Weekend Estimates by Klady – Easy Town
(Tardy writing… 7p… football and family… and not much to say…)
So not only didn’t Easy A chase down The Town, Affleck’s latest was actually quite muscular after its Friday launch.
Devil reminds us again that Screen Gems is not an easy act to imitate. Not a horrible launch… but not surprisingly strong, given the marketing pedigree.
I’m Still Here, expanding to 5x the screens and still doing less than $1000 per screen is a tribute to how publicity can fail to draw a crowd. They must be hoping Phoenix’s Letterman slot this week turns the corner on the VOD, if not the theatrical.
Unless it’s been yanked from almost all its screens, expect Twilight: Eclipse to finally hit the $300mil mark this weekend. BoxOfficeMojo had it at $299,894,595 on Thursday.
“Inception breaks $750M worldwide today. $468.2M intl + $285.2M dom for $753.4M global. $800M possible.”
from boxofficeguru’s twitter
You’re wrong Neil. Inception won’t break $600m globally. David Poland told me so himself.
Better to be Ben Affleck than Casey this weekend, huh?
I’m glad you brought that up ThriceDamned because we should not forget that David Poland, who is never ever wrong, first said about Inception, “And some will, just be happy that a challenging film can do $400 million-plus worldwide, which is where I think its headed.” On the next weekend he commented, “I still think there has been a pretty strong overstatement in the press about how this film is doing. And that is, no doubt, self-fulfilling.” Then about a month into release David wrote, “Foreign results so far don’t suggest that there will be an unusual foreign embrace of the film in comparison to the domestic numbers. So look for $600m to be about the worldwide cap on the film. Nothing wrong with that, though the profit picture is not one that will encourage others to follow in pursuing similarly ambitious films.” David Poland = Nostradamus
Inception once again proves this point: I ONCE AGAIN HAVE ONE UP ON POLAND! Here’s hoping that I get two up on him this December with Tron.
I love how you guys obsess when I guess wrong about something.
Yes, I was wrong about Inception’s international number… have said so before. It had more kick than I expected.
Hooray… I was wrong about something.
Well, you have to admit you said you would “trumpet its success”. I think so far there’s been about 3-4 grudging sentences, usually tied with a negative comment about people pointing out your posting history.
To be fair, it also performed beyond my expectations – but I can understand why, when offered the choice between a known branded property and an Inception-style risk, most studio execs would probably turn down future Inceptions.
David it has nothing to do with the fact that you ‘guessed’ wrong about Inception. For me at least it’s the way in which you so forcefully bludgeon anyone who has an opinion that varies from yours. And then once it begins to appear you’ve been proven wrong, you express only bitterness. You act as if they had no right to end up being correct. Then once it’s completely obvious that you were wrong and you have no choice but to admit it, you address it only briefly and still manage to find a way to put down those who had that different although be it correct opinion. Now it’s almost time for you to ‘Rinse and Repeat.’
It’s not that you “guess” wrong about something, moron. It’s the cockiness and confidence of which you speak. You truly act like you have all the answers. You should be a writer (a real writer) or work for a studio or direct a movie. You take zero chances and you act so cocky with how you speak. You make fun of Finke, but you do the same thing, just without the trademarked TOLDJA.
Still my favorite prediction was something about Land of the Lost being the comedy of last summer. I don’t remember and I am too lazy to look.
Oh, have you noticed your traffic is down? The new website/look is horrendous.
Oookies – if you’re going to bitch about the new look, keep it constructive. Say something specific with a suggestion of how you would change it, so that DP has at least got something to work with.
P.S. “Make it suck less” is NOT constructive.
Make it suck less is not constructive but the guy had two nice looking sites, then gussied them up for no reason. Literally, there was no reason to overhaul MCN and this blog the way that he did and I really have to ask; David, why didn’t you ask us about this re-design?
Sure you might not care but come on, you have like 15 people you converse with daily, and you never once go; “maybe these folks can give me some constructive criticism?” Seriously, we could have helped because it’s not like we do not enjoy coming here. Nevertheless, folks will get used to it, but it still seems like a bit of overkill.
That aside, you were wrong but you never ever do this; “You know guys, I really got that wrong. I got it real wrong and I apologize for going off on anyone who disagreed with me.” You never ever do that. You do exactly like the two people above stated and my lord, is it annoying as all get out.
