Gurus o’ Gold: Our Final Votes
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | ||||
Arrival |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Fences |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Hell or High Water |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Lion |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
3 |
Hidden Figures |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Manchester By The Sea |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Hacksaw Ridge |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | 2 |
Moonlight |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Damien Chazelle La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | ||||
3 |
Kenneth Lonergan Manchester by the Sea |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Mel Gibson Hacksaw Ridge |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Denis Villeneuve Arrival |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | 2 |
Barry Jenkins Moonlight |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Emma Stone La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
Meryl Streep Florence Foster Jenkins |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
2 |
isabelle Huppert Elle |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Ruth Negga Loving |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
3 |
Natalie Portman Jackie |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Denzel Washington Fences |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | ||||||
2 | 2 |
Casey Affleck Manchester By The Sea |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||
Andrew Garfield Hacksaw Ridge |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Viggo Mortensen Captain Fantastic |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Ryan Gosling La La Land |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Mahershala Ali Moonlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | ||||
Michael Shannon Nocturnal Animals |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
3 |
Jeff Bridges Hell of High Water |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Lucas Hedges Manchester By The Sea |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | 2 |
Dev Patel Lion |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Viola Davis Fences |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
t3 |
Naomie Harris Moonlight |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Nicole Kidman Lion |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
t3 |
Michelle Williams Manchester by the Sea |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2 |
Octavia Spencer Hidden Figures |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Manchester by the Sea |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
2 |
La La Land |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
20th Century Women |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
3 |
Hell or HIgh Water |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
The Lobster |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Moonlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
Fences |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
t2 |
Lion |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
4 |
Arrival |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
t2 |
Hidden Figures |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Animated Feature | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Zootopia |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
2 |
Kubo & The 2 Strings |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
3 |
Moana |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
The Red Turtle |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
My Life As a Zucchini |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Foreign Langauge | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
The Salesman |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Toni Erdmann |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||
3 |
A Man Called Ove |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Tanna |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Land of Mine |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Documentary Feature | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Oj: Made in America |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
2 |
13th |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
3 |
I Am Not Your Negro |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Life, Animated |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Fire At Sea |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Cinematography | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land Linus Sandgren |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
4 |
Moonlight James Laxton |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
3 |
Arrival Bradford Young |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2 |
Lion Greg Fraser |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Silence Rodrigo Prieto |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Editing | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land Tom Cross |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
t3 |
Moonlight Nat Sanders & Joi McMillon |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Hell or High Water Jake Roberts |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
2 |
Hacksaw Ridge John Gilbert |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
t3 |
Arrival Joe Walker |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Costumes | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Jackie Madeline Fontaine |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | |||||||
2 | 1 |
La La Land Mary Zophres |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||
t3 |
Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them Colleen Atwood |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Allied Joanna Johnston |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | t3 |
Florence Foster Jenkins Consalata Boyle |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Production Design | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | ||||
Passengers |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
2 |
Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
4 |
Hail, Caesar! |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | 3 |
Arrival |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Hair/Make-Up | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Star Trek: Beyond |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
2 | 2 |
Suicide Squad |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | 3 |
A Man Called Ove |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Score | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land Justin Hurwitz |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
2 |
Moonlight Nicholas Britell |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
t3 |
Lion Dustin O'Halloran & Hauschka |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
t3 |
Jackie Mica Levi |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Passengers Thomas Newman |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Song | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
City of Stars La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
3 |
Audition La La Land |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2 |
