And so… we near the end.

Looking back at my first column, 19 weeks ago, there is not a single thing in it that remotely embarrasses me.  3 of the 5 nominees were in my Top 4.  The other 2 were near the bottom of the first Top 15, but appropriately so at the time.

We were discussing the dark movies, the two comedies, the contenders that didn’t have the marketing muscle to make it, the three titles from first-time directors that ended up being BP nominated, the half-dozen well-liked pictures that had already seen their fates sealed by poor box office reception, and Clayton being the only early October survivor (No Country held off expansion until November)… still themes of discussion.

My point is not to smell my own farts here.  The point is, it’s been that kind of season.

Julie Christie, Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney, Javier Bardem, the Coens, Diablo vs Gilroy, Ellen Page emerging, love lettering Holbrook and Dee, Cotillard trying to find her balance in English, Haggis’ film getting mishandled with a terrible date, two Paramount films launching their Oscar campaigns in Harry Knowles’ lap to little effect (though one did get nominated, thanks to the real critics), and Searchlight, Miramax, Vantage, Focus, and WB continuing to be the dominant players in the last five years with 17 of the last 25 Best Picture nominations between them.

Déjà vu all over the place.  All you have to do is to listen to the ground.

This is not to say that new companies can’t break into the game.  Universal has managed 3 nominations in that period, though there is a sense that two have been for well-liked films flogged for with an unusual amount of awards marketing dollars and the third was Spielberg on Jewish pain.  New Line had their 2 Rings nods.  And aside from that, it’s only 1 each for Lionsgate, Sony Classics, and Fox.  Lionsgate is the only true indie that has managed a nod in the last 5 years.

And if No Country wins on Sunday night, it will mean that in five of the last six years, the winning movie has had either Cynthia Swartz or Michelle Robertson on the film as a leading consultant, dominating as Universal & Tony Angellotti and Terry Press’ DreamWorks team had in the years before that.

This doesn’t mean that someone else can’t be on the winning team… but the question of who will be the next great consulting voice is not answered.  This is not meant to discount the value of all the terrific consultants out there, some of whom have also been working on movies that won and some of whom have gotten nominations against all odds.  And even the best can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear… at least not in the winner’s circle.  Really, can anyone really doubt the strength of the Searchlight and Fox Vantage teams in the last couple of years?  There is no better mechanic in the game than Lisa Taback. But until they break the tape at the finish… well, in the Oscar game, winning isn’t everything, but it is 80% of everything.

Anyway…

People want to talk about box office not mattering… yet once again, there was no Best Picture nominee release before December 26 (There Will Be Blood) with less than $32 million in the domestic box office.  And it wasn’t just obviously financially troubled movies that didn’t make the cut.  Films that did okay, but seemed like disappointments died as well, whether Sweeney Todd ($52m dom/$122m ww, #7 musical of all time), Charlie Wilson’s War ($66m dom/$98m ww) or The Great Debaters ($30m, $26m when noms closed).

Journalists have been left spinning their wheels like gerbils in a show biz cage for weeks.  This week’s laugher is Juno as the threat to No Country.  No way.  God bless the film.  God bless Peter Rice & Co, who delivered a mainstream comedy right out of ApatowVille that is not only the highest grossing film in Searchlight’s remarkable history, but which will come close to doubling the domestic gross of the #2 film, Sideways. But Oscar doesn’t give the award to non-showbiz comedies (Shakespeare in Love being the one arguable comedy in recent history), the last exception being Annie Hall, 30 years ago.  (And you could make the argument that it was a show biz comedy, following Woody from coast to coast.)

Moreover, it is the classic example of a “little movie” that got too big to win.  Shakespeare in Love didn’t crack $100 million until weeks after it won.  Nor did Driving Miss Daisy. There just is no history for a film becoming a surprise box office monster and winning.  And there will be none this year.

You want to make a case for There Will Be Blood?  Good luck.  What is the precedent?  Eastwood?  Letters From Iwo Jima didn’t win.  Million Dollar Baby was over $60 million when the final vote closed and was the #3 film when it was nominated.  TWBB is at $32 million, #5 in the group of nominees.

No one is even considering Atonement as an option… though you couldn’t easily make any argument against it beyond, “It ain’t that good… it’s not that well liked.”