This stuff is all conjecture. Sure, I get it more right than you do a lot of the time but you did see Avatar coming, when NO ONE (or hardly anyone) agreed with you, so you can call a shot, but when you swing and miss wildly like you did on Inception. You just expect us to ignore post after post from you stating that the film is not going to make this, then it’s not going to make that, and then finally that it made what it made but begrudge it making what it made and that’s just frustrating.
Again, all folks want is for you to admit that you are wrong from time to time, and you simply lack the ability to do it when you are proven wrong. Admitting you were wrong today is cool and all but you were wrong two months ago! If you could tell us sooner, it would be appreciated it!
Traffic is up. actually. Apparently, you magically think you know the site’s numbers. Regardless, I am sure you have spent more time worrying about it than I have.
As for the site, we have been busy trying to make some of the changes more comfortable for readers who have expressed themselves about specific things they don’t like. In the meanwhile, there are a load of new features that should make the site far more useful as we move forward. If you don’t like it, my apologies. Oddly, you still seem to be here.
As for your complaint, Airstrike, I have no idea to placate someone who has an opinion of me like yours and it’s probably a fool’s errand to try. I’m pretty sure I didn’t bludgeon anyone over Inception’s gross. I had an opinion… one that included a pretty positive review and opinion on Inception. And then, I started defending myself. I was wrong about the final worldwide gross. Not the first time this summer, much less over years of trying to analyze the box office. I’d bow to your perfect record of insight if I knew who you were.
By the way, I was also wrong about Avatar, Toy Story 3, and Alice in Wonderland in much the same way. You might want to start cursing me out about that now too.
The one thing about Inception coverage that I did find aggravating is this weird “it’s a small, smart underdog” spin that was repeated a million times. It was, in fact, a $200 million movie with giant special effects… that was what sold the movie. AND it was a smart movie with a somewhat hyperactive third act and a dearth of emotion.
As for Finke, I don’t actually do anything like what she does. That doesn’t make me perfect… or even better than her by necessity. But we are quite different in the way we approach all of this. Anyway, no point in trying to use facts when someone is already committed to their idea of truth.
So please, feel free to try to beat me to death with the one or two things you thing I am vulnerable on. It’s a bit boring for me, but really, I asked for it. I have a blog and I allow comments… hundreds of thousands of them.
IO… do you really want a serious response to your comment? I can do that.
But before you answer, let me point out again… I do not “go off on anyone who disagreed with me.” I go off when commenters, like you, act like angry, mean-spirited assholes in some sort of overly personalized rage over an opinion on a movie.
I am a person with an opinion. I am not a crash test dummy here to be beaten on without restraint just because I allow people to post comments on my site.
I dunno. That early trailer for Tron legacy looked cheap and not exciting enough.
“The one thing about Avatar coverage that I did find aggravating is this weird “it’s a small, smart underdog” spin”
I’m guessing you mean Inception – that certainly wasn’t the Avatar spin.
Thanks, Foamy. Fixed.
David, seriously, the fact that you think you are not angry, mean spirited, or an asshole about things is easily the height of hilarity. It’s so freaking hilarious that the only way I can possibly conceive of you being completely oblivious to the above, has to do with you posting in such a rage, that you black out afterwards.
The fact that you can post this; “I do not ‘go off on anyone who disagreed with me’, I go off when commenters, like you, act like angry, mean-spirited assholes in some sort of overly personalized rage over an opinion on a movie”, and not see that that’s YOU TO A TEE really is astonishing. You really have no clue how you have been posting on this blog for years.
Not only do you get angry when we call you on your ridiculousness. You get mean-spirited about films and post snide little comments repeatedly about them. Do I have to remind you once again about the snide ass post you made about the Star Trek BD/DVD press release again? Do I have to remind you about your whole “MOMMA MIA IS THE MOST PROFITABLE FILM OF THIS YEAR” bs that you did for no other reason then to give crap to Iron Man and Batman.
I can go on but if anyone, and I MEAN ANYONE, is the overly personalized rage about a movie on this blog or the previous incarnation, IT’S YOU, IT’S ALWAYS BEEN YOU, and IT WILL REMAIN YOU. Why? Here’s why; “I am a person with an opinion. I am not a crash test dummy here to be beaten on without restraint just because I allow people to post comments on my site.”
No, you are a person who post his opinion on a blog with THE SAME 15 PEOPLE FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS AND WE KNOW ALL OF YOUR TRICKS! Seriously, we call you out on things, and it’s just not me David, because we know your tricks. The fact that you do not know your own freaking subtleties and trick after a DECADE of being your own freakin editor and publisher, is astonishing.