How Far I'll Go Moana |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Can't Stop The Feeling Trolls |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
The Empty Chair JIm: The James Foley Story |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Visual Effects | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
The Jungle Book |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |
t3 |
Doctor Strange |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2 |
Rogue One |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
t3 |
Kubo & The Two Strings |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Deepwater Horizon |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Sound Editing | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Hacksaw Ridge |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | ||||||||
2 | 2 |
Arrival |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||
Deepwater Horizon |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
Sully |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | 3 |
La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Sound Mixing | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
La La Land |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | |||
2 | 3 |
Arrival |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
2 |
Hacksaw Ridge |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
4 |
Rogue One |
0 | 0 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Live Action Short | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Ennemis Interieurs |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | |||||||||
2 | 2 |
La Femme et le TGV |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||
4 |
Silent Nights |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
t3 | 5 |
Time Code |
1 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
t3 | 3 |
Sing​ |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Animated Short | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Piper |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
2 | 2 |
Pearl |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
5 |
Borrowed Time |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
4 |
Blind Vaysha |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | 3 |
Pear Cider & Cigarettes |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Documentary Short | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Joe's Violin​ |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||
2 | 1 |
The White Helmets |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||
3 | 3 |
Extremis |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
4 |
Watering: My Homeland |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | 5 |
4.1 Miles |
1 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Possible Upsets | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best Actor Washington upsets Affleck |
* | * | * | * | * | * | * | 7 | 7 | ||||||||||
Best Actress Huppert Upsets Stone |
* | * | * | * | * | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||
Best Original Screenplay La La upsets Manchester |
* | * | * | * | * | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||
Best Supporting Actor Patel over Ali |
* | * | * | * | * | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||
Best Documentary 13th upsets OJ |
* | * | * | * | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||
Best Animated Feature Kubo upsets Zootopia |
* | * | * | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
Best Foreign Language Ove upsets Salesman |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Best Editing Hacksaw Ridge upsets La La |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Best Costume Design La La Land over Jackie |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Best Documentary Short White Helmets upset Joe's Violin |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Best Picture Moonlight over La La Land |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Best Director Jenkins over Chazelle |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Make-up Suicide Squad over Star Trek |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Live Action Short Sing over Enemis Interieurs |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Animated Short Pearl over Piper |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Foreign Language Ove upsets Erdmann |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Production Design Arrival over La La Land |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Original Screenplay Hell or HIgh Water over Manchester |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Adapted Screenplay Lions over Moonlight |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Original Screenplay Hell or HIgh Water over La La |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Documentary I Am Not Your Negro over OJ |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Supporting Actor Bridges upsets Ali |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Animated Feature Red Turtle over Zootopia |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Song How Far I'll Go over City of Stars |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Best Foreign Language Salesman over Toni Erdmann |
* | 1 | 1 |
How would it be an upset for Washington over Affleck if more people are predicting Washington to win than not?
And the winner is a science fiction movie about a straight WASP Los Angeles. Even the NY Times figured that out.
Now we get to hear all the winners tell us how they have thousands of friends. “I’m so very popular. Let me pull out this list of the many, many people who love me. Too many to name, I’m so popular.”
I think Moonlight has a legit chance at upsetting Picture. If you look at the major diversity push campaign this year (from noms to new members) I think there’s a real momentum for the good ol’ everything but Pic sweep (w Pic going to the political movie a la 12 Years/Gravity, Spotlight/Revenant, and further back w Crash and Hurt Locker).
Strong possibility for 3/4 black actors winning after #oscarssowhite marks more than just a coincidental trend. BTW, how do you say “upset” in French? All this diversity love has me saying ouh la la. Don’t feel bad for Emma she’ll be back with a better movie. Still, see La La winning 5-6.. just wouldn’t be surprised if only Dir+DP in the majors.
It is interesting how out of touch my short tastes are with the gurus. What I thought was the worst documentary short they put first and my best two live action shorts they have tied for last.
I think La La Land will win best film because it’s seen as “different” in the same way that The Artist was but who remembers that one now? Natalie Portman isn’t going so maybe she knows something. It’s a pity that Elle has been so little seen (foreign and subject matter I guess) and it hasn’t even opened here in the UK so it’s hard to assess her chances. It just seems a bit unfair that Emma Stone will win and Ryan Gosling will not. And why has the tide turned against Casey Affleck? Davis and Ali seem like dead certs but I wonder if a win for Dev Patel might not tick a couple of boxes?
Jerry, the Guru’s aren’t giving us their “tastes.” They’ve made cold calculations as to what they think members of the Academy will vote for. As film business journalists they have some insight into what the precursor awards are telling them as well as what’s “playing well” at industry screenings, and so on. This spread sheet has nothing to do with the Guru’s tastes.