Gurus o’ Gold Speak Best Picture, Foreign Language, Doc Feature
A Star is Born, Roma, Green Book and The Favourite and Black Panther sentiment shifts slightly but are still neck-and-neck favourites. Extra love for Mary Poppins Returns as screenings accelerate, and First Reformed after nods from the New York Film Critics Circle.
First consideration of best foreign language pictures lead off with Roma, Cold War and the festival-lauded Shoplifters, Capernaum and Burning.
Best documentary candidates lead with box-office champs Won’t You Be My Neighbor? ($22.6 million), RBG ($14 million), Free Solo ($9.8 million), Three Identical Strangers ($12.3 million) and Hulu-premiered Minding the Gap.
Pictures dropping off the radar for the moment: The Front Runner, The Mule and Boy Erased.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Pic Post-Thanksgiving | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
A Star Is Born |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 137 | |||
| 2 | 2 |
Roma |
3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 129 | |||
| 3 | 3 |
Green Book |
2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 123 | |||
| 4 | 4 |
The Favourite |
4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 97 | |||
| 5 | 5 |
Black Panther |
7 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 83 | |||
| 6 | 6 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
10 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 74 | ||||
| 7 | 8 |
BlacKkKlansman |
6 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 68 | |||
| 8 | 7 |
Vice |
5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 55 | |||||||
| 9 | 9 |
First Man |
8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 44 | |||||
| 10 |
Mary Poppins Returns |
7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 30 | ||||||||
| 10 | 10 |
Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 26 | |||||
|
First Reformed |
9 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 17 | |||||||||||||
|
Eighth Grade |
11 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 13 | |||||||||||||
|
On the Basis of Sex |
10 | 7 | 2 | 9 | |||||||||||||||
|
A Quiet Place |
10 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
|
Widows |
11 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
The Mule |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
The Front Runner |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Boy Erased |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
The Hate U Give |
9 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
RBG |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Bohemian Rhapsody |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Cold War |
11 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Creed II |
11 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Rider |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Crazy Rich Asians |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Foreign Language | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Roma |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 83 | ||||
| 2 |
Cold War |
2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 65 | |||||
| 3 |
Shoplifters |
3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 44 | ||||||
| 4 |
Capernaum |
5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 42 | |||||
| 5 |
Burning |
3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 39 | ||||||
|
Girl |
4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 14 | ||||||||||||
|
Border |
4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
|
Never Look Away |
7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
Sunset |
6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
I Am Not a Witch |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Birds Of Passage |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Wild Pear Tree |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Guilty |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
10 Days Before The Wedding |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ayka |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Supa Moda |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Documentary Feature | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Won't You Be My Neighbor |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 74 | |||||
| 2 |
RBG |
6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 59 | |||||
| 3 |
Free Solo |
3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 44 | ||||||
| 4 |
Three Identical Strangers |
2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 38 | |||||||
| 5 |
Minding the Gap |
5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 36 | |||||||
|
Hale County This Morning, This Evening |
6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14 | |||||||||||
|
Quincy |
6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||
|
Dark Money |
4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
|
Crime + Punishment |
7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Shirkers |
7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
Science Fair |
7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
|
Of Fathers and Sons |
7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Amazing Grace |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
United Skates |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Whitney |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Fahrenheit 11/9 |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
Have people seen Welcome to Marwen yet? Just seems like it’d be Oscar catnip. Unless it’s an ambitious misfire like Downsizing.
First Man left me cold. Technical awards, yes, but that’s it.
@John E. It’s not just about the films themselves though. A lot of the time late in the year releases choose not send screeners to awards organization which pretty much by default puts them out of competition. As I understand it awards campaigns are actually quite expensive so there’s pro and cons of putting a film in contention.
—do any of the “Gurus O’ Gold” know if winning a Best Documentary Academy Award got more people to buy, rent, or watch in a theater, the doc “Icarus?” it was about sports doping by the Russian Federation government.
Will you please stop being lazy and update this, we’re into January and you still have this dumb November 30th list up. Where is the Best Pic Post-Christmas/Post-New Year update?
New chart up as of Friday.