Easy Virtue (Three Stars)
U. K.; Stephan Elliott, 2009 (Sony)
Noel Coward’s blithe, spirited, sexy ’20s play, Easy Virtue, is not new to (more…)
Okay… so all the chatter is about the 10 nominees. Emotional responses… been there, done that.
That said… it’s interesting that studios are facing a widening base of pressure to pursue Best Picture nominations at the very same time they are facing very tough economic realities. (Isn’t in funny – not ha ha – that all those people who were screaming about every film being profitable and the studios being indestructible have shut up now that the DVD problem some of us were writing about 3 years ago has become an on-the-record problem? Beware people who don’t want to hear about what’s next, only what bubbles into the mainstream.) Not only that… Oscar dollars are marketing dollars… and marketing is the area that screams for cutbacks more than any other. (Have you driven around L.A. lately… notice the empty buildings that were massive billboards a couple of years ago?)
It also strikes me, when laying out the season to come, is that the expansion that we all knee-jerked into being such a very big deal seems to be falling into some pretty traditional patterns. Paramount and Warner Bros. have the most pictures in play. Sony Classics has a number of titles, all of which have more muscle in categories other than Best Picture. And everyone else tends towards one-offs.
But as you’ll see… even with the contenders being bunched, the resulting nominations could be quite unexpected.
One publicist brought up an angle that I hadn’t yet considered… what about the movies that don’t get in, even with 10 slots open. How much more pressure will that put on the situation?
But most importantly, how will 10 nominees change the dynamic of desperate efforts to spin trend stories? How can it be The Year Of… anything with such inevitable diversity?
It could, I guess, be The Year of Matt Damon, who has Invictus, The Informer!, the animated Miyazaki film, Ponyo, and maybe even Green Zone coming out.
It could be The Year Of Not Bio-Pics, in spite of the Nelson Mandela film from Eastwood, Invictus, and Meryl Streep invoking Julia Child.
Some will try to make it The Year of The Woman, with Nine leading the way for such hopefuls as Julie & Julia, Bright Star, Precious, An Education, Broken Embraces, the 2 SPC Coco Chanel movies, Amelia, Cheri, and even the female director of The Hurt Locker. And maybe they will have a point… there could be 5 nominations in that group.
Or not.
What is truly shocking to me – and readers will have to have faith that it is purely a coincidence – is that as I laid out the chart to go with this column, my current Top 10 contenders… gulp… are from 10 different distributors.
And I don’t even have any tables to sell.
Obviously, a July list is going to change a lot. Universal, for instance, has a Paul Greengrass film that may or may not be ready for release into this season. If it is, then it probably leaps into that Top 10 projection. But today… it’s just a bill. (FYI… see Schoolhouse Rock if you don’t understand).
But for now, in my first 10 are The Weinstein Company, Summit, Lionsgate, and Overture… and though Lionsgate has been there with Crash, still… 4 stand-alone indies. This is a good reason to have the 10 nominations, no? Not to mention that its been a decade since Disney/non-Miramax has had a Best Picture nomination. Plus Sony Classics and Focus.
That’s only 4 slots for major studios after all the talk about The 10 being a boon primarily for big, less effete commercial pictures. (Like Invictus, right?)
Of course, change, as I wrote, is very likely. Paramount isn’t in my Top 10 right now… but has 3 films on the launching pad, any of which or all of which could end up being nominated.
Even more so, there are a bunch of movies that no one has seen that are obvious possibilities. (Watch out for that “Oh, people are seeing that… they aren’t very excited” buzz, which is already ramping up on the dubious highway against The Lovely Bones and Avatar.) Shutter Island, A Christmas Carol, Star Trek, and The Lovely Bones are the top of that list, with three Oscar-winning directors and a surprise smash hit that people really liked.
Precursors be damned. Sundance didn’t help much. Precious and An Education were the two BP potential films emerging, though the first will be driven by a “it’s important for you” campaign and the second is a classic Euro coming of age piece that will race on old school elegance and the emergence (and gentle British charm) of Cary Mulligan. (Also, look for heavy screenplay chatter around Humpday). Cannes was pretty much an Oscar bust, though a few titles will be discussed. And the commercial cinema has been enormously uninteresting this year, though we may have seen a couple of films in The Ten that have already been released… but really, only because it’s ten.
In other words, it’s very, very early in what promises to be a very long Oscar season. Next stop, Toronto.
– David Poland
July 9, 2009
BEST PICTURE
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Picture
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Studio
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Director
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Stars |
Comment
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The Nomination 90% Locks (in alphabetical order) | |||||
Dec 11
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Invictus |
WB
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Eastwood
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Freeman
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When Eastwood Met Apartheid |
Nov 25
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Nine |
TWC
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Marshall
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Day-Lewis
Et al |
Lots of beloved actors dance and sing a forgettable score based on an unforgettable movie |
May
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Up |
Disney
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Docter
Petersen |
–
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A truly great movie that will get enough support to break out of the animated ghetto |
The LeadIng Contenders To Fill The 10 Slots (in alphabetical order) | |||||
Oct 9
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An Education |
SPC
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Scherfig
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Mulligan
Saasgard |
A charmer. |
Dec 18
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Avatar |
Fox
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Cameron
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?
