The Weekend Report

Buzz in the New

They simply can’t put a stake through the heart of Texas Chainsaw. The newest incarnation of the 1974 original, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre, was top of weekend movie sales with an estimated $23.1 million debut.

Chainsaw was also the only new national release though several late-year award qualifiers also expanded to national exposure. Eco-themed drama Promised Land failed to ignite with the addition of 1,650 screens and a gross of $4.2 million. More promising though hardly explosive was The Impossible with a $2.8 million from 572 locations.

Also expanding from exclusive to limited status was Oscar-touted Zero Dark Thirty on the hunt for Osama with a $2.7 million gross from just 60 playdates. The flip side was the total collapse of Not Fade Away that eked out $278,000 at 565 garages.

Other new titles were scarce. Bollywood entry Table No. 21 was moribund and the lastest Up—56 and counting—on the Brit kids first intro’ed almost a half century ago—had a decent start of $28,400 on two screens.

Domestic 2012 box office wound up cashing in with $10.87 billion and a more than encouraging 6.2% revenue boost from the immediate prior year. Admissions were also on the rise by roughly 3%.

Historically, going to the movies reflects economic conditions but lags by three years. In this instance, looking back to 2009 would suggest few folk at the multiplex. But the thing about trend analysis is that when things change one has to alter the graph.

Still, there’s nothing one can point to definitively to explain why exactly there was such a significant upturn. One pundit proffered to this scribe that “the movies were better.” “Better” remains an amorphous term. Qualitatively, one would have to find a newfangled apparatus to gauge on that basis and the results would likely display a positive in micromillimeters.

If the standard is measured on the basis of profitability, the outcome is equally fuzzy. As with any year, there were hits and misses. Does the $1 billion-plus worldwide box office of The Avengers wipe out the $250 million writedown taken on John Carter and leave money on the table? The answer can only be found in the bowels of the creative accounting department.

What has changed (and not simply in 2012) is the actual composition of the audience. The once vigorously and slavishly pursued demo of 18-25-year-old males was likely the fastest eroding segment of ticket buyers. Conversely bean counters tell me that there’s tremendous growth among both sexes aged 25-34.

However, the future isn’t merely re-jiggering the production slate to reflect the tastes of a more mature audience. Apart from this week’s launch of Texas Chainsaw, there’s relatively little for the once-dominant young crowd to see on the big screen.

What ought to be keeping execs up late at night is the prospect that younger audiences are losing the moviegoing habit. These very folk were exposed to the experience by parents who had “it” but they have opted for other pursuits—including alternative platforms to view movies—upon reaching the age of maturity. So the link in the chain has effectively been broken or at least been temporarily severed.

If nothing is done to reset the situation. the next generation will have even fewer moviegoers and the medium will be truly on the road to oblivion. Ignore the inevitable at your own peril.

FINAL MARKET SHARES 2012

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