Weekend Estimates by Klady (Analysis by Poland)
Apes, with much critical love out there, was right in the middle of the low end of the summer opening pack, between Green Lantern and X-Men: First Class. And thus, the hard part about opening in August. There is a glass ceiling, essentially. Some film may crack it some day. It used to be considered to be much lower. What was $45m five years ago is now $55m. And totals are pretty much capped, for originals, at $150m, unless you have a true phenom. There’s a similar glass ceiling on openings in the last two weeks of December… but the upside is wide open. The Apes end game will play out across the globe, though the film seems sure to be successful… the question is how successful?
As for The Change-Up, Cinemascore is reporting a majority female audience. In the parlance of the film, “What The Fuck?!?!” I’ve offered up my marketing issues before. Some people commented that they had seen harder materials for the film, but I assume they are talking about the red band trailer. I’m talking about what I saw on TV… and it wasn’t hard edged until this last week. It’s always possible that I’m not watching enough SpikeTV or Jersey Shore, but apparently, neither were college-aged boys. And to give critics credit for bringing down the film is laughable. Tell that to WB as they watch Crazy Stupid Love struggle to get to Bad Teacher numbers.
The Smurfs are looking like they will end up a bit behind Kung Fu Panda 2 domestically. Captain America is having stronger weekday results than Thor, which is why it is keeping pace with the blonde bombshell, in spite of weaker weekends. This puts it right in line with all the in-house Marvel films, except for Iron Man movies. Thor made money because of a surprisingly strong result overseas. Will Cap?
Cowboys & Aliens is the dud of the summer. It’s running about $20 million behind Green Lantern and falling further behind daily. $100m domestic isn’t likely and in spite of the stars, one still has to question whether there is much business in a US dud half-cowboy movie overseas.
Harry Potter should hit $350 million domestic by this time next week. Transformers, sometime in the week after that. They’ll be the only $260m+ grossers of this rather solid box office summer. There were thirteen $100m movies last summer… fifteen this year. Profits are spread out this summer… but what’s really missing are the number of money losers. Very short list this summer.
Midnight in Paris will pass $50 million in the next week or so. So will Friends With Benefits, which will outgross Will Gluck’s last film, Easy A, even if it doesn’t feel like a raging success.
In the art houses, Screen Gems is doing well with Attack The Block and Sony Classics with The Guard. The happy surprises of the weekend remain Bellflower and Gun Hill Road. And Searchlight has quietly squired Snow Flower & The Secret Fan past the million dollar mark.
I didn’t realize how limp [in PIXAR terms] the box office for CARS 2 was until I scanned this chart. Granted, I imagine they scored major revenue off things like toys and clothes, but a quick trip to boxofficemojo informed me that only BUG’S LIFE had a lower domestic gross.
Continuing on the Disney theme, does anyone know why that WINNIE THE POOH movie got a theatrical release? To show that they still do old school animation? It seems like this would have been a typical straight to dvd release or at least something getting a Feb/March theatrical instead of getting tsunamied during the summer tentpoles. I remember seeing several commercials for the film while watching ESPN and wondering who the hell was doing ad buys for this flick.
“Cowboys & Aliens is the dud of the summer. It’s running about $20 million behind Green Lantern and falling further behind daily. ”
The problem with you Poland is that despite putting your name on this chart as an analyst you are incapable to offer any real analysis. May I suggest getting as smarter, savier editor? You could benefit from some basic learning.
Case, in point. In comparing Cowboys and Aliens you missed the most cruicial point of all when it comes to staying power – legs. Fact is Green Lantern declined a significantly steeper 66.1% in it’s second week (and another 63.6) versus estimated 56.8% on Cowboys & Aliens (which is a lot closer to par on this genre).
This is why star power does count a bit on this film. It may be slower but it sure as heck going to last LONGER. than Green Horner (which is also more expensive).
So don’t count your chickens just yet and don’t announce anything as THE dud of the summer. This isn’t analysis. It’s your typical BS.
