The national launch of Gran Torino shot down the competition with an estimated $29 million weekend box office. Still, the first trio of 2009 debuts fared well in the marketplace. The distaff comedy Bride Wars ranked second with $21.4 million; followed closer by low-budget chiller The Unborn, which bowed at $21 million. Debuting ninth with a comparably sturdy theater average was the uplifting Not Easily Broken with a $5.5 million tally.

Overall business was up significantly from 2008 with the strength of freshman and torrid expansion of award contenders easily off setting 50% to 60% declines among high profile holdover movies.

In general the performance of the top titles and new entries was substantially greater than expectations and tracking reports. Gran Torino had high-end hopes of $25 million and even that figure was viewed as perilously high, as no film by actor-director Clint Eastwood had ever cracked a $20 million bow. The strategic expansion should provide traction for the film’s prospects in the acting category and in several other Oscar ballot slots.

Bride Wars, headed by Kate Hudson and Anne Hathaway, was viewed as being more competitive with Gran Torino but the weekend found it barely fending off The Unborn. The latter film is adding fuel to the Rogue label’s currency as a Screen Gem’s rival and the picture’s PG rating benefited appeal to the growing young female audience for genre entries.

There was also ample response for the Afro-centric Not Easily Broken, based upon the book byT.D. Jakes, whose previously adapted Woman Thou Art Loosed was a niche success. Whether the film has spill over benefits for actress Taraji Henson’s Oscar prospects for Benjamin Button is debatable … but it can’t hurt.

Weekend box office rang up grosses close to $150 million for a sturdy hold just 3% off of last weekend’s level. It was 14% improved from 2008 when the expansion of The Bucket List led with $19.4 million and the debut of First Sunday followed with $17.7 million.

To what degree perceived box office success affects Academy voting is difficult to assess empirically. But it does have an impact, as does the wave of kudos from critic’s groups and the tally from individual top 10 lists. MCN’s current top five cumulative scoreboard lists the following pictures (in order): Wall-E, The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk and The Wrestler.

The hurdle confronting Wall-E is simply that it’s animated and a separate category exists for that type of figure; while The Wrestler looks assured to garner Mickey Rourke a nomination, it may be tough for that film to find a sufficient number of voters who feel it’s their favorite of 2008. The latter, if true, would give a leg up for sixth-place finisher The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and leave the likes of Doubt, Frost/Nixon and longer shots The Reader and Revolutionary Road battling to fill out the ballot.

And in a final note on 2008, while box office remained consistent from the prior year, actual ticket sales fell to the lowest level of the decade. That fact certainly appears to have swung the consensus among media pundits toward the view that movie-going is not recession proof.

But let’s not be too quick. Admissions have been steadily declining (with the odd anomaly) several points for two decades and the best one can say of 2008 is that the erosion might be a bit more accelerated. There’s no question that the movie audience is shrinking but whether that’s the result of the economy, studio inattention or competition from both allied and other entertainment forms requires further examination and discussion.

– Leonard Klady

Domestic Market Share – January 1 – December 31, 2008

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