Posts Tagged ‘Factotum’

Best Actor, Best Actress Chart

Thursday, February 22nd, 2007
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG)
Peter O’Toole – Venus
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG)
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Penelope Cruz – Volver

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG)
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG)
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Charts

Thursday, February 22nd, 2007

BEST PICTURE

The Departed (BFCA) The Queen Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble)
Babel (GG)
Babel (GG) The Departed (BFCA) The Queen Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble)
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble)
Babel (GG) The Departed (BFCA) The Queen Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA) Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble) Babel (GG) The Departed (BFCA)
The Queen
The Queen Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA) Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble) Babel (GG)

The Departed (BFCA)

You think you know any better? I can argue every one of these scenerios wih absolute conviction. And you know what the answer will be?

Me neither.

BEST DIRECTOR

Director – Film
Comment
Martin Scorsese – The Departed (GG) (BFCA) (DGA)
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel ((DGA)
Stephen Frears – The Queen (DGA)
Paul Greengrass – United 93

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA) vs The Queen (GG)
Michael Arndt vs Peter Morgan
Pan’s Labyrinth
Guillermo del Toro
Babel (WGA)
Guillermo Arriaga
Letters From Iwo Jima
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Writer(s) – Film
Comment
The Departed (WGA)
William Monahan
Likely.
Borat
Sacha Baron Cohen; Anthony Hines; Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Phillips
Notes On A Scandal
Patrick Marber
Little Children
Todd Field; Tom Perrotta
Children Of Men
Alfonso Cuarón; Timothy J. Sexton; David Arata; Mark Fergus; Hawk Ostby

Week Twenty – 3 Days to Go Auld Lang Syne

Thursday, February 22nd, 2007

Phew…

Almost there…

What’s left to say?

It does matter who wins… mostly to those who win.

The media efforts to rustle up comprehensive coverage this week are painful enough to me more sad than laughable. Someone mentioned a poll of three Academy members in one outlet. Oy.

And so, as it ends, we count our fingers and our toes. We make sure the baby isn’t somehow broken. We get a few thrills, a few disappointments, and a few trips to the bathroom. We pray for Ellen to be funny and for someone to say something that’s really memorable.

All last night, Fox ran promos for “Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader?” and for those of us who are still revving our engines on this, the answer is not a nice one. A 5th grader knows he/she wants ice cream, cake, no bath, and an open bedtime. We have such an abundance of likeable films and likeable people that we don’t know what we want.

The battle for 2008 has already begun, as consultants are pushing their favorite organ monkeys out there to pimp their rides for next year, newspapers are trying to make appointments now to get into the studio offices before awards budgets are set, and the internet set is already plotting on how to get further up the food chain or to find a place to sleep far from the maddening hype.

Me? I have my tickets for Austin, New York, Bermuda, and Dallas. And that’s just March. Woo wee! Different places, different people, and different movies. Thank you to Sid Ganis… for not listening to any of the maniacs who want another month of this endless campaign.

There is only one real question left… who’s going win Best Picture? And Academy members far and wide will make a passionate argument for “what everyone knows.” The only problem is, they all seem to disagree. However, the awards are getting younger this year. I know of at least two people who are taking children under 10 to the show.

I gotta say, I am looking forward to the Independent Spirit Awards more than the Oscars for the first time in a long while. And it’s not just because Yerxa and Berger will get their awards along with the other producers at that event. (Oh… yeah… Indie Spirits are as predictable this year as the Oscars aren’t.) And it’s not for the awards. It’s for the cocktail party of it all. It will, simply, be nice to see a lot of people who really aren’t a big part of the Oscar season. They are on another track… another excellent track. And for the most part, the smiles will be sincere, the hugs warm, and the cocktails cold. Hallelujah.

And that’s really all I have to say about that.

Again… really… I like a whole lot of people who I have met in the course of this season. It has been incredibly civil. And even when I take a swipe at a studio exec, I may be deeply fond of much of his staff. Even in his odd purgatory, Bill Condon has shown the kind of guy he really is (a good one). In his ascendance, Guillermo del Toro remains the guy he is (a good one). In their shyness, the screenwriters have shown the people they are (Morgan and Marber are probably the most social, the Great Monahan the most shy this year.) The Three Amigos really are amigos, even if the Dogma95 crew really wasn’t. There have been a few shitty rumors, but basically, this was a clean season. For all the “season should be longer” bleating, strategy cost many movies their potential awards, more than anything else.

Hell, I even found some of the producers this year to be amongst my favorite people in a season of artists.

What I do know is that I have a bunch of really good films worth watching a few more times. And for as many weak moments as there were in 2006’s films, that is a blessing indeed.