If you want to post and put the figurative smack down on films, then you better go find another blog to do it on. If you are going to do it here, if you are going to be snide about something succeeding when you thought it would fail or do considerably less, then be prepared to hit that wall at 45 miles per hour buddy because that’s how it is, and that’s how it’s going to be.
Some of you guys make me laugh. You sound like a couple of pissant kids in the sandlot. So Poland gets it wrong. So some of you want to make a big deal of him getting it wrong. And then some of you cry that he is rough on you when you say that he got it wrong.
How about this? Because this is the internet, and the pages are there for everyone to access, how about being mature of enough to be able to tell yourself of the facts.
“Predicting box office” is just a fancy phrase for guessing. And as Groucho once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
If you don’t like what Dave predicts, or you cheer when he is wrong, and you moan when he doesn’t admit it and you complain when he “forcefully bludgeon[s]” someone…
why not start up your own website? Or get a life and realize that there are more important things to tend to.
I visit here on a daily basis, agree, disagree, shake my head and laugh at how wrong I was on some things and then giggle when I am right… and move on. It’s just the internet for God’s sake.
I read David’s site pretty much every day, and he always strikes me as a person who is polite to you if you are polite to him, takes a joke if the joke is actually funny and will tell you an interesting story or fact about something if the subject arises. He is, in short, what I a perfect host. Meanwhile, there are people here spilling wine onto his carpet, others staggering around drunk or telling off-colour jokes, boors who think louder is better and some who tell him his wallpaper and furniture sucks and the food is either too hot, too cold, underdone, overdone or not kosher enough. Learn some manners.
Wait, correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t “Hunter Tremayne” the former “Ian Sinclair,” one of the most notorious Hot Blog trolls ever?
No, Lex. He wasn’t a troll. Just a fictional creation I came up with to give that insufferable Jeff McM a hard time.
If some people believe DP is an insufferable asshole, why bother coming here? There are tons of other places to discuss movies and box office. Why keep visiting and posting here? It also seems like some people are very thin-skinned and prone to hysterical overreaction. DP didn’t kill your dog or call your sister a whore. Why wouldn’t he express strong opinions on his blog? It’s his profession. Don’t like the opinions expressed or the person expressing them, don’t visit. I stopped reading CHUD and Wells and some others for similar reasons. There are lots of fish in the sea.
Saw The Town last night. Book was better. I enjoyed it as a well-made cops and robbers thriller. But two things didn’t work. The relationship angle just seemed to convenient how quickly they liked each other and the ending.
In fact the ending just pissed me off. It strike anyone else as completely phony?
Chris Cooper’s scene is the best in the movie. Hands down. I was more riveted watching him than the car chase.
Hopscotch, he’s the brains of the operation, who had a strategy, and that’s why it’s not phony. He knew where it was going and decided to put something in action to make sure he did what he did. You dig?
Pope, Paul, and Hunter: you all three went out of your way to defend that guy. Shocking, but you three miss the point. David thinks he is above the law and NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW. He goes on these long screeds about how most everyone in his profession sucks at this moment, or is doing something wrong at this moment, while totally ignoring his own short-comings. If you want to the be internet cop then act accordingly, and David Poland does not act accordingly for the job he seemingly believe he has.
Nevertheless, he’s wrong all the time but apparently his being wrong is nothing MAJOR but god forbid all the people he has a beef with acted the same way. We would never hear… figuratively… the end about it and that’s a problem he needs to address with himself or his shrink.
I get what you’re saying IO, but if you dislike how DP behaves that much, why do you come here? There are plenty of other places to talk movies.
There are times I think some people enjoy pointing out David’s mistakes for the same reason other people celebrate when the Dallas Cowboys lose.
I think that’s a reasonable assertion Joe.
I’m not defending DP; he doesn’t need my assistance. But with so many sites to choose from I don’t understand why people spend so much time here if they think DP is a cruel, hypocritical jerk.
Look if people want cruel, hypocritical, intolerant, vain, egocentric etc., all they have to do is go over to Hollywood Elsewhere, CHUD or hell, Deadline (actually, yes that is hell). If they want light and silly but still on topic, Movieline can work.
But by and large, I think blogs are built, operate and are received in the image of the blogger. For the most part they attract those like-minded… FOR THE MOST PART. Under that heading, Anne Thompson is probably the nicest site to visit because when people contribute (which alas is nowhere near enough), they do is in a very polite way.
