Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for February, 2017
Friday Box Office Estimates
Get Out is an ironic hit on #OscarWeekendSoRacial. Will the trajectory of the film across the weekend be horror movie or comedy date film? Fifty Shades Darker continues to drop like a lead balloon, but will pass $100m domestic and $300m worldwide today as its producer prepares to present the Oscar telecast. Lion continues to expand, and Hidden Figures stays slightly ahead of La La Land at the domestic box office (but way behind internationally). Animated Feature nominee My Life As A Zucchini opens as the only $10k+ limited/exclusive.
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Lego Batman rolls along, though it is not up to par with The Lego Movie and doesn’t bode well for the future Lego-branded titles that don’t have the most powerful franchise brands in the movie business. Fifty Shades Darker is more than 40% off the first of the series, but it will still cross $100m+ domestic. Newcomer The Great Wall is outperforming low expectations, but hardly a hit. Fist Fight is looking at the worst Ice Cube opening in over a decade. And Fox doesn’t find much interest in A Cure for Wellness, sold as horror/thriller in-betweener.
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-30%. -16%. +100%.
Those opening day drops for each of the “sequels” that opened on Friday. As you can see, John Wick 2 doubled its launch (and also its budget). Of course, even if it doubles its overall worldwide gross, JW2 is “only” a $175m worldwide movie. Lego and 50 Shades were $470m and $570m worldwide, respectively. Both “sequels” will be profitable. But how much will those original grosses drop when all is said and done?
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Opening on Super Bowl weekend can be treacherous. Sunday is already the softest day of the box office weekend, but on Super Sunday, it’s positively limp. Last year, Universal counter-programmed the event with a Coen Bros movie, which did okay for a Coen Bros movie. This year, Paramount went out with the genre that tends to fall like a stone on Sunday anyway, horror, and released the reboot Rings, which will win the weekend with a bigger launch than Hail, Caesar!, but not close to the #1 movie last SB weekend, Panda 3. The other newcomer, The Space Between Us, has a lot of space between it and the top.
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