Posts Tagged ‘Flubber’

More Than 39.2 Million Big Ones

Monday, December 15th, 1997

That, my friends, is a lot of scratch. Does it make you want to Scream too? I mean, Scream 2. Thought so. And it’s a record for a December opening to boot. And under all that screaming, no one will hear the muffled cries of those who made For Richer Or Poorer ($6 million for third) and Home Alone 3 ($5.1 million for fourth), both of which marked new lows for Tim Allen and Home Alone opening weekends. Flubber dropped the expected 40 percent to add a second place winning $6.9 million to the coffers as it bounces towards a likely $75 million total.
Amistad, for which I predicted a big opening, was limited by being on only 322 screens. My bad. But in generating $4.6 million for fifth, it averaged $14,596 per screen which is tremendous. Yet, any regular Hot Button reader will immediately notice the phenomenon of Delayed Unveiling Hubris, or DUH for short. Films that are meant to make over $20 million total cannot — with very rare exceptions — do well with a platformed release. (Those opening in just L.A. and NYC for Oscar consideration only are a different story. More on that on Friday.) No one is going to want to see Amistad more in a few weeks than they do now. And the ongoing controversies surrounding the picture won’t help.
The second five was (he said, patting himself on the back) almost exactly as expected. John Grisham‘s The Rainmaker scored another $ 3.4 million for sixth. Alien: Resurrection continues its 50 percent off per week pace, clawing up $3.3 million for seventh. Anastasia continues to be a kind-hearted impostor with a 40 percent drop to $3.1 million for eighth. The Jackal rips off another $ 2.5 million for ninth. And last, but least, Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, itself a victim of DUH, acquires $1.8 million.
Have you noticed any box office patterns like the DUH? Send ’em to me via e-mail.

An Overtly Predictable Weekend

Monday, December 8th, 1997

An overtly predictable weekend at the box office with no new meat available. What surprised me was that meat from a week ago was a bit more stale than expected. Flubber took the top spot, dropping a massive 56 percent from the previous three-day total, adding another $11.8 million to its formula. Alien: Resurrection took the acid bath, dropping 62 percent to $8.2 million. The Rainmaker lost 42 percent, leaving an award of $5.2 million for third. Anastasia continued to fade; this week by 61 percent to take $4.6 million for a total of just over $37 million. And in fifth, it’s The Jackal added $4 million to the Swiss bank account.
The bottom five was also pretty much according to Hoyle. Midnight in the Garden ff Good and Evil lost 44 percent of its party friends, leaving $3 million in favors for sixth. Mortal Kombat was annihilated, dropping to $2.5 million. The only surprise on the list is the ongoing staying power of I Know What You Did Last Summer, which took the softest fall — only 29 percent — to add $1.4 million to its push for the $70 million mark. And Bean tied with Starship Troopers for ninth/tenth with $1.3 million each.
We had strong prediction efforts this week from Rob Strong (no pun intended) and Marc Andreyko, though none of us saw the top of the list being smacked around like a weatherman waiting for El Nino. Try it out. E-mail me your Top Ten this week.

Impressed with the $36 Million Opening of Flubber Last Weekend?

Saturday, December 6th, 1997

Impressed with the $36 million opening of Flubber last weekend? It couldn’t begin to compare to the continued summertime heat of Men In Black. Not only is M.I.B. still drawing almost half a million a week at the box office (more than the third week of Mad City), but its video release grossed over $100 million in its first week. This figure included the biggest rental numbers ever, pulling in $13.5 million, which alone would place it fifth in last week’s box office race. Add in sales of five to six million copies of the video, averaging $17, and voila: $102 million. And it occurs to me that M.I.B. is one of those rare smash hits that offers the very real possibility that the sequel will improve on the original. With the origin “problem” out of the way, producers can probably concoct a story much more interesting than Chasing Mikey.
Kirstie Alley is pissed off again and it’s not just because she isn’t getting “The Big One” from Parker Stevenson any more. Kirstie was forced to audition for her role in For Richer or For Poorer, opposite fellow TV star Tim Allen. Why? “There was a certain person at Universal, who shall remain nameless, who told me that I wasn’t box office,” Ms. Alley admits. Well, Kirstie, you aren’t box office. But I don’t understand what doing a screen test could ever do to make you box office. B.O. pull has a negligible connection to talent. Either you is or you ain’t.
Alley also appears in Woody Allen‘s upcoming starfest, Deconstructing Harry, which is being described as everything from an Oscar-worthy film to a piece of crap. We’ll soon find out for ourselves. But another piece of Woody history was recently pulled out of the wastebasket at New York’s public TV station, WNET. The film, a 25 minute mockumentary spoof of the Nixon Administration entitled Men of Crisis: The Harvey Wallinger Story, was made on the fly by Allen in 1971 and was summarily round-filed by the WNET brass for being too politically dangerous. In the film, Allen plays Wallinger, a top Nixon aide with a Harvard Ph.D. in needlepoint, graduating 96th in a class of 95. The film can’t be shown unless Allen agrees, but his management says that it’s unlikely. The film is 26 years old. Way too old for Woody to enjoy.
Will Alien: Resurrection rise from the dead box office week to take top spot? Will Flubber flub its box office break and drown under The Rainmaker? E-mail me what you think.