Is Cowboys really going to lose that much more money than Green Lantern, or are Lantern’s international prospects just that much better?
Proman: David should get a smarter editor? You mean someone who can spell savvier?
Still feel like the title “dud of the summer” belongs to Green Lantern. A reportedly $200m budget with $115M domestic and thus far only $40M international. I think more was riding on GL to succeed in terms of launching a franchise than Cowboys. GL opened bigger but fell 66% in it’s 2nd weekend and another 63% in it’s 3rd. C&A has fallen 56%, and the story is still being written. Admittedly it’s still a bomb, but in my mind, not the biggest of the summer.
Xmen was also a bomb domestically, but saved by international. It always is a surprise to me how much this well reviewed franchise always implodes in its 2nd weekend and has some of the worse legs ever. In it’s 9 weekends of release it has fallen by over 50% in 5 of those weekends.
HP 7.2 is the success story of the summer. Largest opening weekend, domestic and international box office champ, and basically a very shrewd move to have a two parter finale. Part 7 will add more than $2B to the HP coffers, end on the highest of notes, and if enough noise is made, much like the noise for Ian McKellan in LOTR, Alan Rickman could get some support for a nomination and it would be the academy’s nod to a very profitable series that did well for the entire movie industry.
I was writing my comment when Proman posted his so a ditto is in order.
Proman/Maxim is simply ignorant. He/She wants to attack and that’s pretty much his/her game.
I’m not counting chickens, I’m counting dollars. This notion that a smaller % drop isn’t substantially reflected in the gross that the % is being dropping from is just putting blinders on. No question that GL dropped like a stone… and C&A still did over $2 million less in their second weekends. And while C&A faced Apes this weekend, GL faces f-ing Transformers in its second weekend.
C&A may catch up with GL’s 3rd weekend box office number… but will still be $25m or so behind GL’s domestic gross without the juice to catch up.
There is absolutely an argument to be made that Green Lantern and Cowboys & Aliens will be co-flops of the summer. (Not that a troll like Maxim/Proman is interested in discussing actual ideas. Bulldog is fine.) The biggest factor is the lack of an answer to the foreign. That could make a difference.
For whatever percentages you want to throw at it, C&A will not gross as much domestically as Green Lantern.
And for what it’s worth, the failure of C&A is much more significant for Universal than GL is for the stable team at WB. As you noted, Bulldog, they had Potter this summer and their overall numbers will be fine, even with a write down for one other movie. Universal had Bridesmaids and Fast Five to make things feel better, but unless C&A ends up being Prince of Persia, the team will still be under the gun until they make Battleship and Bourne reboot hit big.
attack the block is distributed by Screen Gems
Apologies… fixed now.
(THAT’s what I need an editor for!)
My definition of dud is not just about gross, but really gross as it relates to budget and yes, even a bit of expectation Dave. While C&A ‘probably’ won’t do $115M, Bridesmaids did not do Thor numbers, but it was the more successful movie. Super 8 was more successful than Xmen. Duds, to me, are inherently defined by their budget.
Now the idea of trying to name the #1 and #2 dud positioning for C&A and GL is really a splitting hairs exercise, but C&A seemed like an expensive experiment, one that you have noted several times n your summer forecasts. GL was part of a more popularly known universe, had more name recognition, plus a more popular concept, so the hill to climb was not as steep as C&A. And yes, it did face Trannies in it’s 2nd weekend, but it barely doubled it’s opening weekend for it’s final gross, so it never recovered.
The story on C&A is still being written, and we’ll see how foreign comes up, even though I don’t think it will be very good. C&A needed an American success story to help sell it international, and now they don’t have that. I agree you with that Universal needed this to be a hit. Maybe they should have used the True Grit anniversary to debut another western and use the legs of Christmas to keep this one afloat.
BD, how exactly is First Class a bomb? We live in a TOTAL BOX OFFICE world now and it’s total box office keeps it from being a bomb. Seriously, that’s weird placement of the word BOMB, BD.
