Gurus o’ Gold: 9 Days Until Voting Begins
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 99 |
| 2 | 3 |
The BIg Short |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 94 |
| 3 | 2 |
The Revenant |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 77 |
| 4 | 4 |
Mad Max: Fury Road |
4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 66 |
| 5 | 6 |
Room |
5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | 5 |
The Martian |
6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 43 |
| 7 | 7 |
Brooklyn |
8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
| 8 | 8 |
Bridge of Spies |
7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 15 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
| 2 | 2 |
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 51 |
| 3 |
Cate Blanchett Carol |
3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 37 | |
| 4 |
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | |
| 5 |
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 18 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 55 |
| 2 |
Matt Damon The Martian |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 42 | |
| 3 | 2 |
Bryan Cranston Trumbo |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 41 |
| 4 |
MIchael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 30 | |
| 5 |
Eddie Redmaybe The Danish Girl |
5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 64 |
| 2 | 2 |
Rooney Mara Carol |
2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 |
Kate WInslet Steve Jobs |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 32 | |
| 4 |
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful 8 |
3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 30 | |
| 5 |
Rachel McAdams Spotlight |
5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 22 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporing Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 63 |
| 2 |
Christian Bale The Big Short |
3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 42 | |
| 3 | 2 |
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 39 |
| 4 |
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 | |
| 5 |
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 57 |
| 2 | 2 |
Alejandro Inarritu The Revenant |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 49 |
| 3 |
Adam McKay The Big Short |
2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 40 | |
| 4 |
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 36 | |
| 5 |
Lenny Abrahamson Room |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
| 2 | 2 |
Inside Out |
2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 |
Straight Outta Compton |
5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 36 | |
| 4 |
Ex Machina |
3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 26 | |
| 5 |
Bridge of Spies |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 21 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The Big Short |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
| 2 | t2 |
Room |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 38 |
| 3 |
Carol |
2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 34 | |
| 4 | t2 |
The Martian |
5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 33 |
| 5 |
Brooklyn |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Cinematography | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Emmanuel Lubezki The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 63 |
| 2 | 2 |
John Seale Max Max: Fury Road |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 51 |
| 3 | 3 |
Roger Deakins Sicario |
3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 4 | 4 |
Ed Lachman Carol |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | 5 |
Robert Richardson The Hateful Eight |
5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 20 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Documentary | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Amy |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 63 |
| 2 | 2 |
The Look of Silence |
3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 46 |
| t3 | 4 |
What Happened, Miss Simone? |
2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 35 |
| t3 | 3 |
Cartel Land |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 35 |
| 5 | 5 |
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedon |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
Borehood – Linklater were also winning this near equivalent poll last year.
Based on these predictions there is absolutely no drama in any of the major categories. The winners are all locked in.
Strongly intuiting that Glenn Whipp meant to put DiCaprio at 1 and not 11. Making his score unanimous would up his lead over Damon considerably. (Not that any of those five performances scream Oscar, however. Weakest category by far, as many have noted.)
Mark, in the top category, SPOTLIGHT and THE BIG SHORT are virtually tied. With all the talk of the economy due to the election, the latter will only rise, so there is a real horse race for best picture at the moment. I think the director race is going to tighten up, too.