The argument against Michael Clayton could be that it is still in the #4 box office slot and is likely to be stuck there unless it wins the Oscar, since Atonement, only $123,000 ahead at the box office, is still winning head-to-head, day-by-day.  But aside from that, it makes perfect sense as the alternative to No Country For Old Men. It’s New Old Hollywood with Clooney, Wilkinson, Gilroy, and even Swinton to some degree.  It’s serious, but it doesn’t choke you with its weight.  And no one in the Academy will be embarrassed to say that it was this year’s Best Picture.

Still, the movie that has made the long haul and is still most likely to follow in its own precursor footsteps is No Country For Old Men. It’s the third Coen Bros film to score nods for the brothers, inarguably amongst the five most important American filmmakers to emerge in the last two decades.  It’s their second Best Picture nominee.  It seems like the time is now.

Six of the last ten and thirteen of the last twenty Best Picture winners have been directed by well-set, mostly previously-nominated veterans.  What film this year makes sense following the legacy of Haggis, Marshall, Mendes, Madden, Minghella, Gibson, and Costner?  (Interesting that the only one who was born in America was Costner, eh?)

So… Money says No Country.  Veteran status says No Country.  The Editing Stat says No Country.  DGA’s 70% picking BP winners, not Directing winners says No Country.  The Golden Globes 90% Wrong in Best Picture (and how could they miss Return of the King?) with 10 shots in the last five years says No Country.  NY Film Critics (3 matching in the last 10 years), BFCA (6 of 10), and SAG (5 in 10) all say No Country.  And more than double the critics awards of any other film and five times the number of Best Picture wins of the next closest titles…

It ALL seems to say No Country.

And there is no reason to really think it won’t win.  The people around the film have not strutted around like they already won it.  There is no “must love” film sauntering around in the background… just four films with strong constituencies for adult conscience drama, directing, comedy, and period romance.  Even its male lead, Tommy Lee Jones, got an Oscar nod… for another picture… but contributing to the ‘feel right” of it all.

It is likely to be as boring and pleasant an Oscar night as any in memory.

And then, on Monday, the discussion between Swartz and Rudin about the positioning of Revolutionary Road will continue.  Is it Mendes time for a second Oscar?  Will The Great Kate with a K finally win her first Oscar?  Will Leo get his?  Will Deakins be a negative if he wins this year… or great bait of he loses this year?  Can Scott Rudin be the Bride twice in two years after being left out of even bridesmaid status all but once in over a decade of being in the chase?

Or will the film end up being just another quality Oscar miss with pedigree to spare?

I don’t know.

And I don’t really care.

We are exactly 3 months away from Indiana Jones IV (Harrison Ford needs an IV around now) and a whip arrived by courier on Wednesday to prove it.  It’s the off-season.  We have a SAG strike to avoid and a President to elect.  Monday morning I get on a cruise ship with 200 of my favorite Canadians, heading for Mexico, for the Floating Festival, which will honor the recently passed great man, Dusty Cohl and a great living actress, Gena Rowlands.

We look to the future by appreciating our past. And loving movies.

For me, the joy of this season has come half an hour at a time, talking to the likes of Bardem and Cotillard and Polley and Mortensen and Page and Swinton and Wilkinson and Gilroy and Brolin and Gosling and Gillespie and Oliver and Schnabel and Kaminski and Harwood and Ryan and Holbrook and Ronan and Gibney and Amalric and Croze and so many others who I never got to spend time with on camera but hung out with like Linney and Jenkins and Clooney and Ferguson and Haggis and Knightley and Rudin and even the unnominated like Burton and Taymor and Adams and Blonsky and Kelley and Hirsch and Clarkson and Mortimer and McAvoy and Langella and Riley and Turturro and Cronenberg and Bosco and Lee and Jordan and Nair…

The joy of getting to know just a little bit more about these people is such a pleasure and such and privilege (and for those who I didn’t name but gave me time as well). These are the memories that will stick with me forever… not the dance of the pundits.

The closer you get to the work, the more that the work is all that really matters.

Viva la cinema!

More rules… [The first five are here.]

Timing Is As Important As The Film

It’s one of the lessons that we learn again every season.  Timing matters as much as any other element of the process.

Can a summer release be nominated in January?  Of course.  Or March?  Sure.  The biggest problem with spring releases has become the short DVD window.  With tens of millions now going into DVD campaigns, the DVD launch is an excellent opportunity for an awards campaign to piggyback on costs and to aggressively remind voters about a movie they loved early in the year.  But not if you are releasing your DVD in August…

Even a July movie now gets an October DVD release, which means that a studio will have to keep selling the movie with a separate and expensive Oscar campaign in  November and December if the film is going to have a shot.

