Posts Tagged ‘The Town’

Weekend Box Office Report – October 17

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

Jack’use!

Jackass 3D was better than all right with an estimated $49.3 million that easily ranked it at the top of the weekend movie going charts. Another freshman, the seasoned action-comedy Red, ranked second with $21.9 million. The session’s third national debut in medium-wide release was the inspirational N Secure with an OK $133,000 bow.

Among niche and regional bows the polemical documentary I Want Your Money failed to bring out the vote with a $236,000 tally from 537 screens. Telegu-language Brindaavanam rang up an impressive $10,320 average from 20 venues while Bollywood entry Aakrosh was a washout with a $46,400 gross from 24 screens.

Among the week’s exclusive newbies the clear favorite was Hereafter with a $37,380 per screen from six early peeks. There were also impressive openings for the three-hour plus portrait of a terrorist Carlos of $33,700 from single dates in Manhattan and Montreal and a sturdy $101,000 gross for the ripped from the headlines Conviction at 11 cells.

Overall weekend box office revenues topped $130 million for a sizeable 42% boost from seven days back. However, it fell 4% below last year’s tally and the 2010 box office has shrunk to just 2% better than the prior year’s gross for the same period.

Industry trackers had pegged the stereoscopic version of Jackass at roughly $30 million prior to its opening. But they obviously were deaf to bygone wag Henry Mencken’s observation that “no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” The recently under-served young male audience were eager to don Polaroid glasses and see the aging stars of the reality skein making fools of themselves and others up close and personal.

Pundits also undervalued Red with early estimates in a $15 million to $18 million range. The single joke premise of over the hill spies conscripted back into service (more intentionally mawkish than The Expendables) skewed older but obviously had some appeal for a younger crowd in search of something marginally less mind numbing that required optical gimmicks.

The glacial expansion of Waiting for “Superman” continued to display stamina but it’s clear that Never Let Me Go has peaked and that the rapid expansion of Nowhere Boy left the early years of John Lennon stranded outside the Cavern Club. Stone was experiencing a better than expected hold as it increased its exposure from six to 41 venues.

The frame’s two award contenders – Hereafter and Conviction – constructed solid foundations for their platform bids. Still the early signs suggest a better than anticipated commercial run for the former with the latter yarn requiring a lot of TLC to reach a wider audience.

Among holdovers the second lap for Secretariat showed signs that audiences were discovering the heartfelt saga and The Social Network continues to be propped up by award buzz rather than Facebook fascination.

__________________________________________________

Weekend Estimates – October 15-17, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Jackass 3D Par 49.3 (16,010) New 3081 49.3
Red Summit 21.9 (6,740) New 3255 21.8
The Social Network Sony 10.8 (3,910) -30% 2771 63
Secretariat BV 9.4 (3,070) -26% 3072 27.4
Life As We Know It WB 9.2 (2,910) -37% 3150 28.8
Legend of the Guardians WB 4.2 (1,670) -39% 2502 46
The Town WB 4.0 (1,700) -37% 2368 80.6
My Soul to Take Uni/Alliance 3.1 (1,240) -54% 2529 11.9
Easy A Sony 2.6 (1,140) -39% 2314 52.3
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps Fox 2.3 (1,110) -50% 2045 47.8
N Secure FreeStyle 1.3 (2,730) New 486 1.3
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 1.3 (1,660) -38% 757 4
You Again BV 1.2 (750) -53% 1588 22.7
Case 39 Par Vantage 1.2 (840) -56% 1406 11.9
Devil Uni 1.0 (1,100) -46% 891 31.6
Let Me In Overture .83 (690) -66% 1211 11.1
Alpha and Omega Lions Gate .81 (840) -46% 969 22.6
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage .74 (4,060) 17% 182 2.5
Toy Story 3 BV .52 (1,480) -6% 350 412.8
Inception WB .35 (1,180) -29% 297 289.7
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance .34 (780) -73% 438 59.7
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $125.70
% Change (Last Year) -4%
% Change (Last Week) 42%
Also debuting/expanding
Nowhere Boy Weinstein Co. .33 (1,550) 554% 215 0.41
Never Let Me Go Searchlight .32 (1,390) -7% 232 1.65
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger Sony Classics .27 (2,440) 1% 112 1.26
I Want Your Money FreeStyle .24 (440) 537 0.24
Stone Overture .23 (5,780) 199% 41 0.34
Hereafter WB .22 (37,380) 6 0.22
Brindaavanam Blue Sky .21 (10,320) 20 0.21
Buried Lions Gate .13 (1,270) -41% 103 0.76
Conviction Fox Searchlight .10 (9,200) 11 0.1
Aakrosh Eros 46,400 (1,930) 24 0.05
Carlos IFC 33,700 (16,850) 1 0.03
Knockout Eros 18,100 (700) 26 0.02
A Better Tomorrow CJ Entertainment 5,800 (5,800) 1 0.01
Down Terrace Magnolia 2,900 (1,450) 2 0.01
Samson and Delilah Ipix 2,300 (1,150) 2 0.01

