The Gurus o’ Gold On Key Categories
The Gurus let go of multiple outliers and one-vote-wonders for Best Picture this go-round.
Strong sentiment for Bohemian Rhapsody elevates Rami Malek’s profile.
Actresses off the Guru radar include Felicity Jones, Natalie Portman and Saoirse Ronan.
As with the Academy, the Guru screenplay predictions hold surprises, including BlacKkKlansman leading adapted and Roma sandwiched by leader The Favourite and a maybe not-so-surprising showing for First Reformed, for yet-to-be-nominated writer-director Paul Schrader.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Pic Post-Thanksgiving | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
A Star Is Born |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 117 | |
| 2 | 2 |
Roma |
3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 101 | |
| 4 | 4 |
The Favourite |
4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 82 | |
| 3 | 7 |
BlacKkKlansman |
6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 80 | |
| 6 | 3 |
Green Book |
2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 77 | |
| 5 | 5 |
Black Panther |
7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 75 | |
| 7 | 6 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 42 | |
| 8 | 8 |
Vice |
5 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | |||
| 9 | 10 |
Mary Poppins Returns |
10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 21 | ||
| 9 |
First Man |
10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 11 | |||||||
| 10 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 11 | |||||||||
|
First Reformed |
10 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||
|
Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
8 | 11 | 2 | 3 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | NathanielR | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk |
4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 76 | |||
| 2 | 4 |
Amy Adams Vice |
3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 65 | |||
| 3 | 5 |
Rachel Weisz The Favourite |
1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 62 | |||
| 4 | 3 |
Emma Stone The Favourite |
2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 58 | |||
| 5 | 2 |
Claire Foy First Man |
5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 32 | ||||
|
Michelle Yeoh Crazy Rich Asians |
6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | |||||||||||
|
Margot Robbie Mary Queen of Scots |
7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
|
Emily Blunt A Quiet Place |
5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
Nicole Kidman Boy Erased |
7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Elizabeth Debicki Widows |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | NathanielR | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Lady Gaga A Star Is Born |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 77 | |||
| 2 | 2 |
Olivia Colman The Favourite |
3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 67 | |||
| 3 | 4 |
Glenn Close The Wife |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 53 | ||||
| 4 | 3 |
Melissa McCarthy Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 48 | ||||
| 5 |
Emily Blunt Mary Poppins Returns |
2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 38 | ||||
| 5 |
Yalitza Aparicio Roma |
7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | ||||||||
|
Toni Collette Hereditary |
6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
|
Nicole Kidman Destroyer |
7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
|
Julia Roberts Ben is Back |
7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
|
Viola Davis Widows |
7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Elsie Fisher Eighth Grade |
6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Rosamund Pike A Private War |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Joanna Kulig Cold War |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Mahershala Ali Green Book |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 77 | |||
| 2 | 3 |
Richard E. Grant Can You Ever Forgive Me?” |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 73 | |||
| 3 | 2 |
Sam Elliot A Star is Born |
2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 62 | |||
| 4 |
Adam Driver BlacKKKlansman |
3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 39 | |||||
| 5 | 4 |
Timothée Chalamet Beautiful Boy |
6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 38 | ||||
|
Sam Rockwell Vice |
5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 20 | |||||||
| 5 |
Michael B. Jordan Black Panther |
7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 18 | |||||
|
|
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Russell Hornsby The Hate U Give |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Steven Yeun Burning |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Bryan Tyree Henry If Beale Street Could Talk |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Bradley Cooper A Star Is Born |
3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 76 | |||
| 2 | 3 |
Christian Bale Vice |
4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 64 | |||
| 3 | 4 |
Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody |
1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 62 | |||
| 4 | 2 |
Viggo Mortensen Green Book |
2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 61 | |||
| 5 |
Ethan Hawke First Reformed |
5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | ||||||
|
Willem Dafoe At Eternity's Gate |
7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
Ryan Gosling First Man |
7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | |||||||||||
|
John David Washington BlacKKKlansman |
5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | f | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 0 | |||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Robert Redford Old Man & The Gun |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Alfonso Cuarón Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 81 | |||
| 2 | 2 |
Bradley Cooper A Star is Born |
2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 69 | |||
| 3 | 4 |
Spike Lee BlacKkKlansman |
3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 65 | |||
| 4 | 3 |
Yorgos Lanthimos The Favourite |
4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 36 | ||||
| 5 |
Peter Farrelly Green Book |
5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 24 | |||||
|
Adam McKay Vice |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 21 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
Barry Jenkins If Beale Street Could Talk |
6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | ||||||||
|
Ryan Coogler Black Panther |
5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 16 | ||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Paul Schrader First Reformed |
4 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Marielle Heller |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Damien Chazelle First Man |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The Favourite |
2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 76 | ||
| 2 |
Roma |
1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 60 | ||
| 3 |
First Reformed |
5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 57 | ||
| 4 |
Green Book |
3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 56 | ||
| 5 |
Vice |
6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 41 | ||
|
Eighth Grade |
4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 30 | |||
|
Sorry To Bother You |
7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |||||||||
|
Private Life |
7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||
|
A Quiet Place |
7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||
|
|
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BlacKkKlansman |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 75 | ||||
| 2 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 70 | ||||
| 3 |
Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 58 | ||||
| 4 |
A Star Is Born |
5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 50 | ||||||
| 5 |
Black Panther |
3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 26 | ||||||
|
First Man |
6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 14 | |||||||||
|
Crazy Rich Asians |
5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | ||||||||||||
|
The Death of Stalin |
5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |||||||||||||
|
Leave No Trace |
6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
|
Wildlife |
7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
The Hate U Give |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Widows |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Front Runner |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
You have Timothee Chalamet listed twice on the supp actor chart, with different numbers
[Ed.: Thank you, fixed! Stragglers from prior chart.]
—I did post this on March 3, 2018. But did anyone find an “online” measuring device for if the Oscar show was cared about by people who used their telephones?
—From what I have read online, I suspect that the television audience for the Oscars will not be as large as a lot of people, inside and outside of the film industry, want it to be.
—But since the complaint I have heard is that everyone is watching their small screen telephones, should someone count the web-traffic of things related to the telecast?
—Is there a measuring stick for “they care about the Oscars, they just don’t want to watch it on TV
tonight”?