Weekend Estimates by Klady

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23 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

1. Proman says:

   January 9, 2011 at 10:19 am

   Go “How Do You Know” – awesome post opening multiplier. Gonna prove Poland’s won’t make 50 million worldwide sooo wrong.

   I am not sayng the film is not a bo failute but let’s not make it any more than it is.
2. movieman says:

   January 9, 2011 at 10:20 am

   You can stick a fork in “Fockers” cause it’s officially dead. At this point, it’ll be lucky to finish $100-million shy of “Fockers 2″‘s gross.
   Just goes to show that sometimes you just never know.
   Impressive how “Speech” has already accrued $33-million without ever hitting 1,000 screens. I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t reach $100-million before completing its domestic theatrical run.
   “Unstoppable” finally reaches $80-million. Hooray! That sure took long enough. Guess $100-million is an impossibility at this point.
   Another unimpressive debut for a Sony product. “Country Strong” will struggle to hit “How Do”‘s $30-million total. But at least it cost less. (A LOT less.) Guess Screen Gems should stick to B-horror and teen comedies.
   Funny how “The Tourist” and “Yogi” both keep chug-chugging along, though. Guess all those naysayers were precisely that. “Tourist” has a decent shot at a $75-million domestic gross, and “Yogi” could conceivably reach $100-million thanks to the dearth of new kid-friendly fare in the marketplace between now and “Gnomeo and Juliet” on February 11th.
   Gee, wouldn’t it have made sense to position December’s flood of kid movies a tad better? If, for example, “Gulliver’s Travels” had opened MLK weekend instead of Xmas Day, I bet it would have owned the matinee trade. And “Yogi” might have been another “Paul Blart” on that same January holiday weekend.
   Impressive widening for “Valentine,” but I don’t see a whole lot of mainstream/multiplex appeal. Has Weinstein officially pushed “Company Men” back to spring now that it’s proven to be an awards season non-player? A little distance between it, “Valentine,” “Speech,” “Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Grit,” etc. is probably a smart move.
3. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

   January 9, 2011 at 10:32 am

   Go How Do You Know? Is that a joke? A $120 million production (not even counting P&A) has made less than $29 million since its opening and will finish with barely over $30 million. That’s a massive failure that really can’t be overstated.

   Saw The Fighter yesterday. Loved every second of it. Just awesomely entertaining. I think Bale is remarkable and don’t think he went overboard or too “method.” Leo and Wahlberg are just as good though. It’s easy to write off the good guy, hero role, but damned if I wasn’t on the edge of my seat during the last fight. That I was pulling so hard for Ward is a testament to Wahlberg’s excellent work. Jack McGee is great as well.
4. hcat says:

   January 9, 2011 at 10:58 am

   Even if it was made for 10 million, the gross of HDYK with that cast and pedigree would still be disappointing.
5. a_loco says:

   January 9, 2011 at 8:46 pm

   K, so I’m pretty sure NO ONE was looking forward to Season of the Witch more than me (and I mean NO ONE). But the reason I wanted to see it so badly was precisely because of how godawful it looked. Based on the marketing materials, if SOTW went straight-to-DVD or premiered on SyFy, I would barely be surprised. Everything about it looked cheap and awful and I don’t think anyone is ever gonna find Cage convincing as a 14th Century Knight.

   So I guess the question is: How did it make more this weekend than a good deal of Nic Cage’s less questionable films? Like, how did this make more than, say, Next, which actually looked like it had a budget? Or The Weather Man, which actually looked like a real movie?

   Anyone?

   (BTW, The Weather Man is mad underrated. Great flick.)
6. IOv3 says:

   January 9, 2011 at 9:00 pm

   Loco; folks who wanted to see a new movie that’s not Oscar related is the most likely reason Season of the Witch made some sheckles this weekend. The NEW MOVIE thing is probably why The Green Hornet and The Dilemma will most likely kill it next week, because people want to see NEW MOVIES this time of year. Blame it on Taken and the Mall Cop.
7. Joe Leydon says:

   January 9, 2011 at 9:06 pm

   Didn’t Uwe Boll’s In the Name of the King open on this weekend just 3 years ago?
8. shillfor alanhorn says:

   January 9, 2011 at 9:16 pm

   You need to view the SEASON number in context. Most of the initial slate of Relativity-distributed releases are presumable dogs that Kavanaugh yanked back from distributors who were most likely going to bury them or pull a Weinstein and let them sit on the shelf indefinitely after they tested badly (SEASON OF THE WITCH has been on the shelf for over a year, TAKE ME HOME TONIGHT for over two, Universal happily unloaded DARK FIELDS). In that context, a $13 mil opening is probably more than he could have hoped for, and between that, foreign sales and his Netflix deal, he’ll probably recoup more than he would have otherwise.
9. Joe Leydon says:

   January 10, 2011 at 12:16 am

   RIP Peter Yates.

   http://movingpictureblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/rip-peter-yates-1928-2011.html
10. actionman says:

    January 10, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    In honor of Lex — WEATHER MAN POWER.
11. IOv3 says:

    January 10, 2011 at 2:28 pm

    Okay. Either David has had explosive indigestion all day or these DGA noms are blowing his mind. Come on Dave. Get off the john and bring forth some… AWARDS DISCUSSION! Tom HOOPER IS KING!
12. Scott Mendellson says:

    January 10, 2011 at 3:23 pm

    The Weather Man was (accurately) sold as a relatively glum character-driven drama, so mega-hit status was never in the cards. In fact, I remember being angered at the many critics who basically criticized Paramount for releasing this old-fashioned character drama instead of letting Paramount Vantage handle it, as if major studios should only release big budget tentpoles.

