Gurus o’ Gold: November 1, 2011
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
The Descendants |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 136 | |||
2 | 3 |
The Artist |
3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 129 | |||
3 | 2 |
War Horse |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 114 | |||
4 | 4 |
Midnight In Paris |
7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 92 | |||
5 | 6 |
The Help |
9 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 78 | |||
6 | 5 |
Moneyball |
6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 76 | |||||
7 | 8 |
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close |
5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 67 | ||||
8 | 9 |
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
4 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 44 | ||||
9 | 12 |
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo |
12 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 42 | |||||||
10 | 10 |
The Ides of March |
8 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39 | ||||||
7 |
J Edgar |
10 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 37 | |||||||
11 |
The Tree Of Life |
6 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 35 | |||||||
Hugo |
9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
My Week With Marilyn |
8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | |||||||||||||||
14 |
The Iron Lady |
11 | 8 | 2 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
Shame |
12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
Tintin |
12 | 8 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
15 |
We Bought A Zoo |
9 | 12 | 2 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
13 |
Young Adult |
11 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Drive |
12 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Viola Davis The Help |
2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 64 | |||
2 | 1 |
Meryl Streep The Iron Lady |
3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 58 | |||
3 | 4 |
Michelle Williams My Weekend with Marilyn |
1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 45 | |||
4 | 3 |
Glenn Close Albert Nobbs |
4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 38 | |||
5 | 5 |
Charlize Theron Young Adult |
5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16 | |||||||
Rooney Mara The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo |
6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 13 | |||||||||||
Elizabeth Olsen Martha Marcy Mae Marlene |
6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
Tilda Swinton We Have To Talk About Kevin |
6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Felicity Jones Like Crazy |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Mia Wasikowska Jane Eyre |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
George Clooney The Descendants |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 69 | |||
2 | 2 |
Jean Dujardin The Artist |
4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 54 | |||
3 | 3 |
Brad Pitt Moneyball |
4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | |||||
4 | 5 |
Leonardo DiCaprio J. Edgar |
3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 30 | |||||
5 | 4 |
Gary Oldman Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 29 | ||||
Michael Fassbender Shame |
5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 24 | ||||||
Woody Harrelson Rampart |
5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Michael Shannon Take Shelter |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Jeremy Irvine War Horse |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Christopher Plummer Beginners |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 64 | |||||
t2 |
Albert Brooks Drive |
4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 42 | |||||
t2 |
Max von Sydow Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close |
6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 42 | ||||||
4 |
Kenneth Branagh My Week With Marilyn |
2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 30 | ||||||||
5 |
Jonah Hill Moneyball |
6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 15 | |||||||||
Nick Nolte Warrior |
2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
Armie Hammer J. Edgar |
3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Ides of March |
3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
Patton Oswalt Young Adult |
6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
George Clooney The Ides of March |
4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
John Hawkes Martha Marcy May Marlene |
6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Robert Forster The Descendants |
5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Christopher Plummer The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo |
1 | 1 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
Brad Pitt The Tree of Life |
3 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
Andy Serkis Rise of the Planet of the Apes |
4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
Niels Arestrup War Horse |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Corey Stoll Midnight in Paris |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Viggo Mortensen A Dangerous Method |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Ezra Miller We Have To Talk About Kevin |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Jim Broadbent The Iron Lady |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Octavia Spencer The Help |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 66 | ||||
2 |
Shailene Woodly The Descendants |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 41 | ||||
3 |
Vanessa Redgrave Coriolanus |
2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 33 | |||||||
4 |
Berenice Bejo The Artist |
4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 30 | |||||||||
5 |
Janet McTeer Albert Nobbs |
2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | |||||||||||
Sandra Bullock Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close |
3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 17 | ||||||||||
Jessica Chastain The Tree of Life |
3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
Judi Dench J. Edgar |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | |||||||||||||
Melissa McCarthy Bridesmaids |
6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |||||||||||||
Carey Mulligan Shame |
1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Marion Cotillard Midnight in Paris |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Jessica Chastain The Help |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Judi Dench My Week with Marilyn |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Amy Ryan Win Win |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Jessica Chastain Take Shelter |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | VanAirsdale | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Alexander Payne The Descendants |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 67 | ||||
2 |
Steven Spielberg War Horse |
3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 54 | ||||
3 |
Michel Hazanavicius The Artist |
6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 43 | |||||
4 |
Woody Allen Midnight in Paris |
5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | ||||||||
5 |
Stephen Daldry Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close |
2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 19 | |||||||||
David Fincher The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo |
6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | |||||||||||
Bennett Miller Moneyball |
6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||
Terrence Malick The Tree of Life |
4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | |||||||||||
Clint Eastwood J. Edgar |
3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
George Clooney The Ides of March |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Steve McQueen Shame |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Will War Horse explode the acting categories when it drops? Will the acting categories have too much critical Lock-In to allow any worthy War Horse Actors into the race? Or will it suffer the typical Spielberg fate of ignoring performances in his films?
