By Ray Pride Pride@moviecitynews.com
The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1
The Gurus make their final estimations of the field as seen by the Academy… no huge surprises, but Vice tumbled to the bottom almost all categories, with a few stray hopes for an editing nod. Free Solo blowed up real good; sentiment toward RBG rises.
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 92 | |
2 | 2 |
Green Book |
2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 86 | |
4 | 5 |
The Favourite |
3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 57 | |
3 | 4 |
Black Panther |
8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 56 | |
5 | 3 |
BlacKkKlansman |
4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 54 | |
6 | 7 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 40 | |
7 | 6 |
A Star Is Born |
5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 32 | |
8 | 8 |
Vice |
6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 16 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Alfonso Cuarón Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
2 | 2 |
Spike Lee BlacKkKlansman |
2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 51 |
3 | 3 |
Yorgos Lanthimos The Favourite |
4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 35 |
4 | 4 |
Pawel Pawlikowski Cold War |
5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
5 | 5 |
Adam McKay Vice |
3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
The Favourite |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 60 |
2 | 2 |
Green Book |
2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 50 |
3 | 4 |
First Reformed |
4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 32 |
4 | 5 |
Vice |
5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 22 |
5 | 3 |
Roma |
3 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 11 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
BlacKkKlansman |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
2 | 3 |
Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
3 | 2 |
If Beale Street Could Talk |
3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 42 |
4 | 4 |
A Star is Born |
4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
5 | 5 |
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Animated | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
2 | 2 |
Incredibles 2 |
2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 48 |
3 | 3 |
Isle of Dogs |
3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 40 |
4 | 5 |
Ralph Breaks The Internet |
5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
5 | 4 |
Mirai |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Cinematography | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Alfonso Cuarón Roma |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | ||
2 |
Cold War Łukasz Żal |
3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 46 | ||
3 |
The Favourite Robbie Ryan |
2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 35 | ||
4 |
A Star Is Born Matthew Libatiqe |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 22 | ||
5 |
Never Look Away Caleb Deschanel |
5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 |
Rank | Last Chart | Film Editing | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Bohemian Rhapsody |
2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 52 | |
4 | 3 |
Vice |
1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 47 | |
3 | 4 |
BlacKkKlansman |
5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 31 | |
2 | 2 |
The Favourite |
3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 28 | |
5 | 5 |
Green Book |
4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 20 |
Rank | Last Chart | Documentary Feature | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 |
Free Solo |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 60 |
2 | 1 |
RBG |
2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 55 |
3 | 3 |
Minding the Gap |
3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 38 |
4 | 4 |
Hale County This Morning, This Evening |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
5 | 5 |
Of Fathers & Sons |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
Rank | Last Chart | Foreign Language | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Laffly | Morales | Patterson | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Roma |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 64 |
2 | 2 |
Cold War |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 53 |
3 | 3 |
Shoplifters |
3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
4 | 4 |
Capernaum |
5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
5 | 5 |
Never Look Away |
4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist
Peter Howell: Toronto Star
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter; Facebook
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily
Jeff Sneider: Collider
So two Gurus think Green Book is the least likely nominee to win in the Best Original Screenplay category? That almost seems objectively wrong.
Mileage appears to vary.
I’m guessing they think the controversy about it is more damning than it really is. I’ll groan if it wins.