Gurus o’ Gold: It’s Getting Hot In Here
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 117 | |||
2 | 2 |
The Martian |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 104 | |||
4 | 6 |
Carol |
2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 76 | |||
3 | 5 |
Brooklyn |
5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 73 | |||
5 | 3 |
The Revenant |
6 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 72 | |||
6 | 4 |
Room |
8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 62 | ||||
7 | 7 |
Bridge of Spies |
6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 35 | |||||||
8 |
Mad Max: Fury Road |
3 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 23 | |||||||||
9 | 9 |
Inside Out |
7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 19 | |||||||||
10 |
Steve Jobs |
10 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 16 | |||||||||||
10 |
Creed |
10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 14 | |||||||||
8 |
Joy |
7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 13 | |||||||||||
The H8ful Eight |
9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
The Danish Girl |
6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Straight Outta Compton |
9 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
The BIg Short |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Black Mass |
10 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 71 | |||
2 | 4 |
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 58 | |||
3 | 3 |
Cate Blanchett Carol |
3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 48 | |||
4 | 2 |
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 30 | ||||
5 | 5 |
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 29 | |||
Carey Mulligan Suffragette |
6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Charlize Theron Mad Max: Fury Road |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Rooney Mara Carol |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Patricia Clarkson Learning To Drive |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Lily Tomlin Grandma |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Maggie Smith The Lady In The Van |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Helen Mirren Womn in Gold |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 72 | |||
2 | 2 |
Matt Damon The Martian |
4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 52 | |||
3 | 3 |
MIchael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 38 | ||||
4 | 4 |
Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl |
5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 29 | |||||
5 | 5 |
Johnny Depp Black Mass |
2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | ||||||
MIchael Caine Youth |
6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 | ||||||||||
Ian McKellen Mr. Holmes |
3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
Will Smith Concussion |
2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
Tom Hanks Bridge of Spies |
4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
MIchael B. Jordan Creed |
4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Geza Rohrig Son of Saul |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | t1 |
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 66 | |
2 | t1 |
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 53 | ||
3 | 3 |
Kate WInslet Steve Jobs |
6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 38 | ||
4 |
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful 8 |
3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 33 | |||
5 | 4 |
Jane Fonda Youth |
5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 32 | ||
Kristen Stewart Clouds of Sils Maria |
2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||
5 |
Elizabeth Banks Love & Mercy |
4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | ||||||||||
Rachel McAdams Spotlight |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Joan Allen Room |
6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||
Helen Mirren Trumbo |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporing Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Michael Keaton Spotlight |
3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 56 | ||||
2 | 1 |
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 50 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 38 | ||||||
4 |
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 36 | |||||
5 | 4 |
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 | ||||||
Paul Dano Love & Mercy |
2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 22 | |||||||
5 |
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | ||||||||||||
Jacob Tremblay Room |
6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | ||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Benicio del Toro Sicario |
4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
Joel Edgerton Black Mass |
6 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Ridley Scott The Martian |
3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 67 | |||
2 | 1 |
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 55 | |||
3 |
Todd Haynes Carol |
2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 42 | ||||
4 | 4 |
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 37 | |||
5 | 3 |
Alejandro Inarritu The Revenant |
5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 31 | ||||
t5 |
Steven Spielberg Bridge of Spies |
4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | ||||||||||
Lenny Abrahamson Room |
5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
t5 |
David O. Russell Joy |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Ryan Coogler Creeed |
3 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
Quentin Tarantino The Hateful 8 |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Lazlo Nemes Son of Saul |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
John Crowley Brooklyn |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Danny Boyle Steve Jobs |
6 | 1 | 1 |
There are so many deserving black performers/filmmakers this year, that another Oscar-So-White turn of events will look like racism, even to those of us who were skeptical of the charge last year. (SELMA really did kind of drop the ball in the campaigning/screener distribution game.) Smith, Jordon, Coogler are almost undeniably deserving this year and everyone will have a chance to see their films before they vote.
Are they “undeniably deserving?” I love Jordon and hope he becomes the biggest star in the world, but the critics have seen the movies and haven’t ranked him or the others higher. Doesn’t that sort of undermine the argument that they’re undeniably deserving?
Wow, a lot of these frontrunners failed to score SAG nods, but I suppose that happens every year. It will be interesting to see if SAG moves the needle at all for the chances of Bryan Cranston, Sarah Silverman, Christian Bale and Michael Shannon.
Critics can be as unconsciously racist (and sexist) as Academy members, Mike. Furthermore, many of the critics groups haven’t been offering a top five list, just a winner and, maybe, a runner up. The nominations will be a top five list, and to have yet another top five grouping that’s lily white in the year of CREED and some of these other films/performances will be really telling. (And the critics have been gushing about CREED, for instance, even if Jordon hasn’t come in #1 in any critics awards voting.)
I saw Spotlight yesterday and loved it. Best movie I’ve seen this year, been reading old Boston Globe articles all day. Keaton and Ruffalo did a great job and I’m a fan of both, but they just had the most lines/biggest parts. To me, Schreiber and Tucci, two of the finest character actors around, stole the movie. Would prefer those two were getting the awards love.
I agree, Breedlove. Tucci and Schreiber are the true supporting actors in that film, Keaton and Ruffalo the leads. and the Tucci and Schreiber are entitled to the slots that might be available in Supporting, rather than Keaton and Ruffalo.
Is there a mistake in ranking Bridge of Spies? Doesn’t look to me like its total votes equals 0…
Will Smith is, in fact, great in “Concussion,” although I guess they don’t give a lot of Oscars for that kind of restraint. Yes, the movie is iffy but no iffier than “The Danish Girl,” whose lead is considered a lock.
Like DB said, it appears that “Bridge of Spies” should be in the top 10 if the voters’ rankings next to it are correct.
SAG seems to have some kind of special contract with Helen Mirren that we mortals could never hope to decipher. For now, I’m banking on the Academy to go with the more acclaimed and never-nominated Rampling. Hard to understand sometimes which veterans are picked for the “sentimental” slot, if indeed that’s what it is. For example, it amazes me that Michael Caine has gotten so little traction in what might be his last real showcase lead part (even though he’s sixth here).
As to minority representation this year, the fast-ascending “Compton” is a really intriguing test for the Academy’s (hopefully) shifting demographics. A year after mostly passing on “Selma,” would some of the same voters actually go for a more confrontational snapshot of black experience? And if they do, does that indicate a real changing of the guard or just a “make up call”?
Chris L: Michael Caine has been around so long that his Oscar wins for 1986 and 1999 were already considered “career” awards of sorts to make up for multiple losses in earlier years. But since it’s been 13 years since his last win, perhaps it IS surprising that he’s not being touted more for YOUTH.
With an instant runoff ballot it’s easy to ensure a blacker ballot, just make sure your group votes only for black actors in each category. Ultimately all those votes will runoff into each other and push one or two to the top of the heap in each category. With organization, it’s an extremely easy system to rig in one’s favor: it’s why they instituted the first place votes rule in best picture to forestall organized, easy rigging of theach instant runoff system.
Interesting that Keaton is on top with supporting, with Ruffalo in 3rd, when neither was nominated for Spotlight by SAG or GGs. Not sure we’re reading the tealeaves correctly here.
These prognostications are all pre SAG and GG nominations.