There will be some sort of response to whatever happens on Sunday night. But it’s time to move along. We’ll all be happier after a view months of something different.

I thank you for your attention and input. Have a lovely off season.

Week Nineteen – 10 Days to Go Dead Horse Beating 101

Thursday, February 15th, 2007

The wrap-up, now ten days away from “the envelope please,” of the 2006/07 season really isn’t about the movies. It’s about the frou-frou. It’s about the media plays that failed, the “Oscar bloggers” who had less to do this year than in most, the flight of the Dartees, the laid-back success at Warner Bros, the producers who get Oscars (word has it that all five Little Miss Sunshine producers will be allowed to take the stage at the Kodak if the film wins, by anointment of the Oscar powers that be), the three nominations that Dreamgirls didn’t get, and far too few stories to go around.

But what about the movies?

Well, everyone liked something. Generally, the hate levels were down. And while nothing particularly unexpected is expected a week from Sunday, there really isn’t much opportunity for anything remarkable to happen.

Really… think hard. I know that the Royal You will be royally thrilled if your personal favorite wins a major award or two. But what could possibly happen this year that would blow the roof off the place? The Departed could win along with Marty… but it’s been so about Marty that the occurrence would be “nice.” Little Miss Sunshine could win Best Picture and Best Screenplay… nice. Babel could win Best Picture and Best Score. The Queen could win Actress, Screenplay and… nice. If Letters From Iwo Jima wins anything, it will be a bit of a surprise… but where is the constituency for the film in a nation that hasn’t seen the film?

It will be a nice Oscar ceremony. The biggest danger is that Laura Ziskin will overproduce the show, chasing an audience of under-30s who wouldn’t know to tune in if there was something remotely hip worth watching.

You want a starter list for next year? Here you go …

Charlie Wilson’s War, Che, Elizabeth 2: The Golden Age, Things We Lost In The Fire, The Savages, American Gangster, Margaret, Sweeney Todd, Love In the Time Of Cholera, Reservation Road, The Kite Runner, The Other Boleyn Girl, Youth Without Youth, Synecdoche, New York, Lust, Caution, The Feast Of Love, The Brave One, Margot At The Wedding, Eastern Promises …

… and I didn’t even look that hard.

But 2007 may well be remembered as the year that the Academy unjumped the shark, which is to say, the indulgence of The Season may actually be ready to hit the rear view mirror. Of course, this doesn’t mean that people who smell the potential of victory won’t still lose their mind every year, spending more money chasing a statue than they will ever net on the movie. But for all that is wrong with the system and for all that will always be wrong with this high school beauty contest… the event seems to have forgotten about promoting itself this year and people just voted for movies and performances and work they liked. Short on love… big on like.

Maybe next year only 75% of the contending films will hire the Dartees, suddenly aware that only Cynthia Swartz’ favorite (see Crash, The Queen) will actually get a Best Picture nod out of the hire. Maybe Tony Angellotti will get a reputation for good-mouthing movies. Perhaps Michele Robertson will have a karma reversal, though I don’t know why she would. Maybe Terry Press will be the hot new consultant in town, a Jet to the Dartees’ Sharks. Could Lisa Taback push Harvey or Sony back into the Oscar winner’s circle? Perhaps Karen Fried will see what it’s like when Focus actually has a movie that could work. Could Murray and Ronni and Nadia do anything but keep delivering for their myriad clients? Will Block-Korenbrat and MPRM and BWR merge to make MMBBRKWRR?

And will Alan Nierob leave Mel Gibson after Mel goes on the wagon and starts attending schul? Can Tom Terrific rehabilitate himself? Is John Travolta in a dress just a little too much information? Will Viacom A and Viacom B finally get back together for the sake of the kids? Will Benecio del Toro be next year’s mortal lock for Best Actor? Can Johnny sing? Can Cate Blanchett finally win Best Actress for playing another Queen Elizabeth, her second time at bat?

These are the important questions… right?

Or perhaps we should all spend the next week prepping to really enjoy Oscar night the way we haven’t in a while… a celebration of good movies and good people with a lot of talent. Who wins? Who cares? It’s a joy just to be there!

Sure, there will be some sleepless nights for the poor schlubs (neither poor nor schlubs) who actually have to worry about getting up and making speeches… or worse, not getting up and not making speeches.

Me? I’ll enjoy the prospect of falling in love all over again. Bitch and moan all I want, it’s the love that keeps bringing me back, the hatred in the media that makes me sorry I did, and the movies that linger on that keep reminding me… I was right in the first place. And that’s all that really matters.

