looking fat, not lean, at this point. The hard summer for comedy – and for Warner Bros – continues. And a good weekend for the indies, with The End of The Tour, The Best of Enemies, and Listen To Me Marlon all delivering strong numbers in limited runs.
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