Well, gang, you’re about to see the difference between a movie whose opening weekend disappoints but critics and media types like, and a movie that was equally disappointing financially but got smashed in the face by hype and hysteria. My estimate (THB 6/05) of $35 million to $40 million for The Truman Show was low compared to some, but what you’ll be reading this week in the press will be accolades about how a “difficult,” “hard-to-sell,” “serious-minded” film beat the odds by opening with $31.6 million. Which is absolutely true. But The Truman Show is not going to be the next Forrest Gump. It’s not going to do half the business of Forrest Gump. If the film declines in the slowest likely trajectory (keep in mind that Titanic‘s descent was a historical anomaly), The Truman Show will reach $100 million after six weeks (four weeks longer than it took Godzilla to hit that mark), topping out at around a $120 million max. Don’t get me wrong. I like and support this film. And a $100 million-plus drama is a rarity that should be applauded. But keep an eye on the spin.
The rest of the box office news starts with the No. 2 film, A Perfect Murder. It wasn’t long ago that a $16.3 million opening was considered a good thing. In today’s economy, it’s a sign of trouble. None of the hits that opened last June (Con Air, Batman & Robin, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Face/Off and Hercules) opened under $20 million. The only June film to open at $16 million last year? Speed 2. Now, A Perfect Murder is not going to be the disaster that Speed 2 was, but APM will be lucky to get to $50 million in this market. Not good. (And as far as the film goes, I thought the first act was actually brilliant on every level. But from that moment on, they clearly had no idea what the hell to do with the story. Too bad.) As I expected, Godzilla did rise over Hope Floats (which had been ahead of Les Lizardables every weekday, including Friday) with the kids free to fill seats around the country. Godzilla takes third place with $10 million and Hope Floats took fourth with $8.5 million. Deep Impact took fifth with another $6.7 million. Right now, it doesn’t look like Godzilla will catch up with Deep Impact domestically. (Overseas, Godzilla is still likely to crush the All-American Deep Impact.)
In the second five, The Horse Whisperer passed the $50 million mark with a sixth place, $5.2 million weekend. In seventh, Bulworth, with $2.2 million was the last of the films over $2 million for the weekend. Titanic and I Got the Hook Up tied for eighth with $1.6 million. And Quest For Camelot grabbed another $1.4 million to get within striking distance of a $20 million domestic total. So much for the Holy Grail.
THE GOOD: Titanic keeps chugging along. It continues to generate about $2 million every seven-day week. If things continue apace, the film should hit the $600 million domestic mark by Labor Day weekend. Do you think James Cameron will take a note from Jerry Lewis and drop his pants when he hears that timpani?
THE BAD: Barring a flashback, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas will be lucky to hit the $10 million mark by the time it disappears from American screens.
THE UGLY: Almost Heroes will barely pass the $5 million mark.
TWO MOVIES EQUAL: The Truman Show + Godzilla = TRUZILLA. Jim Carrey is Truzilla, King of the Rubber-Faced Monsters. Adopted by an evil nuclear conglomerate at birth and put on TV without his knowledge, Truzilla is exposed to an extreme dose of radiation at 18 when the ratings take a dive. As a result, the boy grows to 30 stories tall and wreaks havoc on The City when he talks with his butt and lights his flatulence. Some have accused Truzilla filmmakers Weir, Devlin and Emmerich of creating a monster that “is a ripoff of Jerry Lewis” and that “it’s not the real Jim Carrey.” But Carrey responded, “alrighty then,” said that he “liked it” and taunted viewers’ inability to control the quality of the movies by saying, “Somebody stop me.”
JUST WONDERING: Am I the only person left on the planet who doesn’t talk in the movies?
BAD AD WATCH: A tie this week by Six Days, Seven Nights and Can’t Hardly Wait. Harrison Ford’s latest is reduced to pull quotes from The Nashville Network, NY-1, Jeanne Wolf’s Hollywood and WQAM/NBC Chicago. The film from Love is in the err (get it?) with quotes from Entertainment Time-Out and Chicago pop radio station Q101. Can’t hardly believe it.
READER OF THE DAY: Three e-mails on The Truman Show that seem to express the range of reactions I’ve heard from almost everyone. First, killcows: “The Truman Show is probably the best movie I’ve ever seen. It was creepy. It was funny. It was SMART (a word usually not associated with summer cinema.) It was entertaining. Yada yada yada. Truman was a very tragic character, just wanting a person to really love and a real life, but he wasn’t allowed to. He couldn’t be happy. That was creepy, and the fact that the director, Cristof, thought he was actually doing a service to Truman was… sad. Insane. I loved the ending. A great movie. Five stars.”
In the middle, it’s Paul D.: “I saw The Truman Show three times over its opening weekend, and even though it’s a masterpiece and easily the best movie of the last few years, I left the theater pissed off every time. The audience, which included people of all ages, just didn’t get it. They laughed continuously through the movie. A few of the scenes were supposed to be funny, but most weren’t. The movie is not a comedy. Why in the hell are people laughing? It looks like the movie is going to open wonderfully and be a hit, as it should. But if the majority of the people who saw it don’t get it and think it’s just another Jim Carrey comedy, does that really matter?”
And finally, A.J. wrote: “Saw The Truman Show. Hmmm. I bought all the hype ahead of time, and have to say, I was a little disappointed. I enjoyed the movie overall, but I just don’t see the comparisons to Forrest Gump, or between Carrey, Williams, and Hanks. I think at Oscar time, only screenplay and direction will be mentioned. I could be wrong, after all I saw Godzilla opening weekend.”

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