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – October 14, 2010

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (24) 1380.1 16.40%
Fox (16) 1284.6 15.30%
Paramount (14) 1242.3 14.80%
Buena Vista (15) 1129.6 13.40%
Sony (23) 1111.7 13.20%
Universal (17) 765.4 9.10%
Summit (9) 425.1 5.10%
Lionsgate (12) 410.1 4.90%
Overture (7) 78.2 0.90%
Fox Searchlight (5) 72.1 0.90%
Focus (7) 71.4 0.90%
Weinstein Co. (7) 61.1 0.70%
Sony Classics (20) 52.9 0.60%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Other * (266) 222.3 2.60%
8407.3 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Weekend Estimates – October 17

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

Jackass 3D|49.3|New| 49.3
Red|21.9|New |21.9
The Social Network|10.8|-30%|63
Secretariat|9.4|-26%|27.4
Life As We Know It|9.2|-37%|28.8
Legend of the Guardians|4.2|-39%|46
The Town|4.0|-37%|80.6
My Soul to Take|3.1|-54%|11.9
Easy A|2.6|-39%| 52.3
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|2.3|-50%|47.8

Friday Estimates – October 16

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

Jackass 3D|20.4|3081|New|20.4
Red|8 |3255|New|8
The Social Network|3.3|2868|-31%|55.4
Life As We Know It|3|3150|-42%|22.7
Secretariat|2.9|3072|-29%|20.9
The Town|1.2|2368|-34%|77.7
Legend of the Guardians|1|2502|-42%|42.8
My Soul to Take|1|2529|-63%|9.7
Easy A|0.8|2314|-38%|50.5
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|0.7|2045|-49%|46.3
Also Debuting
N Secure|0.42|486||0.42
I Want Your Money|83,400|537||83,400
Brindaavanam|59,300|20||59,300
Hereafter|57,900|6||57,900
Conviction|29,100|11||29,100
Aakrosh|12,300|24||12,300
Carlos|6,900|1||6,900
Knockout|4,800|6||4,800
Vision|3,900|2||3,900
A Better Tomorrow|1,900|1||1,900
||||
*in millions|||

Gurus o’ Gold – A Post Toronto Look At The Field

Monday, October 11th, 2010






Updated on 10/11/10, 3p… adding Guru #15, Emanuel Levy and a few adjustments to others…

Weekend Box Office Report – October 10

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

Nobody Nose Anything

The Social Network surprised pundits with a better than expected hold and won the weekend movie going chase with an estimated $15.3 million. Three national debs were on its tail with lackluster returns. The rom-com Life As We Know It faltered in the clutch with $14.6 million while the much ballyhooed turf saga Secretariat posted $12.4 million, and there was a lack of stereoscopic shock for My Soul to Take with $6.9 million.

There was also a lack of oomph for the comic oddity It’s Kind of a Funny Story with $2 million tally-woo from 742 engagements.

In the niches Telegu-language Khaleja had a buoyant bow of $343,000 from 24 screens and OK returns of $72,700 for French thriller L’Immortel in Quebec. There were also a raft of exclusive bows with Darwinian winners that included the young John Lennon of Nowhere Boy grossing $51,300 at four venues, the squeezed of non-fiction Inside Job with $37,500 at two interviews and psychological thriller Stone with $71,400 from six couches.

Overall business once again took a dip with 2010 box office now less than 2% ahead of last year’s pace and industry mavens sweating out a quick reversal of fortune.

Tracking reports had pegged the uplifting tale of racing Triple Crowner Secretariat as the weekend’s odds-on favorite with estimates in the range of $16 million to $18 million. But its appeal to women and an older demo that remembered the four-legged wonder of the early 1970s failed to bring ‘em out in its maiden performance despite a considerable marketing push.

Life As We Know It was expected to be about a length behind Secretariat but pulled ahead right from the opening gate. It opened ahead of the pack on Friday with a $5.2 million bow but quickly lost ground to The Social Network as the weekend advanced.

And My Soul to Take fell smack in the middle of estimates in the $6 million to $8 million range. All three of the newbies skewed toward distaff viewers and there’s little question the marketplace is in dire need of something for the boys.

Weekend revenues pushed to roughly $92 million that represented a 4% dip from seven days back. It was a considerably steeped 16% fall from 2009 when the launch of Couples Retreat topped the charts on a $34.3 million first salvo.

On the expansion track, the “what’s wrong with our education” doc Waiting for “Superman” is holding up well and Woody Allen’s You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger continues to draw in aficionados. But the dour Never Let Me Go appears to have peaked early in the awards season. Among the new entries the highly enjoyable Tamara Drewe proved to be the surprise commercial disappointment with a dull $4,300 engagement average from four initial exposures.

