February 4 , 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

The Messengers didn’t require Western Union to top weekend movie going charts with an estimated $14.8 million. The horror yarn was followed by another freshman entry – Because I Said So – that grossed $13.1 million. Otherwise it was a relatively quiet frame with distributors giving a wide berth to Sunday’s Super Bowl conclave that’s historically pummeled film attendance.

Niche activity also applied caution with the drama Constellation opening on a limited-wide basis and generating less than a $1,000 per engagement average. Exclusive run titles could not generate more than passable results with Factory Girl displaying the best returns with roughly $30,000 from three theaters.

Overall business sank significantly despite an impressive volume of product in the marketplace.

Super Bowl weekend once again kicked off with a chiller that comparatively speaking cooled beside past entries. The Messengers bow while a testament to the commercial viability of the genre lagged significantly behind last year’s When a Stranger Calls that opened to $21.6 million.

Expectations were modest for the Mandy Moore-Diane Keaton family comedy Because I Said So and results were slight better than anticipated. However, it was far from a break out and will likely be swept out of the marketplace by new releases in the coming weeks.

The session generated approximately $91 million in ticket sales that translated into a sizeable 24% tumble from seven days earlier. It was also 14% behind 2006 when the aforementioned When a Stranger Calls debuted and Big Momma’s House 2 was second ranked with $13.6 million. The first month of 2007 is already trailing last year by 8% with no immediate impression that upcoming releases will affect a turnaround.

The football finale translated into steep declines for last weekend’s new titles and most of the movies targeted at the 18-25 set that dominates frequent movie going. Marking on the curve the shake up was less extreme for up market, niche and ethnic appeal fare.

The mass of product attempting to capitalize on Oscar mania in the next three weeks have overall experienced less than stellar results. The postmortem on Dreamgirls is apt to be fascinating and uncomplimentary while Pan’s Labyrinth is likely to be viewed as the greatest beneficiary of the golden statuette’s aura; especially should it emerge as a winner in the foreign-language and a below-the-line category. Venus is also shaping up as a movie whose award strategy that’s been fumbled though the potential for a second act looms should Peter O’Toole take home an Oscar.

The situation confronting such films as The Last King of Scotland, The Queen and The Departed (and to a less extent Notes on a Scandal and Letters from Iwo Jima) is that their appreciated value doesn’t translate in the sort of obvious fashion of past contenders. Nonetheless each of the films will see significant boosts in such areas as foreign exposure, DVD sales and in their library value in the immediate and distant future.

Constellation zeroed in on urban ethnic audiences with less than stellar results of roughly $230,000 from 238 venues. And while the $87,500 gross of the 1960s Soho art scene Factory Girl was encouraging, it lacked the dynamism to ensure wide expansion. An Unreasonable Man, a portrait of Ralph Nadar, had solid returns of $9,410 from a single site but the initial forays for American indies Puccini for Beginners and The Situation were unimpressive.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – January 26-28, 2007

Domestic Market Share: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2006

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