The battle of the old men is revving up for next weekend. There’s a lot of debate in town as to whether Warren Beatty vs. Robert Redford will split the market and hurt both films. The theory is that both men appeal mostly to older women and that these women will have to choose between the hunks of the ’70s. I say, “Bulworth!” I would go the other direction on this controversy. I think that, perhaps, both studios are making the safest play they can. They are giving two stars they still value a slot in what is still considered prime time, though the first weeks of May are no different, in theory, than mid-March. In fact, spring and holiday breaks make other slots more viable. In the meantime, the studios and the stars have a built-in excuse against failure by letting these two face off.
Last year, there were three early May hits, but two of the three (Austin Powers and Breakdown) had moderate expectations at best, and only in that context were they hits. Austin Powers made $54 million domestic and Breakdown did $50 million. (Kind of funny how Austin Powers is seen as so big a hit while Breakdown is forgotten, huh?) Neither film had the kind of up side that experts would theorize from the spawn of Bob and Warren. The Fifth Element did. It had Bruce Willis and some great effects. It also capped out at $64 million, and it had one week extra to earn its keep before the BIG movie hit screens (The Lost World). Is a $50 million take going to be considered a hit for either The Horse Whisperer or Bulworth? Nope. Geez, Beatty’s Dick Tracy did over $100 million and was considered a flop and that was back when $100 million meant something! (I still think Disney would have done better with my tag line, “If you don’t know Tracy, you don’t know Dick!”)
A little history, too. Both of these films were originally slotted for Christmastime, and while it’s true that both of these directors like to take their time, it is not unreasonable to expect delivery by March or April. If either film can be said to be smarter to wait for May, it would be The Horse Whisperer, because it’s now far enough away from Titanic that some people may be ready again for a romance fix. Also, as a non-action romance (a new category created by Titanic), it only has so much upside to begin with. If the film is truly a phenomenon (and remember, The Bridges of Madison County only did $71 million domestic), it will continue as counter-programming to Godzilla. If not, the slot doesn’t much matter. Except that Beatty is there, too.
Bulworth, on the other hand, should have been in The Birdcage slot. There are only five $50 million movies so far this year. Three are action films. City of Angels had April. The Wedding Singer had February. Bulworth could have had May. And if the film is good, it would have had $20-$30 million more than it will on May 15. On the other hand, if it sucks (which I hope to God it does not), it’s sure a lot safer being able to say Redford split the market. What could we do? Alternatively, since Fox is already eating millions in interest payments by holding the film until May, if they really believed in the film, they could have held it into the summer as counter-programming. Bulworth, a good Bulworth, smells like a great late-July comedy. A real change of pace, and they could double their May numbers in that slot. But all the buzz has always been that Fox doesn’t really believe in this film. I hope the buzz is wrong. Because there’s always a place in my world for a film of the caliber and spirit of Heaven Can Wait. And for that matter, I’ll be thrilled if Redford has made a film as gentle and heartfelt as Eastwood’s The Bridges of Madison County. We’ll all know soon enough.
READER OF THE DAY: First, A Correction From Steve: “Last time, I wrote the name of character General Lee, the Chinese voice provided by Jackie Chan, is supposed to be Captain Shang. General Lee is his Chinese name. Got it?”
Now, Charles A.: “I have recently stumbled onto this site and find the Hot Button enjoyable. On the other hand, I don’t enjoy the reader comments at the end of the column. Very often it is the same predictable whining about Hollywood and the people who watch their movies.”
To read the rest of Charles A’s take on you all and a whole lot more of your letters, check out Ask David (there’s a place to click just below the column). Starting this week, the section will feature Hot Button and Whole Picture readers, plus anyone else who has something to say about the movies. Updates Wednesdays.

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