__________________________________________________

Weekend Estimates – October 1-3, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
The Social Network Sony 15.3 (5,520) -32% 2771 45.9
Life As We Know It WB 14.6 (4,630) New 3150 14.6
Secretariat BV 12.4 (4,050) New 3072 12.4
My Soul to Take Uni/Alliance 6.9 (2,670) New 2572 6.9
Legend of the Guardians WB 6.8 (2,100) -38% 3225 39.2
The Town WB 6.3 (2,310) -36% 2720 73.7
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps Fox 4.5 (1,600) -55% 2829 43.6
Easy A Sony 4.1 (1,450) -39% 2847 48.1
Case 39 Par Vantage 2.6 (1,160) -55% 2212 9.5
You Again BV 2.4 (1,030) -58% 2332 20.7
Let Me In Overture 2.4 (1,160) -54% 2042 9.1
It’s Kind of a Funny Story Focus 2.0 (2,670) New 742 2
Devil Uni 1.7 (1,210) -51% 1442 30
Alpha and Omega Lionsgate 1.4 (890) -51% 1616 21
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 1.2 (1,210) -56% 1012 58.8
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage .63 (6,120) 54% 103 1.4
Toy Story 3 BV .55 (1,400) 140% 393 412
Inception WB .52 (1,290) -43% 403 289.2
Takers Sony .39 (950) -50% 412 56.8
Catfish Uni/Alliance .37 (2,590) -37% 143 2.2
Khaleja Ficus .34 (14,290) 24 0.39
Never Let Me Go Searchlight .33 (1,990) 77% 167 1.1
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $86.30
% Change (Last Year) -16%
% Change (Last Week) -4%
Also debuting/expanding
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger Sony Classics .25 (3,380) 15% 73 0.84
Buried Lionsgate .21 (2,300) 118% 92 0.5
L’Immortel Seville 72,700 (3,030) 24 0.07
Stone Overture 71,400 (11,900) 6 0.07
Nowhere Boy Weinstein Co. 51,300 (12,820) 4 0.05
Inside Job Sony Classics 37,500 (18,750) 2 0.04
Route 132 Alliance 37,300 (1,430) 26 0.06
I Spit on Your Grave Anchor Bay 30,800 (2,570) 12 0.03
Tamara Drewe Sony Classics 17,200 (4,300) 4 0.02
Ghetto Physics IDP 10,700 (1,190) 9 0.01
Budrus Balcony 8,400 (8,400) 1 0.01
It’s a Wonderful Afterlife UTV 5,500 (770) 20 0.01
As Good as Dead First Look 1,850 (1,850) 1 0.01

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – October 7, 2010

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (23) 1340.5 16.20%
Fox (16) 1277.7 15.40%
Paramount (14) 1237.4 15.00%
Buena Vista (14) 1107.4 13.40%
Sony (23) 1081.3 13.10%
Universal (16) 753.6 9.10%
Summit (9) 425.1 5.10%
Lionsgate (12) 407.1 4.90%
Overture (6) 74.5 0.90%
Fox Searchlight (5) 71.5 0.90%
Focus (6) 68.4 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (6) 60.9 0.70%
Sony Classics (19) 52.3 0.60%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Other * (260) 217.3 2.60%
8275.4 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Global Grossers: January 1 – October 7, 2010

Title * Distributor Gross
Avatar * Fox 1,948,069,404
Toy Story 3 BV 1,047,492,510
Alice in Wonderland BV 1,024,537,295
Twilight: Eclipse Summit 691,330,829
Inception WB 803,799,128
Shrek Forever After Par 732,163,289
Iron Man 2 Par 622,718,660
How to Train Your Dragon Par 494,288,254
Clash of the Titans WB 489,778,913
Sherlock Holmes * WB 367,796,599
Despicable Me Uni 367,194,481
The Karate Kid Sony 357,206,535
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time BV 335,020,929
Robin Hood Uni 311,610,747
The Last Airbender Par 310,375,125
Shutter Island Par 301,977,955
Sex and the City 2 WB 301,158,934
Salt Sony 287,626,258
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox 264,341,533
Grown Ups Sony 261,324,243
The Expendables Lionsgate 257,529,373
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 244,795,280
Knight and Day Fox 229,686,302
Percy Jackson & the Olympians Fox 226,497,209
Valentine’s Day WB 217,596,116
* does not include 2009 box office

Weekend Estimates – October 10

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

The Social Network|15.3|-32%| 45.9
Life As We Know It|14.6|New |14.6
Secretariat|12.4|New|12.4
My Soul to Take|6.9|New|6.9
Legend of the Guardians|6.8|-38%|39.2
The Town|6.3|-36%|73.7
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|4.5| -55%|43.6
Easy A|4.1|-39%|48.1
Case 39|2.6| -55%| 9.5
You Again|2.4|-58%|20.7

Friday Estimates – October 9

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

Life As We Know It|5.2|3150||5.2
The Social Network|4.8 |2771|-40%|35.4
Secretariat|4|3072|New|4
My Soul to Take|2.6|2572|New|2.6
The Town|1.9|2720|-41%|69.3
Legend of the Guardians|1.8|3225|-31%|34.1
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|1.4|2820|-58%|40.4
Easy A|1.3|2847|-41%|45.3
Case 39|0.8|2212|-57%|7.8
Let Me In|0.75|2042|-61%|7.5
Also Debuting
It’s Kind of a Funny Story|0.6 5|742||0.65
Khaleja|32,500|22||32,500
L’Immortel|22,800|24||22,800
Stone|21,300|6||21,300
Nowhere Boy|12,700|4||12,700
I Spit on Your Grave|11,100|12||11,100
Tamara Drewe|5,100|4||5,100
Ghetto Physics|4,990|9||4,990
Budrus|3,450|1||3,450
It’s a Wonderful Afterlife|1,500|18||1,500
||||
*in millions|||

Weekend Box Office Report — October 3

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

I Am Not a Robot … or Not

The uber-ballyhooed The Social Network buzzed above the pack with an estimated $22.6 million to lead weekend ticket sales. Two other national releases proved commercial disappointments. The much-admired horror remake Let Me In ranked seventh overall with $5.3 million and the thriller Case 39 was a peg behind with $5.2 million.