I think the only thing that surprises me in this set of charts is Payne at number one in director. The Descendants would be the film to beat in a year that didn’t have The Artist (which will win with ease, not even needing to break a sweat), so that puts Payne in the top tier. But this year has a particularly strong assortment of directing showcases–Fincher, Spielberg, Malick and Hazanavicius–that directors are likely to vote for. That leaves one slot for the film that doesn’t show off quite so much. I would put Payne (or Allen) in that slot for now, but he’s also got to contend with Academy favorites like Daldry and Eastwood. I feel like there’s more jockeying for the fifth slot in directing and betting on Payne is only because others are betting on him at this point; it makes me hesitant because betting on Payne means betting against Eastwood, Allen and Daldry. So Payne doesn’t feel crazy, just crazy as number one.
And I do feel fairly certain in my top four of Hazanavicius, Fincher, Spielberg and Malick (even though Tree of Life will likely get only two nominations, director and cinematography).
Trivia note, if Spielberg and Allen both get director nominations it will be their seventh nomination each, continuing the tie for most nominations by a living director (they’re currently tied at six each, along with Scorsese).
Surprised to see Young Adult way down all the buzz I’ve heard coming from the screenings has been positive.
I’m also still skeptical that the Artist won’t completely tank state side resulting in it being ignored.
I already see the title: “The Help, the little movie that could”.
These gurus are really struggling this year, with nearly all the categories. These lists are going to change DRASTICALLY.
I ask again, why isn’t Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 on the Best Picture list? It remains the best reviewed movie of the year, the highest grossing movie of the year and is the end to the most successful Hollywood franchise ever. Does it have no chance at Oscars?
Typical. This is going to change drastically soon.
I can’t believe how underestimated Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is with the you guys. I’m pretty shocked, actually. I think it’s going to not only get nominated but WIN, along with Fincher, Mara (who is also mysteriously being under-predicted here), adapted screenplay, editing and quite likely more than a few techs.
Also, Theron and Williams getting in over Mara and Elizabeth Olsen is not happening.
The way the Best Picture race is shaping up, I don’t foresee there being 10 picks. Probably six, with possible additions from films which haven’t opened yet.
Best Actress category looks about right. I would say Theron is too high at this point and I don’t see Mara happening anymore. Of course, once the film is out, that all could change. I’d say Olsen and Swinton are battling it for the 5th spot as it stands.
Best Actor looks spot on.
Supporting Actress is highly competitive. Bejo is more competitive than she appears here. I wouldn’t rule McCarthy out. And, somewhere there just has to be a place for Jessica Chastain. She was so memorable in The Help. If The Tree of Life stages a competitive campaign, then that will probably be her in. (Take Shelter is petering out at the box office and its prospects are starting to look bleak) She’s had such a banner year. Perhaps that’s the rewards in itself.
On the contrary, Supporting Actor looks very uncompetitive. Hard to believe Jonah Hill has a chance. But, it’s a pretty open field this year. This looks to be Christopher Plummer’s year?
Best Director looks just about right, but I find it unlikely that Stephen Daldry will score a fourth nod. I just don’t see it. It’s amazing how few fresh faces there are in this category this year.