By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Forbes Misses The Mark… Badly
Why are journalists who know better talking about this idiotic Forbes value list as though it made sense?
And then I realize… it’s late summer! Any crap flies as news about now!
I mean, seriously. I have never read anything quite as random and profoundly irrelevant. The list purports to actually say something about the value of actors, but it is so random about the circumstances of rankings, you have to throw your hands up in the air.
There are movies on the list from as long ago as four years… yet it is “the last three wide release movies” of each actor. Yet, Fred Claus is not on the list for Vince Vaughn. And animated films, even if advertised based on the star, like Julia Roberts in Charlotte’s Web, don’t count. Naomi Watts is in the Top Five with films earning (another problem… domestic only) $238 million… $219 of which is from one film King Kong). Sorry, but if two of your last three wide-release films grossed $19 million total and if the one that grossed over $200 million cost over $200 million for a CG monkey, you aren’t on the top of any studio’s value list.
There is also the little problem of back-end, which is clearly not accounted for in any way…. except when, suddenly, the biggest stars are having points counted… but inaccurately.
There is also the problem that in a case like Vince Vaughn’s, the coincidence that he was in a career lull and did Wedding Crashers and Dodgeball for relatively little (seems like Forbes guessed at $5m per) and then The Break Up for $20m isn’t a sane survey… not to mention the absence of Fred Claus and Be Cool (which was not just a cameo and in which he was as advertised as anyone but Travolta) and Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show, which probably didn’t make the list because it only went out on 962 screens instead of the 1000 which seems to be Forbes’ line for “wide.” If Jennifer Lopez gets stuck with Jersey Girl, how can Vaughn avoid Be Cool?
How did Hugh Jackman get to #9 on this list with 3 films grossing a total of $73.7 million… two outright flops and one soft grosser? Apparently, these three films happen to be the ones he did for $7.4 million total.
Yet where is Daniel Radcliffe on this list with $832 million from his last three films… his “gross income for studios for every dollar he was paid” can’t be less than $10, can it?
What about Seth Rogen, whose last three films grossed $345.9 and for which he got paid, what, $6 million total? $10 million total? Even $15 million total (and he is surely now getting paid that per film) means a $23 return per dollar, blowing away everyone else. And unlike many on this list, he earned every dime of it.
And if anyone at Forbes wants to pretend this project took months and months to research, I cry “bullshit” on them. Anything more than 2 weeks doing this was a waste of a salary. Really. Not complex. I ran the numbers on the first 10 people on the list in less than 30 minutes.
Shall we project into the future? Christian Bale’s last three wide releases – The Dark Knight, 3:10 To Yuma, and The Prestige will gross at least $400 million. To beat Vaughn’s current (not well researched) mark, he will have to have been paid just $27 million for the three films. (I expect Knight to do more than $290 million, so he is even more likely to reach the top!)
But wait, there’s Robert Downey, Jr and his $369m in Iron Man, Zodiac, and Good Night, And Good Luck… if he made less than $26 million on those three films – pretty much a guaranteed bet – he will smash Vaughn. In fact, if his paydays were something like the $12 million total that I suspect might be high, his “per dollar spent” is over $30, more than twice Vaughn’s chart topper.
And what exactly does Forbes think they are doing with Will Smith?
According to their numbers, Smith, who grossed $599.5 million domestically with the “considered” I Am Legend, Pursuit of Happyness, and Hitch, earned $106.3 million for those three films. Huh?
No one else has anything suggesting gross points being counted. So he averaged $35 million upfront for these three films? Huh? He paid himself $35 million on Pursuit? Or he did that for $30 million and charged WB $40 million for I am Legend? The math makes no sense by the standards the magazine set.
These are the same people who are estimating that Ben Stiller made only $38.5 million on The Heartbreak Kid, Night at the Museum, and Meet the Fockers. This is possible, even though Stiller is a $420m comedy guy, because he might have taken a lot more in points… like Smith.
Even worse is Tom Cruise, who doesn’t take big upfront salaries at all, but eats large gross points. But here they have him earning $96 million in three films, one of which we know he got paid almost nothing to be in, as a producer. So again… they have to be estimating based on points. But that is not the standard they are using for everyone else. As a result, Forbes has the “controversial” dropping of two of the biggest stars in the world into also-run status as “value plays.”
This list is so inaccurate, so full of missing movies, and so remarkably misleading as to come close to being a lie. I will include the entire list after the jump, since it should be accessible in a way that Forbes can’t seem to figure out how to make it.
Really, nothing against Vince Vaughn. He is a good buy as actors go, but as in so many cases, it’s because he makes movies that don’t cost a ton to make. The real analysis, even with bad numbers, would be two-fold. Who opens movies and who gives the best return on dollars spent? It is that combination that establishes the value of talent. And in a very small group – currently occupied only by Will Smith – is it consistency of picking winners and then delivering them.
May we never speak of this stupid list again!
The 2008 Forbes Ultimate Star Payback list shows which actors give the best return on the money studios spend on them. Their “Ultimate Payback” amount represents how much they earned for the studio for each dollar they were paid.
Actors are ranked according to average gross income (revenue less production budget) divided by the actor’s compensation, in their last three widely released films.