The big noise for the frame came from new regional and niche titles. The Tamil language Robots (the most expensive film ever produced in India) rewrote the record books with the biggest ever North American debut with a $2.1 million tally. The simultaneous release of Anjaana Anjaani from Bollywood’s Hindi sector was also impressive with a $560,000 bow. In Canada, the Brit import StreetDance 3D generated a hefty $423,000 and the indigenous Fubar II rang up $209,000 from just 30 venues.

However, a couple of indie horror entries failed to ignite pre-Halloween frenzy. Chain Letter eked out a $300 average from 401 screens and Hatchet II was marginally better with an $880 average from a more contained 68 playdates.

Overall business experienced a roll back from both the prior weekend and 2009 revenues.

Critical response to The Social Network was predominantly rapturous. Still, media reports detailed concerns based on tracking and previews that the flamboyant saga of Facebook and its youthful creators was a tough sell. Exit polls showed that opening weekend skewed slightly female with 53% of the audience and plus 25s comprised 55% of sales. Trackers had predicted grossed in the range of $25 million to $28 million and its clear that its future rests on playing the awards card and eventually drawing in younger viewers obviously spending too much time on the net to go see the movie.

Let Me In also received enthusiastic thumbs ups from reviewers that failed to translate at the box office. Prognosticators pushed its envelope to the $10 million to $12 million strata but ticket buyers opted to catch up with The Town, Easy A or the Wall Street sequel. Case 39, which opened internationally in late 2008 and has grossed more than $10 million overseas, arrived as a theatrical afterthought and performed more or less as expected … blah.

Weekend sales came up just short of $100 million, which amounted to a 3% decline from seven days earlier. 2009 comparisons saw a steeper erosion of 9%. A year ago the debuts of Zombieland and the 3D pairing of Toy Story’s first two installments ranked first and third with respective openings of $24.7 million and $12.5 million.

Robot, with echoes of Metropolis, is a more optimistic yarn of a scientist who creates an android in his own image and watches the somewhat amusing results unfold. The big budget production went full out with dubbed versions in Hindi and Telegu in addition to the Tamil original. The largely Indian diasporas came out in force to generate a record opening box office. Still, despite considerable efforts in the past five years, the Indian cinema is just one film short of producing a crossover mainstream hit.

The session didn’t include a new platform in what looks like a crowded, eclectic awards season. However a clutch of early entries including Never Let Me Go, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger and Catfish added dates and continued to keep a foot in the door. Only Jack Goes Boating appears to have run out of steam early.

__________________________________________________

Weekend Estimates – October 1-3, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
The Social Network Sony 22.6 (8.170) New 2771 22.6
Legend of the Guardians WB 10.9 (3,040) -33% 3575 30.1
Walt Street: Money Never Sleeps Fox 10.2 (2,840) -46% 3597 36
The Town WB 10.1 (3,430) -36% 2935 64.4
Easy A Sony 6.8 (2,280) -36% 2974 42.2
You Again BV 5.5 (2,150) -35% 2548 16.4
Let Me In Overture 5.3 (2,610) New 2021 5.3
Case 39 Par Vantage 5.2 (2,370) New 2211 5.2
Devil Uni 3.6 (1,510) -45% 2392 27.3
Alpha and Omega Lions Gate 3.0 (1,290) -38% 2302 19
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 2.8 (1,450) -44% 1907 56.6
Robot/Endhiran Ficus/B4U 2.1 (15,260) New 139 2.1
Inception WB .84 (1,340) -37% 625 288.3
Takers Sony .79 (1,020) -46% 773 56.2
Catfish Uni/Alliance .61 (4,480) 80% 136 1.6
Anjaana Anjaani Eros .56 (6,090) New 92 0.56
The Other Guys Sony .43 (760) -57% 566 117.7
StreetDance 3D Alliance .42 (2,940) New 144 0.42
Waiting for “Superman” Par Vantage .41 (12,010) 193% 34 0.6
Despicable Me Uni .39 (840) -33% 463 246
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $90.90
% Change (Last Year) -9%
% Change (Last Week) -3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fubar 2 Alliance .21 (6,970) 30 0.21
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger Sony Classics .20 (7,010) 27% 29 0.286
Never Let Me Go Searchlight .19 (3,470) -23% 54 0.62
Chain Letter New Film .12 (300) 401 0.12
Jack Goes Boating Overture .10 (1,300) 29% 78 0.27
Buried Lions Gate 96,200 (2,920) -4% 33 0.23
Hatchet II Vitagraph 59,700 (880) 68 0.06
Le Poil de la bete Seville 48,800 (1,740) 28 0.05
Freakomomics Magnolia 32,400 (1,620) 20 0.03
Leaving IFC 12,700 (6,350) 2 0.01
Douchebag Paladin 3,600 (3,600) 1 0.01

