By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com
Train Wreck
March 28 , 2010
Opening numbers for weekend freshmen How to Train Your Dragon and Hot Tub Time Machine fell below expectations and for the first time in two months frame revenues lagged behind the comparable 2009 session. Dragon topped the charts with an estimated $41.7 million while Hot Tub slotted third in the lineup with $13.3 million.
The session also featured a passable $882,000 bow for the offbeat thriller Chloe in a limited wide release in 351 venues while there were ironic returns of $14,400 for Cash from 23 underused ATMs. Limited bows saw some weight for Lbs. of $10,900 at a single scale as well as French import Bluebeard that also went solo with $7,700. And there was OK response for non-fiction Waking Sleeping Beauty of $32,500 in an initial five cels.
The target for How to Train Your Dragon was to post a comparable opening gross to last year’s Monster vs. Aliens and by that yardstick the new 3D animated offering came up 30% short. There was considerable spinning prior to the film’s bow about a paucity of 3D venues with some available sites preferring to hold Alice in Wonderland and Avatar. However, Dragon bowed with a comparable number of stereoscopic screens to Alice’s opening weekend and, obviously, considerably less potency.
Next weekend’s launch of Clash in the Titans in 3D is likely to create a much greater strain on the vaunted screens. The roughly 750 lost screens between Avatar and Alice in Wonderland this weekend will ramp up and the following week is apt to see a lot of split screen engagements.
Considerable marketing energy was accorded the launch of Hot Tub Time Machine and expectations pegged a bow of about $20 million. Again its performance was about one-third as potent as the crystal ball outlook _ a double rather than a home run.
Frame revenues clocked in at roughly $127 million for a modest 1% decline from seven days back. It was 14% lagging behind 2009 when the debuting combo of Monsters vs. Aliens and The Haunting in Connecticut topped the charts with respective bows of $59.3 million and $23 million.
The 3D log jam is about available screens but the diminution of films in the marketplace that’s long been predicted will just have to wait. The first quarter of 2010 has seen just five fewer releases than were tracked in the prior year and that translated into an insignificant 3% decline. Pundits continue to predict a sharp drop in film releases before the end of the year but judging from headlines, there’s scant indication that acquisition of independent product is on the decline. In fact, it appears to be on the ascendant.
Weekend Estimates: March 26-28, 2010
| Title | Distributor | Gross (average) | % change * | Theaters | Cume |
| How to Train Your Dragon | Par | 41.7 (10,280) | New | 4055 | 41.7 |
| Alice in Wonderland | BV | 17.4 (5,130) | -49% | 3384 | 293.2 |
| Hot Tub Time Machine | MGM | 13.3 (4,820) | New | 2754 | 13.3 |
| The Bounty Hunter | Sony | 12.2 (3,980) | -41% | 3074 | 38.6 |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid | Fox | 10.0 (3,260) | -55% | 3083 | 35.8 |
| She’s Out of My League | Par | 3.5 (1,440) | -40% | 2432 | 25.6 |
| Green Zone | Uni | 3.3 (1,290) | -46% | 2557 | 30.4 |
| Shutter Island | Par | 3.2 (1,490) | -33% | 2123 | 120.6 |
| Repo Men | Uni | 3.0 (1,190) | -51% | 2519 | 11.3 |
| Our Family Wedding | Fox Searchlight | 2.2 (1,930) | -42% | 1132 | 16.8 |
| Avatar | Fox | 2.0 (2,170) | -50% | 930 | 740.4 |
| Remember Me | Summit | 1.9 (990) | -41% | 1935 | 17 |
| The Ghost Writer | Summit | 1.7 (2,040) | -19% | 819 | 9.2 |
| Greenberg | Focus | 1.0 (5,740) | 575% | 181 | 1.2 |
| Chloe | Sony Classics/E1 | .88 (2,510) | New | 351 | 0.88 |
| Crazy Heart | Fox Searchlight | .82 (960) | -41% | 849 | 37.8 |
| Brooklyn’s Finest | Overture | .75 (1,010) | -54% | 739 | 26.2 |
| The Crazies | Overture | .69 (810) | -54% | 851 | 37.6 |
| Percy Jackson & the Olympians | Fox | .65 (820) | -53% | 790 | 86.1 |
| Cop Out | WB | .51 (780) | -64% | 655 | 43.6 |
| The Blind Side | WB | .46 (1,030) | -48% | 445 | 255.1 |
| The Runaways | Apparition | .45 (1,880) | -45% | 237 | 1.6 |
| Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) | – | $120.70 | – | – | – |
| % Change (Last Year) | – | -14% | – | – | – |
| % Change (Last Week) | – | -1% | – | – | – |
| Also debuting/expanding | |||||
| Hubble 3D | WB | .37 (9.380) | -11% | 39 | 1.05 |
| Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Music Box | .31 (7,430) | -7% | 42 | 0.8 |
| The Hurt Locker | Summit | .20 (1,030) | -55% | 195 | 17.1 |
| Mother | Magnolia | 74,300 (2,120) | 40% | 35 | 0.21 |
| Waking Sleeping Beauty | BVI | 32,500 (6,500) | New | 5 | 0.03 |
| Cash | Roadside | 14,400 (630) | New | 23 | 0.01 |
| The Eclipse | Magnolia | 12,200 (2,030) | New | 6 | 0.01 |
| Lbs. | True Indie | 10,900 (10,900) | New | 1 | 0.01 |
| Bluebeard | Strand | 7,700 (7,700) | New | 1 | 0.01 |
| Dancing Across Borders | First Run | 4,600 (4,600) |
|
1 | 0.01 |
Domestic Market Share: January 1 – March 25, 2010
| Distributor (releases) | Gross | Market Share |
| Fox (6) | 724.1 | 29.10% |
| Warner Bros. (11) | 469.1 | 18.80% |
| Buena Vista (5) | 340.3 | 13.70% |
| Paramount (5) | 233.4 | 9.40% |
| Universal (7) | 196.8 | 7.90% |
| Sony (11) | 159.2 | 6.40% |
| Lionsgate (5) | 86.9 | 3.50% |
| Overture (5) | 63.5 | 2.50% |
| Fox Searchlight (3) | 55 | 2.20% |
| Weinstein Co. (4) | 38.9 | 1.60% |
| Summit (5) | 34.6 | 1.40% |
| Sony Classics (7) | 23.1 | 0.90% |
| CBS Films (1) | 12.5 | 0.50% |
| Other * (89) | 53.6 | 2.10% |
| 2491 | 100.00% | |
| * none greater than 0.45% | – | – |