No. 1 Vince Vaughn
Ultimate Payback: $14.73
Movies Considered:
The Breakup, Wedding Crashers, Dodgeball
Total Gross: $442.3 / Salary Est For 3 Films: $30m
No. 2 Tobey Maguire
Ultimate Payback: $13.44
Movies Considered:
Spider-Man 3, Spider-Man 2, Seabiscuit
$830.4 / $61.8m
No. 3 Julia Roberts
Ultimate Payback: $13.19
Movies Considered:
Charlie Wilson’s War, Ocean’s Twelve, Closer
$226 / $17.1m
No. 4 Brad Pitt
Ultimate Payback: $12.73
Movies Considered:
Ocean’s Thirteen, Babel, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
$337.8 / $26.5m
No. 5 Naomi Watts
Ultimate Payback: $12.16
Movies Considered:
Eastern Promises, King Kong (218), Stay
$239 / $20m
No. 6 Matt Damon
Ultimate Payback: $12.16
Movies Considered:
The Bourne Ultimatum, Ocean’s Thirteen, The Good Shepherd
$404.7 / $33.3
No. 7 George Clooney
Ultimate Payback: $11.56
Movies Considered:
Michael Clayton, Ocean’s Thirteen, Syriana
$217 / $18.8m
No. 8 Jennifer Aniston
Ultimate Payback: $10.48
Movies Considered:
The Breakup, Friends With Money, Rumor Has It
$175.1 / $16.7m
No. 9 Hugh Jackman
Ultimate Payback: $9.90
Movies Considered:
The Fountain, The Prestige, Scoop
$73.7 / $7.4m
No. 10 Ben Stiller
Ultimate Payback: $9.50
Movies Considered:
Heartbreak Kid, Night at the Museum, Meet the Fockers
$366m / 38.5m
No. 11 Renee Zellweger
Ultimate Payback: $9.49
Movies Considered:
Cinderella Man, Bridget Jones II, Cold Mountain
No. 12 Kate Winslet
Ultimate Payback: $9.48
Movies Considered:
The Holiday, All the King’s Men, Finding Neverland
No. 13 Reese Witherspoon
Ultimate Payback: $8.91
Movies Considered:
Rendition, Walk the Line, Just Like Heaven
No. 14 Jodie Foster
Ultimate Payback: $8.59
Movies Considered:
The Brave One, Inside Man, Flight Plan
No. 15 Robert De Niro
Ultimate Payback: $8.34
Movies Considered:
The Good Shepherd, Hide and Seek, Meet the Fockers
No. 16 Denzel Washington
Ultimate Payback: $7.95
Movies Considered:
American Gangster, Deja Vu, Inside Man
No. 17 Angelina Jolie
Ultimate Payback: $7.16
Movies Considered:
A Mighty Heart, The Good Shepherd, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
No. 18 Russell Crowe
Ultimate Payback: $6.88
Movies Considered:
American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, A Good Year
No. 19 Bruce Willis
Ultimate Payback: $6.68
Movies Considered:
Live Free or Die Hard, Perfect Stranger, 16 Blocks
No. 20 Johnny Depp
Ultimate Payback: $6.41
Movies Considered:
Sweeney Todd, Pirates of the Caribbean 2, Pirates of the Caribbean 3
No. 21 Will Smith
Ultimate Payback: $5.64
Movies Considered:
I Am Legend, Pursuit of Happyness, Hitch
No. 22 Sandra Bullock
Ultimate Payback: $5.59
Movies Considered:
Premonition, The Lake House, Miss Congeniality 2
No. 23 Tom Hanks
Ultimate Payback: $5.51
Movies Considered:
Charlie Wilson’s War, The Da Vinci Code, The Terminal
No. 24 Leonardo DiCaprio
Ultimate Payback: $5.46
Movies Considered:
Blood Diamond, The Departed, The Aviator
No. 25 Adam Sandler
Ultimate Payback: $5.08
Movies Considered:
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, Reign Over Me, Click
No. 26 Cate Blanchett
Ultimate Payback: $4.97
Movies Considered:
Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Babel, The Missing
No. 27 Will Ferrell
Ultimate Payback: $4.67
Movies Considered:
Blades of Glory, Stranger Than Fiction, Talladega Nights
No. 28 Drew Barrymore
Ultimate Payback: $4.38
Movies Considered:
Lucky You, Music and Lyrics, Fever Pitch
No. 29 Nicolas Cage
Ultimate Payback: $4.16
Movies Considered:
National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Next, Ghost Rider
No. 30 Jim Carrey
Ultimate Payback: $4.11
Movies Considered:
The Number 23, Fun With Dick & Jane, Lemony Snicket
$264 / $64.2m
No. 31 Jennifer Lopez
Ultimate Payback: $4.10
Movies Considered:
Monster-in-Law, Shall We Dance?, Jersey Girl
No. 32 Cameron Diaz
Ultimate Payback: $4.03
Movies Considered:
The Holiday, In Her Shoes, Charlie’s Angels 2
No. 33 Tom Cruise
Ultimate Payback: $3.99
Movies Considered:
Lions for Lambs, Mission Impossible: III, War of the Worlds
No. 34 Jennifer Garner
Ultimate Payback: $3.62
Movies Considered:
The Kingdom, Catch and Release, Elektra
No. 35 Nicole Kidman
Ultimate Payback: $1.01
Movies Considered:
The Golden Compass, The Invasion, Bewitched