Conversely, December has become a treacherous time to release an Oscar hopeful.  Unless you start showing your movie by early November, you are fighting an uphill battle, as all the pre-Oscar awarding groups are gearing up to make choices in the first two weeks of December.  Some movies still get away with it, There Will Be Blood being this year’s example (though it still showed in the first half of November).  But while a brilliant campaign was run and earlier exposure may well have killed the film in the season, there was still a degree of good fortune in the timing.  As much as the film earned its position, it also benefited from a dearth of serious contenders… a parade of wannabes falling short when push came to shove.

American Gangster set itself up just right… but the movie wasn’t strong enough.  TWBB, conversely, was by far the lowest grossing film of the nominated group when it was nominated… but drew the kind of unrestrained passion that got it a nomination.

Juno’s timing was perfection, as it danced away from the “too successful” problem that comedies and many bigger studio films have, staying “this year’s Little Miss Sunshine” for its supporters.  Besides comedies having a hard time getting in, that perception of it being “the little movie that could” is key… and the key to that is timing.  Searchlight pushed it further by being a little disingenuous.  When the film opened at Telluride, it was a “TBA,” with the claim that the studio wasn’t sure whether it would be ready.  By the time it hit Toronto, four days later, there was plenty of advertising in Toronto’s streets… consumer ads, wild postings, etc… that had not been conceived overnight (no pun intended) and which represented what turned out to be the campaign for the film from that day until now.  At the same time, Juno was on screens long enough and on enough screens to qualify before nomination voting as a clear hit, which was also key timing in making voters feel that a vote for the film would not be wasted.

As I have written before, Atonement used the Brokeback Mountain strategy, showing at the September fests, where it got its sails full of wind.  Then it was held back from much screening until mid-November.  Then it was re-unleashed.  The difference was that the public embrace of the film was far more muted than that of Brokeback.  Still, the Women’s Vote was enough to get the only major costume drama of the season into the nominee’s luncheon.

And both Michael Clayton and No Country For Old Men – the two films that have a shot to win, with Old Men well in the lead and Clayton mostly a possible spoiler if TWBB eats enough of No country’s votes – opened in October… and lingered.  They lingered the way that only well-liked, intelligent, challenging films do.  The two stylists of the “let them stew” campaigns, Cynthia Swartz and Michelle Robertson, have very different styles of pushing these October releases along.

The Robertson-consulted The Departed won last year, as Swartz’s No Country is likely to win this year.  Swartz used a similar strategy on The Queen last year even with a May release, again with Crash a few years back… which upset Robertson’s Brokeback Mountain. Robertson almost upset a more aggressive Swartz and Lundberg and the Weinstein Machine on Chicago with a low-key run of The Pianist a few years back.  Of course, both of these talented women work for marketing departments and studios that are very involved in the work and also have other consultants and allies of many stripes in the process.  Neither would suggest otherwise.  But it is not a coincidence that these two masters of timing and patience are in the race every year.

Nancy Utley’s team at Fox Searchlight – which, not coincidentally, had Paramount Vantage’s Oscar leader, Megan Collagen, on board as they figured out the territory – has figured out their methodology as well, getting more skilled every year since they flopped with Antoine Fisher and refused to push In America, which was finished and more of the moment the year before it was released, into the Oscar race.  These days, they would throw both out into the pond and see which floated.  Searchlight has clearly taken a page from the old Weinstein book, going five deep with “Oscar movies” and then weeding them out as they go along.  Of course, some movies, like Margot At The Wedding, were never going to race.  Others, like The Savages, get caught in a ringer when a movie like Juno emerges and becomes the home team favorite.  In an odd way, The Savages timing was bad internally, as the film was “that good,” but while it sat for a year before its release, Juno was not the only golden child that got more notice.  Even Waitress and Once, picked up at the same Sundance where The Savages got a stronger reception that either, was given the red carpet, while The Savages was all but bum rushed.

That brings us to…

Get Lucky

It’s no joke.  Not everything can be planned.  Luck has a lot to do with it.

You can never just lay back and wait for luck.  But with few exceptions, you need to get some breaks.  Chicago was the Hillary Clinton of its Oscar year… and The Obama-nist almost caught up.  Would the wave for The Pianist have started a few weeks early and overcome Chicago if the premiere in L.A. hadn’t left 1000 people not seeing the film that night?