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – September 23, 2010

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (23) 1312.1 16.10%
Fox (16) 1263.7 15.50%
Paramount (11) 1228.6 15.10%
Buena Vista (14) 1099.5 13.50%
Sony (22) 1035.9 12.70%
Universal (16) 747.4 9.20%
Summit (9) 424.9 5.20%
Lions Gate (12) 403.1 5.00%
Fox Searchlight (5) 71.2 0.90%
Focus (6) 68.1 0.80%
Overture (5) 67.6 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (6) 60.8 0.70%
Sony Classics (19) 51.7 0.60%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Other * (253) 211 2.60%
8146 100.00%
* none greater than .04%

Top Limited Releases: January 1 – September 30, 2010

/tr>

Title * Distributor Gross
Hubble 3D WB 16,036,317
The Ghost Writer Summit 15,569,712
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Music Box/Alliance 11,250,177
The Young Victoria * Apparition/Alliance 11,131,232
Get Low Sony Classics 8,449,788
A Single Man * Weinstein Co. 7,935,872
The Girl Who Played with Fire Music Box/Alliance 7,539,151
Babies Focus 7,444,272
Cyrus Fox Searchlight 7,442,641
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus * E1/Sony Classics 7,394,171
City Island Anchor Bay 6,671,036
The Last Station Sony Classics 6,617,867
The Secret in Their Eyes Sony Classics 6,384,875
Winter’s Bone Roadside Attraction 6,077,440
An Education * Sony Classics 4,963,224
Under the Sea 3D * WB 4,950,071
I Am Love Magnolia 4,900,430
The Hurt Locker * Summit 4,531,548
Solitary Man Anchor Bay 4,359,937
Greenberg Focus 4,283,056
* does not include 2009 box office

Weekend Estimates — October 3

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

The Social Network|22.6|New| 22.6
Legend of the Guardians|10.9|-33% |30.1
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|10.2|-46%|36
The Town|10.1|-36%|64.4
Easy A|6.8|-36%|42.2
You Again|5.5|-35%|16.4
Let Me In|5.3| New|5.3
Case 39|5.2| New|5.2
Devil|3.6| -45%| 27.3
Alpha and Omega|3.0|-38%|19

Friday Estimates

Saturday, October 2nd, 2010

Interesting.

Basically, Sony is now hoping that The Social Network, which they have pushed about as hard as any drama has ever been pushed, does slightly better than The Town this weekend. $26.85m is the magic number to pass, as it is the number Ben Button opened to… and they want that across-the-board Oscar nominee to be their first point of reference. If things go well, about one of every 20 million Facebook users will have rushed out to see the film.

Back in the Land of Reality, this is an excellent opening for a drama with no box office stars. Aside from chick-flicky films like Dear John and Eat Pray Love, you don’t see $20m opening dramas these days.

That said, as this Social Network and Let Me In were both reminded this weekend, you gotta sell your goods and not get caught up in your own in-house excitement. Social Network sold itself to the media elite, smartly and with style. And as a result, they’re getting box office returns from that limited group. That could, as Sony hopes, still mean $100 million.

It’s really a different conversation than box office, but Sony should embrace and be fully pleased with this number for an Aaron Sorkin script… which means a specific slice of people who want to hear rapid-fired clever dialogue and not walk away with much more than that story being well told. They made the movie they set out to make… and then, I am afraid, got a little too caught up in their own belief that it was the second coming. There is a ton of talent on display in the film, but it is only as much as it is. And perspective gets lost.

The same need to sell what you have and not what you think you have is true for Let Me In, which is a much bigger mystery non-opening this weekend, as they chose to take a gentle, weird, very Euro movie and make it into a horror film with fancy arthouse edges. I don’t see the movies as the same at all, i believe that film can be reimagined (and think Fincher will take Dragon Tattoo miles further than the director of the series now on screen does), so I am fine with what Matt Reeves did. So the question is, why couldn’t Overture sell what Lionsgate or Screen Gems would have opened to 3x as much of a gross. (My first suspect would be TV spending and time for a strong pr rollout, but honestly, I have been so in TIFF mode for weeks that I don’t have a great idea of what the team left at Overture was able to get done, aside from fests and geek community hype.)

This opening neither puts Social Network behind some 8-ball with awards season or profitability, nor does it make it a smash success. It’s just box office. And awards are just awards. And really, what will live on forever is The Film. I am not as over the moon about Social Network as some. I think a lot of critics projected their personal issues with the web onto the movie. But It’s a damned good movie, especially from a major studio.

But I digress…

Nice holds again for The Town and Easy A.