Best Actor, Best Actress Charts

Thursday, February 15th, 2007
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG) He just keeps rollin’ along
Peter O’Toole – Venus Probably not around enough to get the momentum to push out Dada
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness A huge hit but no campagning makes Will a losing boy
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson He might someday be king of the world
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond Many more nods to come

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG) The second true lock.
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Penelope Cruz – Volver

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Norbit ain’t Shakespeare, but it is a big hit.. another big hit. Feeling more right than before
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine The serious veteran
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children The comeback former kid
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed Would be a shocker… but so was the nom, which everyone now seems to feel good about
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond The only one who really can’t win

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Best Picture miss could have been a problem… but is there really someone who can beat her?
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal Wonderful performances
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine The charmer
Adriana Barraza – Babel Very well liked… will someone give her a job
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel Glamour puss… not an Oscar winner, in spite of a wonderful performance

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Charts

Thursday, February 15th, 2007
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
The Departed (BFCA) vs Babel (GG) vs
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, SAG Ensemble)
Most slots curently have two major competitors… this one has three… ask anyone on any day and you will get a different answer or none at all.
Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
Rarely have we seemn a darker horse… that actually has a chance to win
The Queen
Seems the least likely… but this year, that is a spot with possibilities

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
Martin Scorsese – The Departed (GG) (BFCA) (DGA) Your winner. One of two real locks.
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel ((DGA)
Stephen Frears – The Queen (DGA)
Paul Greengrass – United 93

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA) vs The Queen (GG)
Michael Arndt vs Peter Morgan
These seem to be the two possibilities… but the truth is, one of the others could jump up
Pan’s Labyrinth
Guillermo del Toro
A favorite around town these days
Babel (WGA)
Guillermo Arriaga
Letters From Iwo Jima
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
The Departed (WGA)
William Monahan
“Rome… lotsa wops, no pizza.” “Wake up and smell the coffin.” Those are the lines that didn’t make it!
Borat
Sacha Baron Cohen; Anthony Hines; Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Phillips
If voters think of it as a screenplay and not an improv… which won’t be easy
Notes On A Scandal
Patrick Marber
Cuts liek a knife… in other years, a likely winner
Little Children
Todd Field; Tom Perrotta
Some think this is the real threat… but the movie just hasn’t had enough attention lately
Children Of Men
Alfonso Cuarón; Timothy J. Sexton; David Arata; Mark Fergus; Hawk Ostby

Best Actor, Best Actress Charts

Thursday, February 8th, 2007
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG) Hard to beat with none of the potential competition working for it at all
Peter O’Toole – Venus Back in England after one appearance and a standing ovation
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness Could be a real surprise… but probably not
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson He could have taken this, but he would have to actually appear to give a shit
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond Great actor… not his year.

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG) Yeah.
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Penelope Cruz – Volver

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Will Norbit sink him for good? One Katzenberg cocktail party probably is not enough to matter
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children The best story of the year… but did enough people watch the movie?
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine Could win it
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed Mr. Home Town… he is an interesting dark horse
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond Thanks for playing… see you in a truly great role soon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Weird hum around her, again, thanks to no BP nod. But still… not winning would be a real slap in the face
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal The veteran, but just won
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine Really? The adorable kid vs the diva performance?
Adriana Barraza – Babel split
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel split

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Charts

Thursday, February 8th, 2007
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
Babel (GG)
Love it or hate it… but the “hate its” can’t vote against it, only for something else
The Departed (BFCA)
The adult’s movie movie of the year…. but it’s still a movie based on an Asian action movie
Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
If it had enough votes to be nominated, it has plenty of opportuiity to be the shock winner
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA) (SAG Ensemble)
Damaged badly by front runner status… came a week too early
The Queen
The fewest detractors, but still suffers from TV movie comments

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
Martin Scorsese – The Departed (GG) (BFCA) (DGA) It’s not going away… even if it feels a little anti-climatic at this point
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel ((DGA)
Stephen Frears – The Queen (DGA)
Paul Greengrass – United 93

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA)
Michael Arndt
The chance to embrace a well-liked film
The Queen (GG) (WGA)
Peter Morgan
A real chance to upset and win
Letters From Iwo Jima
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis
If the film gets more BP traction, could win in a suprise with only 4 chances for fans of the film to vote for their movie
Babel (WGA)
Guillermo Arriaga
If it wins this, it is surely the BP winner too
Pan’s Labyrinth
Guillermo del Toro
Would be the happiest surprise of the night, which is to say, it’s not impossible that The Love Man would be someone people want to vote for

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
The Departed (WGA)
William Monahan
So many great lines to remember
Borat (WGA)
Sacha Baron Cohen; Anthony Hines; Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Phillips
Wouldn’t be a shock if it won
Notes On A Scandal
Patrick Marber
A dark dark horse, but… if Borat and Departed split…
Little Children (WGA)
Todd Field; Tom Perrotta
A special movie that will be thought of in other ways first
Children Of Men
Alfonso Cuarón; Timothy J. Sexton; David Arata; Mark Fergus; Hawk Ostby
No real chance here. Enjoy the nod.

