Gurus o’ Gold: The First Returns Are In!!!

Rank	Last Chart	Best Picture (Unranked)	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	1	Argo Warner Bros	3	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	1	1	3	2	1	14	129
2	2	Silver Linings Playbook The Weinstein Company	4	2	4	2	4	1	4	1	1	3	5	2	1	3	14	117
3	5	Lincoln DreamWorks/Disney	2	4	3	4	5	4	1	5	2	2	2	4	3	4	14	109
4	3	Les Miserables Universal	5	3	2	3	6	3	3	6	5	6	4	5	8	2	14	93
5	4	Life of Pi 20th Century Fox	1	5	9	5	3	5	5	10	6	4	3	1		6	13	80
6	6	Zero Dark Thirty Sony Pictures	7		5	6		6	7	3	3	5	9	9	9	8	12	55
7	7	The Master The Weinstein Company	9	10	6	10	7			7	8	9	7		4	5	11	39
8	9	Amour Sony Classics					2	10		4			6	6	6		6	32
9	8	Beasts of the Southern Wild Fox Searchlight	8	9	7		8				7	8				9	7	26
10		Flight Paramount		6		8			6			7	8				5	20
	10	Moonrise Kingdom		8			10		10				10	7	7		6	14
		The Impossible	6	7	10	7											4	14
		Django Unchained			8			7			9			10	10		5	11
		Anna Karenina				9			9		10			8		10	5	9
		Skyfall					9								5		2	8
		The Sessions	10					8		9							3	6
		The Dark Knight Rises						9				10					2	3
One Vote Wonders
		The Hobbit														7	1	4
		The Intouchables								8							1	3
		Hitchcock							8								1	3

Rank	Last Chart	Best Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	1	Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	14	82
2	2	Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone	4	2	2	3	3	2	2	1	4	2	6		4	2	13	54
3	3	Quvenzhané Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild	6	5	3		2		6		2	3	3	2	2	4	11	39
4		Helen Mirren Hitchcock	5	4	4	2			4		5	4	5		3	5	10	29
5		Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty	3	3				6		3		5	2	6	6	3	9	26
		Naomi Watts The Impossible	1		5	4		4	5	6				3			7	21
	4	Emmanuelle Riva Amour		6	6		4	3		5	6	6	4	5	5		10	20
	5	Keira Knightley Anna Karenina				6	5	5	3	4	3			4		6	8	20
		Melanie Lynskey Hello I Must Be Going															0	0
		Mary Elizabeth Winstead Smashed															0	0
One Vote Wonders
		Maggie Smith Quartet				5											1	2
		Meryl Streep Hope Springs					6										1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	1	Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	14	81
2	2	Joaquin Phoenix The Master	3	4	2	4	3	4	3	4	2	2	2	3	2	2	14	58
3	t4	Denzel Washington Flight	6	2	3	2	2	5	2	2	3	3	5	5	3	3	14	52
4	3	John Hawkes The Sessions	2	3	4	5	6	2	6	1	4	4	3	1	4	4	14	49
5	t4	Bradley Cooper Silver Linings Playbook	5	5	1	3	5	3	4	6	5		4	4	5		12	34
		Anthony Hopkins Hitchcock		6	5	6			5	5	6	6			6	6	9	12
		Hugh Jackman Les Miserables	4					6				5	6			5	5	9
One Vote Wonders
		Jean-Louis Trintignant Amour					4										1	3
		Richard Gere Arbitrage			6												1	1
		Jake Gyllenhaal End of Watch												6			1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Supporting Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	1	Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master	3	4	2	4	2	1	4	1	1	2	1	1	3	1	14	68
2	5	Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln	1	3	3	1		3	3	2	3	1	3	2	2	3	13	61
3	3	Alan Arkin Argo	2	1	4	3	1	4	2		4	5	2	3	4	2	13	54
4	2	Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook	4	5		2	3	2	1		2	3		4	1	4	11	46
5	4	Leonardo DiCaprio Django Unchained		2	1	5	5		5		5		4		6	5	9	25
		Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike	5				6			5		6			5		5	8
		Russell Crowe Les Miserables						6	6	6	6		5			6	6	7
		Javier Bardem Skyfall		6			4			4							3	7
		Ewan McGragor The Impossible	6			6		5									3	4
		Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild										4	6				2	4
One Vote Wonders
		William H Macy The Sessions								3							1	4
		John Goodman Argo			5												1	2
		Irfan Khan Life of Pi												5			1	2
		James Gandolfini Not Fade Away												6			1	1
		Bryan Cranston Argo			6												1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Supporting Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	1	Helen Hunt The Sessions	3	5	3	3	6	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	1	1	14	66
2	3	Anne Hathaway Les Miserables	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	3	2	4	4	6	2	14	62
3	5	Sally Field Lincoln	2	4	4	2	4	4	2	2	4	1	2	2	3	3	14	59
4	2	Amy Adams The Master	4	3	2	4	1	3	4	3	1	4	3	3	2	5	14	56
5	4	Maggie Smith The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel	5	2			5	6	6	5	5	5	6	5	4	4	12	26
		Judi Dench Skyfall					3							6			2	5
		Jackie Weaver Silver Linings Playbook						5			6						2	3
		Kelly Reilly Flight				5				6							2	3
		Pauline Collins Quartet		6									5				2	3
One Vote Wonders
		Shirley MacLaine Bernie													5		1	2
		Samantha Barks Les Miserables			5												1	2
		Kerry Washington Django Unchained							5								1	2
		Lorraine Toussaint Middle of Nowhere										6					1	1
		Ann Dowd Compliance			6												1	1
		Halle Berry Cloud Atlas				5											1	1
		Nicole Kidman The Paperboy				6											1	1
		Annette Bening Imogene													5		1	1
		Helena Bonham Carter Les Miserables														6	1	1