Well, we can discuss “popularly known universes” for a while. Marvel has established a model and a gross level for their universe. DC has not. So by your standard there, First Class is a much bigger disappointment than Green Lantern. Everything there is debatable. WB basically tried to do an Iron Man with the not-terribly box office Ryan Reynolds as their Downey. But the formula didn’t work.
C&A was The Director Of Iron Man meets Indiana Jones meets James Bond vs Aliens. Also didn’t work.
When I wrote that phrase about C&A, I wasn’t actually doing a down-to-the-wire analysis. For me, it feels more like the home run effort while GL feels more like a movie aiming for Marvel numbers, piled in between Marvel movies, whose budget got a bit out of control. Pick your poison.
@JS: Bomb re Xmen may be a bit harsh, I agree.
Two things to JPS/IO’s point, Bulldog. You have to believe the budgets being put out in the media on these movies. Iffy proposition. And secondly, you need to realize that marketing costs the same on most of these high profile summer films, whether the film is bigger or smaller.
If the difference between those two films is $125m worldwide when theatrical is all counted, their earning profiles will be pretty even in theatrical. But First Class should, at that point, have a stronger post-theatrical profile and will likely be a more profitable film. That is, unless you really believe there is a $110m price difference between the production costs of the movies.
Well, there is something else to consider: Might Cowboys & Aliens have longer legs than other summer flicks simply because, as a Western, it’ll appeal to an older audience? You know: Those fossils Sanj is always dissing? The folks who don’t rush out to see a movie on opening weekend? I realize that 3:10 to Yuma was a much more conventional Western, but didn’t it wind up evidencing much more staying power than anyone expected?
Of course, the flip side of the argument is: Once a movie has been branded a “flop,” I think it has an effect on potential audiences. I know of at least two over-50 folks (guys) who don’t follow b.o. wars very closely, but who have heard that C&A is a flop — and therefore are less inclined to see it. Maybe this has something to do with Americans always wanting to support winners, but…
Purely for the sake of accuracy, Green Lantern faced off against Transformers 3 in its second weekend. Cars 2 (arguably also a strong competitor where kiddie matinee competition is concerned) opened the weekend after Green Lantern. As for which flopped worse, gotta give it to GL. C&A, while being the far worse movie, only endangered itself, while GL endangered the entire DC Comics brand.
But, Joe, these guys who have heard it’s a flop and are, thus, not going — isn’t that most likely because they mean “flop” as in “it’s bad,” not “flop” as in “it’s doing poorly at the box office?” Sure, some good movies that people would enjoy do get the stench of box office failure attached to them, but that’s not what is going on with “Cowboys and Aliens.”
Actually, both of these people are Western fans — but as far as I can tell, they’ve heard the movie is a flop in the box-office sense, and that is why they’re disinclined to go. Of course, I suppose this raises an interesting point: Have we reached the point where most people (civilians, at least) automatically equate “flop” or “disappointment” with “lousy movie,” regardless of the quality of the film?
Admittedly, the rumored budgets are all I have to go on Dave. I just think more was riding on GL’s success as an independent brand and definitive planning was being undertaken for a franchise. C&A was only a test case potential for a possible new franchise.
@Scott: C&A being the far worse movie is of course your opinion, but I had a better time at C&A than GL. I liked the relationships between Ford/Beach, Ford/Craig, Ford/little boy, and Ford/Indian Chief. I liked the fact that they made an effort to maintain this as a western with western sensibilities, instead of bringing modern idioms to the old west, which is also what I believe most people were expecting. They wanted an updated western and were let down when Favreau and Downey did it so well with Iron Man.
I know I’m definitely in the minority with my view but I had a better time with the relationships of C&A than I did with the other CA, Captain America, which I also liked, but I enjoyed less than even Thor.
Dave made a comparison between C&A and Super 8 which is very apt. There were gaps of logic in both films, but I really enjoyed seeing Ford, liked the performances, and to me this was a very non-conventional story with relationships and themes that you don’t see playing out in your normal summer fare. maybe fall would have been better.