Week Eighteen – 17 Days to Go Driving In Neutral

Thursday, February 8th, 2007

Oh, we’re getting close.

Oh, nothing seems to be changing very much.

I am having this weird feeling that the movie no one is talking about is the movie that might shock them all. Explaining it logically, there is one comedy and four dramas. Of the four dramas, the one with the most muscle is Letters from Iwo Jima. Yes, some Academy voters do hate it. Yes, it doesn’t play as well on DVD as it does on a big screen. Yes, it is in a foreign language.

But if you are going to pick one of the four dramas to vote for, which one has a strong universal theme, a major league pedigree, and undeniable serious intent? Iwo Jima.

Of course, that begs the musical question, doesn’t Little Miss Sunshine have a big advantage in a tight race as the only comedy?

Answer: Maybe.

Doesn’t The Departed have a huge advantage by being the film with the highest domestic gross by more than double?

Answer: Maybe.

Isn’t The Queen in pretty great shape as the only movie of the five that really doesn’t have any haters fighting against it?

Answer: Maybe.

Is Babel the BP nominee most like last year’s upset winner, Crash, a series of stories on a theme of communication, featuring strong performances as characters overcome their seeming limitations?

Answer: Maybe.

What we do know is that it is very, very rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.

What we do know is that the last film that was more than about 10% foreign language to win Best Picture was… well… never.

What we do know is that no remake of another movie has ever won Best Picture.

What we do know is that no film has ever won Best Picture with its only acting nomination being for Best Actress.

So that eliminates all five nominees… so start again…

Or not.

There has been a lot of baby kissing and group hugs in the last week, but aside from a bunch of hype that Little Miss Sunshine had taken some dominant position – hype that might have killed its chances – and Eddie Murphy’s big momma belly in Norbit, nothing much has happened. Everyone keeps talking to their circle of Academy friends and each person seems to get a different answer. A wave of positivity from one person is followed by a list of negatives from another.

And the answer is… we just don’t know.

So why say more when there is so little to say?

(ADDED – The discussion actually does continue on the blog…)

Look for a wave of Oscar profiles on MCN over the weekend. And Lunch With David will feature another Oscar nominee this week and a chat with some very special Oscar envisioning guests.

Best Actor, Best Actress

Friday, February 2nd, 2007
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG) Way out ahead… far enough to trip
Peter O’Toole – Venus Due in L.A. on Monday… we’ll see
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness Could be a shocker… but not probably available enough
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG) Could lose… if she killed someone with her bare hands
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Penelope Cruz – Volver

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) After winning SAG, in addition to most everything else, looking like the winner
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine Still alive
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children The most happy nominee
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Not being beaten
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Chart

Friday, February 2nd, 2007
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
Babel (GG)
22%
Letters From Iwo Jima (Foreign- GG, BFCA)
21.5%
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA) (SAG Ensemble)
20%
The Departed (BFCA)
19%
The Queen
17.5%

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
Martin Scorsese – The Departed (GG) (BFCA) (DGA) Would be a stunner if he lost
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel ((DGA)
Stephen Frears – The Queen (DGA)
Paul Greengrass – United 93

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA)
Michael Arndt
Likely winner
The Queen (GG) (WGA)
Peter Morgan
Babel (WGA)
Guillermo Arriaga
Letters From Iwo Jima
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis
Pan’s Labyrinth
Guillermo del Toro
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
The Departed (WGA)
William Monahan
The likely winner, though Monahan is the most undervalued contributor to this great film.
Borat (WGA)
Sacha Baron Cohen; Anthony Hines; Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Phillips
Does it tickle the Academy funny bone to vote for it? It’s hard out here for a Kazakh
Little Children (WGA)
Todd Field; Tom Perrotta
Notes On A Scandal
Patrick Marber
Children Of Men
Alfonso Cuarón; Timothy J. Sexton; David Arata; Mark Fergus; Hawk Ostby

Week Seventeen – 24 Days to Go Tick Tock

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

What’s the worst thing that could have happened to Little Miss Sunshine?