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The big muscle movie that is embraced as The Future? |
Oct 2
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Capitalism: A Love Story |
Over
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Moore
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–
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If it’s up to Moore’s past |
June
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The Hurt Locker |
Sum
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Bigelow
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Renner
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A masterwork of humanity and explosions |
Aug 7
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Julie & Julia |
Sony
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Ephron
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Streep
Adams |
This year’s Prada? |
Nov 6
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Precious |
LG
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Daniels
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Sidibe
‘Nique |
Another test of how much The Academy likes Black people |
Oct 2
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A Serious Man |
Focus
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Coens
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Stuhlbarg
Kind |
The Coens, right? |
The Commercial Chasers (by release date) | |||||
May
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Star Trek |
Par
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Abrams
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Urban
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A surprise box office win now looking like a #4 slot for the summer will likely return it to “it’s tv” notion |
July
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Public Enemies |
U
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Mann
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Depp
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Critics more in love than people |
Oct 2
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Shutter Island |
Par
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Scorsese
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DiCaprio
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A out and out thriller, but so was Cape Fear and with 10, it would have made it |
Feb
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Coraline |
Focus
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Selick
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–
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A glorious film… will the older voters watch it? |
Oct 9
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The Informant! |
WB
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Soderbergh
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Damon
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How broad the comedy? |
Oct 23
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Amelia |
FxSch
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Nair
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Swank
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Looks fogged in |
Nov 6
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A Christmas Carol |
Dis
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Zemeckis
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Carrey
Oldman |
Another visual breakthrough… will the script match? |
Dec 4
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Brothers |
Lions
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Sheridan
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Maguire
Gyllenhaal |
Great actors piece… but can it get real movement? |
Dec 11
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The Lovely Bones |
Par/DW
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Jackson
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Weiss
Ronan Wahlberg Sarandon |
We’ll know when we see it. |
The Arthouse Chasers (by release date) | |||||
June
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Tetro |
AmZ
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Coppola
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Gallo
Ehrenreich |
Masterful, but tiny. |
June
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Cheri |
Mir
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Frears
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Pfeiffer
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Seems more liked than loved |
Sept 25
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Coco Before Chanel |
SPC
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Fontaine
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Tautou
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We’ll see |
Nov 20
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Broken Embraces |
SPC
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Almodovar
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Cruz
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Not as hot as expected out of Cannes |
Dec 25
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The White Ribbon |
SPC
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Hanaeke
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–
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Critics film? |
???
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Bright Star |
BB
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Campion
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Whishaw
Cornish |
Brand new distributor… but Berney has been here before |
Could Join The Racers (by release date) | |||||
Aug 28
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Taking Woodstock |
Focus
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Lee
|
–
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More light than Oscar |
Sept 18 | The Burning Plain |
Mag
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Arriaga
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Theron
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A tough, tough, brilliant little film… if no nod for Theron, cops should be called
|
Sept 25
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Fame |
MGM
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Tancharoen
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–
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The original had that feeling |
Oct 16
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The Road |
TWC
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Hillcoat
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Theron
Mortensen |
Cormac McCarthy again… from the brilliant director of The Proposition |
Nov 13
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The Fantastic Mr Fox |
Fox
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Anderson
|
–
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Fox is serious about this film |
Nov 20
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The Blind Side |
WB
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Hancock
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Bullock
Bates |
Would be a shock, but good material |
Dec 25
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Sherlock Holmes |
WB
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Ritchie
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Downey
|
Not really going to happen… but one must bow to Downey’s popularity |
Dec 25
|
Nancy Meyers Comedy |
FoxS
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Nancy
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Streep
Baldwin Martin |
Could ascend in a hurry when we see it. |
Will They Race This Year? (in alphabetical order) | |||||
???
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Biutiful |
U/Foc
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Gonzalez-
Inarritu |
Bardem
|
|
???
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Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky |
SPC
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Kounen
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Mikkelsen
|
|
Dec?
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Green Zone |
U
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Greengrass
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Damon
|
Most likely to move up fast if the movie is ready for release… much harder for indies |
???
|
Intrigues At Tire-Larigot |
WB
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Jeunet
|
–
|
|
???
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The Last Station |
?
|
Hoffman
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Plummer
Giamatti |
|
???
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Love Ranch |
Think
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Hackford
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Mirren
|
|
Dec?
|
Men Who Stare At Goats |
Over
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Heslov
|
Clooney
Bridges |
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Dec?
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Ondine |
ParV
|
Jordan
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Bachleda-Curus
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|
Dec? | Up In The Air |
Par
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Reitman
|
Clooney
|
|
2010? | Shanghai |
TWC
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Håfström
|
Cusack |
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon