Posts Tagged ‘The Lives of Others’

Best Actor, Best Actress Chart

Thursday, February 21st, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Tommy Lee Jones – In The Valley Of Elah

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page – Juno
Laura Linney – The Savages
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, February 21st, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Michael Clayton
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Atonement

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
The Coen Bros
No Country For Old Men
Ya.
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman
Juno

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Juno
Diablo Cody
Michael Clayton
Tony Gilroy
The Savages
Tamara Jenkins
Lars & The Real Girl
Nancy Oliver
Ratatouille
Brad Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
Atonement
Christopher Hampton
Away From Her
Sarah Polley

3 Days To Go Golden Days Before They End

Thursday, February 21st, 2008

And so… we near the end.

Looking back at my first column, 19 weeks ago, there is not a single thing in it that remotely embarrasses me.  3 of the 5 nominees were in my Top 4.  The other 2 were near the bottom of the first Top 15, but appropriately so at the time.

We were discussing the dark movies, the two comedies, the contenders that didn’t have the marketing muscle to make it, the three titles from first-time directors that ended up being BP nominated, the half-dozen well-liked pictures that had already seen their fates sealed by poor box office reception, and Clayton being the only early October survivor (No Country held off expansion until November)… still themes of discussion.

My point is not to smell my own farts here.  The point is, it’s been that kind of season.

Julie Christie, Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney, Javier Bardem, the Coens, Diablo vs Gilroy, Ellen Page emerging, love lettering Holbrook and Dee, Cotillard trying to find her balance in English, Haggis’ film getting mishandled with a terrible date, two Paramount films launching their Oscar campaigns in Harry Knowles’ lap to little effect (though one did get nominated, thanks to the real critics), and Searchlight, Miramax, Vantage, Focus, and WB continuing to be the dominant players in the last five years with 17 of the last 25 Best Picture nominations between them.

Déjà vu all over the place.  All you have to do is to listen to the ground.

This is not to say that new companies can’t break into the game.  Universal has managed 3 nominations in that period, though there is a sense that two have been for well-liked films flogged for with an unusual amount of awards marketing dollars and the third was Spielberg on Jewish pain.  New Line had their 2 Rings nods.  And aside from that, it’s only 1 each for Lionsgate, Sony Classics, and Fox.  Lionsgate is the only true indie that has managed a nod in the last 5 years.

And if No Country wins on Sunday night, it will mean that in five of the last six years, the winning movie has had either Cynthia Swartz or Michelle Robertson on the film as a leading consultant, dominating as Universal & Tony Angellotti and Terry Press’ DreamWorks team had in the years before that.

This doesn’t mean that someone else can’t be on the winning team… but the question of who will be the next great consulting voice is not answered.  This is not meant to discount the value of all the terrific consultants out there, some of whom have also been working on movies that won and some of whom have gotten nominations against all odds.  And even the best can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear… at least not in the winner’s circle.  Really, can anyone really doubt the strength of the Searchlight and Fox Vantage teams in the last couple of years?  There is no better mechanic in the game than Lisa Taback. But until they break the tape at the finish… well, in the Oscar game, winning isn’t everything, but it is 80% of everything.

Anyway…

People want to talk about box office not mattering… yet once again, there was no Best Picture nominee release before December 26 (There Will Be Blood) with less than $32 million in the domestic box office.  And it wasn’t just obviously financially troubled movies that didn’t make the cut.  Films that did okay, but seemed like disappointments died as well, whether Sweeney Todd ($52m dom/$122m ww, #7 musical of all time), Charlie Wilson’s War ($66m dom/$98m ww) or The Great Debaters ($30m, $26m when noms closed).

Journalists have been left spinning their wheels like gerbils in a show biz cage for weeks.  This week’s laugher is Juno as the threat to No Country.  No way.  God bless the film.  God bless Peter Rice & Co, who delivered a mainstream comedy right out of ApatowVille that is not only the highest grossing film in Searchlight’s remarkable history, but which will come close to doubling the domestic gross of the #2 film, Sideways. But Oscar doesn’t give the award to non-showbiz comedies (Shakespeare in Love being the one arguable comedy in recent history), the last exception being Annie Hall, 30 years ago.  (And you could make the argument that it was a show biz comedy, following Woody from coast to coast.)

Moreover, it is the classic example of a “little movie” that got too big to win.  Shakespeare in Love didn’t crack $100 million until weeks after it won.  Nor did Driving Miss Daisy. There just is no history for a film becoming a surprise box office monster and winning.  And there will be none this year.

You want to make a case for There Will Be Blood?  Good luck.  What is the precedent?  Eastwood?  Letters From Iwo Jima didn’t win.  Million Dollar Baby was over $60 million when the final vote closed and was the #3 film when it was nominated.  TWBB is at $32 million, #5 in the group of nominees.

No one is even considering Atonement as an option… though you couldn’t easily make any argument against it beyond, “It ain’t that good… it’s not that well liked.”

The argument against Michael Clayton could be that it is still in the #4 box office slot and is likely to be stuck there unless it wins the Oscar, since Atonement, only $123,000 ahead at the box office, is still winning head-to-head, day-by-day.  But aside from that, it makes perfect sense as the alternative to No Country For Old Men. It’s New Old Hollywood with Clooney, Wilkinson, Gilroy, and even Swinton to some degree.  It’s serious, but it doesn’t choke you with its weight.  And no one in the Academy will be embarrassed to say that it was this year’s Best Picture.

Still, the movie that has made the long haul and is still most likely to follow in its own precursor footsteps is No Country For Old Men. It’s the third Coen Bros film to score nods for the brothers, inarguably amongst the five most important American filmmakers to emerge in the last two decades.  It’s their second Best Picture nominee.  It seems like the time is now.

Six of the last ten and thirteen of the last twenty Best Picture winners have been directed by well-set, mostly previously-nominated veterans.  What film this year makes sense following the legacy of Haggis, Marshall, Mendes, Madden, Minghella, Gibson, and Costner?  (Interesting that the only one who was born in America was Costner, eh?)

So… Money says No Country.  Veteran status says No Country.  The Editing Stat says No Country.  DGA’s 70% picking BP winners, not Directing winners says No Country.  The Golden Globes 90% Wrong in Best Picture (and how could they miss Return of the King?) with 10 shots in the last five years says No Country.  NY Film Critics (3 matching in the last 10 years), BFCA (6 of 10), and SAG (5 in 10) all say No Country.  And more than double the critics awards of any other film and five times the number of Best Picture wins of the next closest titles…

It ALL seems to say No Country.

And there is no reason to really think it won’t win.  The people around the film have not strutted around like they already won it.  There is no “must love” film sauntering around in the background… just four films with strong constituencies for adult conscience drama, directing, comedy, and period romance.  Even its male lead, Tommy Lee Jones, got an Oscar nod… for another picture… but contributing to the ‘feel right” of it all.

It is likely to be as boring and pleasant an Oscar night as any in memory.

And then, on Monday, the discussion between Swartz and Rudin about the positioning of Revolutionary Road will continue.  Is it Mendes time for a second Oscar?  Will The Great Kate with a K finally win her first Oscar?  Will Leo get his?  Will Deakins be a negative if he wins this year… or great bait of he loses this year?  Can Scott Rudin be the Bride twice in two years after being left out of even bridesmaid status all but once in over a decade of being in the chase?

Or will the film end up being just another quality Oscar miss with pedigree to spare?

I don’t know.

And I don’t really care.

We are exactly 3 months away from Indiana Jones IV (Harrison Ford needs an IV around now) and a whip arrived by courier on Wednesday to prove it.  It’s the off-season.  We have a SAG strike to avoid and a President to elect.  Monday morning I get on a cruise ship with 200 of my favorite Canadians, heading for Mexico, for the Floating Festival, which will honor the recently passed great man, Dusty Cohl and a great living actress, Gena Rowlands.

We look to the future by appreciating our past. And loving movies.

For me, the joy of this season has come half an hour at a time, talking to the likes of Bardem and Cotillard and Polley and Mortensen and Page and Swinton and Wilkinson and Gilroy and Brolin and Gosling and Gillespie and Oliver and Schnabel and Kaminski and Harwood and Ryan and Holbrook and Ronan and Gibney and Amalric and Croze and so many others who I never got to spend time with on camera but hung out with like Linney and Jenkins and Clooney and Ferguson and Haggis and Knightley and Rudin and even the unnominated like Burton and Taymor and Adams and Blonsky and Kelley and Hirsch and Clarkson and Mortimer and McAvoy and Langella and Riley and Turturro and Cronenberg and Bosco and Lee and Jordan and Nair…

The joy of getting to know just a little bit more about these people is such a pleasure and such and privilege (and for those who I didn’t name but gave me time as well). These are the memories that will stick with me forever… not the dance of the pundits.

The closer you get to the work, the more that the work is all that really matters.

Viva la cinema!

The Academy Awards: 2008

Saturday, February 16th, 2008

The intoxicant most widely trafficked in the lead-up to the Academy Awards is glamour. One night each year, the world’s most fabuloso personalities gather in a single location to sell pipedreams to the rubes in Hicksville who must content themselves with watching the fatuous coverage on TV.

Even as viewers are weaning themselves from the attendant hype, the media can’t kick the celebrity habit.

This year, apart from some suspicious choices in the Best Song and Foreign Language categories, the nominees are sound, and the length of the writers’ strike mercifully forced party planners to ratchet down their sickening displays of gluttony and self-love. Even so, by successfully turning December into the only month that matters, the studios have limited exposure to the worthy finalists to such a degree, only a small percentage of the television audience will have seen the movies in contention.

As ratings of recent ceremonies suggest, the only viewers willing to stay tuned after the three-hour mark are those with a vested interest in the outcomes of the more prestigious contests. Considering that Juno has grossed twice as much as the next most commercially successful Best Picture candidate – No Country for Old Men, at $59 million – the academy should strongly consider having Miley Cyrus (a.k.a. Hannah Montana) and Dwayne Johnson (“The Rock) open the night’s most important envelope. Even I might stay up to see that.

On the left coast, of course, viewers are allowed plenty of time to finish their naps and catch the party action, which the L.A. stations and cable infotainment channels cover with breathless intensity. It’s the one of night of the year when the paparazzi and celebrities are working towards a common goal – personal aggrandizement – and the magnetic appeal of free booze and fancy grub is on display for the world to witness. Because cameras aren’t allowed in the bathrooms or under the tables – and Cops doesn’t pay valets to give Breathalyzer tests to the stars, before handing over the keys to their SUVs – the glamorous Hollywood of old is paraded out as if it were Brigadoon (adapted by John Waters).

Among the winners, celebrities and panty-deprived ingénues who won’t be awarded much air time in the wee hours are those nominees whose fates were sealed in during the moments reserved for stars to grab a cigarette, take a pee or powder their noses. Those competing in the technical and shorts categories – and, absent an Almodovar or Moore, the foreign-language and documentary finalists — generally are seated closer to Highland Avenue than the stage … far enough removed as to eliminate the need for seat-holders.

And, for most of artists relegated to fringes of the Kodak Theater, that’s perfectly OK. If they can snap off a few photos of themselves on the Red Carpet — and their cellphone batteries hold out — they’ll die happy, knowing their names will be preceded by “Oscar-nominated in obituaries.

These are the folks I remember most fondly when I look back on the Academy Awards ceremonies I was paid to cover. You can always pick them out from the parade of studio executives and pals of academy weasels because they’re the ones who aren’t being interviewed by the entertainment press and their formal attire looks as if it were rented or was chosen off a rack. (The stars who most easily can afford designer gowns and fine jewelry are the ones least likely to have actually purchased them.) The first-timers are the ones who plant themselves on the Red Carpet and refuse to move when prodded by security goons. Why leave the best seat in the house? God bless ’em.

The nominees in the “minor categories remind me of the forgotten folks in flyover-land who are still waiting for Atonement to open in a theater within a hundred miles of home, and are so respectful of the movie-going experience that, once seated, they wouldn’t think of answering their cellphone. They may not be able to remember the last good movie they saw at the local multiplex, but will sit through the presentations of Oscars to engineers, designers and those filmmakers who work short, while thinking big.

Happily, these are the buffs served best by such innovative home-delivery services as Netflix, Facets and Movies Unlimited/TCM. While studio executives and other media concerns salivate over the possibility of selling movies intended for display in theaters to teenagers with teeny-weeny iPods, these companies have leveled the playing field by delivering a wonderfully diverse catalogue of movies, short subjects, documentaries, television programs and cultural events to underserved viewers in far-flung destinations.

When Mohammed couldn’t get to the arthouse, the arthouse came to Mohammed. The same principle also applies to the short and foreign-language films nominated each year for Oscars, but rarely, if ever were made available for public consumption.

Starting this weekend, anyone who’s ever wondered what’s so special about short films can find out by attending special screenings in dozens of theaters nationwide. If that isn’t a convenient option, the 10 nominated live-action and animated shorts can be downloaded onto iTunes and viewed on the video monitor of a home computer. Hosted by Magnolia Pictures and Shorts International, these programs have benefitted from their association with AMPAS’ Oscar brand, and have swiftly become an awards-season tradition.

Combine the efficiency of home-delivery services – and the reams of background material available to their customers — with the convenience of such Internet resource sites as imdb.com, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and Mr. Skin, and, voila, a door opens to a vast new world of cinematic opportunity.

For example:

Ever wonder what made two-time Oscar nominee Javier Bardem such a hot commodity, prior to his emergence in Before Night Falls and No Country for Old Men? Last week, via Netflix, I was able to travel back to the dawn of the hunky Spaniard’s career, and find several answers to the questio. In the early ’90s, Bardem delivered memorable performances in Bigas Lunas’ sexy dramedies, Huevos de Oro and La Teta i la lluna, neither of which was released in the U.S., and Jamón, jamón, which was. At the same time, I was able to study Penelope Cruz’ theatrical debut in Jamon, jamon and enjoy watching Benicio del Toro in Huevos de Oro, making love to Maribel Verdú, of Y tu mamá también.

The same sort of game can be played with Best Actress front-runner Marion Cotillard, who delivered such a remarkable portrayal of Edith Piaf, in La Vie en rose. A closer perusal of the DVD and its bonus features provides all the evidence one would need to understand why the biopic also was nominated in the Best Achievement in Makeup category. If I hadn’t already seen Cotillard in A Good Year and Big Fish, I might have been tempted to visit imdb.com and find out what she looked like without makeup. I might very well check out her performances in Luc Besson’s Taxi trilogy, though.

At once, another road to discovery opened up before me.

Even though La Vie en rose (a.k.a.,La Môme) was nominated for 3 Oscars, 11 Cesars and 7 Bafta awards, France caused a short-lived uproar by electing not to submit the film for consideration as in the Best Foreign Language category. Instead, the panel recommended Persepolis, Vincent Paronnaud and Marjane Satrapi’s animated story of a precocious Persian girl, coming of age during the Iranian revolution. The picture found universal praise among American critics, but will have its work cut out for it againstRatatouille and Surf’s Up.

(It’s possible that France anticipated Cotillard’s Oscar nod, for Best Lead Actress, and passed over La Môme simply to piss off the Iranian officials who lobbied against its selection. Organizers of the 2007 Bangkok Film Festival buckled under the pressure from Tehran, dropping Persepolis from its lineup.)

Last year, in an attempt to avoid similar controversies, academy officials borrowed the winnowing process favored by judges in the documentary category. It would release a “short list of candidates, a week ahead of the official announcement of nominations. While the 2007 list was impeccable — After the Wedding (Denmark), The Lives of Others (Germany), Pan’s Labyrinth (Mexico) and Days of Glory (France) – the 2008 ballot baffled many observers by failing even to short-list Persepolis and the Romanian abortion drama, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, which was a multiple winner at Cannes.

Just as France had two legitimate candidates, but could only submit one for Oscar consideration, Israel’s dilemma extended into the realms of politics and procedure. In the process of vetoing the submission of The Band’s Visit, the much-admired story of an Egyptian police band that mistakenly ends up stranded overnight in a small Israeli town, the committee found it necessary to put a stopwatch on the dialogue. Citing academy guidelines that stipulate more than 50 percent of a film’s dialogue be in a language other than English, the selection committee was given a legitimate excuse for its decision. Even as their calculations were disputed by the film’s American distributor, however, others argued that political motivations were behind the action. The war drama Beaufort was submitted, instead, and it successfully made the cut, along with films from Mongolia, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan.

Beaufort debuted here at last month’s Palm Springs Film Festival, before opening on three screens in New York, while Austria’s Nazi-era thriller, The Counterfeiters, will get a limited release next week. With no big-name actors or directors involved, this year’s Foreign Language contest will be of interest only to buffs, nationalists and conspiracy theorists. Most of us will have to wait until the DVDs arrive, before adding our opinions.

Again, by way of comparison, big-city audiences can get an early handle on the level of competition, when Cao Hamburger’s bittersweet The Year My Parents Went on Vacation opens this weekend in select theaters. The Brazilian entry made the short list of nine films, but was denied a trip to the finals. If the other five movies turn out to be superior to Hamburger’s compelling period drama, there will be much to anticipate in the coming months.

Hamburger’s factually based story takes place in 1970, as World Cup fever and a brutal crackdown on dissenters play out simultaneously throughout Brazil. An educated Jewish couple abruptly informs their 10-year-old son they’re leaving Belo Horizonte, and going on “vacation” of indeterminate length. The boy, Mauro, is to be left with his grandfather, who lives in Sao Paulo’s teeming Bom Retiro neighborhood. It is an established conclave of lower-middle-class Jews, Italians and native Brazilians.

Unbeknownst to the couple, who hurriedly drop Mauro and his bags off on the curb, before speeding away, the old man has just suffered a fatal heart attack. It takes a while for an elderly neighbor to return home and open his door to the boy. Even though Mauro doesn’t understand Yiddish, and the bearded gentleman hasn’t a clue about the circumstances surrounding the boy’s arrival, shelter is offered and accepted.

Like almost everyone else in Brazil, Mauro is a rabid fan of the national team. It helps him make friends with an energetic young girl in the building, and she introduces him to the denizens of the lower-middle-class neighborhood. Soccer is the common language of the street, and, Pele is the Moses leading the team and its supporters to the Promised Land.

The old man, Schlomo, is deeply religious. Perplexed by the unexpected and unwanted arrival of the boy, who would rather kick a ball through the streets of Sao Paulo than attend schul, he seeks the advice of his rabbi. The rabbi convinces Schlomo that his unexpected guest is a gift from god, however challenging his presence might be.

Even as Pele and his compatriots climb the ladder to the championship match — to be contested in Mexico City – Hamburger and co-writer Claudio Galperin put the military in position to swoop in and crack down on dissidents. Apparently, Mauro’s parents are known to radicals at the local university, and they, in turn, keep a quiet watch for his safety.

Although Mauro doesn’t understand what his parents meant by going on “vacation,” viewers who can remember the turmoil that blanketed South America in the early ’70s will have guessed early on that they went underground to avoid being arrested, tortured and, perhaps, killed. Argentinean filmmakers have produced several dramas referencing the disappearance of dissidents, which extended to the abduction of their children for placement in the homes of childless couples.

(In 1982, Costa-Gravas referenced America’s involvement in the assassination of Chilean leader, Salvador Allende, and subsequent slaughter of leftists. Last year, his daughter, Julia, recalled the same period in Blame It on Fidel! In 2002, John Malkovich directed Javier Bardem in The Dancer Upstairs, a drama inspired by the war between Peruvian police and Shining Light guerrillas.)

It wasn’t until the military governments collapsed, years later, that filmmakers, writers and artists enjoyed the freedom to comment on the unreported murders of their friends, relatives and teachers. Instead of relying on polemics to deliver a message to audience, Hamburger accentuates the humanism at the core of Schlomo and Mauro’s ability to peacefully co-exist. The excitement generated by Brazil’s quest for another World Cup is evident in the multi-hued faces of the fans who gather in the neighborhood’s restaurants and bars, as is the general aura of dread. None of the parallel stories drains the entertainment value from the others.

It may not have made the Oscar cut, but The Year My Parents Went on Vacation is the best movie opening this weekend, and the only one adults are likely to enjoy.

Also, beginning Friday, buffs will be given an opportunity to survey the candidates for Oscars in both of the Best Short Film categories. Besides providing several hours’ worth fine entertainment, the screenings allow fans to interact — albeit subconsciously — with those academy members deciding which title will be announced at next weekend’s ceremony.

This year, for the first time in memory, all of the competing shorts are from countries other than the United States. Needless to say, most also are subtitled. Not surprisingly, all are terrifically entertaining.

Competition is as intense in the lesser-appreciated categories as it is in those whose winners are announced in the show’s final hour. In the 2007 Animation competition, The Danish Poet, a Norwegian-Canadian co-production, played David against the shorts submitted by Goliaths Disney, Pixar and 20th Century Fox. In the Live Action category, the winner was West Bank Story, a musical comedy made by Americans about rival falafel stands on Israel’s West Bank. Other candidates were from Senegal, Australia, Spain and Denmark. American products have been shut out of one or the other shorts category, but not both at the same time.

Considering how little the academy does to enhance our enjoyment of the overlong and increasingly self-important ceremony, the program developed by Magnolia Pictures and Shorts International beats hiring Regis Philbin to host the pre-show and calling it progress. The quality of the movies themselves warrant the attention of movie lovers.

Those so inclined can find a list of the participating theaters, in about 70 cities, by going to www.magpictures.com. The Live Action program lasts 137 minutes, while the animated program tops out at 90 minutes. Each one requires separate admission. (You can get information on the films and artists at www.britshorts.com.) Magnolia has also collected the 2007 candidates in DVD, and it can be found on the websites of the aforementioned home-delivery services.

Unless they live in New York or Los Angeles, viewers passionate about documentaries aren’t quite as fortunate. Information on pre-Oscar DocuDays in those cities is available at www.documentary.org.

2008 Live Action Shorts

AT NIGHT (Denmark): Three young women share their problems while spending the holidays in a hospital cancer ward.

THE SUBSTITUTE (Italy): The arrival of an unusual newcomer galvanizes the students in a high school classroom.

THE MOZART OF PICKPOCKETS (France): A pair of unlucky thieves find their fortunes have changed when they take in a deaf homeless boy.

TANGHI ARGENTINI (Belgium): A man who must learn to dance the tango in two weeks asks an office colleague for help.

THE TONTO WOMAN (United Kingdom):. Based on a story by Elmore Leonard, a cattle rustler meets a woman who is living in isolation after being held prisoner for 11 years by the Mojave Indians

2008 Animated Shorts

I MET THE WALRUS (Canada) In 1969, 14-year-old Jerry Levitan snuck into John Lennon’s hotel room with his tape recorder and persuaded him to do an interview.

MADAME TUTLI-PUTLI (Canada) A timid woman boards a mysterious night train and has a series of frightening experiences.

EVEN PIGEONS GO TO HEAVEN (France): A priest tries to sell an old man a machine that he promises will transport him to heaven.

MY LOVE (Russia): In 19th Century Russia, a teenage boy in search of love is drawn to two very different women.

PETER & THE WOLF (United Kingdom/Poland): A young boy and his animal friends face a hungry wolf in an updated version of Prokofiev’s classic musical piece.

February 16, 2008

– Gary Dretzka

Best Actor, Best Actress Chart

Thursday, February 14th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Tommy Lee Jones – In The Valley Of Elah

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page – Juno
Laura Linney – The Savages
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, February 14th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Michael Clayton
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Atonement

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
The Coen Bros
No Country For Old Men
Ya.
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman
Juno

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Juno
Diablo Cody
Michael Clayton
Tony Gilroy
The Savages
Tamara Jenkins
Lars & The Real Girl
Nancy Oliver
Ratatouille
Brad Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Joel & Ethan Coen
Only way they lose if it consolations someone else
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
Atonement
Christopher Hampton
Away From Her
Sarah Polley

9 Days To Go The Ten Rules Of The Season, Pt 2

Thursday, February 14th, 2008

More rules… [The first five are here.]

Timing Is As Important As The Film

It’s one of the lessons that we learn again every season.  Timing matters as much as any other element of the process.

Can a summer release be nominated in January?  Of course.  Or March?  Sure.  The biggest problem with spring releases has become the short DVD window.  With tens of millions now going into DVD campaigns, the DVD launch is an excellent opportunity for an awards campaign to piggyback on costs and to aggressively remind voters about a movie they loved early in the year.  But not if you are releasing your DVD in August…

Even a July movie now gets an October DVD release, which means that a studio will have to keep selling the movie with a separate and expensive Oscar campaign in  November and December if the film is going to have a shot.

Conversely, December has become a treacherous time to release an Oscar hopeful.  Unless you start showing your movie by early November, you are fighting an uphill battle, as all the pre-Oscar awarding groups are gearing up to make choices in the first two weeks of December.  Some movies still get away with it, There Will Be Blood being this year’s example (though it still showed in the first half of November).  But while a brilliant campaign was run and earlier exposure may well have killed the film in the season, there was still a degree of good fortune in the timing.  As much as the film earned its position, it also benefited from a dearth of serious contenders… a parade of wannabes falling short when push came to shove.

American Gangster set itself up just right… but the movie wasn’t strong enough.  TWBB, conversely, was by far the lowest grossing film of the nominated group when it was nominated… but drew the kind of unrestrained passion that got it a nomination.

Juno’s timing was perfection, as it danced away from the “too successful” problem that comedies and many bigger studio films have, staying “this year’s Little Miss Sunshine” for its supporters.  Besides comedies having a hard time getting in, that perception of it being “the little movie that could” is key… and the key to that is timing.  Searchlight pushed it further by being a little disingenuous.  When the film opened at Telluride, it was a “TBA,” with the claim that the studio wasn’t sure whether it would be ready.  By the time it hit Toronto, four days later, there was plenty of advertising in Toronto’s streets… consumer ads, wild postings, etc… that had not been conceived overnight (no pun intended) and which represented what turned out to be the campaign for the film from that day until now.  At the same time, Juno was on screens long enough and on enough screens to qualify before nomination voting as a clear hit, which was also key timing in making voters feel that a vote for the film would not be wasted.

As I have written before, Atonement used the Brokeback Mountain strategy, showing at the September fests, where it got its sails full of wind.  Then it was held back from much screening until mid-November.  Then it was re-unleashed.  The difference was that the public embrace of the film was far more muted than that of Brokeback.  Still, the Women’s Vote was enough to get the only major costume drama of the season into the nominee’s luncheon.

And both Michael Clayton and No Country For Old Men – the two films that have a shot to win, with Old Men well in the lead and Clayton mostly a possible spoiler if TWBB eats enough of No country’s votes – opened in October… and lingered.  They lingered the way that only well-liked, intelligent, challenging films do.  The two stylists of the “let them stew” campaigns, Cynthia Swartz and Michelle Robertson, have very different styles of pushing these October releases along.

The Robertson-consulted The Departed won last year, as Swartz’s No Country is likely to win this year.  Swartz used a similar strategy on The Queen last year even with a May release, again with Crash a few years back… which upset Robertson’s Brokeback Mountain. Robertson almost upset a more aggressive Swartz and Lundberg and the Weinstein Machine on Chicago with a low-key run of The Pianist a few years back.  Of course, both of these talented women work for marketing departments and studios that are very involved in the work and also have other consultants and allies of many stripes in the process.  Neither would suggest otherwise.  But it is not a coincidence that these two masters of timing and patience are in the race every year.

Nancy Utley’s team at Fox Searchlight – which, not coincidentally, had Paramount Vantage’s Oscar leader, Megan Collagen, on board as they figured out the territory – has figured out their methodology as well, getting more skilled every year since they flopped with Antoine Fisher and refused to push In America, which was finished and more of the moment the year before it was released, into the Oscar race.  These days, they would throw both out into the pond and see which floated.  Searchlight has clearly taken a page from the old Weinstein book, going five deep with “Oscar movies” and then weeding them out as they go along.  Of course, some movies, like Margot At The Wedding, were never going to race.  Others, like The Savages, get caught in a ringer when a movie like Juno emerges and becomes the home team favorite.  In an odd way, The Savages timing was bad internally, as the film was “that good,” but while it sat for a year before its release, Juno was not the only golden child that got more notice.  Even Waitress and Once, picked up at the same Sundance where The Savages got a stronger reception that either, was given the red carpet, while The Savages was all but bum rushed.

That brings us to…

Get Lucky

It’s no joke.  Not everything can be planned.  Luck has a lot to do with it.

You can never just lay back and wait for luck.  But with few exceptions, you need to get some breaks.  Chicago was the Hillary Clinton of its Oscar year… and The Obama-nist almost caught up.  Would the wave for The Pianist have started a few weeks early and overcome Chicago if the premiere in L.A. hadn’t left 1000 people not seeing the film that night?

How much of The Departed winning last year was a failure of the other movies to catch or maintain their fire?

Was part of Crash’s win people who didn’t like or want to see a win for Brokeback Mountain too uncomfortable to talk about it publicly, therefore never exposing their interest in Crash to the brickbats thrown at the film after it won?

Speaking of Crash…

Phase II Matters

This is becoming one of my pet peeves in experiencing each Oscar season.  People go nuts trying to get a nomination and then relax once they get it.  Ad budgets – for most – get reduced, publicity efforts are less intense, and there is a vague sense that once the nominations are set, the campaign is over and it’s about the movies.

But it’s not true.

I can understand if this makes some people want to kill me about now.  But as we see in the political primaries, resting on your laurels is dangerous stuff… if you care about winning.

In an odd way, I think that pushing for a nomination feels safer for most studios and filmmakers than pushing for the win does.  To repeat last week’s analogy, it’s like pushing for the Pro Bowl if you are a football player.  Or closer to home, in the years of being a columnist and site editor, I have decided that I really am not interested in chasing any awards for which I have to submit the work (and usually pay) to be in the running.  It’s just not very dignified.  If the work is good enough, it should find its place.  And if I have to tell you that I am worthy of an award, I’m not all that worthy.

In any case… it’s not that all efforts stop for all movies the day after nominations are had… but the is an increased restraint and a greater emphasis on things that can done without exposing the talent.  The most famous decision (and most debated in regards to whose idea it really was) was the DVD dump by Crash. I would argue, as I did then, that the dump itself was a show of desire and that was enough to win the day when there was a quiet Brokeback backlash and no other film showing its ass in an effort to win.

There are, actually, more efforts made on behalf of the creative guilds for their nominees… lots and lots of events.

Maybe asking for it and losing anyway is just too painful to consider.  But asking is a powerful force in the Oscar season.  And if you don’t ask, you better have some mighty wave of energy working for you without you asking.

One of those energy sources…

Make Money

No one likes to believe that money matters to Oscar.

But money matters to Oscar.

Too much can knock you out as “too commercial.”  Too little and you’re “too obscure.”

The last time the Best Picture winner had less than $50 million in the domestic bank when it was voted in for the win was 1987…  20 years ago.

In the last decade, the #1 or #2 grosser at the time final voting closed won 8 of 10… and the other 2 wins went to #3.   If you are #4 or #5, you are out of luck.  (This year, that means No Country or the unlikely Juno – too successful and a comedy – with Michael Clayton as the outside shot.)

People love a winner… so you have to win enough to get that love.

And finally…

Don’t Give Up

It’s that simple.

Studios give up in all kinds of ways.  And we, in the media and in the caring world, can smell it like a drug dog can smell Woody Harrelson… miles and miles away.

You can flail and you can fail and you can not have the tools… but giving up is the one sure way of killing off your movie.

I don’t want to call out the films and studios that gave up this year.  (You know who you are.)  Too mean for no reason.  And there are plenty of players who failed for other reasons.

But the long run is rough and tumble and not for the faint of heart.  Surprising success comes to those with patience and foresight… and an ad budget.

Maybe giving up is the right thing, sometimes.  But as the old ad said, you gotta be in it to win it.

And this year, the winning is just around the corner.

Best Actor, Best Actress Chart

Thursday, February 7th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Forrest Whitaker – Last King Of Scotland (GG/Drama) (BFCA) (SAG)
Peter O’Toole – Venus
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Helen Mirren – The Queen (GG/D) (BFCA) (SAG)
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench – Notes On A Scandal
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Penelope Cruz – Volver

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG)
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (GG) (BFCA) (SAG)
Cate Blanchett – Notes of a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, February 7th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Harder and harder to beat, but not invulnerable
Michael Clayton
Still has an outside shot
Juno
The real dark horse in the race
There Will Be Blood
Atonement

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
The Coen Bros
No Country For Old Men
Ya.
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman
Juno

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Michael Clayton
Tony Gilroy
Could be the consolation prize for Gilroy
Juno
Diablo Cody
Out front for a long time… maybe too long
The Savages
Tamara Jenkins
Lars & The Real Girl
Nancy Oliver
Ratatouille
Brad Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Joel & Ethan Coen
Only way they lose if it consolations someone else
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
Atonement
Christopher Hampton
Away From Her
Sarah Polley

17 Days To Go The Ten Rules Of The Season

Thursday, February 7th, 2008

Perspective is hard to come by this time of year. Here are 10 general rules you might want to consider when you consider this wacky game of movie chess.

Don’t Be The Frontrunner … Unless You Can’t Lose

Being the frontrunner from the start to the finish line is not the norm in modern Oscar history.  People love to knock the battery off that shoulder … especially the media.

Of course, the entire notion of The Frontrunner is an illusion (delusion?) of the media.  We need a story, so building a movie up to knock it down means more fun copy for us … yay!

Lord of the Rings: Return of The King, Titanic, American Beauty, Schindler’s List, and Forrest Gump are the only start-to-finish frontrunners to survive in the last 20 years.

By the time the season is rolling along with enough steam for the media to start obsessing, at least half the movies that are going to be in play are already in play, launching at Cannes, Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.  In many cases, the films are already in theaters by mid-October.

Atonement was this year’s early anointed with Charlie Wilson’s War and Sweeney Todd in the back pocket of expectation.   But the smarty-pants comedy, Juno, and the pitch black show pony, There Will Be Blood, pushed ahead of all three.  No Country For Old Men was the Cynthia Swartz Lovechild of the season.  Michael Clayton was the studio little engine that could … and has.  And Atonement made it through … but just by the hair of its chinny-chin-chin, without nods in more of the expected other major categories.

Meanwhile, Sweeney Todd did all it could to stay away from frontrunnerisms … yet still fell to overeager expectations and a tough set of parameters to overcome in a season with two other films that had lots o’ blood.

Charlie Wilson’s War got slaughtered as soon as it peeked out of the foxhole with critics’ screenings … too much so.  The film has quietly done more than $60 million, outgrossing all but Juno amongst the BP nominees.   The film is no masterpiece, but it also had no chance to settle in and to be seriously considered past the hysteria of the moment.

This brings us to …

Don’t Start Late … Unless You Have The Nuts

The Nuts.  A poker term meaning “the unbeatable hand.”  In the Oscar universe, this speaks not only to the movie itself, but the talent connected to that movie.

It’s real simple.  You can get into the game late if you have Steven Spielberg or current Clint Eastwood at the helm or if you have a highly anticipated commercial film that is also expected to be awards bait.

There are two major issues at play here.  First, people have to see your film.  And while critics awards and nominations (including the Golden Globes) are mostly irrelevant on their face (see Critics rule below), they do narrow the field of movies for Academy voters who will nominated a couple of weeks after everyone else has had their say.  Even if “they” want to watch your film, if you aren’t in play with the critics, there is a good chance that “they” will prioritize movies that are … maybe not seeing your film until after its too late.

The second issue is Perceived Value vs Real Value.  The Real Value is how people will feel about a movie next year and onward.  The Perceived Value is how people think of the film as they mark their ballots in the month of December or the first week of January.

Some films really, really need to settle into people’s psyches.  Some films are really, really going to fall out of favor if anyone thinks about them too much.

A big part of being an Oscar nominee is your film coming of age at the right time.  You can cause a sensation, but lose the head of steam before the voting begins.  Conversely, you can hit your stride days or weeks too late to get where you are hoping to go.

The genius of the Weinstein strategy of the 90s was to let the film get just far enough out of the gate to get nominated and then to whip it to the finish (especially at the box office) after nominations.  Chicago did this from the frontrunner slot … and almost got overtaken by The Pianist.  Shakespeare in Love did it from the late slot … and overcame the seven month frontrunner, Saving Private Ryan.

Some films are never going to gross enough at the box office to be seen as financial hits, and thus, are discounted by Academy voters.  Some films are going to gross too much.

If a movie like Juno, giving it all due credit, opened in the summer and grossed over $100 million, it would have no chance at anything more than a screenwriting and an acting nomination, at best.  It’s just the nature of the beast.  A film like Little Miss Sunshine, grossing $50 million and change at the end of the summer and through the fall, remains an underdog.  But $100 million movie is a commercial hit … and therefore is exponentially less likely to be Oscar nominated.

This brings us to …

Being The Underdog Requires Illusion

While Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen were playing the Underdog card, Dreamgirls was being slammed over and over for overhype … even though the “underdogs” were spending and marketing as aggressively and really more aggressively than the big movie musical.

Letters From Iwo Jima was, really, an underdog, in Japanese, opening late, with only one actor that was remotely recognizable to Academy voters.  But it was an Eastwood … and a vastly superior Eastwood to the one that was an early frontrunner.  So it wasn’t really an underdog at all.

Babel was an underdog … except that it had a large budget, starred international superstar  Brad Pitt, Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, and was touted as an Oscar movie for seven months.

And The Departed, the eventual winner, was perceived as an underdog … even with so many major movie stars that no one could quite figure out who to nominate, over $130 million at the box office, and a lock for Best Director in Marty Scorsese.

Of course, all the other titles were kinda underdogs in other ways.  Little Miss Sunshine was the Indie Spirit movie … kiss of Oscar death (as it likely will be for Juno this year).   Letters From Iwo Jima was seen by six people, was (still) in Japanese, and did not play as gloriously the first time through on DVD as it did on a screen.  Babel was messy and for many, irritating, and won the Golden Globe, which has turned into its own kiss of death lately.  (This year is just like last year, with the Best Drama film being Oscar nom’ed but not a winner while Best Comedy/Musical went without a nom.  Of course, we can’t blame the lack of a nomination on the Globes, as they announce winners after Oscar noms close.  But the coincidence is interesting, no?)  And The Queen was just, in the end, too small and too Brit to win.

Every Scheme Works … Every Scheme Fails

Any of the strategies that have worked recently could have failed.  Any of the strategies that have failed lately could have worked.  A Best Picture nomination is like being in the NFL Pro Bowl.  About 50 men are so honored each year, from a field of 1600 pro players who were picked from an annual field of about 57,000 college (about 150 who make the league each year) who were picked from a field of 1,000,000 high school players.  It is, win or lose, a remarkable feat.

As films get closer to thinking they have a shot, perspective bends.  And it is true, you do need the right strategy in the face of the circumstances you face.  But no one knows exactly how to measure every element … just as so many college stars drafted by the NFL don’t make it and undrafted free agents often do … just as a top athlete can see their career end in a second with an awkward hit that may not have even happened in an important moment in the game … just as an unsung back-up like Tom Brady suddenly emerges as a top quarterback in his first year after laying behind a Pro Bowler who never won a Super Bowl.

It is the most basic thing that the public (and often, the media) forgets when looking at the idea of handicapping the Oscar race … things change.

No one, not even the people paid to manipulate the future of these films, controls how things go.  We all – insiders and out – tend to want to believe otherwise and want others to believe otherwise because we want to maintain the illusion that there is some logic to the parade.  And there is.  If you think it might rain and you bring an umbrella, you could be inconvenienced all day walking around with an umbrella or you might be the smart person who stays dry.  If a girder is falling towards you as you walk under a building, you should get out of the way.  And knowing the territory for your particular film is absolutely a key factor in how a season goes.  But you just don’t know.  You don’t know if the critics will line up.  You don’t know whether you will be accused of overhype.  You don’t know whether your box office will be surprisingly good … or bad.

And then there are situations that are controlled, but that no one outside of the inner circle realizes are out of control … like when your talent is available to promote the film and/or themselves.  How much different would a movie like Sweeney Todd look to awards voters if Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter were out kissing babies instead of having them (well, at least one of them)?  If Keira Knightley had a few weeks to spend in L.A. in November, would the fate of Atonement have changed?  Could George Clooney being the most photographed and quoted star at the Nominees Luncheon lead to an upset of Daniel Day-Lewis?

Speaking of Mr. Day-Lewis …

Critics Only Matter When Unanimous

Critics can’t really kill an Oscar movie … or make an Oscar movie … unless they are united in a clear, loud voice (even if that clear, loud voice is not a vast majority, just the right loudmouths).

This year, we saw what we haven’t seen since 2002 … critics muscling a film into the Best Picture race.

Atonement follows a long line, however of films like Master & Commander, Ray, Munich and BP winner Crash, that got in despite mixed reviews and very little support from the critics groups.

It is an honorable thing when the critics line up with guns a-blazin’ and get a movie like There Would Be Blood that might otherwise be a “crafts only” nomineee deep into the race even as No Country For Old Men remains, when you look at the year, The Critics’ Choice.

Five More Rules The Next Time …

Best Actor, Best Actress Chart

Thursday, January 31st, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood Hard to slow a roll this intense
George Clooney – Michael Clayton It’s there for him to challenge… but he doesn’t seem anxious to do so
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd He coulda won it… but the ship took him down
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Serious work, finally being recognized.
Tommy Lee Jones – In The Valley Of Elah A wonderful performance… but did he get it for this film because it was first in alphabetical order, ahead of No Country?

BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Julie Christie – Away From Her Looking unstoppable
Ellen Page – Juno
The one who could shock
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose Not a member of the family yet
Laura Linney – The Savages So deserving…
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age A reputation nod

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
Comment
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men Not only great, but a consistent winner
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild The sentimental pick… but the role may be too small
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton The most undervalued epic work of the year
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War Should have had 3 nods this year
Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James Welcome to the club, kid.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
Comment
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There The great performance of the year… but are they watching that DVD?
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton If Clayton muscled up…
Ruby Dee – American Gangster Lifetime achievement longshot
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone A sweetheart… but mostly off shooting the next film, which makes it hard for a new face to run
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement Lovely, smart, talented kid… ould well be back next year for Lovely Bones

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, January 31st, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Picture – Studio
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Just keeps winning…
Michael Clayton
Can Warners move the dial on the most agreeable Best Picture choice
Juno
No longer an underdog movie… should be thrilled to have made it this far
There Will Be Blood
The milkshake is flowing somewhere else
Atonement
Too much negative energy in this round

BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
Comment
The Coen Bros
No Country For Old Men
Looking locked
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
More likely to match BP when the BP is directed by someone serious
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
If he couldn’t upset at DGA…
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Great first effort… he’ll be back
Jason Reitman
Juno
Remarkable start… destined to top out at Blake Edwards?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
Michael Clayton
Tony Gilroy
Will the vet overcome the new glib on the block?
Juno
Diablo Cody
Has Hollywood OD’ed on the new It girl?
The Savages
Tamara Jenkins
Brilliant. Unlikely to win.
Lars & The Real Girl
Nancy Oliver
Complex, challenging… and only the writers really get it in this group
Ratatouille
Brad Bird
Bird is a Lifetime Achievement Award waiting to happen after just 3 films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Joel & Ethan Coen
Hard to beat
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
I’ve got a competition in me… catch phrases could make it close
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
A previous winner… but it’s not a words movie
Atonement
Christopher Hampton
Fading title
Away From Her
Sarah Polley
No real chance here. Enjoy the nod.

24 Days To Go

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Somehow, this may be the first Oscar season in memory without The Great Settling.

It’s not really clear whether it’s because of the films themselves or because of the WGA strike or the fact that the latest entry into the race – in Hollywood showings, not theatrical release date – was There Will Be Blood, first shown widely to critics the first week of November.

The field this year was narrower earlier.  Speculation after movies had been shown never really went deeper than 10 films at a time.  And by the time that the pre-Oscar nomination season ended on December 13, there were really seven or eight films in play.

The settling happened before Oscar ballots were sent out… and it wasn’t great and  Academy members weren’t really party to it.

As it’s worked out, the constituencies have been served.

The Lady’s Choice is Atonement.

The Hip & Light Crowd luvs Juno.

Old School Hollywood is there for Michael Clayton.

Quality Lovers Who Like An Edge, But Not too Much Edge are there for No Country For Old Men.

The Manly Lovers Of Big Show Filmmaking adore There Will Be Blood.

Interestingly, this list, in alphabetical order, gets more masculine in taste as it moves from A to T.  And is it a coincidence that the movie right in the middle is Michael Clayton, the one pure consensus film on the list?

The core principle of Academy voting is, “I don’t want to waste my vote.”  And this becomes even more significant in the final voting than in the nomination voting.

Also, the hard question of, “Do we want this film to represent the Academy forever and ever?” becomes more pronounced.

There is a reason why only five comedies have won Best Picture in the 79 years of Oscar.  And there are bigger reasons for each of those… Shakespeare In Love was about show biz and had a Brit acccent… Annie Hall was a Woody Allen career moment… Tom Jones was fronting the British Invasion… You Can’t Take It With You was Capra, Kaufman & Hart… It Happened One Night was Capra, Gable, Colbert and famously changed American industry by killing the undershirt for a while).

It’s also been 20 years since a film grossing less than $50 million domestic won the Oscar.  And that is before the win.  Going back 30 years, there is no film with a gross under $40 million at the winner’s gate.

Both of these stats scream No Country For Old Men will win.

Michael Clayton added $2.2 million this last weekend, talking its total to almost $42 million, but $50 million is probably out of reach.

Of course, stats aren’t everything.  Every time someone reaches for a stat that proves a point, fate seems to shoot it down.

On the other hand, there is that editing stat… which again points to No Country For Old Men.

But you know what the most powerful tool in getting No Country into the winner’s circle is?  Repeating over and over that it is going to win.

Academy voters, like all voters, in all elections from elementary school to President of the United States, want to vote for the winner.  So if the inevitability of No Country is said enough, it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

And that is why you see round-the-clock television ads for There Will Be Blood, demanding that we pay attention and take it seriously.  They think they have a chance to win, so they are going to keep telling you that they have a chance to win.

The trouble is, if every Academy voter who really wants to vote for TWBB does so, it still will likely come up a bit short.  It is not, in the end, a consensus movie.  This does not make its place in history any more suspect.  It is the nature of the awards beast, not the love of movies.  (Though I must laugh at those who claimed that PTA didn’t care about awards and was not chasing them earlier in the season… hee hee.  Just like Clint doesn’t care.)

It’s an odd line to walk, between letting them know you want it and not begging for it. As a result, year after year, the geniuses of Phase One seem to wilt in Phase Two, much more likely to allow the winds to carry them to their fates.

And maybe that is better for everyone…

34 Days To Go And The Noms Are… As Expected

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008

So …

Few real surprises.  A couple pleasant.  A couple less so.

The score from There Will Be Blood was disqualified at the last minute … so that is a shame.  Rather brilliant work.

Laura Linney ran well under the radar in critics’ world … and still got in.

Tommy Lee Jones got a nod, not for his bigger financial success, but for In The Valley Of Elah, which may now get a longer, deserved look from the world on DVD.

Jason Reitman in a shocker got a directing nod for Juno, leaving candidates like Sidney Lumet and DGA nominee Sean Penn by the curb.

PGA missed one, with Diving Bell falling to Atonement, which had lots of crafts support, screenplay, and only one acting nod.

Lots of people will feel good about Sarah Polley getting a screenplay nod for Away From Her, as WGA misses on 3 of 10.

Enchanted gets three of the five song nominations as Eddie Vedder gets a shot to the groin.

And Cate Blanchett proves her Oscar lovedness by grabbing a nod for a dead movie ahead of Jolie’s dead movie and Ms Knightley’s clingy green dress and clipped accent.

Ahem …

Cynthia Swartz’s favorite stat – which was part of the Crash comeback – is that winning Best Picture without at least an editing nod is very rare … which points to No Country For Old Men or There Will Be Blood, the only two Best Pictures to get editing nods this year.

Potential upsets?  Ellen Page, unending quiet veteran Julie Christie and unknown quantity Marion Cotillard?  Janusz Kaminski for Cinematography while Deakins splits his vote?  George Clooney for Best Actor?  No End In Sight beating the traditional winner for doc, the highest grosser, Sicko?

Will Michael Giacchino finally get his due for the score for Ratatouille with a field not including No Country or Blood?

Can Norbit win an Oscar after, perhaps, losing one for Eddie Murphy?

Can Persepolis upend The Rat?

Will Best Supporting Actor be the early bellweather of the evening … a Bardem upset by Wilkinson or Holbrook meaning something … or will a Javier indicate business as usual and an No Country win?

I wish I had more to say … but the truth is, the noms went pretty much according to plan.  Gurus o’ Gold was 35 of 40 in the Top 8 categories, so not too many real shockers and none of the shockers have a chance to win, really.

And so the finals begin.  The WGA strike continues, though few on the inside think that we will still be mid-strike when the Oscars are given out in a month and 3 days.  Now the Academy members will surely watch all five films and more … angles will be taken … arguments will be made … and in the end, people will be pretty happy with the five films standing up for them in the end.

Not so bad.

(My first post-nom charts will be up tomorrow.)

Best Screenplay Chart

Thursday, January 10th, 2008
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
GG
Comment
Michael Clayton
Tony Gilroy
His reward if MC wins Best Picture and PTA wins for directing.
Juno
Diablo Cody
*
Front-ran long enough to become a small problem
The Savages
Tamara Jenkins
The writers will make sure she gets what she deserves
Lars & The Real Girl
Nancy Oliver
Truly original, truly special.
Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
Kelly Masterson
Just solid, solid, solid.
In The Valley Of Elah
Not only a good script, but Haggis has been an iron man on the picket lines
American Gangster
Knocked Up
I’m Not There
Margot At The Wedding

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Writer(s) – Film
GG
Comment
No Country For Old Men
Joel & Ethan Coen
*
Friendo
Into The Wild
Sean Penn
Oozes the passion
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
*
Previous winner, complex adaptation
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
He drinks Christopher Hampton’s milkshake… he drinks it all up.
Atonement
Christopher Hampton

*
On the edge, but closer than most
Aaron Sorkin
Charlie Wilson’s War
*
The comeback kid nomination for a flawed, but smart entertainment?
The Kite Runner
Rescue Dawn
A Mighty Heart
3:10 To Yuma


Best Actress Chart

Thursday, January 10th, 2008
BEST ACTRESS
Actress – Film
GG
SAG
Comment
Ellen Page – Juno
M/C
A
The accessible, loveable rising star, modest, smart and ready to be a much bigger star
Julie Christie – Away From Her
D
A
Away From The Spotlight
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
M/C
A
Perhaps the defining moment of this campaign – in support of easily the most impressive performance this year – was Sam Rubin not knowing by sight that Marion wasn’t Emily Deschanel on the Critics’ Choice red carpet. Game over.
Keira Knightley – Atonement
D
May not even get the nod… but probably
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
D
A
Suddenly looking locked in for a nomination, votes coming in from people who have no idea who anyone else by Ms Christie is
Laura Linney – The Savages Searchlight made a different choice.
Helena Bonham Carter – Sweeney Todd
M/C
Up or down with the film
Nikki Blonsky – Hairspray
M/C
E
Her effervescence at Critics’ Choice was likely too late
Amy Adams – Enchanted
M/C
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
D
A
Jodie Foster – The Brave One
D

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress – Film
GG SAG
Comment
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
*
SA
Pretty…
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
*
SA
… much…
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
*
SA
… every…
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
*
… one’s…
Catherine Keener – Into The Wild
SA/E
…list.
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
SA/E
Vanessa Redgrave – Atonement
*
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot At The Wedding
Marisa Tomei – Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead

Best Actor Chart

Thursday, January 10th, 2008
BEST ACTOR
Actor – Film
GG SAG
Comment
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
D
A
Hollywood’s heartthrob little engines a shocker.
Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
D
A
Scenery chewing wears thin over time.
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd C/M Quickly becoming this season’s Eddie Murphy of last year… deserving, but dragged down and out by elusiveness and the wrong trajectory.
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
D
A
Stepping up.
Ryan Gosling – Lars C/M
A
The dark horse of the season.
Josh Brolin – No Country For Old Men
E
It’s gotten quiet in BrolinVille, but still could happen.
James McAvoy – Atonement
D
The movie’s shakiness and lack of industry familiarity makes it a hard get
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages C/M The great (soon to be) overlooked performance of the season.
Emile Hirsch – Into The Wild
A/E
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country For Old Men
SA/E
Denzel Washington – American Gangster
D
E
Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson’s War C/M
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
John C Reilly – Walk Hard
C/M

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Actor – Film
GG SAG
Comment
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
*
SA/E
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
*
SA
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
*
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild
SA/E
Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James
*
SA
John Travolta – Hairspray
*
E
Morgan Freeman – The Bucket List
Phillip Bosco – The Savages
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Ethan Hawke – Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
Paul Dano – There Will Be Blood

Best Director

Thursday, January 10th, 2008
BEST DIRECTOR
Director – Film
DGA GG
Comment
The Best Picture Runners
The Coen Bros – No Country For Old Men
*
*
Yes.
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
*
A tour d’ force behind that camera
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
*
A complete, powerful, classic movie with a real sense of directorial style
Sidney Lumet – Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead The lion in winter appeals to Oscar voters
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
*
*
The masterpiece art project of the year
Sean Penn – Into The Wild
*
Great work… his best… could easily be there… the question is whether the film plays too young for Oscar voters
And…
Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd
*
We’ve seen work this good from him… and for whatever reason, he is never rewarded… set to be the Scorsese of 2019
Joe Wright – Atonement
*
They don’t seem to want to embrace him
Jason Reitman – Juno Makes the movie work, but in a year of mastery, just solid work… and he has many years to be honored
Ridley Scott – American Gangster
*
Masterful work… but the script got developed away from being truly great



Best Picture Chart

Thursday, January 10th, 2008
BEST PICTURE
Release
Date
Picture
Studio
Globe
Nom
Comment
Nov 9
No Country For Old Men
Mira
D
Now aiming on the win
Oct 5
Michael Clayton
WB
D
DGA crosses the “t,” dots the “i”
Dec 5
Juno
FoxS
M/C
The most impressive financial success at just the right moment
The Candidates For The Last 2 Slots
Dec 7
Atonement
Focus
D
Under attack, but The Ladies Choice
Dec 26
There Will Be Blood
ParVan
D
Hard core for critics, directors… enough for Academy nod?
Sept 21
Into The Wild
ParVan
DGA reminds us of the audience that remembers how much they loved the film
Nov 30
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Mir
F
If there be too much blood for voters, the artsy, quality choice
Dec 21
Sweeney Todd
DW
M/C
Is it the second bloody film or the third? Selling to teens might have took it off the art track.
And Still Spinning The Wheels…
Nov 2
American Gangster
U
D
Nov 28
The Savages
FoxS
Sept 14
Eastern Promises
Focus
D
Oct 26
Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
Think
Dec 21
Charlie Wilson’s War
U
M/C
July 20
Hairspray
NL
M/C
On A Prayer
Sept 7
3:10 To Yuma
Lions
Dec 14
The Kite Runner
ParVan
F
Dec 25
The Great Debaters
TWC
D
Oct 12
Lars & The Real Girl
MGM/
Kim
Sept 14
Across The Universe
Sony
M/C

7 Weeks To Go Mutually Assured Disinterest

Thursday, January 10th, 2008

The Golden Globes are dead… long die The Golden Globes.

The Wheel O’ Strategy is spinning hard at the studios these days.  A film like Hairspray, which ended up joining now-presumptive Best Picture nominees There Will Be Blood and Juno as the only multiple Critics’ Choice Award winners, is suddenly thrilled about being a nominee at the other on-air awards show this month, The SAGs.

But both the Globes Press Conference (Best Musical/Comedy/Travolta/Blonsky) and SAG arrive after Oscar nominations close.  No sale!

DGA, as usual, acts as a powerfully consistent precursor as of late, but not much of an influencer.  But you know that Team Atonement and Team Sweeney Todd are not feeling good about being left on the side of the road by the Guild.

Juno’s strategy going in was exactly not the strategy of Little Miss Sunshine… and it is working perfectly.  The film was a late entry, but it is also a smash hit at the box office (over $55 million as of this writing), has a rising star in Ellen Page, and it leaves voters no time to start getting comedy buyer’s remorse, just time to vote their heart after – as Mina said – all this death.

There Will Be Blood has been raised up by critics and now the DGA… and it has smartly avoided any kind of box office challenge, still under $2.5 million with no intention of going for much more, still on 51 screens.  Brokeback Mountain is the template for this release strategy… but at the same 14 days, Brokeback had more than double the box office of Blood.

Atonement has also tried the Brokeback road… and after 33 days, it isn’t much off of Brokeback’s pace. But it has been on more screens and like Brokeback, the strategy depends on a nomination.  Brokeback did about half of its business after January 22, this year’s nomination announcement date.  If Atonement doesn’t get the BP nod, like Dreamgirls last year, it will suffer by using this strategy.   (Of course, Dreamgirls “suffered” to over $100 million, more than the “winning” Brokeback.)  So far, Atonement is on pace with Pride & Prejudice… which is not bad… just not the target.

No Country For Old Men, as everyone has noticed, is working on all the strategic cylinders.  It has strong box office, critical acclaim, and profile.

It’s ironic, amidst all this madness, is that it is one of the best years for The Movies in a while.  Yet the conflicts of the average week seem to all remain in place.  If There Will Be Blood makes it to Best Picture, there is no doubt that it will owe the critics… and if not, confirmation that critics don’t drive the awards season.  If Juno gets a BP nod, it will seem, along with Little Miss Sunshine, to mark a group in the Academy that is younger and more susceptible to heart-warming comedy… if not, it would seem to confirm the age gap assumption.  How dark will the Academy go?  One picture, two pictures, three pictures, four?

But in terms of all these awards shows?  The loss of them all just doesn’t move the dial in terms of Oscar.  The media is more excited about them than anyone else.  And hungry for stories, especially in February, we miss them more than anyone else.

The strategies that will work are the strategies that were set months ago and… worked!  Movies that lean on Oscar and don’t get there, suffer.  But in the end, it is the movie, the movie, and the movie.  Was Sweeney Todd too late?  Was Michael Clayton too early?  Did Into The Wild miss the political wave of this election cycle by launching right before it?  Could Lars & The Real Girl have waited for December, gone limited, and done better with awards?  Was there ever a real opportunity for The Assassination of Jesse James or Zodiac… or would they have simply fallen pretty to Children Of Men disease?

Everyone is looking for answers.  Perhaps the silliest “answer” I’ve heard was comparing Atonement to Hilary Clinton.  There has not been a clear front runner ever in this season and if there was one, it was the Media’s… as usual.  (Few things are more irritating or harder to stop than the Media deciding to accuse movies of being cocky or selling too hard.  It is like the whores complaining about the john expecting sex.)  Moreover… nothing changed for Atonement.  The possible analogy is Barack Obama, as a popular candidate that people don’t really know until they are about to vote is much more what happens in these awards races.  But will he win or lose?  And when a film falls out, it is more like Howard Dean… the candidate remaining the same, but one silly event being dramatically blown out of proportion.

Like the Globes…