As this week’s trendy pick to win Best Picture, LMS could easily be being set up to take a fall as it reaches the final leg of the race. It’s wondrously amusing to see people who screamed that Crash could never win last year take up the cause of the movie with no directing nod (not that it doesn’t deserve one) and the gimpy leg in Oscar eyes that is being a comedy. (For the SAG screamers, please note that the guild is 50/50 in the last decade, honoring Sideways, Gosford Park, Traffic, The Full Monty, and The Birdcage with the ensemble award in that period.)

On the flip side, no one really knows.

On the third side of this freaky coin… no one really cares.

It is the oddest turn in a rather unusual year, actually. With 24 days to go, after months of pretty much knowing that we would be close to exactly where we are, we have an Oscar season looking for a focus. And the driver that will bring baldy home hasn’t shown itself yet.

Final Oscar ballots went out yesterday, so it is all about to come together, like it or not. And of course, we will never know exactly what happens in the accounting office of Boring, Anal & We Know More Than You Do. But it sure feels like the ultimate Oscar Best Picture – is out there for the picking.

And like recent presidential elections, the real question is not where the committed voters are. The Babel lovers will vote for Babel again, The Friends of The Departed will know where they are inking, and so on. But where will the Dreamgirls votes go? Where will the very self-serious United 93 crowd head?

And keep this in mind… unlike the nomination process, where the notion of “We’ll give this nomination to this film to make up for it not getting this nomination” is a false notion, given that the nominations happen in branches, in the last round people are voting across the board. And indeed, when you are about to ink in the fourth or fifth vote for your favorite, a twinge of “how about giving one to them” can kick in.

More than in a long time, this is not a black and white battle. All of the movies nominated have lovers and haters… but mostly likers.

It’s possible to make 20 different legitimate arguments along the lines of, “Letters From Iwo Jima, Babel, and The Queen split the serious vote, The Departed loses a little to both those and on the light side to Little Miss Sunshine, so LMS wins,” or “Letters From Iwo Jima is the only serious picture with prestige talent and people are finally looking at it,” or “The hardcore serious goes Letters/Babel and the hardcore movie joy people go Sunshine/Departed, splitting both and letting The Queen be the easiest choice for the undecided middle.”

But the truth is, no one really knows.

And did I mention, no one really cares?

This will be the second lowest grossing group of films in the recent era of Oscar Best Picture nominees… after last year’s. But I would argue that even last year had more attractions, with George Clooney, the rising superstar Reese Witherspoon, a national discussion over Brokeback Mountain, a controversial Spielberg movie, and talk of a major last minute upset. This year… really… think about it… with Nicholson, Pitt, and Carrell without nominations, DiCaprio nominated for the lame Blood Diamond, what are people tuning in for? There is no film that is even eligible to win any more than six Oscars!

Will Smith has been working on I Am Legend, so the potential upset there has little media impact on tune in. Peter O’Toole, much as we love him, hasn’t had a hit in 25 years and hasn’t been around. Forest Whitaker deserved an Oscar for Bird, but he, too, hasn’t been a key part of a hit movie’s cast in 20 years. Helen Mirren is a fantastic actress and has never appeared in a movie that grossed over $42 million. Is someone going to tune in to see Al Gore? Are performances by (we hope) Beyonce and Jennifer Hudson going to draw anything?

When the ratings drop 12% this year, as a second straight year of low-grossers, fewer stars, and the women-only celebrity of Ellen DeGeneres in the host slot (the Jon Stewart hire boosted male viewership last year) have their effect, it won’t be the record low for the telecast. But it will the second straight year of a major drop.

And ironically, this is a show where, yet again, the shortened Oscar season is helping the Academy members think more independently, not less. Logic did dictate that Dreamgirls get nominated if only to improve viewership and the celebrity quotient. And if the film “replaced” Babel or Letters Form Iwo Jima, this would have made it the highest grossing group of BP noms on nomination morning since Lord of the Rings by almost $100 million, making the group more comparable to the years of Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan.

That said, they didn’t think that way. You have to go back 18 years to find a movie that was nominated with a smaller gross than Letters From Iwo Jima’s nomination morning’s $2.6 million. (That would be My Left Foot’s $2.1 million in 1989.) And still, that group of nominees had grossed more than this year’s group going into nomination morning.

If you look at the campaigns, you really can’t point a finger at the process working one way or the other. Team Warners went with the full Michelle Robertson zen technique on both The Departed and Letters From Iwo Jima (not always their preference, but a necessity given the players). Searchlight has a new team aboard with the same captains and ran their game in a very classic Searchlight fashion, spending on the Little Miss Sunshine release and then the DVD release in a way coordinated with their awards ad buys. Cynthia Swartz and 42 West led Team Miramax to the promised land on The Queen, with a relentless campaign that spent all season long, in spite of borderline numbers for the film up until the noms. And former Searchlighter Megan Colligan led Paramount Vantage to a Babel nod with a run that started at Cannes and just kept chugging along, turning a blind eye (well, an askance eye) to the many, many naysayers (including me).

