Posts Tagged ‘I Am Legend’

20 Weeks To Go, The Rules Of Ten

Friday, October 30th, 2009

The most often considered issue of this year’s Oscar race is, “How will having ten nominees change the game?”

And the definitive answer is, “Ask me next April.”

Well, even that may be a little blurry.

What I can tell you is what has happened so far, which is still very much at the beginning of the journey as far as actual awards voters are concerned.

What we don’t see so far is an earnest effort by the “big movies” to get slots in the BP10… except for Up, which Disney has out there on parade early and often. All the sky-is-falling whining about Star Trek and The Hangover and Harry Potter as Best Picture contenders has been followed by Paramount and Warner Bros shrugging their campaigning shoulders and not spending a dime or more than a minute of effort moving the bar in that direction. Wisely.

Besides Up, on the commercial side, there is a Supporting Actress push going on for The Proposal, some hints that Sony is going to push District 9 out there, and The Weinsteins may find some real BPO traction for Inglourious Basterds. That means that there are two possible movies in the BP race from the Top 20 domestic grossers to date.

But quietly – amazingly quietly – Avatar is becoming a serious Best Picture player. Fox isn’t pushing it. They aren’t advertising it. They are doing what they have done for years… sell the movie and if awards come, so be it. And no matter the media response to the teaser trailer, you can feel the ground rumbling under the earth’s crust for this one now. The movie is going to be very, very big.

Even if it fails by some standards, it is almost impossible to imagine the film grossing less than $500 million worldwide. That would put it with Potter 6, Ice Age 3, and Trannies 2 (in that order… do people realize that IA3 has outgrossed Tr2 worldwide?) in that financial category. This is very rarified air for a title that is neither a sequel, animated or based on a literary work that defined the box office future of the title… you know, what grandpa used to call “an original.”

There are sixty-seven $500m worldwide grossers in history and only Ghost, The Day After Tomorrow, Forrest Gump, Armageddon, Night At The Museum, I Am Legend, Hancock, The Sixth Sense, Star Wars, ET, and Jurassic Park qualify in that rarified grouping. Five of the eleven were Best Picture nominated. Only one won. But still…

The two tip-top contenders that have not been seen – Nine and Invictus – remain on the top of many lists, though we are still weeks away from seeing the goods (or the bads).

But the lists have filled up with some titles that wouldn’t quite be borderline in years past, whether Precious or A Single Man or A Serious Man. A movie like The Hurt Locker would have a very hard road, no matter how good it is, because of its lackluster box office run. Inglourious Basterds would have been dismissed by now as too commercial and fun.

Still, all five films, seen as favorites by most to secure BP slots, are not advertising yet… not fighting to get out ahead of the late-coming big dogs… biding their time, perhaps waiting for critics to give them a lift.

The most heavily pushed “small” film so far, amongst actual voters and not just the press, is An Education… which is now benefiting from an air of inevitability. The film isn’t world beating. But the movie is loveable, the performances are loveable, and all of a sudden, borderline contenders like Alfred Molina are real contenders for nomination because Academy members are being asked early and often for their consideration.

The question at the end of the day will be, “What was the great idea that got these movies nominated?” And every year, we are reminded that there is no hard and fast rule. And this year, even more so.

I predict that as obvious as the floorplan seems to be this season, there will be a major surprise or two in which films didn’t get nominated… because so many are laying back, thinking they can foist themselves on the voters late in the game. There are too many studios trying to play this game and someone’s going to go home with their balloon crushed (and it isn’t like to be Disney).

On the other hand, it seems to me that we are already down to fifteen or fewer serious contenders for nomination, even without having seen five of them. So that is the shading in which the contending marketers are operating. There will be some happy surprises as well.

As risky as I see a strategy like The Hurt Locker’s as being, I am also quite conscious that the film will certainly be amongst the best five, by most standards of quality, in that group of fifteen. So no matter how little is spent or how late it is spent, aren’t they likely to be in the group of nominees? Isn’t there a constituency that will just joke on quality and feel that a nomination vote spent there is not a wasted vote?