Finally, ever notice the amount of interaction other bloggers do with one another? They are not all that sociable. Dave’s site has a LOT of contributors. He is good fun and from watching his video pieces over the years, I’d say he’s pleasant company for lunch.
“Do I have to remind you once again about the snide ass post you made about the Star Trek BD/DVD press release again? Do I have to remind you about your whole “MOMMA MIA IS THE MOST PROFITABLE FILM OF THIS YEAR” bs that you did for no other reason then to give crap to Iron Man and Batman.”
You explain yourself better than I could, IO.
Mamma Mia! Was, indeed, the most profitable film of that year. I panned the film viciously, as I recall. But the factual truth is the factual truth. Are the people who made Mamma Mia! not entitled to be given credit for their enormous and shocking success?
Your theories about my motives for what I write have nothing to do with my actual motives. And in your case, you are wrong about why I do what I do about 90% of the time. But you insist that you have some special insight. That’s obnoxious. But I have no power in persuading someone who is committed to believing something false, anymore than I can explain the Tea Party Movement as anything but moronic extremist rage.
It is absolutely true that I can be like a dog with a bone when it comes to “a fact” that I believe is being repeated endlessly and is false or misleading. And year after year, whether it is you or someone else, I get shit when I don’t simply embrace the lie that is popular to tell.
I may need to eat a shoe because they are doing GI Joe 2… but what you don’t know is that I was privy to a direct acknowledgment by someone in the first film’s finances that they lost their shirts. But, as sometimes happens, they are now going back to the well anyway, hoping, as people do, to cut the budget back and to get the same revenues or more this time around. It rarely works out that way, but hey, there you go.
My point is, I don’t control the world. And if I did, I would surely fail completely at times, just as every studio does, every marketer does, etc. Much of what I do is subjective… and I have NEVER suggested otherwise.
Again… you, IO, want to give me credit for Avatar and beat me to death for The Dark Knight… but I was more wrong about the gross of Avatar than I was about Dark Knight. I may have been the first to say it would land near Titanic, but I said it would be #2, which makes me over $1 billion off. But your standard for “right” and “wrong” is not remotely objective.
And that’s okay. I just don’t think I am an asshole for either disagreeing or defending myself against what become more and more personal attacks in these discussions.
Meanwhile, I will put my record of analysis about real issues in this industry, from unions to the transition into new media to the financial problems and successes of studios, etc, up against anyone’s. I write a lot of micro stuff, but I am a macro thinker and the micro is the support detail that builds into bigger ideas. I get plenty wrong on the micro side. But I am hard to beat on the macro side.
And really, I have stopped doing some of the stuff I used to do – like the summer charts or weekend box office prognostication – because it was impossible to improve upon. I don’t control release dates or marketing and my instincts, based on limited info, are good, but nothing close to factual. So why beat my head against a wall when I know that I am, to some degree, guessing weight at the carnival?
I have never been worried about pandering to the readers… or we’d do daily lists, a lot of T&A photos, and my entire staff would be calling people nasty names and showing bias based on what my sources want me to write in order to get attention.
Okay… so I am now completely sick of gazing at my navel. Time to try to get back to the real work, which in the end, is the only reason I choose to have this blog and this website. The politics can be a sugar rush or a crash, but the only reason to do this, really, is the movies and the people who make them. That’s the filet mignon.
God bless you Santa Texan! You truly understand and Paul; I don’t hate David. Look down and I will answer under David’s latest rant.
David, again, I do not think you are an asshole. I just think you pull some weird stuff from time to time and then act as if we should just ignore it, when it’s as obvious as a laser pointer on some dude’s face.
The problem you seem to have is thinking that I am the only one calling you out on your shenanigans, when I’m not. People call you out on your shenanigans all the time and they are not… me. No matter how much you like to think that I do not have a SPECIAL INSIGHT, you sort of miss that when someone such as yourself is so painfully obvious, YOU DO NOT NEED A SPECIAL INSIGHT BECAUSE IT’S THERE ON THE PAGE! The fact that you compare some of your readers to the Tea Party, not only is you trying to be cute with an insult, but also missing the whole HOW OBVIOUS YOU ARE part of my frustrations with you.