Friday Estimates – October 2

Saturday, October 2nd, 2010

The Social Network|8|2771||8
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|3.3 |3565|-53%|29
The Town|3.1|2885|-38%|57.4
Legend of the Guardians|2.6|3575|-43%|21.8
Easy A|2.2|2974|-38%|37.7
Let Me In|1.9|2021||1.9
Case 39|1.8|2211||1.8
You Again|1.6|2548|-40%|12.5
Devil|1.1|2392|-48%|24.8
Resident Evil: Afterlife|0.75|2642|-44%|54.6
Also Debuting
Robot|0.4 5|89||0.45
Anjaana Anjaani|0.16|92||0.16
StreetDance 3D|0.12|144||0.12
Fubar 2|81,600|30||81,600
Chain Letter|37,800|401||37,800
Hatchet II|25,300|67||25,300
Le Poil de la bete|16,400|28||16,400
Freakonomics|9,300|17||9,300
Leaving|4,100|2||4,100
Douchebag|2,050|1||2,050
||||
*in millions|||

Box Office Hell – September 30

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Our Players|Coming Soon|Box Office Prophets|Box Office Guru|EW|Box Office . com
The Social Network|27.6|27.5|26|28|27
Let Me In|13.5|11.5|8|8|9.5
Legend of the Guardians|10|9.8|10|8|10.8
The Town|9.8|11.3|10|7.5|10.5
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|9.8|11|10.5|10|11
Case 39|3.8|7.4|4|n/a|6.5

22 Weeks To Oscar: The Year Of Good Being Good Enough

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

I was going to write about how tight the Oscar race already is as we enter the month of October. But looking back at last season’s post-Toronto column… 8 of 10 of the eventual nominees were already well in focus. And had I not been so stubborn about believing that District 9 could make it, I would have had every film except The Blind Side in my Top 13 possibles at the time.

The point is not to ring my own bell, but to pay tribute, really, to how early and how strong the Oscar push efforts are these days. They are still stealth. No one is supposed to notice that a campaign has been going on for months. In fact, no one wants to be up in front, towards the head of the pack, this early. You can be sure that a lot of competitors are giddy that The Social Network has such heat around it RIGHT NOW.

The biggest news coming out of Toronto, aside from films that were non-starters, was that we now have only seven films, by my count, that are in any way contenders that have not been widely available to be seen by The Press and some public. And the only one that seems to be an inevitable nominee – scary words, those – is True Grit.

That is not to say that the other unseen films are not serious contenders. Four are comedies – Due Date, How Do You Know, Love & Other Drugs, and Morning Glory – three from very serious directors and one from the director of one of last year’s commercial phenoms, The Hangover. The Fighter is from revered David O. Russell… who has never made it into the Oscar race. And another, For Colored Girls…, is from critically reviled Tyler Perry, who is a commercial sensation and is working from a play that was one of the most widely seen in the 70s and 80s.

And then there are the films that have already garnered a lot of love. Movies like The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone, and Get Low have many fans and supporters. The Town has had a few weeks as the hot title to discuss, to be followed this weekend by The Social Network. Shutter Island is Scorsese’s biggest worldwide grosser ever, slightly ahead of Best Picture winner The Departed. And what of Oscar faves Clint Eastwood, Mike Leigh, and Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu?

I am pretty comfortable that at least 6 of my 7 Most Liklies will be there in the end. The only real question, to me, is whether both Black Swan and 127 Hours, both masterful, artful, commercial films will make the cut. And that’s when distributors have to decide how they are going to craft their efforts. Does a Sony Classics move forward on all fronts or do they decide which of their films is the most realistic nominee? Does a Roadside Attractions, which has very strong candidates in Best Actor and Best Actress, push for more… aside from maybe screenplay nods? Does Lionsgate believe that either of their actor-nom chasing films are BP candidates? And how does Sony balance what feels like a lock for The Social Network when they have a Jim Brooks movie with Oscar winners Reese Witherspoon and Jack Nicholson in the hopper?

But the thing that really, really strikes me at this moment is that it is a very competitive race for a dozen or so movies looking to fit into a few slots (anything can happen in Phase II… there is no such thing as a frontrunner to win at this point), GREAT is not necessary. In fact, GREAT may be a problem for some of these films. This is the Oscar season of Really Good.

There is no The Hurt Locker… no film offering itself up as one. There’s no deep underdog like Precious. There is no Avatar. Toy Story 3 and Inception will be the highest grosser amongst BP nominees (assuming TS3 makes it). But neither film has had the kind of impact that Avatar had and will be two of at least five $700 million worldwide grossing films this year.

So we may be back to the best liked movies over the best movies. How lovable is Made in Dagenham? Is Ed Zwick at an advantage making his first comedy in almost 25 years instead of another drama? Do Academy members really want to wrestle with the heaviness of Never Let Me Go and Winter’s Bone and Biutiful and Rabbit Hole when Black Swan and Shutter Island feel both a little weighty, but are also movie movies that leave you leaving the theater excited by the craft of filmmaking?

I’m really curious. All six of the still unseen non-Coen films could be left on the sidelines. Or they could represent 3 or 4 of the final 10.

In any case, we’ve all been whining about the first half of 2010 and I have to say, there are a lot of good times at the movies coming down the pike. And if even half the unseen films are Really Good, it’s kind of a thrilling year… all of a sudden… out of nowhere.

Cool.

