Gonna be an interesting weekend. Not so much because of Armageddon. The film should do between $65 and $75 million over the five-day weekend, easily outdistancing any other film. But the strong Monday/Tuesday showing of Dr. Dolittle suggests that word-of-mouth is pretty good on the film and a $35 million five-day draw is a distinct possibility, putting Dolittle around the $75 million mark in just two weeks. An extremely happy shock for Fox. Mulan should manage another $20 million over five days, putting it in range to be the most successful Disney film domestically since Toy Story. Another happy surprise. If there is a God (let’s all cross our fingers), Out of Sight will gather some momentum thanks to strong word-of-mouth. (Have I mentioned that it’s the best film yet this year?) Fourth place with a $14 million five-day total. And look for The Truman Show in fifth with about $10 million.
The Second Five should be led by The X-Files with about $9 million over five days. And look for Six Days, Seven Nights, A Perfect Murder, Hope Floats and The Horse Whisperer to fill out the Top Ten with numbers from $7 million down to $3 million for the five days.
THE GOOD: Summer is now here in full force. And the truth is, the films on the slop should be better than the holiday weekend extravaganzas this year. Lots of good films in the month to come. Hooray!
THE BAD: American Independence Day is, at the box office, neither about independence or just America anymore. You certainly can’t expect to win releasing an indie film. Nor is the American box office the primary source of revenue for films anymore. In fact, it’s rapidly becoming the third most significant revenue stream. But the studios, who certainly are beginning to adjust to that reality, still put all the pressure on the opening weekend because they feel “American box office drives all other revenue streams.” And when we do away with that self-fulfilling myth, better films will be made with less hype.
THE UGLY: I saw Armageddon Wednesday night and I was in shock at how bad it was. It made Deep Impact seem perfectly spiritual and, as any of you who are regulars know, I wasn’t much bowled over by D.I. Armageddon is the Lost In Space of the summer blockbusters. They blow up stuff real good, but they throw away any thought of sticking with the central compelling story and just go for the fireworks for two and a half hours. Here’s my pull quote: “If you like explosions, you’ll LOVE Armageddon!” And Disney knew it, adding the destruction of a city, after they saw the first assembly, for no other reason other than to keep the hyperactive brain-dead pace. God forbid we should be able to stick to the story for 20 whole minutes. I’ve already gotten letters from readers who liked the film and I don’t think anything I have to say should or will effect the weekend box office or your enjoyment of the film. So, I’ll shut up now. Let me know what you think and I’ll write about this in more depth next week after most of you will have seen this steroidal popcorn seller.
THE CONTEST: Click here to read the grossest entries in my The Beyond Eyeball Grossest Movie Moment Ever Contest. The entries are damned gross and quite graphic, so if you are squeamish, keep out! (And if you see your entry, send me your address so I can pack up your eyeball in dry ice and send it on its way.)
TWO BAD MOVIES EQUAL: Armageddon and Can’t Hardly Wait = “Can’t Hardly Wait For Armageddon To Be Over.” The story of a guy who writes about the movie business who spends more time being disappointed than getting what he wants: great movies. He’ll just have to make due with Out of Sight (Great), Saving Private Ryan (Very, Very Good), There’s Something About Mary (Very Good) and the other good movies that are already out there or about to be released.
BAD AD WATCH: Last word on Armageddon‘s “Wow!” from Ron Brewington. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported on the evolution of that pull quote, which basically indicated that Disney wanted a “Wow!” so they could place their asteroid in the middle of a quote and Ron, doing what he does every week, provided them what they wanted. And mysteriously, the “Wow!” disappeared on Wednesday, replaced by another great studio butt-kisser, Bill Zwecker of Chicago, who called it “The Blockbuster We’ve Been Waiting For!” A short-lived victory, but a victory nonetheless.
READER OF THE DAY: From J Norris: “Just got back from the opening night of Armageddon and before bad buzz comes in and knocks it, I must say that I was entertained the ENTIRE movie. It had all the elements of The Rock (also a Michael Bay vehicle); all the comedy and action. Of course, there were some of “those scenes.” You know, every movie has them. Speed had the bus-jumping scene, and Con Air (which I hated) had the plane landing in Vegas. But Armageddon actually made me laugh for the first hour and I was on my seat the entire time … just thought you may like the early review from a loyal reader.”

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