Thanksgiving Weekend Results

Monday, December 1st, 1997

Interesting, somewhat disappointing results at the box office this Thanksgiving weekend. Flubber did pretty much what I expected, though it took first place, not second. An impressive $36.4 million five-day weekend is well short of 101 Dalmatians‘ $45 million take last Thanksgiving ($137 million total). Flubber, with $27 million over the Friday-Sunday period, looks to be more in the range of My Best Friend’s Wedding or Face/Off, hitting the $100 million mark domestically, but not passing $120 million. Alien: Resurrection snagged $27.2 million for second place, actually winning the Wednesday-Thursday battle with $10.1 million over Flubber’s $8.7 million, but losing the war as the weekend wore on. Look for a final tally in the high 60s (comparable to Dante’s Peak or Anaconda), placing it third in the quad-ology’s box office hierarchy.
Anastasia took third place with $16.7 million, but the breakdown shows that even though the film dropped minimally over the three-day weekend ($14.1 million last weekend versus $13.9 this one), its Wed-Thurs performance stunk the place up, averaging only $1.4 million each of those days, the weakest of the Top Five. To me, that says younger kids are going (with mom and dad) and those of Flubber age are passing. Pretty fine line, huh? If Anastasia hits $60-70 million, did they win the war against Disney? I say “yup.” The surprise of the weekend was The Rainmaker’s strong performance in fourth, performing well all week and adding another $14.5 million to Francis’ judgment. And The Jackal held on for fifth, shooting $10.3 million into its Swiss bank account.
Mortal Kombat: Annihilation fell like a stone, about 60 percent in a three-day weekend comparison, kicking up $9.5 million with a truly awful movie. Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil is more the latter than the former, on-screen and at the box office, taking seventh with $7.3 million. Now, y’all say bye-bye to them Oscahs. The Little Mermaid got her fin kicked, adding just $2.7 million to her $25 million three-week total, a little more than her P & A costs. Bean slinks towards the $50 million domestic finish line, adding $4.2 million to its total for ninth. And, “The Troopers Are Going! The Troopers Are Going!” passing $50 million with $4 million for 10th.
Thanks for all of your weekend predictions. You’re all getting better every week. Way to use that e-mail.

Thanksgiving Weekend

Wednesday, November 26th, 1997

Last Thanksgiving, 101 Dalmations won the five-day weekend with $33.5 million. I expect Alien: Resurrection to blow that number out of the water with over $45 million to win the Turkey Day Parade. Combine that with my predicted $20 million take for Anastasia‘s second weekend (for third place) and you’ll find Fox dancing in a pool of acid saliva. Of course, their steaming cheer won’t worry Disney, who are looking at a $35 million long weekend for Flubber, with Robin Williams bouncing into second place.
The rest of the Top Ten is all repeat business. Remember that these are five-day estimates. Look for Mortal Kombat: Annihilation to be one of the few films to drop in overall gross despite the additional two days ($16 million for fourth). The Rainmaker should do well, with positive, though not overwhelming buzz, acquiting itself to the tune of $13 million and fifth place. The Jackal looks to be another flick eaten by an Alien, losing a million to shoot at a $8 million weekend for sixth. The Little Mermaid should swim to another $7 million in its final weekend of competition, dropping to seventh. Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil may be doing great per-screen, but it won’t be adding screens, so $7 million for eighth is about a much as Clint can make. And look for Bean to take ninth with about $5 million.
And now for those of you who are taking the weekend off from school, a math problem. If Starship Trooper has dropped 50 percent every week since its release, but the five-day weekend should increase box office by about 60 percent, then how much will Starship Troopers gross? Tah dah! Four million dollars for tenth place, rounding out the Top Ten in its final appearance. Enjoy the movies, everyone!
E-mail your predictions to me early so I can have some crow to go with my turkey on Thanksgiving night.

It's Time for Anastasia to Put Up or Shut Up

Friday, November 21st, 1997

All the whining about Disney means nothing. This weekend is wide open without another truly major release in it’s way. Next week, Alien Ressurection and Flubber blow, bite and bounce into theaters. So, this is it! That said, I think that Fox’s animated Meg Ryan will do about what last year’s real Meg release, Courage Under Fire did: $14 million for first place. Last week, the big dropper was Starship Troopers with a 55 percent plunge. This week, The Jackal should combine bad word-of-mouth with an R-rating to lose 40 percent and fall to a $9.1 million second place finish. And despite all better judgment, Mortal Kombat: Annihilation should open in third with about $9 million.
My Butt-Biter-Of-The-Week could be The Rainmaker, which I’m projecting at $7 million in fourth, even though it could do much worse. I love Coppola and even I’m not that anxious to see it. The second and last week of The Little Mermaid should survive Anastasia to the tune of a 30 percent drop into fifth with $6.9 million. The fall of Starship Troopers should slow to about 35 percent with $6.5 million for sixth.
The last of our newbies is Clint Eastwood‘s Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, which may suffer the same box office fate as L.A. Confidential, though the buzz isn’t as good. Warner Bros. choice to start with 800 screens should limit the box office to a seventh place finish with about $5.6 million or worse. Bean isn’t exactly the cultural phenomena here that it’s been overseas, but it should pass the $40 million mark with another $5.3 million for eighth. And in ninth and tenth, the evil twins of fall, The Devil’s Advocate and I Know What You Did Last Summer, should both hover around the $2.5 million mark.
Master Wok has already sent in his box office take. He likes Anastasia, Mortal Kombat and The Jackal to lead things. E-mail me your predictions now!