Best Picture Chart – 9/30/10

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
BEST
PICTURE
Picture
Studio
Director
Stars
Comment
The Films
Most Likely
(by release date)
June 18
Toy Story 3
Disney
Unkrich
July 16

Inception
WB
Nolan
DiCaprio
Oct 1

The Social Network
Sony
Fincher
Eisenberg
Nov 5
127 Hours
FxSch
Boyle
Franco
Nov
24
The King’s Speech
TWC
Marshall
Firth
Dec 1
Black Swan
FxSch
Aronofsky
Portman
Dec 25
True Grit
Par
Coens
Bridges
Brolin
Damon

The only film in this category that hasn’t been seen.
Duking It Out For 3 or 4 Slots (by release date)
July 30
Get Low
SPC
Schneider
Duvall
Spacek
Murray
Feb 19
Shutter Island
Par
Scorsese
DiCaprio
June 11 Winter’s Bone
RdAtt
Granik
Lawrence
July 9
The Kids Are All Right
Focus
Cholodenko
Bening
Moore
Sept 15
Never Let Me Go
FxSch
Romanek
Knightley
Mulligan
Garfield
Sept 17
The Town
WB
Affleck

Renner

Oct 8
Secretariat
Dis
Wallace
Lane
Oct 22
Hereafter
WB
Eastwood
Damon
Nov5
Due Date
WB
Phillips
Downey
Galifianakis
Nov 5
For Colored Girls…
LGF
Perry
Elise
Goldberg
Newton
Nov 12
Morning Glory
Par
Michell
McAdams
Ford
Nov 19
Made In Dagenham
SPC
Cole
Hawkins
Nov 24
Love & Other Drugs
Fox
Zwick
Gyllenhaal
Hathaway
Dec 10
The Fighter
Par/Rel
O. Russell
Wahlberg
Dec 17
How Do You Know
Sony
Brooks
Witherspoon
Nicholson
Dec 17
Rabbit Hole
LGF
Mitchell
Kidman
Dec 29
Another Year
SPC
Leigh
Broadbent
Staunton
Dec 29
Biutiful
RdAtt
Gonzalez-
Inarritu
Bardem
The
Rest Of The Contenders
(by release date)
Mar 26
How to Train Your Dragon
DW/Par
Aug 13
Eat Pray Love
Fox
J Roberts
Sept 1
The American
Focus
Corbijn
Clooney
Sept 24

It’s Kind Of A Funny Story
Focus
Boden/
Fleck
E Roberts
Sept 24
Wall Street 2
Fox
Stone
Douglas
Mulligan
Oct 15
Conviction
FxSch
Goldwyn
Swank
Dec 25

Somewhere
Focus
Coppola

Dorff
Fanning

Dec 1
Miral
TWC
Schnabel
Dec 10
The Tempest
Mir
Taymor
Mirren
Dec 31
Blue Valentine
TWC
Cianfrance
Gosling
Williams

Weekend Estimates – September 26

Sunday, September 26th, 2010

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps| 19.5|New| 19.5
Legend of the Guardians|16.3|New |16.3
The Town| 15.9|-33%|49
Easy A|10.7|-40%|32.8
You Again|8.4|New|8.4
Devil|6.4|-48%|21.7
Resident Evil: Afterlife| 4.8| -52%| 51.9
Alpha and Omega|4.6| -49%|15.1
Takers| 1.6| -46%| 53.26
Inception| 1.2| -37%|287

Friday Estimates – September 25

Saturday, September 25th, 2010

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|6.9|3565||6.9
The Town|5|2885|-40%|38.1
Legend of the Guardians|4.5|3575||4.5
Easy A|3.6|2856|-47%|25.7
You Again|2.7|2548||2.7
Devil|2.1|2809|-57%|17.3
Resident Evil: Afterlife|1.4|2642|-54%|48.5
Alpha and Omega|1.1 |2625|-53%|11.5
Takers|0.5|1413|-49%|53.7
Inception|0.4|907|-37%|286.2
Also Debuting
The Virginity Hit|0.1|700||0.1
Waiting for Superman|52,300|4||52,300
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger|44,800|6||44,800
Like Dandelion Dust|37,100|26||37,100
Buried|34,100|11||34,100

Box Office Hell -September 23

Friday, September 24th, 2010

Our Players|Coming Soon|Box Office Prophets|Box Office Guru|EW|Box Office . com
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps|28.3|22.8|23|20|27
Legend of the Guardians|24.5|18.5|16|22|19
The Town|14.2|14.9|14|14|15.5
You Again|12.1|11.5|14|8|10
Easy A|10.5|10.3|10|10|10.2
The Virginity Hit|1.4|2|9|n/a|1.5

Ben Affleck Sez It’s All In The Hands Of The Movie Gods

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Ben Affleck Sez It’s All In The Hands Of The Movie Gods

Weekend Box Office Report – September 19

Sunday, September 19th, 2010

A trio of new films was expected to duke it out for weekend bragging rights but Friday box office returns burst that bubble. The cops and robbers of The Town prevailed with an estimated $23.6 million while the high school angst and hijinx of Easy A took place position with $18 million; followed with a $12.5 million gross for the horror entry Devil.

The session’s fourth national bow was the family-targeted Alpha and Omega (in 3D) that ranked fifth with $9.2 million.

And despite the surge of new blood, weekend box office was no better than on par with 2010; albeit with fewer people buying tickets.

