The question for this weekend is not whether The Truman Show will be No. 1. It’s how high the moon? (In this case a simulated one.) Based on a high-interest level, good word-of-mouth and a massive (if somewhat inaccurate) ad campaign, plus some guy name Carrey, I’m guessing that the film will do between 35 and 40 million bucks this weekend. In the second spot, not the lizard, but the lizard-skinned Michael Douglas (OK, it’s a cheap shot, but Mike and Gwyneth makes me almost as queasy as Ben and Gwyneth) in A Perfect Murder. The buzz is all over the place on this Hitchcock remake from The Fugitive director Andy Davis. First it was up, then Warner Bros. couldn’t make up its mind about the June 5 release date, then some bad reviews, then some good ones. But as we all know, it doesn’t much matter whether the film is good in the first weekend. It’s the hype, and Douglas traditionally earns his keep on first weekends, no matter what the film. Eighteen million for second place.
In third, I was expecting to predict that Hope Floats would rise above Godzilla this weekend, but I’ve changed my mind. Hope was ahead of The Liz (soon to be a Broadway musical starring Michael Jackson as Godzilla) all week, but not by much. I think kids will still be checking out Godzilla this weekend, and last week’s 59 percent fall-off will become just 35 percent for around $12 million this weekend. Hope Floats should have a similar drop and fall to fourth with about a $9.2 million take. (A $9 million take? Sounds like an Armageddon price tag.) And what would the top five be if Deep Impact wasn’t here? People really like this film and I just don’t get it. I wish there was something about it that I did like. Oh, well. Throw another $6.5 million in the way of the asteroid.
The second 10 should be pretty contentious this week. The only newcomer should be Dirty Work, which should manage about $2.5 million, even with crappy reviews, crappy reaction to the trailer and no stars, which has led to a crappy abuse of Chris Farley‘s cameo, in desperation. (The Almost Heroes/Dirty Work double feature could be right next to “drug overdose” in the “cause of death” section on Farley’s autopsy report.) In sixth, The Horse Whisperer should take another $4.8 million in its march to be this year’s official Bridges of Madison County, though it will have to scrape to match Madison’s $71 million domestic take. Bulworth should come in right ahead of Dirty Work (about $2.9 million for seventh) and I Got the Hook Up should come in right behind it (about $2.4 million for eighth). In the rest of this ugly little gathering, Almost Heroes and Quest for Camelot will try to hold up while Titanic might float back up a little. All three films should be somewhere between $1 and $2 million.
JUST WONDERING: Titanic is amazing and all, but why isn’t Paramount pulling it for a September re-release? They could make more money from the film in a couple of fall weekends than they’ll make from letting The Boat linger at $1.5 million a week all summer. Video killed the distribution executive star.
THE GOOD: The Truman Show is pretty damned good. For better or worse, it left me wanting more. (Warning: Shameless Truman-Show-like product placement to follow.) If you are interested in what was missing and why, check out my feature. And there’s a lot more Truman in this week’s rough cut.
THE BAD: Bad? Well, when you have to open a major motion picture starring Michael Douglas with a lead quote from Jeanne Wolf’s Hollywood, it sure looks like a slamming time. But I haven’t seen the picture yet, so I won’t judge. (Snicker, snicker.)
THE UGLY: The Internet rumor mill has got people like A Perfect Murder director Andy Davis buying into stories like Psycho being remade shot-for-shot and word-for-word. Notice how the world isn’t a buzz with news that Brian Grazer broke his media silence to acknowledge that the new Psycho is currently getting some minor rewrites. I’m beginning to feel bad for the publicists. If they talk, they get bombed (Godzilla) and if they stay silent, there will be backlash when people find out the pundits had it wrong (potentially Psycho).
THE CONTEST: Check out the new weekly box office contest. It’s fun, it’s easy (especially this week) and the prizes (soundtrack CDs) are swell! But make sure to start playing now because the new contest has monthly winners. Miss a week and you may not be able to catch up. And don’t forget my contest, which runs all summer long. You have $100 in your pocket and all June to bet before you lose it, but take a look now. The odds are about to change.
TWO MOVIES EQUAL: The Last Days of Disco + A Perfect Murder = The Last Days of Murder. The fourth film of Whit Stillman’s delightful trilogy, The Last Days of Murder follows white Anglo-Saxon Protestants Chip, Mac, Theodore and the exotic Courtney (she moved to Brooklyn at 20) as they sit in really expensive living rooms and talk about their lives as hitpeople. The group piles up 27 kills during the film, but we see none of the action. Only the chat about how blood stains white polo shirts.
BAD AD WATCH: San Diego Union Tribune reviewer David Elliott says of Almost Heroes, “This is one of the year’s funniest goofs.” Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Is he talking about the movie or Warner Bros. choice to release it? Or perhaps he was talking about quality actors and the brilliant Chris Guest’s choice to take on the project, which came from some otherwise-talented Chicago improv guys?
READER OF THE DAY: From Rori: “With all the fuss over a certain lizard not doing boffo business, I have to bring up what would seem to me to be a greater failure — Quest for Camelot. Is it true that it cost Warner Bros. over $140 million? (I assume the building of original facilities for production was factored in.) Nothing I saw in that film suggested such expense. It was even poorly edited — and with storyboards worked through on animated films. That is inexcusable. I read a lot about production troubles, what the hell REALLY went wrong with it? Why did Warner Bros. do such a poorly thought-out tale in the first place?”

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