December 23, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Limited Releases
Domestic Market Share

National Treasure: Book of Secrets led pre-Christmas movie shopping with an estimated $46.2 million. However, while the news was good for last week’s chart toppers I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks, initial biz for the glut of seasonal debs ranged from problematic to dire.

The star laden Charlie Wilson’s War bowed to $9.8 million while the morbid musical Sweeney Todd grossed $9.3. Trailing them were the romantic P.S. I Love You with $6.6 million and Walk Hard trod in with a discordant $4.1 million.

The frame also saw OK bows for a pair of Bollywood entries, Taare Zameen Par and Welcomeand a dull response for the skiing doc Steep. Juno expanded well while the initial platform for The Kite Runner was encouraging.

The portal into holiday film going is going to be precarious and erratic with holidays creating daily shifts that will resemble a fever chart. The brightest spot is that the Tuesday placement of Christmas and New Years will extend the season through to January 7, 2008.

Still, the initial thrust indicates several films lack the necessary traction to sustain the rigors of a crowded marketplace. The fact that weekend box office exceeds last year’s business is deceptive as more films debuted this year and volume rather than individual potency is a key factor to the increase along with the week day placement of the calendar holiday.

National Treasure 2 bowed Friday to $17.1 million with the anticipation of a $50 million plus weekend. But its Saturday business dipped 9% slowing its momentum. Similarly Sweeney Toddtook a 26% drop; P.S. I Love You declined 10% and Walk Hard lessened its pace by 9%. Only Charlie Wilson got an uptick of 32%.

Overall weekend revenues chimed in with approximately $163 million for a slim 1% boost from seven days earlier. It was 36% improved from 2006 when Night at the Museum opened to $30.4 million. Through December 23 domestic box office for the year passed $9.22 billion; inching up to last year’s $9.23 billion total for the year. The remaining eight days of 2007 will see improved box office results but admissions won’t be much better than flat.

The National Treasure sequel appears sufficiently strong to weather the holiday as are Legend and Alvin and his freres. Of greater concern to the industry are the fortunes of Charlie and Sweeney; both high profile/budget and gross participation vehicles. The former at least appears to be getting an assist from word-of-mouth but the adaptation of the Stephen Sondheim musical could well evolve as more specialized than mainstream.

However, the shocker of the frame was the well received spoof musical bio Walk Hard that looked like a strong candidate for sleeper success. In a season sparse on comedy the film seemed like a natural but its abject rejection appears devoid of a second wind.

The beneficiary of Hard’s (bad) luck now appears to be Juno, the surprisingly appealing black comic yarn of teen pregnancy. It continues to expand beyond niche crowds and if it can maintain commercial potency when it goes wide next weekend it seems headed for the holiday season’s unexpected hit status.

Still to be revealed is the picture (s) that will capitalize on year end kudos a la last year’s Pan’s Labyrinth and Babel. With the broadcast fate of so many awards shows still uncertain, the inter-relationship between gold and glory has been playing out erratically much to the chagrin of studio wranglers as well as those that dole out honors.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – December 21-23, 2007

Top Releases – To December 20, 2007*

Domestic Market Share – December 20, 2007

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