The frame was also chock-a-block with new additions in regional and exclusive play. The Toronto fest favorite Incendies had a solid bow in Quebec of $170,500 at 29 venues while another TIFF debut, the adaptation of Kazuo Ishiguro’s Never Let Me Go, rang up a per engagement average of $29,370 from four screens. Also good in limited exposure were Philip Seymour Hoffman’s directorial debut Jack Goes Boating and the black comic Leaves of Grass.

Though The Town was clearly out-pacing its competition in advance ticket sales, tracking pundits pegged the latter day Ridgemont High antics of Easy A as the box office leader for the frame. Devil was expected to be very close behind the duo.

But some unexpected twists altered the scenario. The most telling wild card was the fact that Devil went against the grain of drawing in women (horror films generally draw a majority distaff audience). Exit polls revealed the horror film’s audience at 60% while The Town, which was expected to be predominantly male, had a better than expected 45% female buyers.

Conversely, Easy A’s composition was two-thirds female and whenever two films display comparable strength, the one that favors males usually dominates. Men out-weigh women among avid filmgoers.

Weekend revenues should top out just shy of $100 million for a sizeable 24% boost from the immediate prior weekend. However, that also translated into a 1% box office drop from 2009. A year ago the debuts of Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and The Informant held the top two slots with respective opening salvos of $30.3 million and $10.5 million.

Holdovers largely took it on the chin with last weekend’s chart topper Resident Evil: Afterlife going free fall by 63%. In general older titles saw their box office halved. The alternative hits of summer have pretty much run their course and specialized exhibitors are almost rabid about getting the deluge of film festival favorites on screen to bolster flagging sales.

Weekend Estimates – September 17-19, 2010

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
The Town WB 23.6 (8,250) New 2861 23.6
Easy A Sony 18.0 (6,310) New 2856 18
Devil Uni 12.5 (4,460) New 2809 12.5
Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony/Alliance 9.9 (3,090) -63% 3209 43.8
Alpha and Omega Lions Gate 9.2 (3,490) New 2625 9.2
Takers Sony 3.0 (1,390) -48% 2139 52.3
The American Focus 2.7 (1,110) -52% 2457 32.8
Inception WB 2.0 (1,510) -29% 1305 285.1
The Other Guys Sony 1.9 (1,050) -43% 1827 115.3
Eat Drink Pray Sony 1.6 (980) -44% 1668 77.6
Machete Fox 1.6 (940) -63% 1704 24.2
Going the Distance WB 1.3 (660) -65% 2007 16.7
The Expendables Lions Gate 1.3 (720) -59% 1854 101
The Last Exorcism Lions Gate 1.2 (600) -64% 2013 40.1
Nanny McPhee Returns Uni 1.0 (600) -53% 1588 27.6
The Switch BV .91 (790) -55% 1158 26.6
Despicable Me Uni .86 (910) -48% 944 244.7
Lottery Ticket WB .62 (920) -49% 677 23.5
Get Low Sony Classics .57 (1,380) -34% 421 7.8
Vampires Suck Fox .54 (560) -64% 964 35.8
Toy Story 3 BV .43 (900) -44% 475 410.5
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $94.30
% Change (Last Year) -1%
% Change (Last Week) 24%
Also debuting/expanding
Catfish Uni .25 (21,080) 12 0.25
Incendies eOne .17 (5,880) 29 0.17
Never Let Me Go Searchlight .12 (29,370) 4 0.16
I’m Still Here Magnolia .11 (970) 11% 111 0.25
Jack Goes Boating Overture 30,300 (7,580) 4 0.03
Leaves of Grass First Look 24,300 (8,100) 3 0.02
Picture Me Strand 6,800 (6,800) 1 0.01
The Freebie Phase 4 4,400 (4,400) 1 0.01
GasLand HBO 2,800 (1,400) 2 0.01
Kings of Pastry First Run 2,250 (2,250) 1 0.01

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – September 16, 2010

Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Fox (15) 1232.8 15.60%
Warner Bros. (21) 1229.4 15.60%
Paramount (11) 1227.5 15.60%
Buena Vista (13) 1086.8 13.80%
Sony (20) 967.9 12.30%
Universal (14) 718.4 9.10%
Summit (9) 424.5 5.40%
Lions Gate (10) 382.2 4.80%
Fox Searchlight (4) 70.6 0.90%
Overture (5) 67.4 0.90%
Focus (6) 62.8 0.80%
Weinstein Co. (6) 60.3 0.80%
MGM (1) 50.4 0.60%
CBS (2) 50 0.60%
Sony Classics (18) 49.8 0.60%
Other * (235) 199.9 2.60%
7880.7 100.00%
* none greater than 0.45%

Weekend Estimates – September 19

Sunday, September 19th, 2010

The Town| 23.6|New| 23.6
Easy A| 18|New | 18
Devil| 12.5| New| 12.5
Resident Evil: Afterlife| 9.9| -63%| 43.8
Alpha and Omega| 9.2|New|9.2
Takers|3|-48%|52.3
The American| 2.7| -52%| 32.8
Inception| 2 | -29%| 285.1
The Other Guys| 1.9| -43%| 115.3
Eat Pray Love| 1.6| -44%| 77.6