How much of The Departed winning last year was a failure of the other movies to catch or maintain their fire?

Was part of Crash’s win people who didn’t like or want to see a win for Brokeback Mountain too uncomfortable to talk about it publicly, therefore never exposing their interest in Crash to the brickbats thrown at the film after it won?

Speaking of Crash…

Phase II Matters

This is becoming one of my pet peeves in experiencing each Oscar season.  People go nuts trying to get a nomination and then relax once they get it.  Ad budgets – for most – get reduced, publicity efforts are less intense, and there is a vague sense that once the nominations are set, the campaign is over and it’s about the movies.

But it’s not true.

I can understand if this makes some people want to kill me about now.  But as we see in the political primaries, resting on your laurels is dangerous stuff… if you care about winning.

In an odd way, I think that pushing for a nomination feels safer for most studios and filmmakers than pushing for the win does.  To repeat last week’s analogy, it’s like pushing for the Pro Bowl if you are a football player.  Or closer to home, in the years of being a columnist and site editor, I have decided that I really am not interested in chasing any awards for which I have to submit the work (and usually pay) to be in the running.  It’s just not very dignified.  If the work is good enough, it should find its place.  And if I have to tell you that I am worthy of an award, I’m not all that worthy.

In any case… it’s not that all efforts stop for all movies the day after nominations are had… but the is an increased restraint and a greater emphasis on things that can done without exposing the talent.  The most famous decision (and most debated in regards to whose idea it really was) was the DVD dump by Crash. I would argue, as I did then, that the dump itself was a show of desire and that was enough to win the day when there was a quiet Brokeback backlash and no other film showing its ass in an effort to win.

There are, actually, more efforts made on behalf of the creative guilds for their nominees… lots and lots of events.

Maybe asking for it and losing anyway is just too painful to consider.  But asking is a powerful force in the Oscar season.  And if you don’t ask, you better have some mighty wave of energy working for you without you asking.

One of those energy sources…

Make Money

No one likes to believe that money matters to Oscar.

But money matters to Oscar.

Too much can knock you out as “too commercial.”  Too little and you’re “too obscure.”

The last time the Best Picture winner had less than $50 million in the domestic bank when it was voted in for the win was 1987…  20 years ago.

In the last decade, the #1 or #2 grosser at the time final voting closed won 8 of 10… and the other 2 wins went to #3.   If you are #4 or #5, you are out of luck.  (This year, that means No Country or the unlikely Juno – too successful and a comedy – with Michael Clayton as the outside shot.)

People love a winner… so you have to win enough to get that love.

And finally…

Don’t Give Up

It’s that simple.

Studios give up in all kinds of ways.  And we, in the media and in the caring world, can smell it like a drug dog can smell Woody Harrelson… miles and miles away.

You can flail and you can fail and you can not have the tools… but giving up is the one sure way of killing off your movie.

I don’t want to call out the films and studios that gave up this year.  (You know who you are.)  Too mean for no reason.  And there are plenty of players who failed for other reasons.

But the long run is rough and tumble and not for the faint of heart.  Surprising success comes to those with patience and foresight… and an ad budget.

Maybe giving up is the right thing, sometimes.  But as the old ad said, you gotta be in it to win it.

And this year, the winning is just around the corner.

Perspective is hard to come by this time of year. Here are 10 general rules you might want to consider when you consider this wacky game of movie chess.

Don’t Be The Frontrunner … Unless You Can’t Lose

Being the frontrunner from the start to the finish line is not the norm in modern Oscar history.  People love to knock the battery off that shoulder … especially the media.

Of course, the entire notion of The Frontrunner is an illusion (delusion?) of the media.  We need a story, so building a movie up to knock it down means more fun copy for us … yay!

Lord of the Rings: Return of The King, Titanic, American Beauty, Schindler’s List, and Forrest Gump are the only start-to-finish frontrunners to survive in the last 20 years.

By the time the season is rolling along with enough steam for the media to start obsessing, at least half the movies that are going to be in play are already in play, launching at Cannes, Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.  In many cases, the films are already in theaters by mid-October.

Atonement was this year’s early anointed with Charlie Wilson’s War and Sweeney Todd in the back pocket of expectation.   But the smarty-pants comedy, Juno, and the pitch black show pony, There Will Be Blood, pushed ahead of all three.  No Country For Old Men was the Cynthia Swartz Lovechild of the season.  Michael Clayton was the studio little engine that could … and has.  And Atonement made it through … but just by the hair of its chinny-chin-chin, without nods in more of the expected other major categories.

