It looks like everything in the Top Five will slightly underperform the guesstimates out there going into the weekend. But nothing shocking. There is still a tiny chance that Bridesmaids will end up beating Thor over the course of the weekend, despite what is now – scarily – a decent hold for a big opener. This puts Thor, again, in position as comparable to Hulk (69.7%), The Incredible Hulk (60.1%), and another Marvel classic, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (65.5%).
It’s a weird feeling when a 60% second weekend drop is no longer seen as a disaster. But that is how things have changed. Frontloading, as designed by the distributors. C. Nikki has been told by her keepers at Paramount that Thor will drop only 51%… oy. 58% is possible, but 59% or 60% seem more likely. I can’t find a movie with numbers that suggest a Friday drop of 65% leading to a weekend drop of 51%. We’ll see when the dust clears.
Back to Bridesmaids… a big Saturday uptick is what may or may not happen. It could surprise, if women can convince their boys that it’s going to be fun and make it a date night event. Thor is still probably a couple million beyond its grasp. But still… a solid start for a small movie in the second weekend of summer dumping ground. It’s interesting to see how the sales pitch of this being a female Hangover has worked for audiences, but irritated some self-hating feminists on principle.
A decent hold for Fast Five. It became the biggest domestic grosser of all the Fast/Furious films yesterday and was already the leader internationally. And it has at least another $50 million worldwide in it after this weekend… perhaps $100m, closing in on the $500 million worldwide mark where the big franchises live. Only the last two Bonds will have grossed more.
Something Jumping The Borrowed Broom has identical Friday-to-Friday drops.
And Priest 3D couldn’t be so bad… except that the birth of this thing was so very long and hard and expensive over time (adding 3D, etc). But Sony is pushing the movie hard overseas and it will be interesting to see if that pays off. It could be a case where it does $35 million here and $80 million overseas and everyone at Sony is pleased.
On the smaller release front, more soft numbers (thanks to VOD?) with Everything Must Go and Hesher doing about $3k a screen. Lionsgate’s Go For It is a complete tank.