Well Joe my mom, who is my reference for “average moviegoer” equates “flop” with “lousy movie”. She does know that flop means It made little money at the box office but she assumes the reason for that is because it is a bad movie. I think this the same for most other average moviegoers.
I don’t get the “franchise” issue on Green Lantern.
Fantastic Four, Daredevil, Elektra, and Ghost Rider didn’t kill Iron Man and only FF did the kind of business the Inc-Hulk/Thor/Cap level of Marvel biz.
WB hasn’t done well with the DC properties. Indecisive, throwing scripts around like toilet paper, uninspired.
The fact that GL has been the only non-Batman/non-Superman hero movie from WB/DC doesn’t make GL responsible for carrying the franchise. It’s not GL’s fault that Jonah Hex was barely released. GL didn’t hire Bryan Singer without a net or McG or Zack Snyder, for that matter.
I get that Aquaman, Wonder Woman, and Flash are scary as standalone movie ideas. But Marvel did okay with f-ing Thor. THOR!!!! People went.
Of course, there is still the problem that no one has really gotten past 3 films for any character with one style and made it work. So… maybe there should be more films made with some lower budgets and see what sticks.
The other issue, Joe… aliens.
Bye bye, old people.
Does anyone truly know the international rollout schedule for GL? Is $45M thus far reflective of it just bombing big time, or that it has not been opened in most major territories yet?
From my experience in talking to folks and reading what some people write, the perception of a film as a box office flop automatically equates to “bad movie” for most people. Why? Because people are fucking stupid.
Which, following up on Chris’ comment, is why we have these stupid fights over slotting on opening weekends. #1 is a marketing tool, heavy on the tool.
bulldog… no Japan, Australia, France, and some others yet… so the number could more than double… or not.
Did Woody Allen put a hit on Steven Kay? How come no b.o update on MiP this week.
And Searchlight has quietly squired Snow Flower & The Secret Fan past the million dollar mark.
Goes to show when you deliver product to an underserved demographic (i.e., Asian-Americans). “SF&TSF” got some of the worst reviews in Searchlight’s recent history, yet still managed to cross the million-dollar threshold. On the other hand, “Another Earth”–a much better reviewed Searchlight July release–will probably never even reach the Wayne pic’s present cume during its entire theatrical run.
It seems as though maybe LionsGate should have been a little bolder in their opening-weekend screen count for the well-reviewed arts-ploitation title, “Devil’s Double.” On the other hand, Weinstein is very smartly, slowly (and successfully) rolling out “Sarah’s Key” (dig those new CNN spots!), despite middling reviews.
Sometimes ya just never know.
I had a blast at Devil’s Double. Absolutely should have been a first-weekend wide release. The rest of the crowd at the Boston multiplex where I saw it was dudes in their 20s.
bulldog: Steven Kay is presumably in an undisclosed location with LexG.
It’s Steven Kaye you should be concerned about.
If “Steven Kay” was indeed LexG, I’m shocked. Lex is funny.
Steven Kaye is probably waiting for MiP to hit the magic $50 million before his next effusive update.
You’re right, I’m not sure why I assumed Lex was Kay. I hope Lex doesn’t stay retired too long. Stuff like this:
“Also LANDIS is a GOD. But, yeah, always kind of weird that Friedkin and Bogdanovich tend to come up in tandem so much, if only because one is a gritty Mann-esque crime movie nihilistic with the most demonic worldview ever put to cinema, and the other is an ascot-rocking screwball-throwback Old Hollywood connoisseur who if you gave him a go on six movies about ANYTHING, all six would probably entail flappers, musical numbers and fast-talking farce.