The most interesting thing so far is that it is already November and so little has really happened. Toronto came and went… NYFF after that… and very little has changed. Most of the horses are in the gate, kicking and squealing, but not allowed to really race. They are just biding their time, waiting for the industry to put together enough money to pay for the dirt to be laid out on the track, lest the horses run on concrete and break their dainty legs.

And when they are let loose, it will surely seem more intense than ever. But it may actually be just the opposite… no time for much to happen but for people to see the movies and to vote their hearts and not their heads.

Come February, there is no way of knowing how distributors will behave either. Will, like last year, one or two films become the obvious frontrunners and send everyone else into “it’s lovely to be nominated” mode or will there be a battle royale amongst ten contenders who all feel viable as every one of them has fatal flaws and winning strengths?

Ask me in April.

– David Poland
October 30, 2009

Best Picture Chart

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009
BEST PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Nomination 90% Locks (in alphabetical order)
Dec 25
Nine
TWC
Marshall
Day-Lewis
Et al
In a thin year, getting over the post-production fights, looking like the front-runner
May
Up
Disney
Docter
Petersen
Could the first animated film to get a BP nod in a year with an animated category get the win?
The Nomination 80% Locks (in alphabetical order)
Dec 11
Invictus
WB
Eastwood
Freeman
The Waiting Game…
Nov 13 Up In The Air
Par
Reitman
Clooney
Very well liked already… a reflective comedy
Nov 6
Precious
LG
Daniels
Sidibe
‘Nique
The race race
Toronto Contenders Looking Likely
Oct 9
An Education
SPC
Scherfig
Mulligan
Sarsgaard
Belle Of The Ball
Oct 2
A Serious Man
Focus
Coens
Stuhlbarg
Kind
It’s the Jewish Precious… but funny!
Nov
A Single Man
TWC
Ford
Firth
It’s the Gay Precious… but pretty!
Serious Contenders To Fill The Last 3 Slots(in alphabetical order)
June
The Hurt Locker
Sum
Bigelow
Renner
A great movie… will Summit spend to play?
August
Inglourious Basterds
TWC
Tarantino
Waltz
A more commercial film… but looking better and better as the “contenders” slide
Sept 25
Coco Before Chanel
SPC
Fontaine
Tautou
The strong small film for women…. could push out Streep’s Julia Child… or not
Nov 13
The Fantastic Mr Fox
Fox
Anderson
Fox Searchlight on it now!
Dec 18 Avatar
Fox
Cameron
?
Is it a gamebreaker?
The Still Blurry, Waiting For Focus
Dec 25?
The Lovely Bones
Par/DW
Jackson
Weiss
Ronan
Wahlberg
Tucci