None of these five nominees had a cakewalk. None was ever the frontrunner, in spite of endless media hype for some at some times. But they stayed the course and got their noms (deserved all around) and one will take home the Oscar for Best Picture.

And what have we learned?

Nothing, really.

I think we learned more about the media this year than about anything else. And this year was a shark jumper for the media in much the way the Gangs of New York debacle was for Harvey Weinstein. It’s never been the same since they got caught with their fist in the cookie jar. (Like the old folk tale, Harvey had too many cookies in his hand and wouldn’t release enough to get his hand out before the flashbulbs went off.)

This award season may well be remembered as The Year The Blog Rose. But it will surely be remembered more accurately as The Year Mainstream Media Imitated The Web, Sucked At It, And Spent A Lot of Time Trying To Cover Their Tracks By Attacking What They Failed To Match. Even the wonderful David Carr – and I truly adore that guy – has gotten some Hollywood jungle fever, taking a misstep that he would surely chide any other veteran reporter for … mistaking the news for opinion and opinions for news. (Of course, he outcharms us all in the process and I look forward to reading him on this beat for years to come. Like Scott & Dargis, his is untraditional, but entirely stimulating in a way completely worthy of the paper of record.)

But Traditional Media doesn’t suck in any inherent way. There are some mad skills on display there. But the line between the old and the new forms of media is not about reporting. It’s about tone. And it’s about how the media connects to the people they serve. But that is really another column…

And hopefully, by next week, that mysterious, elusive thing will show itself and the picture will start to clear up. And if not… there’s always February 25.

Best Screenplay

Thursday, January 25th, 2007
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA) Likely Sunday bone after big Saturday wins
Babel (BFCA) (WGA) Back-Up
The Queen Longshot
Letters From Iwo Jima Could possibly ride a wave
Pan’s Labyrinth Great get

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Borat (WGA) Could actually win this
The Departed (WGA) Still strong, could be consolation prize
Little Children (WGA)
Notes On A Scandal
Children Of Men

Best Actress

Thursday, January 25th, 2007
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG) One category with no surprises
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (GG/C) (SAG)
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal (SAG)
Kate Winslet – Little Children (SAG)
Penelope Cruz – Volver (SAG)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Still likely to be the lock
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (SAG)
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal (SAG)
Adriana Barraza – Babel (SAG)
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel (SAG)

Best Actor

Thursday, January 25th, 2007
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG) Looking like a machine
Peter O’Toole – Venus (SAG) Could surprise…. health/appearances will matter
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness (SAG) Could come up with a win
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond (Supporting – SAG) Not for The Departed
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson (BFCA) (SAG) Good on ThinkFilm… a movie star if he wants to be one

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine (SAG) Stronger for the run of noms
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Weaker for the loss of Best Picture
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed Could get interesting
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children (SAG) Thrilled beyond belief this morning
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond (SAG) Pleased to be here

Best Director

Thursday, January 25th, 2007
BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
Martin Scorsese – The Departed (GG) (BFCA) (DGA) Your winner
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima (BFCA) Could be your shocker… but would have to be in BP too
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel ((DGA)
Stephen Frears – The Queen (DGA)
Paul Greengrass – United 93 The most expensive nomination in history (one of two for the film)

Best Picture

Thursday, January 25th, 2007
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
Babel (GG) (PGA) (DGA) (SAG) Suddenly the one to beat
Little Miss Sunshine (PGA) (DGA) (SAG) The little yellow bus that could
Letters From Iwo Jima A real threat to pull the rug out from everyone… Pic, Director, Screenplay
The Departed (PGA) (BFCA) (DGA) (SAG) Needs to find a reason to rise
The Queen (PGA) (DGA) Happy to be here

Week Sixteen: 31 Days to Go And Now For Something You’ll Really Like … Again?!?!

Thursday, January 25th, 2007

And now, we start the 2007 Oscar season again for the last time…

Yes, Phase II (post-nom time, as it is called) 2007 may be the most wide open race in memory. The last time we were looking at as many of the 5 nominees that could really win was the year of Gladiator, Erin Brockovich, Traffic, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and Chocolat. Of course, what was very different that year was that all but one of the movies (Chocolat) either had or were on their way to crossing the $100 million mark. And the films all had a significant number of nominations.