Rank	Best Director	Breznican	Ellwood	Feinberg	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Whipp	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	Ben Affleck Argo	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	14	76
2	Steven Spielberg Lincoln	1	2	3	3	4	5	2	3	2	2	2	4	4	3	14	58
3	David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook	5	3	4	2	6	2	6	2	1	3	6	3	2	4	14	49
4	Ang Lee Life of Pi	2	4		5	3	4	3		5	6	3	2		6	11	34
5	Tom Hooper Les Miserables	4	5	2	4		3	4			5	4			2	9	30
	Kathryn BIgelow Zero Dark Forty			6			6		1	4	4		5			6	16
	Michael Haneke Amour					1			5			5	6	5		5	13
	Paul Thomas Anderson The Master		6	5		5				6				3	5	6	12
	Robert Zemeckis Flight				6			5								2	3
One Vote Wonders
	Juan Antonio Bayona The Impossible	6														1	1
	Wes Anderson Moonrise Kingdom													6		1	1
	Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight Rises								6							1	1

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Posted in Awards Watch, Gurus o' Gold, MCN Originals, Movie City News | 12 Comments »

12 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: The First Returns Are In!!!”

larry keating says:

November 8, 2012 at 6:42 am

Helen Hunt winning a second Oscar before Anne Hathaway has won her first? I don’t think so.

And Leonardo DiCaprio is going to move up the list once “Django” comes out.
Stephen Holt says:

November 8, 2012 at 7:55 am

I agree with the above poster. And Helen Hunt is not universally liked like Ann Hathaway is and Hunt HAS an Oscar already!

I like that Mirren is placing now in Bactress but y’know the Actor’s Branch is not responding well to nine-year-old Q.Wallis who is STILL not in SAG. They don’t like this. They don’t like this AT ALL or so I’m hearing.

And interesting to see that Emmanuelle Riva has vanished. As I foretold. They aren’t digging “Amour” either. Too close to reality for the AMPAS demographic ,older than water.
YancySkancy says:

November 8, 2012 at 9:19 am

That should be Samantha Barks, not Banks.
Jerry says:

November 8, 2012 at 10:57 am

I was hoping that Life Of PI would be a box office failure so I would never have to see it but the damn early nominations have screwed things up.
David Airstrike says:

November 8, 2012 at 11:09 am

Am I the only one who thinks it’s tragic not to have Christopher Walken anywhere on the list for Best Supporting Actor for The Late Quartet. He stole the movie, he killed it, and btw it’s Christopher F$&*#@G Walken! Am I missing something? This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
Sam says:

November 8, 2012 at 11:50 am

It’s worth pointing out that the chart doesn’t suggest that Hunt is more likely to WIN an Oscar than Hathaway, just that she’s more likely to be nominated for one.