Meanwhile, Sweeney Todd did all it could to stay away from frontrunnerisms … yet still fell to overeager expectations and a tough set of parameters to overcome in a season with two other films that had lots o’ blood.

Charlie Wilson’s War got slaughtered as soon as it peeked out of the foxhole with critics’ screenings … too much so.  The film has quietly done more than $60 million, outgrossing all but Juno amongst the BP nominees.   The film is no masterpiece, but it also had no chance to settle in and to be seriously considered past the hysteria of the moment.

This brings us to …

Don’t Start Late … Unless You Have The Nuts

The Nuts.  A poker term meaning “the unbeatable hand.”  In the Oscar universe, this speaks not only to the movie itself, but the talent connected to that movie.

It’s real simple.  You can get into the game late if you have Steven Spielberg or current Clint Eastwood at the helm or if you have a highly anticipated commercial film that is also expected to be awards bait.

There are two major issues at play here.  First, people have to see your film.  And while critics awards and nominations (including the Golden Globes) are mostly irrelevant on their face (see Critics rule below), they do narrow the field of movies for Academy voters who will nominated a couple of weeks after everyone else has had their say.  Even if “they” want to watch your film, if you aren’t in play with the critics, there is a good chance that “they” will prioritize movies that are … maybe not seeing your film until after its too late.

The second issue is Perceived Value vs Real Value.  The Real Value is how people will feel about a movie next year and onward.  The Perceived Value is how people think of the film as they mark their ballots in the month of December or the first week of January.

Some films really, really need to settle into people’s psyches.  Some films are really, really going to fall out of favor if anyone thinks about them too much.

A big part of being an Oscar nominee is your film coming of age at the right time.  You can cause a sensation, but lose the head of steam before the voting begins.  Conversely, you can hit your stride days or weeks too late to get where you are hoping to go.

The genius of the Weinstein strategy of the 90s was to let the film get just far enough out of the gate to get nominated and then to whip it to the finish (especially at the box office) after nominations.  Chicago did this from the frontrunner slot … and almost got overtaken by The Pianist.  Shakespeare in Love did it from the late slot … and overcame the seven month frontrunner, Saving Private Ryan.

Some films are never going to gross enough at the box office to be seen as financial hits, and thus, are discounted by Academy voters.  Some films are going to gross too much.

If a movie like Juno, giving it all due credit, opened in the summer and grossed over $100 million, it would have no chance at anything more than a screenwriting and an acting nomination, at best.  It’s just the nature of the beast.  A film like Little Miss Sunshine, grossing $50 million and change at the end of the summer and through the fall, remains an underdog.  But $100 million movie is a commercial hit … and therefore is exponentially less likely to be Oscar nominated.

This brings us to …

Being The Underdog Requires Illusion

While Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen were playing the Underdog card, Dreamgirls was being slammed over and over for overhype … even though the “underdogs” were spending and marketing as aggressively and really more aggressively than the big movie musical.

Letters From Iwo Jima was, really, an underdog, in Japanese, opening late, with only one actor that was remotely recognizable to Academy voters.  But it was an Eastwood … and a vastly superior Eastwood to the one that was an early frontrunner.  So it wasn’t really an underdog at all.

Babel was an underdog … except that it had a large budget, starred international superstar  Brad Pitt, Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, and was touted as an Oscar movie for seven months.

And The Departed, the eventual winner, was perceived as an underdog … even with so many major movie stars that no one could quite figure out who to nominate, over $130 million at the box office, and a lock for Best Director in Marty Scorsese.

Of course, all the other titles were kinda underdogs in other ways.  Little Miss Sunshine was the Indie Spirit movie … kiss of Oscar death (as it likely will be for Juno this year).   Letters From Iwo Jima was seen by six people, was (still) in Japanese, and did not play as gloriously the first time through on DVD as it did on a screen.  Babel was messy and for many, irritating, and won the Golden Globe, which has turned into its own kiss of death lately.  (This year is just like last year, with the Best Drama film being Oscar nom’ed but not a winner while Best Comedy/Musical went without a nom.  Of course, we can’t blame the lack of a nomination on the Globes, as they announce winners after Oscar noms close.  But the coincidence is interesting, no?)  And The Queen was just, in the end, too small and too Brit to win.

Every Scheme Works … Every Scheme Fails

Any of the strategies that have worked recently could have failed.  Any of the strategies that have failed lately could have worked.  A Best Picture nomination is like being in the NFL Pro Bowl.  About 50 men are so honored each year, from a field of 1600 pro players who were picked from an annual field of about 57,000 college (about 150 who make the league each year) who were picked from a field of 1,000,000 high school players.  It is, win or lose, a remarkable feat.

As films get closer to thinking they have a shot, perspective bends.  And it is true, you do need the right strategy in the face of the circumstances you face.  But no one knows exactly how to measure every element … just as so many college stars drafted by the NFL don’t make it and undrafted free agents often do … just as a top athlete can see their career end in a second with an awkward hit that may not have even happened in an important moment in the game … just as an unsung back-up like Tom Brady suddenly emerges as a top quarterback in his first year after laying behind a Pro Bowler who never won a Super Bowl.

It is the most basic thing that the public (and often, the media) forgets when looking at the idea of handicapping the Oscar race … things change.

No one, not even the people paid to manipulate the future of these films, controls how things go.  We all – insiders and out – tend to want to believe otherwise and want others to believe otherwise because we want to maintain the illusion that there is some logic to the parade.  And there is.  If you think it might rain and you bring an umbrella, you could be inconvenienced all day walking around with an umbrella or you might be the smart person who stays dry.  If a girder is falling towards you as you walk under a building, you should get out of the way.  And knowing the territory for your particular film is absolutely a key factor in how a season goes.  But you just don’t know.  You don’t know if the critics will line up.  You don’t know whether you will be accused of overhype.  You don’t know whether your box office will be surprisingly good … or bad.

And then there are situations that are controlled, but that no one outside of the inner circle realizes are out of control … like when your talent is available to promote the film and/or themselves.  How much different would a movie like Sweeney Todd look to awards voters if Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter were out kissing babies instead of having them (well, at least one of them)?  If Keira Knightley had a few weeks to spend in L.A. in November, would the fate of Atonement have changed?  Could George Clooney being the most photographed and quoted star at the Nominees Luncheon lead to an upset of Daniel Day-Lewis?

Speaking of Mr. Day-Lewis …

Critics Only Matter When Unanimous

Critics can’t really kill an Oscar movie … or make an Oscar movie … unless they are united in a clear, loud voice (even if that clear, loud voice is not a vast majority, just the right loudmouths).

This year, we saw what we haven’t seen since 2002 … critics muscling a film into the Best Picture race.

Atonement follows a long line, however of films like Master & Commander, Ray, Munich and BP winner Crash, that got in despite mixed reviews and very little support from the critics groups.

It is an honorable thing when the critics line up with guns a-blazin’ and get a movie like There Would Be Blood that might otherwise be a “crafts only” nomineee deep into the race even as No Country For Old Men remains, when you look at the year, The Critics’ Choice.

Five More Rules The Next Time …

Somehow, this may be the first Oscar season in memory without The Great Settling.

It’s not really clear whether it’s because of the films themselves or because of the WGA strike or the fact that the latest entry into the race – in Hollywood showings, not theatrical release date – was There Will Be Blood, first shown widely to critics the first week of November.

The field this year was narrower earlier.  Speculation after movies had been shown never really went deeper than 10 films at a time.  And by the time that the pre-Oscar nomination season ended on December 13, there were really seven or eight films in play.

The settling happened before Oscar ballots were sent out… and it wasn’t great and  Academy members weren’t really party to it.

As it’s worked out, the constituencies have been served.

The Lady’s Choice is Atonement.

The Hip & Light Crowd luvs Juno.

Old School Hollywood is there for Michael Clayton.

Quality Lovers Who Like An Edge, But Not too Much Edge are there for No Country For Old Men.

The Manly Lovers Of Big Show Filmmaking adore There Will Be Blood.

Interestingly, this list, in alphabetical order, gets more masculine in taste as it moves from A to T.  And is it a coincidence that the movie right in the middle is Michael Clayton, the one pure consensus film on the list?

The core principle of Academy voting is, “I don’t want to waste my vote.”  And this becomes even more significant in the final voting than in the nomination voting.

Also, the hard question of, “Do we want this film to represent the Academy forever and ever?” becomes more pronounced.

There is a reason why only five comedies have won Best Picture in the 79 years of Oscar.  And there are bigger reasons for each of those… Shakespeare In Love was about show biz and had a Brit acccent… Annie Hall was a Woody Allen career moment… Tom Jones was fronting the British Invasion… You Can’t Take It With You was Capra, Kaufman & Hart… It Happened One Night was Capra, Gable, Colbert and famously changed American industry by killing the undershirt for a while).

It’s also been 20 years since a film grossing less than $50 million domestic won the Oscar.  And that is before the win.  Going back 30 years, there is no film with a gross under $40 million at the winner’s gate.

Both of these stats scream No Country For Old Men will win.

Michael Clayton added $2.2 million this last weekend, talking its total to almost $42 million, but $50 million is probably out of reach.

Of course, stats aren’t everything.  Every time someone reaches for a stat that proves a point, fate seems to shoot it down.

On the other hand, there is that editing stat… which again points to No Country For Old Men.

But you know what the most powerful tool in getting No Country into the winner’s circle is?  Repeating over and over that it is going to win.

Academy voters, like all voters, in all elections from elementary school to President of the United States, want to vote for the winner.  So if the inevitability of No Country is said enough, it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

And that is why you see round-the-clock television ads for There Will Be Blood, demanding that we pay attention and take it seriously.  They think they have a chance to win, so they are going to keep telling you that they have a chance to win.

The trouble is, if every Academy voter who really wants to vote for TWBB does so, it still will likely come up a bit short.  It is not, in the end, a consensus movie.  This does not make its place in history any more suspect.  It is the nature of the awards beast, not the love of movies.  (Though I must laugh at those who claimed that PTA didn’t care about awards and was not chasing them earlier in the season… hee hee.  Just like Clint doesn’t care.)

It’s an odd line to walk, between letting them know you want it and not begging for it. As a result, year after year, the geniuses of Phase One seem to wilt in Phase Two, much more likely to allow the winds to carry them to their fates.

And maybe that is better for everyone…

So …

Few real surprises.  A couple pleasant.  A couple less so.

The score from There Will Be Blood was disqualified at the last minute … so that is a shame.  Rather brilliant work.

Laura Linney ran well under the radar in critics’ world … and still got in.

Tommy Lee Jones got a nod, not for his bigger financial success, but for In The Valley Of Elah, which may now get a longer, deserved look from the world on DVD.

Jason Reitman in a shocker got a directing nod for Juno, leaving candidates like Sidney Lumet and DGA nominee Sean Penn by the curb.

PGA missed one, with Diving Bell falling to Atonement, which had lots of crafts support, screenplay, and only one acting nod.

Lots of people will feel good about Sarah Polley getting a screenplay nod for Away From Her, as WGA misses on 3 of 10.

Enchanted gets three of the five song nominations as Eddie Vedder gets a shot to the groin.

And Cate Blanchett proves her Oscar lovedness by grabbing a nod for a dead movie ahead of Jolie’s dead movie and Ms Knightley’s clingy green dress and clipped accent.

Ahem …

Cynthia Swartz’s favorite stat – which was part of the Crash comeback – is that winning Best Picture without at least an editing nod is very rare … which points to No Country For Old Men or There Will Be Blood, the only two Best Pictures to get editing nods this year.

Potential upsets?  Ellen Page, unending quiet veteran Julie Christie and unknown quantity Marion Cotillard?  Janusz Kaminski for Cinematography while Deakins splits his vote?  George Clooney for Best Actor?  No End In Sight beating the traditional winner for doc, the highest grosser, Sicko?

Will Michael Giacchino finally get his due for the score for Ratatouille with a field not including No Country or Blood?

Can Norbit win an Oscar after, perhaps, losing one for Eddie Murphy?

Can Persepolis upend The Rat?

Will Best Supporting Actor be the early bellweather of the evening … a Bardem upset by Wilkinson or Holbrook meaning something … or will a Javier indicate business as usual and an No Country win?

I wish I had more to say … but the truth is, the noms went pretty much according to plan.  Gurus o’ Gold was 35 of 40 in the Top 8 categories, so not too many real shockers and none of the shockers have a chance to win, really.

And so the finals begin.  The WGA strike continues, though few on the inside think that we will still be mid-strike when the Oscars are given out in a month and 3 days.  Now the Academy members will surely watch all five films and more … angles will be taken … arguments will be made … and in the end, people will be pretty happy with the five films standing up for them in the end.

Not so bad.

(My first post-nom charts will be up tomorrow.)