If you are going to go on for WEEKS, literal WEEKS, with a whole angle about Inception that’s not only biased but turns out to be wrong, you are going to draw our attention. Again, I am not the only who has a problem with you doing this stuff but you do it time and time and time again. Fix this and everything is all good in the hood.
IO, you seem like an okay person, but this constant “Someone is WRONG on the Internet!” business is a waste of energy.
Joey, again, it’s the same people who post here all the time and David seems to think that we are idiots for calling him out. That’s my biggest problem with him outside of the whole INTERNET COP DAVID POLAND thing but come on! He does this all the time and someone (and a lot of people have) needs to point it out to him.
Maybe I missed this up there somewhere in all the rants, Mr Poland, but mightn’t the issue with guesses being wrong about “Inception” be the item you posted before seeing the movie, which could have been interpreted as you saying you expected not to like it that much and were sick of the hype? Which was then followed by you liking it less than some folks thought you should and you underestimating its box office potential?
If I recall correctly, ‘Ian Sinclair’ emerged back during the
Hey DP, your ‘edit’ function still has some bugs to work out.
What I was saying is, ‘Ian Sinclair’ emerged during the debates over Hostel 2, where he posed as a psychologist and ‘diagnosed’ me with various personality disorders. If this blog was a party, ‘Ian Sinclair’ would be a boorish impostor seeking to transform a debate into a platform for his own preening, sadistic enjoyment – a hybrid of Oscar Wilde and Glenn Beck. Which doesn’t sound like ‘good manners’ to me.
And if you consider me ‘insufferable’, please tell me why, directly. I can handle it.
Chris, people can interpret anything I write any way I write it. The mega-controversy was over a tweet, not even an item. And I wrote what many people thought and ultimately, was reflected in many reviews… even positive ones like my own.
I never said I didn’t expect to like it that much. Never.
I happily stand by my review of Inception. I don’t think it was bent by any of my concerns about media overhype… and I don’t think any fair interpretation of the review could advance that argument. But like I keep saying, people can spin anything once they have made up their mind. 20% of America still thinks Obama is a Muslim.
Situations like The Inception Saga invariably happen when hyperventilation disallows anything less than Borg-like submission to the most vocal part of the hive mind. It is my job not to react to that and to react only to what I perceive on the screen.
Also in this case, a number of angry young men (not so young, very f-ing angry) took my tweet personally and not in the general way it was offered. Obviously, my concern over a general state of overstatement on the film cannot be about any one writer. But oh, the drama.
Every time I saw the preview for Devil, I wanted to see it less. And that preview was in front of the last four movies I saw. Not in front of The Town, thankfully.
Find me a place on the Internet where any “opinion leader” (Using the phrase loosely. No way in hell he gives me what opinion I should have) would give you this space and time to air your issues and respond to it instead of just ignoring you, banning you, or making you an object of ridicule.
So he’s WROOOOONG (Say it as Kevin Spacy as Lex Luthor if you’d like), and he won’t go to the village square for a stoning with his head down praying for God’s forgiveness because he was wrong about Inception and the Dark Knight and all that. So what? Why must this be such an endless crusade? What is he oppressing here? Do you want Peyton Manning to spend over a year dwelling about how much he sucked in last year’s Super Bowl in front of angry fans all the fricken time? To put it simply: What do you want from Dave? And put what you want from Dave in as simple terms as possible.
I’m not acting as a person who’s all on Dave’s side. I’m acting in my own damn interest. I want to talk some fucking movies here, and we’ve got good people who do that, and this shit constantly gets in the way with every other thread with a decent amount fo comments. So what’s going to make you happy here, if anything at all can do that? I’m at the point where, to quote Barry from High Fidelity, “Rob, I never thought I’d say it, but can I get back to work?”
And J-Leyd, I celebrate when the Cowboys lose because I’m a Steelers fan and I’m someone who picked them to lose in last week’s office pool.
Dave was wrong about Inception in a big way, but I’ll give the dude credit – he was REALLY right about The Hurt Locker last fall, when no one else was convinced it would even be nominated. I remember he took a lot of crap in October, I think, for saying that THL would sneak in and win Best Picture. I didn’t think it was possible, most of us didn’t, but goddam – the film pulled it off.
And he was REALLY wrong about Dreamgirls and Phantom winning big.
AND he called before ANY ONE else did that Avatar was going to be one of the biggest domestic grossers, ever – and weeks into the release, no prognosticators could still see it.
The guys does put his balls on the line, sometime….
…and The Simpsons movie….just sayin’ is all…