By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com
The Cash in the Hat
March 7 , 2010
Holy Moolah! Alice in Wonderland fell down the hole and landed on a record-breaking $115.2 million estimate. Business was buoyant and even the counter-programmed bow of Brooklyn’s Finest exceeded projections with a $13.5 million debut that ranked second in the lineup.
Aside from a sturdy $37,400 single engagement for animation nominee The Secret of the Kells there was a paucity of limited releases. Bollywood entry Atithi Tum Kab Jaoge? Was a disappointment with a $102,000 tally from 40 engagements. But Oscar nominees generally received a last minute boost as the minutes ticked down to the opening of envelopes.
Alice in Wonderland entered the marketplace with a combination of fanfare and controversy that suggested limited appeal and a fast fade. The latter was somewhat built in with the announcement of an expedited DVD release date that prompted threats of boycotts from theater owners and frantic last minute negotiations to smooth ruffled feathers.
While tracking and pre-sales were torrid, weekend projections set the ceiling at no higher than $80 million. (The winner in the internal Disney office poll predicted a partisan $94 million.) Understandbly, in light of its staggering numbers, the film played across the boards with its comparatively weakest sector being young males.
When the dust settled the unclassic version of the venerable yarn emerged as the all-time biggest opening gross for a non-sequel as well as setting new benchmarks for both 3D and Imax playdates. The feat was all the more striking for its position at a time that traditionally hasn’t been prime viewing. Initial international estimates added roughly $95 million to the larder.
In light of Alice’s control of 58% of weekend revenues, Brooklyn’s Finest’s performance was no less dynamic. Its debut verdict was in the $8 million to $10 million range. It’s hard to state (without laughing) that the film tapped into the starved young male audience immune to the Hatter’s appeal.
Weekend revenues climbed to near $200 million, which translated into a hefty 67% increase from seven days earlier. It was a whopping 72% greater than the 2009 session when the launch of Watchman led with $55.2 million; trailed by Madea Goes to Jail with $8.5 million.While Oscar fever was present in movie theaters, Avatar took its biggest hit since its December release. Alice usurped all but 660 of its 3D engagements and that resulted in a 45% box office drop. The rest of the slate got an assist from special screenings on Saturday throughout both the AMC and Cinemark circuits that saw surges for the likes of The Hurt Locker and An Education and even a modest bump for The Blind Side.
The media-created David vs. Goliath battle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker will be revealed 26 envelopes from now. It’s safe to say that should the latter movie emerge triumphant that the board members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences will be running on swords. Its effort to “open up” the awards to a wider audience with 10 best picture nominees will largely be viewed as a bust should a largely unseen movie trump the biggest grossing film of all time. It will minimally set off national head scratching and at worst leave the audience with the feeling they’ve been slapped in the face.
P.S. With Friday’s Independent Spirit Awards presentation I was reminded that The Hurt Locker didn’t receive a lot of love from its core constituency last year when it became eligible (as a result of screening at the Toronto Film Festival). It received just two nominations in the acting and supporting categories with a single win for Jeremy Renner.
Weekend Estimates: March 5-7, 2010
| Title | Distributor | Gross (average) | % change * | Theaters | Cume |
| Alice in Wonderland | BV | 115.2 (30,890) | New | 3728 | 115.2 |
| Brooklyn’s Finest | Overture | 13.5 (6,960) | New | 1936 | 13.5 |
| Shutter Island | Par | 13.3 (4,190) | -41% | 3178 | 95.8 |
| Cop Out | WB | 9.2 (2,910) | -50% | 3150 | 32.4 |
| Avatar | Fox | 7.5 (3,480) | -45% | 2163 | 720 |
| The Crazies | Overture | 7.1 (2,870) | -56% | 2479 | 27.5 |
| Percy Jackson & the Olympians | Fox | 4.9 (1,650) | -48% | 2994 | 77.9 |
| Valentine’s Day | WB | 4.2 (1,390) | -53% | 3040 | 106.4 |
| Crazy Heart | Fox Searchlight | 3.4 (2,650) | 37% | 1274 | 29.6 |
| Dear John | Sony | 2.8 (1,130) | -41% | 2496 | 76.7 |
| The Tooth Fairy | Fox | 1.7 (960) | -51% | 1734 | 56.2 |
| The Wolfman | Uni | 1.6 (890) | -62% | 1829 | 60.4 |
| The Ghost Writer | Summit | 1.4 (9,590) | 79% | 147 | 2.7 |
| The Blind Side | WB | 1.3 (1,530) | 2% | 822 | 250.5 |
| The Last Station | Sony Classics | .81 (2,270) | -17% | 356 | 4.1 |
| Up in the Air | Par | .63 (1,560) | -22% | 403 | 83 |
| When in Rome | BV | .60 (1,190) | -40% | 504 | 31.7 |
| Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel | Fox | .54 (960) | -30% | 562 | 217.4 |
| Book of Eli | WB | .52 (940) | -53% | 555 | 93.4 |
| A Single Man | Weinstein Co. | .43 (1,210) | 44% | 354 | 8.6 |
| Sherlock Holmes | WB | .42 (1,210) | -31% | 345 | 207 |
| The Hurt Locker | Summit | .41 (1,850) | 147% | 222 | 14.6 |
| Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) | – | $190.20 | – | – | – |
| % Change (Last Year) | – | 72% | – | – | – |
| % Change (Last Week) | – | 67% | – | – | – |
| Also debuting/expanding | |||||
| An Education | Sony Classics | .39 (1,370) | 23% | 286 | 12.1 |
| A Prophet | Sony Classics | .15 (9,010) | -7% | 17 | 0.4 |
| The White Ribbon | Sony Classics | .14 (1,450) | -8% | 99 | 1.7 |
| Atithi Tum Kab Jaoge? | Viva | .10 (2,550) | New | 40 | 0.1 |
| Ajami | Kino | 59,700 (3,140) | -13% | 19 | 0.34 |
| Secret of the Kells | Gkids | 37,400 (37,400) | New | 1 | 0.04 |
| Harlan | Zeitgeist | 9,720 (9,720) | New | 1 | 0.01 |
Domestic Market Share: January 1 – March 4, 2010
| Distributor (releases) | Gross | Market Share |
| Fox (5) | 654.3 | 35.00% |
| Warner Bros. (10) | 431.7 | 23.10% |
| Paramount (4) | 174.7 | 9.40% |
| Universal (5) | 157.4 | 8.40% |
| Sony (10) | 127.1 | 6.80% |
| Lionsgate (5) | 85.7 | 4.60% |
| Buena Vista (4) | 61.7 | 3.30% |
| Weinstein Co. (4) | 33.6 | 1.80% |
| Fox Searchlight (2) | 29.4 | 1.60% |
| Overture (3) | 21.5 | 1.10% |
| Sony Classics (7) | 18.6 | 1.00% |
| Summit (4) | 14.4 | 0.80% |
| CBS Films (1) | 12.4 | 0.70% |
| Apparition (2) | 9.8 | 0.50% |
| Other * (72) | 35.4 | 1.90% |
| – | 1867.7 | 100.00% |