It’s a small difference, but sometimes that happens. Sometimes I think, well, it’ll be a stretch for this whatever to get nominated, but if it does, it ought to have a good chance at a win.

That may be the case here. Hunt is kind of an obvious one to nominate, given that she’s the female lead in a two-actor film and has a very challenging and nuanced role. Hathaway, by contrast, might have a tougher time, as votes for that film might be split between its larger cast. It’s also more of an unknown quantity at this point, given that the film has not yet been widely seen (I think?). I still think she’ll be nominated, but you can make the case that she won’t.

But once the nominations are in, I don’t see Hunt snagging the win, whereas Hathaway will probably be an attractive target for votes if she turns up on the short list.

I agree that it’s more likely Hathaway’s year than Hunt’s.
John says:

November 8, 2012 at 12:59 pm

Does the Gurus know that ALWAYS since 1936 the categories of supporting actor and actress has had at least 1 newcomer? It’s silly to have 18 returning nominees between the 4 categories!!!!

Samantha Barks is happening, Ewan McGregor is happening, Hugh Jackman is happening, maybe Matthew McConaughey, Richard Gere can also happen (BFCA good score and a Globe nomination assured).
Felipe says:

November 8, 2012 at 2:35 pm

Marion Cotillard gives the best female performance of this year and she deserved her second oscar nomination and oscar winning
Michael says:

November 8, 2012 at 5:08 pm

I believe Nicole Kidman deserves a higher spot.
Kholby says:

November 9, 2012 at 3:43 pm

Nicole Kidman deserves that 5th spot for sure. In a just world Nicole would win, but that’s not happening; however, at the very least she deserves a nomination.
Chris Monelli says:

November 9, 2012 at 11:09 pm

Feinberg, not Feinstein.
movielocke says:

November 12, 2012 at 6:46 pm

Picture, I hope we get 9ish again, or ten, the new variable rule is dumb, 10 nominees is superb:

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Les Miserables
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Django Unchained
6. The Hobbit
7. Life of Pi
8. Flight
9. Zero Dark Thirty
10. Amour
r/u Beasts of the Southern Wild, Anna Karenina, This is 40

Director, only confident that these top two will survive the remaining season to the nomination, very competitive this year 3-5 could all fall out:
1. Spielberg
2. Hooper
3. Russell
4. Affleck
5. Haneke
6. Bigelow
r/u Jackson, Tarentino, Lee, Zemeckis, Apatow

Actor, this is the most competitive I remember the category being, top two are set, but the next three could change wildly (as wildly as former frontrunner Phoenix nearly being out of the race at this point):

1. Daniel Day Lewis
2. Denzel Washington
3. Hugh Jackman
4. Bradley Cooper
5. Jean Louis Trintignant
6. Joaquin Phoenix
r/u John Hawkes, Jamie Foxx, poor-man’s-Toby-Jones, Tom Holland, Paul Rudd

Actress, so wide open it is fascinating, Lawrence is winning and a free-for-all on the nominations:

1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Quvenzhané Wallis
3. Emmanuelle Riva
4. Kiera Knightley
5. Helen Mirren
6. Marion Cotillard
r/u Naomi Watts, Jessica Chastain, Leslie Mann

Best Supporting Actor, just a crazy category with Django, 0D30, Hobbit and Les Mis yet to drop only TLJ is assured:

1. Tommy Lee Jones
2. Alan Arkin
3. Russell Crowe
4. Robert DeNiro
5. Leonardo Dicaprio
6. Richard Armitage
r/u Christoph Waltz, Dwight Henry, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jude Law, Javiar Bardem, Matthew McConaughey, Ewan McGregor

Supporting Actress, the Les Mis girls, will they tie Tom Jones or surpass it?:

1. Anne Hathaway
2. Sally Field
3. Amy Adams
4. Helen Hunt
5. Samantha Barks
6. Kerry Washington
r/u Maggie Smith, Amanda Seyfried, Frances McDormand, Kelly Reilly, Helena Bonham Carter, Barbera Streisand