This year, as I wrote a few days ago, the 9 open categories aside from The Top Eight (Picture, Director, Acting, Writing) have a total of 6 nominations from this year’s five Best Picture nominees. What does this mean? Maybe nothing. Or maybe it means that Academy members continue to vote their minds and that none of the Big Five was as well crafted as other pictures, like 6-time nomineePan’s Labyrinth.

Ironically, this also indicates – to me, at least – that the shorter season remains a very positive influence. Members, especially in their branch votes, have seen a lot of the films and made independent minded choices. Another month of marketing seems quite unlikely to lead to a wider group of choices, but instead, more time for the bigger pictures to push for more.

The odd circumstance of the spread voting makes it very, very possible that Dreamgirls will continue the role of being a top Academy film, sans Best Picture, and win more or as many Oscars as any other film. Think about it. Hudson, Murphy, Song, and say, Sound Mixing. There are only a couple of films with enough total nominations to get four wins. If people assume that Jennifer Hudson still wins Best Supporting Actress – and do any of us feel like assuming much of anything this week? – that takes Babel down to 5 opportunities, Little Miss Sunshine down to 4 and leaves The Departed and The Queen at 5 and Letters from Iwo Jima at 4.

Speaking of The Queen, last year’s super-stat was Cynthia Swartz’s “no film ever won Best Picture without an editing nomination.”

Stats are made to be upended. And if any year is not going to comply with stats – however expected most of what has happened so far remains – this seems to be the one. But if you take on Ms. Swartz’s clever analysis, which leaned towards Crash and away from Brokeback Mountain last season, it leaves only The Departed and Babel in the running for the win.

Paramount Vantage’s favorite Phase I Oscar start was that 28 times there have been two Supporting Actress candidates from the same movie. This was prophetic, as Babel got nominations for both Rinko Kikuchi and Adrianna Barraza. Beyond getting in, the stat gets fuzzy. This has happened five times in the last 20 years. Only in the case of Chicago did the film go on to win Best Picture. In one other case, the film was nominated for Best Picture (Working Girl). And in the other three cases, there wasn’t even a BP nod (Almost Famous, Bullets Over Broadway, Enemies, A Love Story).

Other stats working against the nominees include the fact that only one film has ever won Best Picture without a directing nod, Driving Miss Daisy. Does that mean the disqualification of Little Miss Sunshine? Oh yes… and it’s been 29 years since the last comedy, Annie Hall, won Best Picture.

Even after overcoming the lack of guild support, is it really possible for Letters From Iwo Jima to move to the winner’s circle with no acting nominations and only one branch nod aside from the directors, the writers, and sound editing?

As for The Departed, when was the last time a remake won Best Picture? 1956 with Marty, a remake from a TV version of the same.

Of course, my position is and has been that Phase II is a different race than Phase I. Once the field has been narrowed to five, the dynamic shifts. And there are a whole new set of questions to answer.

Will Warner Bros spend big on Letters From Iwo Jima now, even though they never really saw this film as having much commercial potential? A push could pay off handsomely if the film actually won. But if it doesn’t, it is good money thrown away after already achieving the nomination.

How much deeper in the hole will Paramount and Paramount Vantage go on Babel in order to race. Again, the nomination actually puts the film in position to come within $10 million of breakeven after ancillaries. With an extraordinary success in DVD, they could break even. But any additional millions in spending to chase the win would all be lost if they didn’t win.

The campaign for The Departed has been very laid back. Will that change? Will Mark Wahlberg, now Oscar nominated, finally feel like he is appropriately valued by the studio? (Recall problematic moments at the junket and premieres.) The re-release might pay for itself. But is a strategic shift forthcoming?

The Queen will continue to expand and spend. But with Sheen out, leaving the same central trio on the campaign trail, with Mirren still an apparent lock, how can they ramp things up any further?

And we all know that Little Miss Sunshine will continue its “Little Best Picture” push. But how hard? And can they overshoot the mark?

The media involvement in all this remains at issue. As the media negativity on Dreamgirls spread to the New York Times and Variety, did it have some effect on the missed nominations? Who knows?

My theory on how the noms went is that there may not have been any first ballot nominees this year. With six strong candidates – which include Dreamgirls, and now, obviously, Letters From Iwo Jima – 14% each (6% short of a nomination) is 84% of the vote, leaving 16% for all the other films out there. I don’t think that many people doubt that any of these six titles managed 14% of the vote. Then, in the second round, counting #2 votes, all the nominees could well have gotten in. If ever there was a year where it feels this way, this is it. And indeed, others could have been in when #2 votes were counted, but came up short of the Top 5.