    And yes, Weather Man power indeed! Verbinski is truly one of the more talented filmmakers handling big budget stuff. I still feel that the Pirates films are vastly underrated as intricately plotted and character-driven franchises go. I watched them back-to-back-to-back last year, and they all held up very well and actually made sense (yes, they are a little bloated here and there, but woe be it for me to criticize too much ambition). But even aside from that, the guy gave us the hilariously sly Mousehunt, the above-mentioned The Weather Man, the flawed but interesting The Mexican, and the genuinely creepy and engaging The Ring. Say what you will about the Asian horror remake craze that followed (I’m a BIG fan of Salles’s Dark Water remake), but it’s not every filmmaker who can claim that he basically invented a whole sub-genre. Point being, I’m very much looking forward to Rango.

    I’ll gladly eat my words if I’m wrong, but I have a feeling we’re all going to feel nostalgic for Verbinski come May 20th when the guy who created such masterpieces as Memoirs of A Geisha and Nine tries his hand at a Pirates of the Caribbean film.
13. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    January 10, 2011 at 3:30 pm

    Not a fan of the Pirates movies (I’d argue they’re overrated if anything), but I am a huge, huge, huge fan of The Weather Man. Not surprised it didn’t make much $ but so grateful it got made and exists. Never get tired of watching it. Cage and Caine are sublime. Script is wonderful. Just a great little movie.
14. Scott Mendellson says:

    January 10, 2011 at 3:32 pm

    Sorry for the double post…

    For what it’s worth, Take Me Home Tonight was allegedly shelved/delayed not because it was bad, but due to studios’ discomfort with the copious cocaine use in the 1980s comedy.

    Grain of salt taken – http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2010/12/23/topher-grace-take-me-home-tonight-release-drug-use
15. Joe Leydon says:

    January 10, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    I’m celebrating Tom DeLay’s prison sentencing. Does this make me a bad person?
16. hcat says:

    January 10, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    Glad to hear about Delay, Sorry to hear about Yates. Didn’t Yates direct Orphans that you were speaking highly about a few days ago?

    I remember watching Eyewitness on FMC a few months ago and while the entirety of the movie lacked, there was always something interesting visually going on. Loved Bullit and the Friends of Eddie Coyle. Even enjoyed Mother, Juggs, and Speed though it has to be one of the worst movie titles in history.
17. movieman says:

    January 10, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    The late, great Alan Pakula directed “Orphans,” Hcat.
    Speaking of which: whatever became of Matthew Modine and Kevin Anderson? They both seemed destined for stardom once upon a time.
18. Joe Leydon says:

    January 10, 2011 at 5:29 pm

    Hcat: Movieman is correct. And speaking of Matthew Modine:

    http://movingpictureblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/matthew-modine-is-alive-and-well-but.html
19. hcat says:

    January 10, 2011 at 5:36 pm

    Sorry, I get Yates and Pacula sometimes mixed up. Perhaps I was mixing up my Finney movies (Finney and Yates did the Dresser right?).

    Yates is one of those strongmen from the sixties and seventies like Penn, Pacula, and Franklin Scheafer that sort of faded out and never officially entered the Pantheon of Greatness.
20. movieman says:

    January 10, 2011 at 6:18 pm

    My sentiments exactly, Joe (re: Modine being what seemed like the breakout star of “Birdy”).
    Y’know, back in the ’80s I actually thought Modine was going to become the next Jeff Bridges: a refreshingly naturalistic “Everyman” type actor whose consistently good taste in material and auteur directors (from John Sayles to Robert Altman, Tony Richardson, Alan Parker, Gillian Armstrong, Harold Becker, Stanley Kubrick, Alan Pakula, Jonathan Demme, John Schlesinger to Carroll Ballard) seemed to promise a career of remarkable longevity (and numerous Oscar bids).
21. Joe Leydon says:

    January 10, 2011 at 8:07 pm

    Movieman: As I said in that blog posting — sometimes the magic works, sometimes it doesn’t. For every time I’ve been right when predicting stardom for someone — I spotted Sylvester Stallone back in Capone and The Lords of Flatbush — I have been wrong a dozen or more times. And Hcat — must agree about Arthur Penn. Night Moves remains one of my favorite films of the 1970s. And I have an unreasonably high regard for Penn and Teller Get Killed.

    Of course, stardom is an evanescent thing. By sheer coincidence, I am working on a piece involving Breakfast at Tiffany’s, which reminds me: There actually was a time when George Peppard was a hot property. But do people under, say, 25 have any idea who he was? Indeed, except for Breakfast and The A-Team — is anything he ever did remembered by many people of any age?
22. Joe Leydon says:

    January 10, 2011 at 9:47 pm

    BTW: Speaking of Albert Finney — Charlie Bubbles has never been released on VHS in this country. It has never been released on DVD. Would it be too much to ask for a frickin’ Blu-Ray?
23. cadavra says:

    January 10, 2011 at 11:53 pm

    BANACEK?