And those two guys are a half-decade before Landis, who falls into that Joe Dante, John Milius, John Carpenter, Walter Hill realm of dudes who had THE BEST 1976-1988 EVER… amazing how they were ALL guns blazing, one after another, auteur maniacs for precisely those 12 years or so, then all kind of stuck to their guns for diminishing budgets and returns on repeat mode thereafter (or in Milius’ case– God, what DOES Milius do on a day to day basis? Near as I can tell he’s worked about six days since 1990.)”
Priceless, and basically inimitable.
I can only speak for myself, of course, but if I want to see a particular movie, I don’t give a shit about its box office. I might end up seeing it sooner than later if it looks like it’ll be doing a fast fold, but labeling it a “flop”–in either interpretation–won’t frighten me away. I’d like to think this is not a unique circumstance.
Cadavra – you read box office blogs. You are excepted from the argument.
Right now, the response on the Cowboys & Indians magazine Facebook page seems to indicate that the majority of “old people” like Cowboys & Aliens, or are at least ready to give it a chance. Of course, I guess it depends on how we define “old people.” And BTW: In the months leading up to the release of Joel and Ethan Coen’s True Grit, it appeared readers were actively hostile to the very idea of a remake. But once it was released…
http://www.facebook.com/cowboysindians
“Well Joe my mom, who is my reference for ‘average moviegoer’ equates ‘flop’ with ‘lousy movie’. She does know that flop means It made little money at the box office but she assumes the reason for that is because it is a bad movie. I think this the same for most other average moviegoers.”
But then the average movie renter at Blockbuster will go and pick out some absolute utter SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT without a second thought about the box office, critical reception, Cinemascore, etc.
So….
Despite losing another 72 venues, MiP’s takings were down just 14.3%, by far the smallest drop in the top 20. It dropped one place on the chart – to 13th – despite the presence of 2 new wide releases, and was just $100,000 behind Cars 2 (which was showing on twice the number of screens). Quite wonderful.
And $50 million by August 18, I’d say.
Meanwhile, its worldwide performance has been no less impressive. It’s still powering along, with $86.6 million in total, and plenty of countries still to come. Here’s how it’s performed so far, along with the totals for Vicky Cristina Barcelona in the relevant territories:
Argentina – $2,643,158 after 5 weekends (VCB – $772,228)
Belgium – $996,543 after 7 weekends (VCB – $1,151,236)
Brazil – $7,556,765 after 7 weekends (VCB – $2,533,455)
France – $15,700,000 (approx.) after 12 weekends (VCB – $14,995,044)
Norway – $1,038,610 after 7 weekends (VCB – $515,000 approx.)
Spain – $10,358,970 after 12 weekends (VCB – $9,862,445)
Taiwan – $43,581 after 1 weekend (VCB – $102,328)
Uruguay – $187,535 after 4 weekends (VCB – $210,453)
As I’ve pointed out in previous entries, it’s doing especially well in South America – in fact, it was in 2nd place at the Uruguayan box office last weekend, just behind Harry Potter and ahead of the debuting Captain America. Plus it had the highest per screen average there ($6,582).
All in all, it’s already the 40th highest-grossing film worldwide this year. Magnifique!
Finally, an updated list of the vanquished:
Winnie the Pooh
Bad Teacher
Larry Crowne
Monte Carlo
Mr Popper’s Penguins
Green Lantern
Super 8
X-Men First Class
Kung Fu Panda 2
Hangover 2
Pirates of the Caribbean
Bridesmaids
Priest
Thor
Jumping the Broom
Something Borrowed
Fast Five
Water For Elephants
Tyler Perry’s Blah Blah Blah
Rio
Soul Surfer
Tangled
The big stories of the weekend to me are Harry Potter 8 surging to number 3 all-time worldwide (number 1 sequel all-time) and Trannies 3 passing Pirates 4…with its sights set on finishing 5th all-time worldwide.
So having longer legs is akin to vanquishing the competition?
Weird. Your worldview makes me squint with incredulity.
The world according to Kaye list movies that have opened prior to MiP. Tangled opened last November for christ sake.
Longer, shorter legs. Oy.