Will get a late, limited release
Nov 6
A Christmas Carol
Dis
Zemeckis
Carrey
Oldman
A breakthrough?
Damaged Goods
Oct 2
Capitalism: A Love Story
Over
Moore
Folks are trying to get excited, but privately are dissapointed
Aug 7 Julie & Julia
Sony
Ephron
Streep
Adams
A modest hit… seen as all about Streep… could rise if others fall
Nov 25
The Road
TWC
Hillcoat
Theron
Mortensen
Not as problematic as righties claimed, but hard road for Oscar
The Walking Dead Since July’s Chart
June
Tetro
AmZ
Coppola
Gallo
Ehrenreich
People heard something was coming… didn’t know it landed
June
Cheri
Mir
Frears
Pfeiffer
Commerical miss
Aug 28
Taking Woodstock
Focus
Lee
Commerical miss
Sept 18 The Burning Plain
Mag
Arriaga
Theron
Too heavy for a theatrical…
Sept
Bright Star
BB
Campion
Whishaw
Cornish
DOR – Dead On Release
2010
Shutter Island
Par
Scorsese
DiCaprio
Moved to 2010
2010
Green Zone
U
Greengrass
Damon
2010
The Commercial Chasers (by release date)
May
Star Trek
Par
Abrams
Urban
Bloom off the rose with #4 summer finish
July
Public Enemies
U
Mann
Depp
Mann’s #2 high grosser ever has been tagged “a flop”
Feb
Coraline
Focus
Selick
Fighting the notion of 2 animated nominees
Sept
The Informant!
WB
Soderbergh
Damon
Tone is throwing some off
Nov 20 The Blind Side
WB
Hancock
Bullock
Bates
Could be a surprise
Dec 25
Sherlock Holmes
WB
Ritchie
Downey
Not likely… Guy Ritchie
Dec 25
It’s Complicated
U
Meyers
Streep
Baldwin
Martin
Could well be the surprise
The Arthouse Chasers (by release date)
Oct 23
Amelia
FxSch
Nair
Swank
No one is excited
Nov 20 Broken Embraces
SPC
Almodovar
Cruz
Excellent… but not a ground breaker
Dec 4
Brothers
Lions
Sheridan
Maguire
Gyllenhaal
It wasn’t at TIFF… how will it find wings with Precious as LGF’s true love?
Dec 4
Everybody’s Fine
Mir
Jones
DeNiro
Remake of a Tornatore classic
Dec?
Men Who Stare At Goats
Over
Heslov
Clooney
Bridges
Liked, not loved.
Dec 25 The White Ribbon
SPC
Hanaeke
Fine art
Unlikely To Race This Year (in alphabetical order)
Biutiful
U/Foc
Gonzalez-
Inarritu
Bardem
Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky
SPC
Kounen
Mikkelsen
Intrigues At Tire-Larigot (Micmacs)
WB
Jeunet
The Last Station
Hoffman
Plummer
Giamatti
Love Ranch
Think
Hackford
Mirren
Ondine
Jordan
Bachleda-Curus
Shanghai
TWC
Håfström

Cusack
Yun-Fat
Li

The Dark Knight: The Musical

Wednesday, December 17th, 1997

Variety reports that Warner Bros. is making plans to follow in Disney’s footsteps by bringing the Batman franchise to Broadway. That’s right, “The Dark Knight: The Musical” (It could be less painful than another Schumacher Batman sequel). I bet you want to sing already, huh? Songs include “My Dead Parents,” “Sorry ’bout the Acid, Joker,” the comedy number, “My Tights Are Too Darned Tight,” and the grand romantic ballad, “My Suit Is Happy To See You.”
The Arizona Republic talked to Tom Arnold, who spilled the beans about what’s next for James Cameron. According to Tom, it’s True Lies 2. Cameron is apparently ready to pay Fox back for their $200 million worth of faith in him and his vision for Titanic. Arnold starts his WB hiatus in February and he was just put on indefinite hold on Ridley Scott’s over-budget-before-pre-production, I Am Legend. And Cameron? He’d only have to take a break from the awards banquets at which he’ll soon be a regular. Look for the film in Christmas, 1998, assuming Tom is on target.
Whining was the art form of choice over the weekend. Kevin Costner was unhappy with press junket critics’ reaction to The Postman, his new writer/director/star turn. The reaction? Laughter. “That’s horrible!” squealed Kevin, “You guys (the media) keep spinning that way, and it’s wrong. You were wrong about Dances (With Wolves), you were wrong about Waterworld, and you’re wrong about this movie! It’s too bad that’s how it keeps going; that really pisses me off.” On the other hand, Christian Slater knows that he was wrong and that he needs help. He told reporters, “It doesn’t matter how famous you are … If your head is telling you you suck, all you ever want to do is try to escape from that. I’m just dealing with that now, and it’s tough.” Good luck, gentlemen. I’ll put a dime in your tin cups when I see you.
Any money for me? Throw something in my tin cup. Or just drop me a line to say hi.