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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Box Office

The first two Harry Potter movies, Toy Story 2, LOTR: Return of the King and The Passion of The Christ. 

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Those are the only five movies that have had better Fridays outside of the summer than The Incredibles did yesterday.  (For the record, there are 15 summer films that opened Friday better.)  The Friday number is better than Finding Nemo’s and I suspect that The Incredibles will be challenging that same film for 14th spot on the Best Ever Openings list, the fifth best start out of summer ever and a possibility to pass LOTR: Return of the King, which did $72.6 million.

(Sidebar: The best First Friday/Second Friday combo ever was Spider-Man with $39.4 million the first Friday and $19.9 million on the second. Second best, with the highest second Friday gross of all time is Shrek 2, with $28.3 million the first Friday and $20 million the second. LOTR: Return of the King is in third, with $21.8 million to start and $19.2 million following.)

The Grudge, Ray and Saw were all within shooting distance of one another again this Friday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ray pulls ahead on Saturday night, as the horror cycle slows and The Incredibles eats all the box office that isn’t older couples… where Ray reigns.

Even if the 40% drop holds for Ray over the weekend, it would end its second week with over $37 million in the bank and even of that rate of descent continued, you’re still looking at $65 million for this black musical biopic… plenty enough of a win to keep Best Picture Oscar hopes alive.

Not alive, except for a near lock Best Original Song slot, is Alfie, which looks to disappoint even by the standard of low projections of $7 million.

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11 Responses to “Weekend Box Office”

  1. barry says:

    ray is a best actor lock, beyond that is hopeful at best. Incredibles looks like a big opener but I really don’t see it holding on like previous Pixar films, maybe $200-220 range. They need to break out of this kids film slump and start making real films, they’re running it into the ground.

  2. Eric says:

    I wouldn’t expect anything but a huge opening for Incredibles– when did that teaser trailer go out? (The one where he’s trying to fit into his belt.) Was it a year ago? A year and a half? Craziness.
    Out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea if there’s ever been a campaign that started sooner?

  3. Ray says:

    Plus that CARS trailer on the front of all those prints…

  4. martin says:

    Pixar is in their own little world of distribution and marketing. And as much as animation artists will say otherwise, 3D kids animation is really where the market is right now. It’s not just the “story” that’s generating $70 mill. openings. Kids and teens love the look of these new movies. Which is why I’m surprised the other studios aren’t making an attempt at it. If you’re going to spend $180 million on a Jim Carrey movie, why not spend $90 on a 3D animated one?

  5. Mark says:

    Forget marketing or anything. They put out great movies. Thats it.

  6. bicycle bob says:

    count ray in for a best pick. along with foxx as best actor
    who would have thought in living color would give us 2 golden globe winners and two oscar guys? and i’m not counting tommy davidsons performance in strictly business

  7. Matt P. says:

    The only one that I can think of would be the Mask 2 or The Hulk. Remember the God-awful Mask 2 teaser with the Lord of the Rings movie last year? It didn’t get any better when they extrapolated that out to actual footage. I can’t imagine that New Line is feeling very good at all about this. The full-house bad reactions these trailers have gotten the six or so times I have seen them can’t be good.
    The Hulk was teased with the original Spider-Man and came out in June or July last year right? That was about 13 months.
    I think the Incredibles might have the record.

  8. SRCputt says:

    The Incredibles marketing campaign is business as usual for Pixar. They promote their next film at the front of each release. So the Cars teaser is in front of The Incredibles, just as The Incredibles teaser premiering in front of Finding Nemo, Finding Nemo’s teaser in front of Monsters Inc., etc.
    Makes sense. After all, the most likely audience for a Pixar film is an audience of another Pixar film.

  9. SRCputt says:

    I’m not understanding the “kids film slump” line in an earlier post. First, Incredibles is decidedly more adult leaning than any other Pixar feature. Second, Pixar has never made a kids film. They make family films, films that can be enjoyed by everyone in the family. I’ve loved every film they’ve made. Finally, every studio in Hollywood would love to be in the “slump” Pixar is in. Creatively and financially, they have a better track record than any studio in the world.

  10. Mark says:

    Amazing why no studio is going after Pixar. A hit factory.

  11. Natalie Stevenson says:

    My name is Natalie Stevenson i’m a sixth form student cureently studying media stuides. For my course work i aim to assess the success of the marketing campaign for the incredibles would it be possible for you to send me some information regarding “the marketing campagin of the incredibles” I will look forward to hearing from you soon Thank you
    Natalie Stevenson

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