Funny thing is that the achievement absolutely deserves celebration. But Mr Kaye’s obsessiveness makes one want to throw old tomatoes at it.
His world view makes me want to turn math into something tangible and hit him with it. Like throw it right at his head.
Mr. Kaye is having a lark. And laughing at us for taking him even a teeny bit seriously.
Now I’m starting to wonder if whoever does sanj also does Steven Kaye.
I’m currently negotiating with the person behind sanj to sell my screen name for six figures.
C&A failed to connect with the masses for the same reasons Firefly/Serenity failed. They simply do not want these two genres, sci-fi and western, mixed up.
I was curious and looking up boxoffice performance to date and the “reported” budget numbers for the movies mentioned above. Interestingly, looking at non-summer movies revealed Mars Needs Moms has a WW gross of $39M with a “reported” budget of $150M. However limited budget information is, I believe we have found 2011’s bomb (so far).
I would be surpised if C&A had enough positive WOM to rebound at home. I liked it but it’s not the type of thing I could see anyone raving about or seeing more than once. I don’t deny any of the positive things I said about it last weekend but it hasn’t stuck with me much at all and it’s only been a week since i’ve seen it. At the time I said that it was better than GL but, honestly if I had the choice, I would rather rewatch that again and would gladly sit through and support the sequel, which at the moment (based on one viewing) is not the case with C&A. So I retract my earlier Hot Blog statement.
Firefly failed because Fox had a terrible marketing campaign for it, debuting it on Fridays and then showing the second episode first. I caught up to it on DVD and it’s one of my favorite series ever. Serenity did decent business, and how many TV series that were cancelled after less than a full season have been able to get a movie?
Yes, Jason… Mars is the biggest financial bomb of the year so far.
Not a summer movie.
A quick scan of sci-fi western films reveal Back to the Future III and Wild Wild West and Indy 4, perhaps not critical darlings but relative financial successes.
And it also reveals one of the greatest anime series (and movie too) of all time, Cowboy Bebop.
What part of Indy 4 was a western?
Minus Indy 4…
Wild Wild West cost almost as much as it grossed worldwide. Not a relative financial success.
BttF III was the threequel and by far the least successful of the 3 films.
Well, I meant “relative to other flops that were mentioned”….but fair enough.
My only point was that sci-fi westerns can work if they are done well…any genre specific rule about box office is doomed to be wrong once the right movie comes along.
i don’t spend hours thinking about how much movies made .. i usually stay out of it.
DP really should make a game out of this movie money .. if your movie numbers beat DP’s – you win a bluray player.
also i’m waiting for a Rachael Leigh Cook DP/30 for Josie and the Pussycats – that movie had a lot of important messages .
Actually, Sanj…
http://www.movingpictureshow.com/archives/mpsJosie.htm
I tried to make that happen, Sanj. The movie was pre-DP/30. But there was a chance to do one with the filmmakers when another film came up and that was a primary reason I was trying to do a sit with them.
hey DP – that movie was ahead of it’s time – all that product placement and now it’s happening on mtv and music
videos
check out all the product placements in Avril’s video
for What the Hell
http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2011/01/25/What-the-Hell-Avril-Lavigne-Ventures-Into-Product-Placement.aspx
there were 70 product placements in the movie – maybe more and most of the companies are still around ..
Rosario Dawson is still acting – Tara Reid – not so much
.. a lot of smaller actors in the movies are still acting…plus that Carson Daily guy is still around..
maybe get Rosario Dawson for a DP/30 about the movie ..
.. my guess is she forgot about it … its easy to
forget when your working with Quentin Tarantino – Tony Scott – Robert Rodriguez and other big name directors ..
I actually gave “Josie” 3 1/2 stars when I reviewed it in ’01.
But, truth be told, I can barely remember anything about it today.
P.S.= Why are we even discussing it?
Because of Sanj. He’s the straw that stirs the drink.
Even the Hot Blog has been outsourced!
Sanj’s more of a swizzle stick, Joe.