Looking at the final vote, start with that same 14% times 5 and that’s 70% of the vote. Where will the other displaced 30% go? That, my friends, is the rub. And that is where is might be a fight or it might be already close to settled.

Does Little Miss Sunshine have a unique advantage as the one non-drama?

Does The Queen have every one of the 400 British Oscar voters votes that it didn’t get the first time lined up now?

Does the box office dominance of The Departed make it more attractive?

Is Babel the Crash of this year… and if so, will the filmmakers blush?

Does the Eastwood Mystique and a very serious, contemplative, war related story make Letters From Iwo Jima a potential winner?

The bottom line is that there is both more and less of a race right now than appears on the surface to exist. And the media influence is both more and less significant than it appears to be.

One problem I have with the daily analysis, both online and in Traditional Media, is that there tends to be a sporting event mindset. If you lose, the quarterback sucks. If you win, he’s the best ever. The only play that counts in many minds is the last play. And most of all, there is this ongoing insane notion that the Academy equals an objective analysis of the best films of the year. A nomination means that the movie is better than the other movie… or the lack, that there is worse. But of course, that is just self-indulgence at its best.

My rule remains the same… if you want to make that argument, be consistent. If the Academy left out Dreamgirls because “they just didn’t think it was that good,” then it also left out United 93 and Pan’s Labyrinth for the same reason. If the Golden Globes are unimportant because Dreamgirls didn’t get nominated in spite of winning the most Globes, it was equally irrelevant for Babel, which did get nom’ed. And if you think all five nominees “deserved” or “didn’t deserve” to be nominated this year… the same will be true next year and forever.

The only think that really changes, for a lot of writers, is their personal opinion. When David Carr finds himself apologizing for believing Dreamgirls would win Best Picture, does it matter to anyone whether he was 50 votes off of this nomination or 1000 votes? There is no objective standard for analysis. And apologizing – or taking any of this personally – is idiotic. And the Bagger, a very smart guy, will surely learn this lesson if he chooses to continue on this beat in years to come. This is not a zero sum game.

Also, for all the talk about December being out of favor as a launching pad and the murmur about Crash’s May launch, it should be pointed out that Little Miss Sunshine’s July 26 launch was the earliest this year, with Letters From Iwo Jima’s Dec 20 launch the latest. One went out on the last days of Sept and two went in October. So is late Sept/early Oct the new Oscar hot zone? Of course not. Oscar is in the details, not the release date. Some movies would have been better off in December and others better off in October. Every film needs its own strategy. Period.

Finally, a side note. The nominations as they connect to the MCN’s Top Ten Chart turned out to be numbers 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8. This is the second straight year when all the BP noms were in the Top Eight of critical consensus. Interesting. Another stat to rip up in the years to come. But as I have long written, the media’s primary involvement in the Oscar season is to narrow the field. And once again, it seems they have.

If you are curious, last year #7 (and the fourth highest ranked in the group of noms) won. That correlates to Little Miss Sunshine this year. Shrug.

(Thursday, 6:39p – Column Corrections – As sometimes happens, there are some stats that I got wrong this morning… and thanks to some committed, interested readers, here’s a chance to correct them. I thank all of you who sent e-mails.

1. Ordinary People (1981), Annie Hall (1978), and Grand Hotel (1932) won in the past without Best Editing nominations.

2. As I researched it last night, I left Dame duo Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren’s double Supporting Actress noms for Gosford Park off the list of films that had that phenomenon in the last 20 years.

Best Screenplay Chart

Saturday, January 20th, 2007
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Little Miss Sunshine (BFCA) (WGA) These two…
The Queen (GG) (BFCA) (WGA) … are neck and neck
Babel (BFCA) (WGA)
Letters From Iwo Jima
Volver
Half Nelson
Stranger Than Fiction (WGA)
United 93 (WGA)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
The Departed (WGA)
Little Children (WGA)
The Devil Wears Prada (WGA)
Notes On A Scandal
Dreamgirls
Thank You For Smoking (WGA)
Borat (WGA)
The Last King Of Scotland

Best Actress Chart

Saturday, January 20th, 2007
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG)
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (GG/C) (SAG)
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal (SAG)
Kate Winslet – Little Children (SAG)
Penelope Cruz – Volver (SAG)
Outsiders
Beyonce Knowles – Dreamgirls
Annette Bening – Running With Scissors

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG) Looking locked
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (SAG)
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal (SAG)
Adriana Barraza – Babel (SAG)
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel (SAG)
Emily Blunt – The Devil Wears Prada
Phyllis Somerville – Little Children
Shareeka Epps – Half Nelson